Thanks, Heather for this important Letter. There’s so much to unpack here. Most importantly, regarding the issue in Russia...“No one knows for certain where this is heading as I’m writing Friday evening. But there is no doubt most people, whether they will admit it publicly or not, are relieved that Joe Biden, surrounded by competent advisers, is at our country’s helm at this moment.”-Joyce Vance, Civil Discourse Substack
Yes. I am relieved that Biden is in charge here, but terrified that this situation is so destabilizing to Russia, a nuclear power, that we don't know what will happen next. Apparently Putin has spoken, which one of the links someone posted below an expert was saying that Putin would not speak until the coup is averted. However, Putin did not seem to be saying that a coup is averted, and many are saying that Prigozhin is going after the head of defense Shogui and everything I am reading is that he has not been stopped yet. However, I also read that it seems Putin fled out of Moscow to his place elsewhere in Russia. I cannot find that article now. I have been going back and forth between English language and German press. Germany is not saying that much yet. Since all information from Russian leaders is suspect, I don't know who is telling the truth. Moscow has declared a state of emergency, and Putin has claimed that anyone who goes against the military is an enemy of the state. I wonder what the Russian people are thinking right now. It is morning. My daughter is about to arrive in Vienna on a night train from Paris. I already saw that this story heads the Vienna Morning paper, although they are not saying that much. In the German Tagesspiegel they are also saying that Prigozhin is saying he will march with his troops to Moscow unless Shoigui and Geressimov come to him. The Taggespiegel says that, "On Saturday morning, a video also became public showing Prigozhin in Rostov talking with Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov and Deputy Head of Russian Military Intelligence Vladimir Alekseev." You can see the twitter videos with English captions, even though the paper is in German. https://www.tagesspiegel.de/internationales/liveblog/russischer-geheimdienst-ermittelt-gegen-wagner-chef-wegen-militarputsch-4309180.html
Due to the chaos of the situation, it is hard to find out what is going on. I am hoping some enterprising citizens in Russia, if there are any who dare, will be filming what they can of the situation. I hope there is still some free press in Russia that can find out what is going on. Putin's speech does not sound like he is in full control of the situation. It might have been a sleepless night for him. It sounds like soldiers are jumping ship. If they turn on their leadership what enforcement does the FSB have? Are they 100% behind this military action? How is their wealth tied to this? Does everyone support Putin's glory at what seems to be a non winnable war. At least not with the objectives Putin has laid out. Biden backing Ukraine has proved to be more formidable than Putin realized.
The Guardian and Le Monde report that Putin addressed the nation this morning (Saturday), talked of treason, said the Russian people and the country have been stabbed in the back. Moscow is going into anti-terrorist mode, no large gatherings, restricted movement, identity checks, "temporary suspension of communication services", if necessary. Could include internet and telephone conversations.
Yes. I am reading that too in German papers. Right now the USA and the EU are in communication on this and treating it like an internal Russian problem. Putin is reaching out to other dictators for his support. China, Belarus, Turkey seem to be on his side. He has not reached out to India from what I know, and with Modi in the US with Biden that would be awkward. India is neck in neck with China for population size. China has the largest military in the world, but India and then the US are right behind. So, China would not want the USA and India militarily allied. Russia does not want that either. So far, Modi, like Erdogon negotiates with both sides. I am curious what the people of India are thinking about the relationship between the USA and India. Last year I read a lot of hostility towards the USA in comments in Indian papers. Clearly Prigozhin does not have the size of military that Russia does. The question is with the low morale of the military will all of them remain on Putin's side, or will some side with Prigozhin seeing their life as soldiers being better under him.
Putin has to find a way to destroy Prigozhin's Telegraph feed. Perhaps that is why he surrounded the Wagner headquarters in Moscow. However, I think that ship has sailed.
As of this morning, Colonel Vindman stated that Prigozhin's troops are halfway to Moscow, but that his biggest worry is that there are "strategic" bases on the way, which, if captured, raise the stakes dramatically. Putin may be on the way out, but if Prigozhin succeeds, the world will be less safe.
'less safe' than under Putin? Is that your point, Jerry? I did not read any positive comments about Prigozhin, did you? How can you tell one is worse than the other?
I am relaying Vindman's live analysis. He was asked by Smercornish on CNN what he would advise the president in this situation, and he said that loss of control of strategic weapons is a nightmare scenario that's been monitored for years. If nuclear weapons get into the hands of an oligarch that's angling for personal survival, then existing controls on their use by Russia, and our ability to monitor them, will be compromised. I have no idea who is worse and didn't intend to imply that I know the answer to that.
My pie-in-sky hope is that Putin is removed, and the experienced soldier, who saw just a fraction of what a capable foe can do to Russian military using just some of NATO's weapons, tactics and intelligence, simply tells his fellow Russians that Russia can't win, and sets up a 5 year plan to get back to democratic elections. Navalny could have the time to heal and then run in a fair election.) A boy can dream, too.
Thank you for your clarification, Jerry. This likely instability in Russia cannot be reassuring. I'm sure that our country's intelligence is doing everything it can.
Prigozhin is basically a ruthless thug and a criminal, AND don't forget (as HCR reminds above) he was at the center of the 2016 Russian disinformation campaigns that worked for T***p's candidacy. T***p would more than likely love nothing more than for Prigozhin to remove Putin from the picture so T***p would no longer be beholden to Putin for whatever "goods" he has on him. You have 3 pretty disgusting people, T***p, Putin, and Progozhin in the limelight right now.
Do I seem to have forgotten anything, Bruce? We may be heading to a most dangerous situation, perhaps, Russia becoming a rogue state. I need not tell you about the consequences of nuclear, cyber, chemical...weaponry out of control.
I was responding more to Jerry above. I totally agree with your comment. NEITHER Putin nor Prigozhin are good outcomes. I think we all agree on that. One isn't any better than the other, though Prigozhin is pretty disgusting lest anyone think him unseating Putin would be a "win". Plus, as HCR mentioned, I was reminding about Prigozhin's T***p connection. Amazing how all these disreputable people seem to stick together.
I think that you are correct - Putin has been blackmailing TFG for years with photographs of hotels trysts and other things. In front of Putin, TFG is an obsequious pile of dog dung (apology to my canine fellow travelers.)
Less safe because Russia will be destabilized and under the rule perhaps of a military dictator, which has never boded well for anyone. A military dictator that was both willing to give information to the Ukrainian Secret service about Russian troop positions if the Discord leak is to be believed, or to have a better funded, trained, and equipped military which hopefully will redirect their energies to something more useful, he is certainly doing a lot to keep African countries destabilized, or he might use full might against Ukraine and then who knows who else. Making new predictions on the nuclear threat with someone that we don't have a history on in that position. That is scary either way.
Linda, I think that Putin is rediscovering what happens when you hang around with poisonous snakes—it’s only a period of time before you are bitten (or you kill the snake after it’s outlived its usefulness).
Russia's defense minister and military leaders are under attack. Putin is facing challenges as never before.
'Mr. Prigozhin vowed that what he said was his 25,000-strong mercenary force would go on the offensive against the Russian defense ministry, though he said that the actions were not a “military coup.”
'The Russian authorities responded by charging Mr. Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary force, with “organizing an armed rebellion.” A Russian general urged Mr. Prigozhin’s fighters not to “play into the hands” of an enemy that he said was waiting for Russia’s internal political situation to worsen.'
'Video footage showed armored vehicles from the Russian military in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, near the war’s front line in Ukraine where Mr. Prigozhin’s fighters had been operating.'
'Additional videos circulating online and verified by The New York Times showed dozens of soldiers getting out of military vehicles and pointing their guns at the compound that forms the military command post in southern Russia.'
'Early Saturday, the governor of the Rostov region asked residents to stay in their homes, saying that the authorities were “doing everything necessary” to ensure their safety. The governor of the nearby Voronezh region, north of Rostov, also said that a convoy of military equipment was moving along a local highway. It was not clear which direction it was moving.'
'As the events played out in Russia, Ukraine’s armed forces posted three words on Twitter: “We are watching.”
Who is Prigozhin?
'The St. Petersburg tycoon has for years been part of a charmed circle of Russian oligarchs with close ties to President Putin. In 2018, he was one of 13 Russians indicted by a federal grand jury in the United States for interfering in the 2016 American election.'
'Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary force, a shadowy private military company, first emerged during Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. It has since exerted influence on behalf of Moscow in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali and Mozambique.'
'Wagner is important to the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine and led the recent assault on the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. And Mr. Prigozhin, who has recruited fighters from prisons, has been widely seen as a symbol of wartime Russia: ruthless, shameless and lawless.'
Why is Prigozhin angry?
'Mr. Prigozhin has in recent months launched accusations at Russia’s military leadership. He blames Russian generals for failing to provide his forces with enough ammunition and for ignoring soldiers’ struggles.'
'The Kremlin tolerated his broadsides for months, even as some analysts said that Mr. Prigozhin was poised to turn his new prominence into broader political influence, possibly threatening Mr. Putin’s grip on power.'
'Later on Saturday morning, Mr. Putin addressed the situation in Rostov-on-Don during a brief speech on state television, saying that “decisive actions” would be taken to stabilize it. He said the functioning of military and civilian institutions in the southern Russian city of a million people had “essentially been blocked.”
“Actions that divide our unity are in essence defeatism before one’s own people,” Mr. Putin said.' (NYTimes)
'Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed. Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike.[1]'
'Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Commanders’ Council made the decision to stop “the evil brought by the military leadership” who neglect and destroy the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers.[2] Prigozhin urged the Russian people not to resist, to remain calm, remain in their homes, and warned that Wagner will “deal” with those who destroyed Russian soldiers before returning to the frontlines in Ukraine after restoring justice for all. Prigozhin also notably accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner and claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel are prepared to act.[3] Prigozhin later posted an audio message qualifying his previous statements and claiming that there is no “coup,” only a “march for justice.”[4]
'Kremlin newswire TASS reported that security measures have been strengthened in Moscow and that Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) special police (OMON) and special rapid response (SOBR) units have been alerted of the situation.[5] Russian sources posted footage reportedly showing military equipment moving through the streets of Moscow.[6] TASS also reported that Russian military personnel and law enforcement have set up military posts and checkpoints near the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, and BBC’s Russia Service reported that Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) employees and SOBR units have set up roadblocks along the Moscow-Voronezh-Rostov highway.[7] A Russian milblogger also claimed that the “Grom” special forces detachment of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) has additionally activated.[8]'
'The FSB and Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee have both opened cases against Prigozhin.[9] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov notably stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed and is aware of the situation.[10] The emergency activation of the domestic security forces and the Kremlin’s direct response suggest that the Kremlin was very likely not aware of, and is explicitly opposed to, Prigozhin’s actions. (ISW, Institute for the Study of War Blog)
Is this the beginning of the great unwinding of the Russian Empire? Diane Francis has a recent letter that addresses the possibility that Russia may see areas like "Outer Mongolia" peel away from the Federation. Look at a map of Russia. It is huge. It is way beyond manageable. The enormous variety of Asian and various other ethnic and religious groups may see a Moscow completely obsessed with Wagner, the Ukrainian failure and all their internal political struggles. They may view this a chance to break away from their Slavic slave masters who have treated them as sub humans and cannon fodder for a war they don't understand or care about.
Thank you, Bill. I am aware of Diane Francis' background as a commentator (Canada) primarily about the financial sector. I suggest in addition to The New York Times and The Washington Post, the Institute for the Study of War, Agence France-Presse, AP News, Ukrainian Journal, Politico, VOX, BBC, Reuters and Twitter.
This is a big one that Putin was not prepared for.
It seems to me that, for the past several months, Putin has been using the Ukrainians to break the Wagner Group - and vice-versa. Clearly, it has not worked. The Ukrainians, if anything, are stronger, and Wagner, though weakened, is still a force to be reckoned with. I also believe that by this August, there will be no more Wagner Group in Russia. I will not mourn them.
Will/can the Ukrainians take advantage of this gap in the center of the Russian line? They have proven to be resilient, nimble fighters and even more nimble strategists. But they have suffered terribly. My real hope is that this major setback will force the Russians into real peace negotiations.
“...by August there will be no more Wagner Group in Russia”. That makes me nervous because Wagner is notoriously dangerous no matter where they reside. Putin found them useful (until, apparently, he didn’t). They puppet-master a swath of African Countries. Could they set up their strength there and influence the control of a resource rich continent more than they do now? Either way, Wagner spells trouble for the world, I feel.
THIS IS AN UPDATE ABOUT SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA
'Forces led by Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin advanced in the direction of Moscow on Saturday, moving north from the Voronezh region to the Lipetsk region, which is roughly 250 miles away from the Russian capital. President Vladimir Putin, citing a threat to his nation, said he had ordered the military to quash the ‘rebellion’ led by Prigozhin, who on Friday called for Russians to join a campaign against Russia’s military leadership.'
'Prigozhin claimed early Saturday to have taken control of the Russian military command base in Rostov-on-Don in the south. The governor of the Voronezh region further north said a “counterterrorist operation” by the military there was underway, hours before the governor of the Lipetsk region said Wagner forces were moving across the territory. The U.K. Defense Ministry said Wagner units were “almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow.”
Hi Fern, BBC has been tracking GPS points on the highway leading to Moscow. Major and steady movement toward Moscow. Cannot say for certain who is on the move.
( interesting use of technology, though Kruschev's great grandaughter, living in Moscow, on with Michael Smerconish this morning, said she was amazed she had a signal as the government was blocking internet, About 3 min. After she said that her signal went down!!!!!)
Joe Biden is the most accomplished political figure in our country since Bill Clinton. That's not intended as a knock on President Obama or Hillary Clinton. After all, Obama chose Biden to be his vice president and passed the American Healthcare Act, and Hillary was the victim of years of character assassination and lies that would likely have destroyed any politician. Biden is simply more experienced, more connected, and has gotten things done. We are very lucky to have Biden as our President right now.
David See. Dave Fake News reports that Trumpian highway users are boycotting the newly opened interstate claiming that Libs purposefully infected it with a dusty Socialism Powder that might possibly cause them to rethink their ideology
DFN reporter Dave heard one say, “I’m not taking any chances driving that road; my mind is right and that’s all there is to it” (use the Cool Hand Luke accent)
Hardly-- the republicans are destroying themselves with complete obedience to their sick orange maniac and his minions. Turning on one another with idiotic, immature behavior. Uroboros to all of them.
Thanks for introducing me to the term for this. I had to look up “ouroboros”. Wikipedia includes a lovely illustration from a medieval illuminated manuscript:
Yes—it is a great description of what the party of sedition is doing to itself. Loved the mention of “rat snake” in the ourobouros definition.. so appropriate. Thanks for the spelling it has been a few years since I have had to use this word!
In the media the Republicans appear to be winning. They sure are loud and proud.
Where it counts the Democrats continue to make huge progress.
Election victories in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Significant wins in the States as well during the 2022 Midterms. trump's MAGA candidates defeated in the Midterms 2022. A Democrat trifecta in Michigan and Wisconsin. Federal Judges overturning the draconian States' legislative anti-LGBTQ and abortion laws. Watch the Democratic House of Representatives members. The Democrats are stopping the MAGA crazy stunts cold. The Durham testimony was so brutal due to the Democrats relentless pounding on John Durham it was painful (almost) to watch.
I am just getting warmed up on my reality check of your "Owning the libs" sentence. I will, however, cede the floor to Simpon Rosenberg's Hopium Substack. Please read him carefully.
I could care less about the liberal media and its record.
We are involved in winning elections and preserving the Democratic function in this Republic. Anything else is culture wars. The Anti-Democracy forces in this Country want to deflect, distract and waste time on the culture war junk. And that includes the liberal or conservative media.
Just got up, coffee not doing it's job yet, eyes still a little blurry, so at first glance I read your comment as "And they're falling for that tool." (applies to your favorite
I'm sure they did. After consuming an adequate (two cups) of strong coffee, I think I need a Latin translation for "In caffeine there is clarity" (or in my case, consciousness).
I can just imagine, if The Doubly-Indicted One was POTUS, he'd be there in a red MAGA hard hat, posing with a shovel and blaming the whole incident on Hunter Biden's laptop.
I would love to see a Dem ad campaign showing “real Americans” getting the work done as compared with petty congressional squabbles over fake impeachments. The ad copy writes itself
Did you paraphrase Stephen Stills' "For What it's Worth" to start tonight's Letter on purpose, or is it such a part of our culture that it just automatically inserts itself at appropriate times?
Thanks, Heather for this important Letter. There’s so much to unpack here. Most importantly, regarding the issue in Russia...“No one knows for certain where this is heading as I’m writing Friday evening. But there is no doubt most people, whether they will admit it publicly or not, are relieved that Joe Biden, surrounded by competent advisers, is at our country’s helm at this moment.”-Joyce Vance, Civil Discourse Substack
Yes. I am relieved that Biden is in charge here, but terrified that this situation is so destabilizing to Russia, a nuclear power, that we don't know what will happen next. Apparently Putin has spoken, which one of the links someone posted below an expert was saying that Putin would not speak until the coup is averted. However, Putin did not seem to be saying that a coup is averted, and many are saying that Prigozhin is going after the head of defense Shogui and everything I am reading is that he has not been stopped yet. However, I also read that it seems Putin fled out of Moscow to his place elsewhere in Russia. I cannot find that article now. I have been going back and forth between English language and German press. Germany is not saying that much yet. Since all information from Russian leaders is suspect, I don't know who is telling the truth. Moscow has declared a state of emergency, and Putin has claimed that anyone who goes against the military is an enemy of the state. I wonder what the Russian people are thinking right now. It is morning. My daughter is about to arrive in Vienna on a night train from Paris. I already saw that this story heads the Vienna Morning paper, although they are not saying that much. In the German Tagesspiegel they are also saying that Prigozhin is saying he will march with his troops to Moscow unless Shoigui and Geressimov come to him. The Taggespiegel says that, "On Saturday morning, a video also became public showing Prigozhin in Rostov talking with Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov and Deputy Head of Russian Military Intelligence Vladimir Alekseev." You can see the twitter videos with English captions, even though the paper is in German. https://www.tagesspiegel.de/internationales/liveblog/russischer-geheimdienst-ermittelt-gegen-wagner-chef-wegen-militarputsch-4309180.html
Here is what Politico has to say.
https://www.politico.eu/article/prigozhin-says-has-taken-control-of-rostov-on-don/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=alert&utm_campaign=Wagner%20boss%20Prigozhin%20claims%20control%20of%20Rostov-on-Don%2C%20menaces%20Moscow&utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=ddc3672c01-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_06_24_07_33&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-ddc3672c01-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D
Due to the chaos of the situation, it is hard to find out what is going on. I am hoping some enterprising citizens in Russia, if there are any who dare, will be filming what they can of the situation. I hope there is still some free press in Russia that can find out what is going on. Putin's speech does not sound like he is in full control of the situation. It might have been a sleepless night for him. It sounds like soldiers are jumping ship. If they turn on their leadership what enforcement does the FSB have? Are they 100% behind this military action? How is their wealth tied to this? Does everyone support Putin's glory at what seems to be a non winnable war. At least not with the objectives Putin has laid out. Biden backing Ukraine has proved to be more formidable than Putin realized.
The Guardian and Le Monde report that Putin addressed the nation this morning (Saturday), talked of treason, said the Russian people and the country have been stabbed in the back. Moscow is going into anti-terrorist mode, no large gatherings, restricted movement, identity checks, "temporary suspension of communication services", if necessary. Could include internet and telephone conversations.
Not "liking" this but grateful for your reporting.
Resistance is futile!! I always wanted to say that.....
Hm, could be fun. It might depend on the circumstances.
That sounds like The Borg on Star Trek, Next Generation! Scary!
What do you mean? Resistance by whom, to what?
“Stabbed in the back”. By a mercenary army leader. Well, DUH!
What about "treason"? DUH!
Yes. I am reading that too in German papers. Right now the USA and the EU are in communication on this and treating it like an internal Russian problem. Putin is reaching out to other dictators for his support. China, Belarus, Turkey seem to be on his side. He has not reached out to India from what I know, and with Modi in the US with Biden that would be awkward. India is neck in neck with China for population size. China has the largest military in the world, but India and then the US are right behind. So, China would not want the USA and India militarily allied. Russia does not want that either. So far, Modi, like Erdogon negotiates with both sides. I am curious what the people of India are thinking about the relationship between the USA and India. Last year I read a lot of hostility towards the USA in comments in Indian papers. Clearly Prigozhin does not have the size of military that Russia does. The question is with the low morale of the military will all of them remain on Putin's side, or will some side with Prigozhin seeing their life as soldiers being better under him.
Good analysis.
Thanks, Linda, for your excellent analysis--
. . . and, like they did during the coup in '91, Russian television might start airing Tchaikovsky's ballet Swan Lake on an endless loop.
Putin has to find a way to destroy Prigozhin's Telegraph feed. Perhaps that is why he surrounded the Wagner headquarters in Moscow. However, I think that ship has sailed.
Excellent update.
As of this morning, Colonel Vindman stated that Prigozhin's troops are halfway to Moscow, but that his biggest worry is that there are "strategic" bases on the way, which, if captured, raise the stakes dramatically. Putin may be on the way out, but if Prigozhin succeeds, the world will be less safe.
'less safe' than under Putin? Is that your point, Jerry? I did not read any positive comments about Prigozhin, did you? How can you tell one is worse than the other?
I am relaying Vindman's live analysis. He was asked by Smercornish on CNN what he would advise the president in this situation, and he said that loss of control of strategic weapons is a nightmare scenario that's been monitored for years. If nuclear weapons get into the hands of an oligarch that's angling for personal survival, then existing controls on their use by Russia, and our ability to monitor them, will be compromised. I have no idea who is worse and didn't intend to imply that I know the answer to that.
I hope they blow each other up and Alexei Navalny takes power! Hey, a girl can dream, right?
Gayle, so happy to have happened upon a brilliant solution. Thank you.
My pie-in-sky hope is that Putin is removed, and the experienced soldier, who saw just a fraction of what a capable foe can do to Russian military using just some of NATO's weapons, tactics and intelligence, simply tells his fellow Russians that Russia can't win, and sets up a 5 year plan to get back to democratic elections. Navalny could have the time to heal and then run in a fair election.) A boy can dream, too.
Thank you for your clarification, Jerry. This likely instability in Russia cannot be reassuring. I'm sure that our country's intelligence is doing everything it can.
Prigozhin is basically a ruthless thug and a criminal, AND don't forget (as HCR reminds above) he was at the center of the 2016 Russian disinformation campaigns that worked for T***p's candidacy. T***p would more than likely love nothing more than for Prigozhin to remove Putin from the picture so T***p would no longer be beholden to Putin for whatever "goods" he has on him. You have 3 pretty disgusting people, T***p, Putin, and Progozhin in the limelight right now.
Do I seem to have forgotten anything, Bruce? We may be heading to a most dangerous situation, perhaps, Russia becoming a rogue state. I need not tell you about the consequences of nuclear, cyber, chemical...weaponry out of control.
I was responding more to Jerry above. I totally agree with your comment. NEITHER Putin nor Prigozhin are good outcomes. I think we all agree on that. One isn't any better than the other, though Prigozhin is pretty disgusting lest anyone think him unseating Putin would be a "win". Plus, as HCR mentioned, I was reminding about Prigozhin's T***p connection. Amazing how all these disreputable people seem to stick together.
I think that you are correct - Putin has been blackmailing TFG for years with photographs of hotels trysts and other things. In front of Putin, TFG is an obsequious pile of dog dung (apology to my canine fellow travelers.)
Less safe because Russia will be destabilized and under the rule perhaps of a military dictator, which has never boded well for anyone. A military dictator that was both willing to give information to the Ukrainian Secret service about Russian troop positions if the Discord leak is to be believed, or to have a better funded, trained, and equipped military which hopefully will redirect their energies to something more useful, he is certainly doing a lot to keep African countries destabilized, or he might use full might against Ukraine and then who knows who else. Making new predictions on the nuclear threat with someone that we don't have a history on in that position. That is scary either way.
Linda, I think that Putin is rediscovering what happens when you hang around with poisonous snakes—it’s only a period of time before you are bitten (or you kill the snake after it’s outlived its usefulness).
That is two poisonous snakes together, which is two too many!
There's been a lot of knowledgable video on Twitter, Telegram and YouTube if you can cut through the noise to find it.
Russia's defense minister and military leaders are under attack. Putin is facing challenges as never before.
'Mr. Prigozhin vowed that what he said was his 25,000-strong mercenary force would go on the offensive against the Russian defense ministry, though he said that the actions were not a “military coup.”
'The Russian authorities responded by charging Mr. Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary force, with “organizing an armed rebellion.” A Russian general urged Mr. Prigozhin’s fighters not to “play into the hands” of an enemy that he said was waiting for Russia’s internal political situation to worsen.'
'Video footage showed armored vehicles from the Russian military in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, near the war’s front line in Ukraine where Mr. Prigozhin’s fighters had been operating.'
'Additional videos circulating online and verified by The New York Times showed dozens of soldiers getting out of military vehicles and pointing their guns at the compound that forms the military command post in southern Russia.'
'Early Saturday, the governor of the Rostov region asked residents to stay in their homes, saying that the authorities were “doing everything necessary” to ensure their safety. The governor of the nearby Voronezh region, north of Rostov, also said that a convoy of military equipment was moving along a local highway. It was not clear which direction it was moving.'
'As the events played out in Russia, Ukraine’s armed forces posted three words on Twitter: “We are watching.”
Who is Prigozhin?
'The St. Petersburg tycoon has for years been part of a charmed circle of Russian oligarchs with close ties to President Putin. In 2018, he was one of 13 Russians indicted by a federal grand jury in the United States for interfering in the 2016 American election.'
'Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary force, a shadowy private military company, first emerged during Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. It has since exerted influence on behalf of Moscow in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali and Mozambique.'
'Wagner is important to the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine and led the recent assault on the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. And Mr. Prigozhin, who has recruited fighters from prisons, has been widely seen as a symbol of wartime Russia: ruthless, shameless and lawless.'
Why is Prigozhin angry?
'Mr. Prigozhin has in recent months launched accusations at Russia’s military leadership. He blames Russian generals for failing to provide his forces with enough ammunition and for ignoring soldiers’ struggles.'
'The Kremlin tolerated his broadsides for months, even as some analysts said that Mr. Prigozhin was poised to turn his new prominence into broader political influence, possibly threatening Mr. Putin’s grip on power.'
'Later on Saturday morning, Mr. Putin addressed the situation in Rostov-on-Don during a brief speech on state television, saying that “decisive actions” would be taken to stabilize it. He said the functioning of military and civilian institutions in the southern Russian city of a million people had “essentially been blocked.”
“Actions that divide our unity are in essence defeatism before one’s own people,” Mr. Putin said.' (NYTimes)
'Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed. Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike.[1]'
'Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Commanders’ Council made the decision to stop “the evil brought by the military leadership” who neglect and destroy the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers.[2] Prigozhin urged the Russian people not to resist, to remain calm, remain in their homes, and warned that Wagner will “deal” with those who destroyed Russian soldiers before returning to the frontlines in Ukraine after restoring justice for all. Prigozhin also notably accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner and claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel are prepared to act.[3] Prigozhin later posted an audio message qualifying his previous statements and claiming that there is no “coup,” only a “march for justice.”[4]
'Kremlin newswire TASS reported that security measures have been strengthened in Moscow and that Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) special police (OMON) and special rapid response (SOBR) units have been alerted of the situation.[5] Russian sources posted footage reportedly showing military equipment moving through the streets of Moscow.[6] TASS also reported that Russian military personnel and law enforcement have set up military posts and checkpoints near the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, and BBC’s Russia Service reported that Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) employees and SOBR units have set up roadblocks along the Moscow-Voronezh-Rostov highway.[7] A Russian milblogger also claimed that the “Grom” special forces detachment of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) has additionally activated.[8]'
'The FSB and Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee have both opened cases against Prigozhin.[9] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov notably stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed and is aware of the situation.[10] The emergency activation of the domestic security forces and the Kremlin’s direct response suggest that the Kremlin was very likely not aware of, and is explicitly opposed to, Prigozhin’s actions. (ISW, Institute for the Study of War Blog)
Fern, Have you read Diane Francis?
Is this the beginning of the great unwinding of the Russian Empire? Diane Francis has a recent letter that addresses the possibility that Russia may see areas like "Outer Mongolia" peel away from the Federation. Look at a map of Russia. It is huge. It is way beyond manageable. The enormous variety of Asian and various other ethnic and religious groups may see a Moscow completely obsessed with Wagner, the Ukrainian failure and all their internal political struggles. They may view this a chance to break away from their Slavic slave masters who have treated them as sub humans and cannon fodder for a war they don't understand or care about.
Read this:
https://dianefrancis.substack.com/p/chinas-russia?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Thank you, Bill. I am aware of Diane Francis' background as a commentator (Canada) primarily about the financial sector. I suggest in addition to The New York Times and The Washington Post, the Institute for the Study of War, Agence France-Presse, AP News, Ukrainian Journal, Politico, VOX, BBC, Reuters and Twitter.
This is a big one that Putin was not prepared for.
Thank you, Fern! Impressive and hopeful!
Thank you, Laurie. Those sources are solid, journalistic and reliable.
Remarkable sources. Thanks.
This was cross posted from Lucid. Scary...very scary stuff.
https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/reposted-how-putin-may-die?utm_source=cross-post&publication_id=1227278&post_id=130733984&isFreemail=true&utm_campaign=300941&utm_medium=email
Thx Bill. Useful links to 'Special Intelligence' & RB-G's panoramic context.
Shades of 1917? History does repeat itself from time to time.
Anyone else expecting purges in Russia ... as soon as control is attained?
It's a Russian national tradition.
Sadly, true.
Ohhhhhhh
It seems to me that, for the past several months, Putin has been using the Ukrainians to break the Wagner Group - and vice-versa. Clearly, it has not worked. The Ukrainians, if anything, are stronger, and Wagner, though weakened, is still a force to be reckoned with. I also believe that by this August, there will be no more Wagner Group in Russia. I will not mourn them.
Will/can the Ukrainians take advantage of this gap in the center of the Russian line? They have proven to be resilient, nimble fighters and even more nimble strategists. But they have suffered terribly. My real hope is that this major setback will force the Russians into real peace negotiations.
I think if there is to be a peace, it must be on Ukraine's terms.
“...by August there will be no more Wagner Group in Russia”. That makes me nervous because Wagner is notoriously dangerous no matter where they reside. Putin found them useful (until, apparently, he didn’t). They puppet-master a swath of African Countries. Could they set up their strength there and influence the control of a resource rich continent more than they do now? Either way, Wagner spells trouble for the world, I feel.
Wagner Group. Outsourcing you military power gets to be tricky. Has earmarks of an apocalyptic screenplay.
By Xmas no more Russian Federation. IMHO of course.
Thank you for your research and sharing!
Thank you, Liz, for reading and support.
Fern, I so appreciate your research and your writings.
Ally, we're teammates. I'm always happy when we visit. Thank you.
Fern, thank you so much for your work here. You’ve filled in some of my knowledge gaps.
Thank you, Camilla, for following this very important story -- glad I could help.
THIS IS AN UPDATE ABOUT SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA
'Forces led by Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin advanced in the direction of Moscow on Saturday, moving north from the Voronezh region to the Lipetsk region, which is roughly 250 miles away from the Russian capital. President Vladimir Putin, citing a threat to his nation, said he had ordered the military to quash the ‘rebellion’ led by Prigozhin, who on Friday called for Russians to join a campaign against Russia’s military leadership.'
'Prigozhin claimed early Saturday to have taken control of the Russian military command base in Rostov-on-Don in the south. The governor of the Voronezh region further north said a “counterterrorist operation” by the military there was underway, hours before the governor of the Lipetsk region said Wagner forces were moving across the territory. The U.K. Defense Ministry said Wagner units were “almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow.”
Thanks for staying on top of this and sharing, Fern - I truly value your input!
That goes both ways, Gayle. Thank you.
Hi Fern, BBC has been tracking GPS points on the highway leading to Moscow. Major and steady movement toward Moscow. Cannot say for certain who is on the move.
( interesting use of technology, though Kruschev's great grandaughter, living in Moscow, on with Michael Smerconish this morning, said she was amazed she had a signal as the government was blocking internet, About 3 min. After she said that her signal went down!!!!!)
We saw that!
Yes, Carol, the regime has been cutting access to Google as part of its suppression of information.
https://open.substack.com/pub/joycevance/p/candidates-and-court-calendars?r=9vmv5&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Joe Biden is the most accomplished political figure in our country since Bill Clinton. That's not intended as a knock on President Obama or Hillary Clinton. After all, Obama chose Biden to be his vice president and passed the American Healthcare Act, and Hillary was the victim of years of character assassination and lies that would likely have destroyed any politician. Biden is simply more experienced, more connected, and has gotten things done. We are very lucky to have Biden as our President right now.
Dems getting things done: "“I-95 is reopening. And it’s ahead of schedule.”"
Republicans, meanwhile, are Owning the Libs.
One half of me laughed out loud to that, David See, the other wants to cry. So exhausted with their crap.
David See. Dave Fake News reports that Trumpian highway users are boycotting the newly opened interstate claiming that Libs purposefully infected it with a dusty Socialism Powder that might possibly cause them to rethink their ideology
DFN reporter Dave heard one say, “I’m not taking any chances driving that road; my mind is right and that’s all there is to it” (use the Cool Hand Luke accent)
First smile of the am....thanks Dave. If this is so, MAGAs would have a hard time driving anywhere.
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bravo, Dave!
Dave, it that is true, it is hilarious!!!! The MAGA puppets will believe ANY conspiracy theory!
Less traffic! 😎
Hardly-- the republicans are destroying themselves with complete obedience to their sick orange maniac and his minions. Turning on one another with idiotic, immature behavior. Uroboros to all of them.
Yes, even a girl fight between Gangrene and Gunslinger Barbie. it will be interesting when Jack Smith indicts for January 6th and we see who flipped.
Thanks for introducing me to the term for this. I had to look up “ouroboros”. Wikipedia includes a lovely illustration from a medieval illuminated manuscript:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ouroboros
Yes—it is a great description of what the party of sedition is doing to itself. Loved the mention of “rat snake” in the ourobouros definition.. so appropriate. Thanks for the spelling it has been a few years since I have had to use this word!
In the media the Republicans appear to be winning. They sure are loud and proud.
Where it counts the Democrats continue to make huge progress.
Election victories in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Significant wins in the States as well during the 2022 Midterms. trump's MAGA candidates defeated in the Midterms 2022. A Democrat trifecta in Michigan and Wisconsin. Federal Judges overturning the draconian States' legislative anti-LGBTQ and abortion laws. Watch the Democratic House of Representatives members. The Democrats are stopping the MAGA crazy stunts cold. The Durham testimony was so brutal due to the Democrats relentless pounding on John Durham it was painful (almost) to watch.
I am just getting warmed up on my reality check of your "Owning the libs" sentence. I will, however, cede the floor to Simpon Rosenberg's Hopium Substack. Please read him carefully.
The mainstream (liberal) media has a losing streak of more than three years now:
* Consistent worries about violent attacks presaged the 2020 election
* Predicted close election of 2020 disintegrated w the 7,000,000 vote Biden win
* Experts prediction for 2022 hinged on inflation, forebode a Repubs sweep
* Kansas and Alaska in 2022 wins by liberals foretold a Dems win in 2022 (unseen by liberal mainstream media)
* Furthermore, Wisconsin liberal judge win presages rising liberal voting wave
I could care less about the liberal media and its record.
We are involved in winning elections and preserving the Democratic function in this Republic. Anything else is culture wars. The Anti-Democracy forces in this Country want to deflect, distract and waste time on the culture war junk. And that includes the liberal or conservative media.
And they’re failing at that too!! 😁
Just got up, coffee not doing it's job yet, eyes still a little blurry, so at first glance I read your comment as "And they're falling for that tool." (applies to your favorite
Repub tool in the very full tool box).
What is the lack of caffeine version of "In vino veritas" ("in wine there is truth")?
Did the ancient Romans have caffeine yet? Maybe tea from trade with the far east? Didn’t coffee originate in the “New” World, along with chocolate?
I'm sure they did. After consuming an adequate (two cups) of strong coffee, I think I need a Latin translation for "In caffeine there is clarity" (or in my case, consciousness).
LOL
And telling us to support Putin...
David, and aren't they good at it??? /s
I can just imagine, if The Doubly-Indicted One was POTUS, he'd be there in a red MAGA hard hat, posing with a shovel and blaming the whole incident on Hunter Biden's laptop.
He would probably throw out rolls of paper towels to the workers, offer to buy the lunch and then leave!
Make that toilet paper and you have me too.
Speaking of lunch, do you think he footed the bill at that Cuban restaurant for his adoring fans post-indictment?
I read he skipped out without paying--Surprise!!!
HAMBERDERS AND COFEVE FOR ALL!!
That is the truth! Or his taxes!
Miselle--And Hilary's emails. Which of course were one Hunter's laptop.
So proud of the real America!
I would love to see a Dem ad campaign showing “real Americans” getting the work done as compared with petty congressional squabbles over fake impeachments. The ad copy writes itself
Did you paraphrase Stephen Stills' "For What it's Worth" to start tonight's Letter on purpose, or is it such a part of our culture that it just automatically inserts itself at appropriate times?
"There's something happening here
But what it is ain't exactly clear
There's a man with a gun over there
Telling me I got to beware"
Stephen Stills/Buffalo Springfield 1967
Stop! Children, what's that sound, everybody look what's going down!
Battle lines bein' drawn, nobody's right when everybody's wrong...