I posted farther up the page about The Economist's current model. Not only is it very much going against the grain should not be shared or repeated. Individual models cannot be trusted to tell the whole story accurately, and perceptions of strength are an important weapon in politics.
Reminder: Bloomberg had an economic model that predicted a 100% chance of recession in 2022. So much for that.
I posted farther up the page about The Economist's current model. Not only is it very much going against the grain should not be shared or repeated. Individual models cannot be trusted to tell the whole story accurately, and perceptions of strength are an important weapon in politics.
Reminder: Bloomberg had an economic model that predicted a 100% chance of recession in 2022. So much for that.
1st DRAFT of THIS RESPONSE DELETED. I was throwing a bit of a hissy-fit. I should know better. But, then, it is the middle of the night here in Maryland -- when I am apt to write something I regret. Bottom-line: listen to Will's concerns.
Sorry, Ned. I realized I responded to the wrong original comment and copy/pasted it where it should have been. I did not delete this one entirely because I thought that would be rude in case you were busy responding. You are free to copy/paste your response up there as well.
No problem. I think you are right. There are other gaps in the methodology applied in the polling by 'The Economist'. One biggie is that the "fundamentals" used based upon incumbency does not account for third parties.
'The Economist' describes its methods and acknowledges the other polling results. In fact, the article states that, per its model, it assigned an 83% probability of President Biden winning at this stage in the 2020 campaign. Sorry, I do not think one should put his or her head in the sand on this one. This is going to be an razor-thin race. The up-shot of 'The Economist', for me at least, is that we need to get cracking on stratcomms.
ЁЯдЮ
Personally, without the aid of statistics and just going on my often inaccurate gut, President Biden will be re-elected because Mr Kennedy will siphon off more votes from Trump than President Biden as blue-collar Trump supporters, mostly Reagan Democrats, migrate toward Mr Kennedy's mix of iconoclasm and traditional welfare state politics. That is where messaging from neutral sounding entities would be helpful.
I posted farther up the page about The Economist's current model. Not only is it very much going against the grain should not be shared or repeated. Individual models cannot be trusted to tell the whole story accurately, and perceptions of strength are an important weapon in politics.
Reminder: Bloomberg had an economic model that predicted a 100% chance of recession in 2022. So much for that.
1st DRAFT of THIS RESPONSE DELETED. I was throwing a bit of a hissy-fit. I should know better. But, then, it is the middle of the night here in Maryland -- when I am apt to write something I regret. Bottom-line: listen to Will's concerns.
Sorry, Ned. I realized I responded to the wrong original comment and copy/pasted it where it should have been. I did not delete this one entirely because I thought that would be rude in case you were busy responding. You are free to copy/paste your response up there as well.
No problem. I think you are right. There are other gaps in the methodology applied in the polling by 'The Economist'. One biggie is that the "fundamentals" used based upon incumbency does not account for third parties.
Thanks, Will.
'The Economist' describes its methods and acknowledges the other polling results. In fact, the article states that, per its model, it assigned an 83% probability of President Biden winning at this stage in the 2020 campaign. Sorry, I do not think one should put his or her head in the sand on this one. This is going to be an razor-thin race. The up-shot of 'The Economist', for me at least, is that we need to get cracking on stratcomms.
ЁЯдЮ
Personally, without the aid of statistics and just going on my often inaccurate gut, President Biden will be re-elected because Mr Kennedy will siphon off more votes from Trump than President Biden as blue-collar Trump supporters, mostly Reagan Democrats, migrate toward Mr Kennedy's mix of iconoclasm and traditional welfare state politics. That is where messaging from neutral sounding entities would be helpful.
тЬМя╕ПЁЯдФЁЯЩП
LAST PARAGRAPH DELETED; too hostile on my part.
Wil, Democrats take their mascot, Eeyore, as a guiding light towards self realization.
Republicans will follow any ass if it's big enough.