Russia's defense minister and military leaders are under attack. Putin is facing challenges as never before.
'Mr. Prigozhin vowed that what he said was his 25,000-strong mercenary force would go on the offensive against the Russian defense ministry, though he said that the actions were not a “military coup.”
Russia's defense minister and military leaders are under attack. Putin is facing challenges as never before.
'Mr. Prigozhin vowed that what he said was his 25,000-strong mercenary force would go on the offensive against the Russian defense ministry, though he said that the actions were not a “military coup.”
'The Russian authorities responded by charging Mr. Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary force, with “organizing an armed rebellion.” A Russian general urged Mr. Prigozhin’s fighters not to “play into the hands” of an enemy that he said was waiting for Russia’s internal political situation to worsen.'
'Video footage showed armored vehicles from the Russian military in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, near the war’s front line in Ukraine where Mr. Prigozhin’s fighters had been operating.'
'Additional videos circulating online and verified by The New York Times showed dozens of soldiers getting out of military vehicles and pointing their guns at the compound that forms the military command post in southern Russia.'
'Early Saturday, the governor of the Rostov region asked residents to stay in their homes, saying that the authorities were “doing everything necessary” to ensure their safety. The governor of the nearby Voronezh region, north of Rostov, also said that a convoy of military equipment was moving along a local highway. It was not clear which direction it was moving.'
'As the events played out in Russia, Ukraine’s armed forces posted three words on Twitter: “We are watching.”
Who is Prigozhin?
'The St. Petersburg tycoon has for years been part of a charmed circle of Russian oligarchs with close ties to President Putin. In 2018, he was one of 13 Russians indicted by a federal grand jury in the United States for interfering in the 2016 American election.'
'Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary force, a shadowy private military company, first emerged during Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. It has since exerted influence on behalf of Moscow in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali and Mozambique.'
'Wagner is important to the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine and led the recent assault on the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. And Mr. Prigozhin, who has recruited fighters from prisons, has been widely seen as a symbol of wartime Russia: ruthless, shameless and lawless.'
Why is Prigozhin angry?
'Mr. Prigozhin has in recent months launched accusations at Russia’s military leadership. He blames Russian generals for failing to provide his forces with enough ammunition and for ignoring soldiers’ struggles.'
'The Kremlin tolerated his broadsides for months, even as some analysts said that Mr. Prigozhin was poised to turn his new prominence into broader political influence, possibly threatening Mr. Putin’s grip on power.'
'Later on Saturday morning, Mr. Putin addressed the situation in Rostov-on-Don during a brief speech on state television, saying that “decisive actions” would be taken to stabilize it. He said the functioning of military and civilian institutions in the southern Russian city of a million people had “essentially been blocked.”
“Actions that divide our unity are in essence defeatism before one’s own people,” Mr. Putin said.' (NYTimes)
'Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed. Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike.[1]'
'Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Commanders’ Council made the decision to stop “the evil brought by the military leadership” who neglect and destroy the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers.[2] Prigozhin urged the Russian people not to resist, to remain calm, remain in their homes, and warned that Wagner will “deal” with those who destroyed Russian soldiers before returning to the frontlines in Ukraine after restoring justice for all. Prigozhin also notably accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner and claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel are prepared to act.[3] Prigozhin later posted an audio message qualifying his previous statements and claiming that there is no “coup,” only a “march for justice.”[4]
'Kremlin newswire TASS reported that security measures have been strengthened in Moscow and that Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) special police (OMON) and special rapid response (SOBR) units have been alerted of the situation.[5] Russian sources posted footage reportedly showing military equipment moving through the streets of Moscow.[6] TASS also reported that Russian military personnel and law enforcement have set up military posts and checkpoints near the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, and BBC’s Russia Service reported that Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) employees and SOBR units have set up roadblocks along the Moscow-Voronezh-Rostov highway.[7] A Russian milblogger also claimed that the “Grom” special forces detachment of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) has additionally activated.[8]'
'The FSB and Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee have both opened cases against Prigozhin.[9] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov notably stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed and is aware of the situation.[10] The emergency activation of the domestic security forces and the Kremlin’s direct response suggest that the Kremlin was very likely not aware of, and is explicitly opposed to, Prigozhin’s actions. (ISW, Institute for the Study of War Blog)
Is this the beginning of the great unwinding of the Russian Empire? Diane Francis has a recent letter that addresses the possibility that Russia may see areas like "Outer Mongolia" peel away from the Federation. Look at a map of Russia. It is huge. It is way beyond manageable. The enormous variety of Asian and various other ethnic and religious groups may see a Moscow completely obsessed with Wagner, the Ukrainian failure and all their internal political struggles. They may view this a chance to break away from their Slavic slave masters who have treated them as sub humans and cannon fodder for a war they don't understand or care about.
Thank you, Bill. I am aware of Diane Francis' background as a commentator (Canada) primarily about the financial sector. I suggest in addition to The New York Times and The Washington Post, the Institute for the Study of War, Agence France-Presse, AP News, Ukrainian Journal, Politico, VOX, BBC, Reuters and Twitter.
This is a big one that Putin was not prepared for.
It seems to me that, for the past several months, Putin has been using the Ukrainians to break the Wagner Group - and vice-versa. Clearly, it has not worked. The Ukrainians, if anything, are stronger, and Wagner, though weakened, is still a force to be reckoned with. I also believe that by this August, there will be no more Wagner Group in Russia. I will not mourn them.
Will/can the Ukrainians take advantage of this gap in the center of the Russian line? They have proven to be resilient, nimble fighters and even more nimble strategists. But they have suffered terribly. My real hope is that this major setback will force the Russians into real peace negotiations.
“...by August there will be no more Wagner Group in Russia”. That makes me nervous because Wagner is notoriously dangerous no matter where they reside. Putin found them useful (until, apparently, he didn’t). They puppet-master a swath of African Countries. Could they set up their strength there and influence the control of a resource rich continent more than they do now? Either way, Wagner spells trouble for the world, I feel.
THIS IS AN UPDATE ABOUT SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA
'Forces led by Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin advanced in the direction of Moscow on Saturday, moving north from the Voronezh region to the Lipetsk region, which is roughly 250 miles away from the Russian capital. President Vladimir Putin, citing a threat to his nation, said he had ordered the military to quash the ‘rebellion’ led by Prigozhin, who on Friday called for Russians to join a campaign against Russia’s military leadership.'
'Prigozhin claimed early Saturday to have taken control of the Russian military command base in Rostov-on-Don in the south. The governor of the Voronezh region further north said a “counterterrorist operation” by the military there was underway, hours before the governor of the Lipetsk region said Wagner forces were moving across the territory. The U.K. Defense Ministry said Wagner units were “almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow.”
Hi Fern, BBC has been tracking GPS points on the highway leading to Moscow. Major and steady movement toward Moscow. Cannot say for certain who is on the move.
( interesting use of technology, though Kruschev's great grandaughter, living in Moscow, on with Michael Smerconish this morning, said she was amazed she had a signal as the government was blocking internet, About 3 min. After she said that her signal went down!!!!!)
Russia's defense minister and military leaders are under attack. Putin is facing challenges as never before.
'Mr. Prigozhin vowed that what he said was his 25,000-strong mercenary force would go on the offensive against the Russian defense ministry, though he said that the actions were not a “military coup.”
'The Russian authorities responded by charging Mr. Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary force, with “organizing an armed rebellion.” A Russian general urged Mr. Prigozhin’s fighters not to “play into the hands” of an enemy that he said was waiting for Russia’s internal political situation to worsen.'
'Video footage showed armored vehicles from the Russian military in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, near the war’s front line in Ukraine where Mr. Prigozhin’s fighters had been operating.'
'Additional videos circulating online and verified by The New York Times showed dozens of soldiers getting out of military vehicles and pointing their guns at the compound that forms the military command post in southern Russia.'
'Early Saturday, the governor of the Rostov region asked residents to stay in their homes, saying that the authorities were “doing everything necessary” to ensure their safety. The governor of the nearby Voronezh region, north of Rostov, also said that a convoy of military equipment was moving along a local highway. It was not clear which direction it was moving.'
'As the events played out in Russia, Ukraine’s armed forces posted three words on Twitter: “We are watching.”
Who is Prigozhin?
'The St. Petersburg tycoon has for years been part of a charmed circle of Russian oligarchs with close ties to President Putin. In 2018, he was one of 13 Russians indicted by a federal grand jury in the United States for interfering in the 2016 American election.'
'Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary force, a shadowy private military company, first emerged during Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. It has since exerted influence on behalf of Moscow in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali and Mozambique.'
'Wagner is important to the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine and led the recent assault on the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. And Mr. Prigozhin, who has recruited fighters from prisons, has been widely seen as a symbol of wartime Russia: ruthless, shameless and lawless.'
Why is Prigozhin angry?
'Mr. Prigozhin has in recent months launched accusations at Russia’s military leadership. He blames Russian generals for failing to provide his forces with enough ammunition and for ignoring soldiers’ struggles.'
'The Kremlin tolerated his broadsides for months, even as some analysts said that Mr. Prigozhin was poised to turn his new prominence into broader political influence, possibly threatening Mr. Putin’s grip on power.'
'Later on Saturday morning, Mr. Putin addressed the situation in Rostov-on-Don during a brief speech on state television, saying that “decisive actions” would be taken to stabilize it. He said the functioning of military and civilian institutions in the southern Russian city of a million people had “essentially been blocked.”
“Actions that divide our unity are in essence defeatism before one’s own people,” Mr. Putin said.' (NYTimes)
'Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed. Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike.[1]'
'Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Commanders’ Council made the decision to stop “the evil brought by the military leadership” who neglect and destroy the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers.[2] Prigozhin urged the Russian people not to resist, to remain calm, remain in their homes, and warned that Wagner will “deal” with those who destroyed Russian soldiers before returning to the frontlines in Ukraine after restoring justice for all. Prigozhin also notably accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner and claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel are prepared to act.[3] Prigozhin later posted an audio message qualifying his previous statements and claiming that there is no “coup,” only a “march for justice.”[4]
'Kremlin newswire TASS reported that security measures have been strengthened in Moscow and that Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) special police (OMON) and special rapid response (SOBR) units have been alerted of the situation.[5] Russian sources posted footage reportedly showing military equipment moving through the streets of Moscow.[6] TASS also reported that Russian military personnel and law enforcement have set up military posts and checkpoints near the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, and BBC’s Russia Service reported that Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) employees and SOBR units have set up roadblocks along the Moscow-Voronezh-Rostov highway.[7] A Russian milblogger also claimed that the “Grom” special forces detachment of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) has additionally activated.[8]'
'The FSB and Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee have both opened cases against Prigozhin.[9] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov notably stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed and is aware of the situation.[10] The emergency activation of the domestic security forces and the Kremlin’s direct response suggest that the Kremlin was very likely not aware of, and is explicitly opposed to, Prigozhin’s actions. (ISW, Institute for the Study of War Blog)
Fern, Have you read Diane Francis?
Is this the beginning of the great unwinding of the Russian Empire? Diane Francis has a recent letter that addresses the possibility that Russia may see areas like "Outer Mongolia" peel away from the Federation. Look at a map of Russia. It is huge. It is way beyond manageable. The enormous variety of Asian and various other ethnic and religious groups may see a Moscow completely obsessed with Wagner, the Ukrainian failure and all their internal political struggles. They may view this a chance to break away from their Slavic slave masters who have treated them as sub humans and cannon fodder for a war they don't understand or care about.
Read this:
https://dianefrancis.substack.com/p/chinas-russia?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Thank you, Bill. I am aware of Diane Francis' background as a commentator (Canada) primarily about the financial sector. I suggest in addition to The New York Times and The Washington Post, the Institute for the Study of War, Agence France-Presse, AP News, Ukrainian Journal, Politico, VOX, BBC, Reuters and Twitter.
This is a big one that Putin was not prepared for.
Thank you, Fern! Impressive and hopeful!
Thank you, Laurie. Those sources are solid, journalistic and reliable.
Remarkable sources. Thanks.
This was cross posted from Lucid. Scary...very scary stuff.
https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/reposted-how-putin-may-die?utm_source=cross-post&publication_id=1227278&post_id=130733984&isFreemail=true&utm_campaign=300941&utm_medium=email
Thx Bill. Useful links to 'Special Intelligence' & RB-G's panoramic context.
Shades of 1917? History does repeat itself from time to time.
Anyone else expecting purges in Russia ... as soon as control is attained?
It's a Russian national tradition.
Sadly, true.
Ohhhhhhh
It seems to me that, for the past several months, Putin has been using the Ukrainians to break the Wagner Group - and vice-versa. Clearly, it has not worked. The Ukrainians, if anything, are stronger, and Wagner, though weakened, is still a force to be reckoned with. I also believe that by this August, there will be no more Wagner Group in Russia. I will not mourn them.
Will/can the Ukrainians take advantage of this gap in the center of the Russian line? They have proven to be resilient, nimble fighters and even more nimble strategists. But they have suffered terribly. My real hope is that this major setback will force the Russians into real peace negotiations.
I think if there is to be a peace, it must be on Ukraine's terms.
“...by August there will be no more Wagner Group in Russia”. That makes me nervous because Wagner is notoriously dangerous no matter where they reside. Putin found them useful (until, apparently, he didn’t). They puppet-master a swath of African Countries. Could they set up their strength there and influence the control of a resource rich continent more than they do now? Either way, Wagner spells trouble for the world, I feel.
Wagner Group. Outsourcing you military power gets to be tricky. Has earmarks of an apocalyptic screenplay.
By Xmas no more Russian Federation. IMHO of course.
Thank you for your research and sharing!
Thank you, Liz, for reading and support.
Fern, I so appreciate your research and your writings.
Ally, we're teammates. I'm always happy when we visit. Thank you.
Fern, thank you so much for your work here. You’ve filled in some of my knowledge gaps.
Thank you, Camilla, for following this very important story -- glad I could help.
THIS IS AN UPDATE ABOUT SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA
'Forces led by Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin advanced in the direction of Moscow on Saturday, moving north from the Voronezh region to the Lipetsk region, which is roughly 250 miles away from the Russian capital. President Vladimir Putin, citing a threat to his nation, said he had ordered the military to quash the ‘rebellion’ led by Prigozhin, who on Friday called for Russians to join a campaign against Russia’s military leadership.'
'Prigozhin claimed early Saturday to have taken control of the Russian military command base in Rostov-on-Don in the south. The governor of the Voronezh region further north said a “counterterrorist operation” by the military there was underway, hours before the governor of the Lipetsk region said Wagner forces were moving across the territory. The U.K. Defense Ministry said Wagner units were “almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow.”
Thanks for staying on top of this and sharing, Fern - I truly value your input!
That goes both ways, Gayle. Thank you.
Hi Fern, BBC has been tracking GPS points on the highway leading to Moscow. Major and steady movement toward Moscow. Cannot say for certain who is on the move.
( interesting use of technology, though Kruschev's great grandaughter, living in Moscow, on with Michael Smerconish this morning, said she was amazed she had a signal as the government was blocking internet, About 3 min. After she said that her signal went down!!!!!)
We saw that!
Yes, Carol, the regime has been cutting access to Google as part of its suppression of information.