Very frightening to say the least. The key is to get families talking about politics, arguing out what they think American democracy is and means; that is, to re-engage in republican citizenship. NOTE: reference to a recent article in 'The Economist' deleted.🤔
Very frightening to say the least. The key is to get families talking about politics, arguing out what they think American democracy is and means; that is, to re-engage in republican citizenship. NOTE: reference to a recent article in 'The Economist' deleted.🤔
By the way, Trump has called on the members of the 06jan21 Committee to be indicted for destroying evidence. I wonder if he is saying that because he wants to destroy evidence if he wins; that is, obstruct justice and blame it upon the special committee. 💔
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT regarding predictive model from The Economist (and others): Do not take it as an accurate assessment. IGNORE IT. Do not repeat it or share it with anyone.
The Economist model is going against the 538 Model (Biden ahead), the Moody's Model (Biden ahead), and the Economist's own polling averages (!!!) as of recently (Biden ahead). In 2022, that same model incorrectly predicted a bunch of losses that did not materialize. I'm not saying they built a poor model on purpose or anyone should be paranoid or only listen to the models that give you answers you like. But OMG people, I'm begging you, stop taking an individual poll or model as gospel, and don't assume that because something is shared more it is more true!
The idea that Republicans are winning against all historical precedent is a central - maybe THE central - component of their narrative right now. They are trading off the *perception* of having the upper hand because they don't actually have it. People like backing a perceived winner. This illusion of strength is essential to the rise of every authoritarian movement. Acting like pro-democracy candidates have "sobering" chances of success, when they have actually been on an almost unbroken winning streak nationally for six whole years, plays into those hands. We literally just had a special Congressional race in Ohio where the Dem overperformed by TWENTY points despite spending essentially no money. That doesn't happen if your party is weak and your standard-bearer is behind. It just doesn't.
In politics, you need to act like the presumptive champ even if you aren't ahead. To act like you are behind when you are actually ahead is simply inexcusable.
It shouldn't be surprising that the Economist, a publication that loves welfare for the rich, tax cuts, and anything that drives profits upward would support Cheetolini. They know he is a blithering idiot and a danger to the nation, but short-term, he promises to trash the economy once again with massive giveaways to corporations and the wealthy (i.e. their benefactors). Their opinions are less than worthless.
You'd THINK that would be true but the model espoused by (it seems) almost every high-end business school is that profits should be taken as often and as much as can be done, without regard for long-term economic health or any kind of shared, profit-sustaining prosperity across the socio-economic spectrum. In 2016, I was convinced that Big Money would eschew the kind of instability that Trump represented. Now we know they will embrace any potential for rapacious gains, the future be damned.
I'm a chemist not an economist, so when I subscribed when I was avidly reading economics, I was appalled at the absolute tripe it published. Total bullsh!t. I guess you had to be fully indoctrinated in the Chicago school to go along with it. Actually a bit frightening if it represents what policy is based on.
I thought this in 2016. Up until Comey. This does not nullify your point, but in Texas, the fix is in. I hope that is not the case everywhere. And I support Beto and every Dem in Texas. As to optimism, as Winston said, of what use is it to be anything else. He knew how to go from loss to loss with no drop in enthusiasm. The fight is on all fronts. Assume nothing.
So very disappointed in Texas. Lived there so long, am a native born, and refuse to admit being from there now. Family homestead was in Bosque County where sundown laws (not officially) still exists in some small towns.
Loved it when I moved here from East coast. Even rural areas were sane, except for one sign I saw W of Ft Worth calling the UN a communist front. Otherwise OK until Rove came with the savior W in 1994. At least on my turf.
I have been to the lone star state a few times for business. Have always rather liked its culture. But, from a distance, I am not crazy about the politics.
The politics used to be just fine. The change has been the result of lies, dirty tricks, and the most egregious actions. Bought by many who should have known better. And, of course, the macho guys I knew who bought an image that was total bullschitt.
You are right on, Jeri; starting in 1968. Though my parents were Midwestern moderate conservative supporting the ghastly war in Viêt Nam, I remember how sad my mother was when Senator Humphrey lost in 1968. 😢 Senator shady J.D. turns my stomach with his opportunism and he is an educated member of the cognitive under-class; much like the intellectuals flocking to the S.S. under Himmler. 🤢
1st DRAFT of this RESPONSE DELETED. I was getting, ahem, fussy. I will likely pull my initial response, too. Will has made some fine points and I need to chew the cud.
I liked your comment because of your suggestion that the "key is to get families talking about politics, arguing out what they think American democracy is and means; that is, to re-engage in republican citizenship." That is what's missing right now and badly needed. Nobody wants to talk about it. It's considered rude to even mention politics in certain circles. I have neighbors that ignore me. lol.
Fortunately, my neighbors are still talking to me even after we put up our Biden/Harris sign. The ONLY one 😔here in my neighborhood peninsula of nearly 800 people in Magaville, Florida .Come on HCR peeps, join us! 🪧 And while you’re at it ,sport a Biden/Harris t-shirt. I’ve been wearing one since Feb. and only ++ comments/discussions.👕🛒
As the weather heats up here in the land of “no climate change”, I’ve been encouraging my younger family members,with their frequent pool parties😎🍻, to have those conversations with friends.A GOP Admin that would restrict access to condoms and prioritize the rhythm method of birth control seems to get their attention. Fortunately they’re still talking to me too !
I’ve been using talking points from Andra Watkins, who has read and dissected Project 2025.⬇️
It was former Representative Kinzinger (R-IL) who called for this in his closing remarks in one of the 06jan21 Committee hearings. ✌️EDIT: but, hey, I worked in government long enough to learn how to take credit when and where it is not due. 🤫
Ned, if you need another resource to review here on Substack that undergirds Will’s points, read Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles. Rosenberg is admittedly a Democrat but his analysis of current polls includes a much broader scope of statistics and methodology than most - and he correctly predicted that there would be no “Red Wave” in 2022 - something nearly every mainstream media outlet was leading with (I’m looking at you, NYT!).
Polling is a social science. It is nigh on impossible to do it without skewing the results to match the politics of those doing the work. And Republican pollsters are constantly flooding the zone with polls that are more propaganda than science - which then leads to red wavy bs being pushed around as gospel truth.
The Economist has a perspective. That perspective is definitively Capitalist- with a capital C. They are less concerned with my wellbeing as an American than with the wellbeing of the stock and financial markets. My point is to read any poll with an eye towards the politics of the polling agency. Polls are a snapshot in time and a skewed one. Better to spend time helping get out the vote, something that actually can change the outcome of this election!
Funny thing is, I usually do not pay attention to polls. I decide how I am going to vote and say so, if provoked, asked, or giving in to my curmudgeonly ways.
This is a great point. THe control of the MSM has consolidated to a very few right wing nuts out there. I call them nuts, because they deny facts and insert their own beliefs in place of facts. Like Reaganomics being so great, racism no longer a problem, and taxing the wealthy not good.
Sinclair is awful but what can we make of the NYT and WaPo embracing ridiculous memes about Biden's alleged mental decline over fair reporting about Trump's far more obvious lack of both intellect and stability?
Maybe "owns" should be in quotes, I don't know, but the station's DC news segment is always from Slanted Sinclair. For example, in covering President Biden's executive order re the border, with right-wing criticism about "too little too late," the anchor person never mentioned that the reason the bipartisan deal fell through was because Trump ordered his Congressional toadies to kill it.
I didn't realize Sinclair owned some CBS stations. Overheard the "news" broadcast at 6 pm at somewhere other than my house, and was surprised to see a CBS logo at the bottom of the screen. In suburban DC, that was the only identifier. If there'd been an honest one, I would have backed off like I'd come across a rattler or copperhead. Full info please!
Given the idiotic rhetoric coming out of the so-called "paper of record", the New York Times, one has to wonder if they, too, are Russian operatives . . .
When hearing about this poll or that poll, I always say “How many people did they talk to” What is the demographic” “Who are they talking to?”……Well, recently I was at a friends house when his phone rang and it was a pollster. As i sat and listened to my friend answer questions……contrary to what i know to be true about him, he was not truthful with the pollster. He was yanking the guys chain with ridiculous answers and even said he will vote for Rump. Now, I have known this person a very long time and i know that would never happen!! So, It goes to show…..people do yank the chain of the pollsters so you cant even trust those.
That is also a good point. There was some discussion after the 2016 election that some people had misrepresented their positions in polls because they did not want to admit to supporting Trump.
I'm going to express the same meaning in different words.
Don't be naively optimistic, but whatever you do, don't be pessimistic because pessimism is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If I act based on the assumption I won't catch a fish, then I won't fish, and then I won't catch a fish.
Very good point about pessimism. I do despair at times. Still trying to figure out what the HELL happened to 'my' America of the Great Society with Big Business support.
Back then, moderate conservatives, like my parents, viewed themselves as part of a larger system that included liberals. Like the pick used by an ice climbers, liberals would throw the pick ahead (prudently with the influence of moderate liberals).
The moderate conservatives would pull the rest of us in by making the progressive policies fiscally sustainable; at times the further right conservatives might intervene when a policy had failed or was repudiated by the populace.
It does show that what made the W.W.II generation was not the Depression; that made the generation good. Not the war; that made the generation great. It is what those men and women did AFTER W.W.II through 1968 that made them the Greatest Generation.
But that is likely my naïve view. After all, I was a deeply informed intellectual at the age of eight back then.
By describing the conservative/progressive interaction pattern, you're accurately describing a specific manifestation of a frequently observed and frequently described phenomenon that I would argue has been recurring for thousands of generations since the origin of our species. So, I would say your view is not naive. Instead, it's in the right direction. Keep going, and you'll get there.
Alternatively, click on my profile link. I think I can save you a lot of time, energy, and attention.
I'm new to this too. I thought you would see that I've written a book and see its Amazon listing. Regardless, here's the link: https://amazon.com/dp/1779415710.
Hope that works. If not, you should be able to find it with a Google search. The book's name is The Wisdom Theory by James R. Carey.
To me it is Mikey trying to blur the faces on so much of the Jan 6 video as they soon discovered it was revealing so many more participants that hadn't been identified yet. Mikey seems to want to destroy evidence more than anyone else.
Very frightening to say the least. The key is to get families talking about politics, arguing out what they think American democracy is and means; that is, to re-engage in republican citizenship. NOTE: reference to a recent article in 'The Economist' deleted.🤔
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6946424340980645888/ 🗽
By the way, Trump has called on the members of the 06jan21 Committee to be indicted for destroying evidence. I wonder if he is saying that because he wants to destroy evidence if he wins; that is, obstruct justice and blame it upon the special committee. 💔
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT regarding predictive model from The Economist (and others): Do not take it as an accurate assessment. IGNORE IT. Do not repeat it or share it with anyone.
The Economist model is going against the 538 Model (Biden ahead), the Moody's Model (Biden ahead), and the Economist's own polling averages (!!!) as of recently (Biden ahead). In 2022, that same model incorrectly predicted a bunch of losses that did not materialize. I'm not saying they built a poor model on purpose or anyone should be paranoid or only listen to the models that give you answers you like. But OMG people, I'm begging you, stop taking an individual poll or model as gospel, and don't assume that because something is shared more it is more true!
The idea that Republicans are winning against all historical precedent is a central - maybe THE central - component of their narrative right now. They are trading off the *perception* of having the upper hand because they don't actually have it. People like backing a perceived winner. This illusion of strength is essential to the rise of every authoritarian movement. Acting like pro-democracy candidates have "sobering" chances of success, when they have actually been on an almost unbroken winning streak nationally for six whole years, plays into those hands. We literally just had a special Congressional race in Ohio where the Dem overperformed by TWENTY points despite spending essentially no money. That doesn't happen if your party is weak and your standard-bearer is behind. It just doesn't.
In politics, you need to act like the presumptive champ even if you aren't ahead. To act like you are behind when you are actually ahead is simply inexcusable.
It shouldn't be surprising that the Economist, a publication that loves welfare for the rich, tax cuts, and anything that drives profits upward would support Cheetolini. They know he is a blithering idiot and a danger to the nation, but short-term, he promises to trash the economy once again with massive giveaways to corporations and the wealthy (i.e. their benefactors). Their opinions are less than worthless.
Interesting since with a full economy are the Dems corporate profits are doing "just fine" thank you!
You'd THINK that would be true but the model espoused by (it seems) almost every high-end business school is that profits should be taken as often and as much as can be done, without regard for long-term economic health or any kind of shared, profit-sustaining prosperity across the socio-economic spectrum. In 2016, I was convinced that Big Money would eschew the kind of instability that Trump represented. Now we know they will embrace any potential for rapacious gains, the future be damned.
I'm a chemist not an economist, so when I subscribed when I was avidly reading economics, I was appalled at the absolute tripe it published. Total bullsh!t. I guess you had to be fully indoctrinated in the Chicago school to go along with it. Actually a bit frightening if it represents what policy is based on.
Give me Stephanie Kelton any day.
I thought this in 2016. Up until Comey. This does not nullify your point, but in Texas, the fix is in. I hope that is not the case everywhere. And I support Beto and every Dem in Texas. As to optimism, as Winston said, of what use is it to be anything else. He knew how to go from loss to loss with no drop in enthusiasm. The fight is on all fronts. Assume nothing.
So very disappointed in Texas. Lived there so long, am a native born, and refuse to admit being from there now. Family homestead was in Bosque County where sundown laws (not officially) still exists in some small towns.
Loved it when I moved here from East coast. Even rural areas were sane, except for one sign I saw W of Ft Worth calling the UN a communist front. Otherwise OK until Rove came with the savior W in 1994. At least on my turf.
Rickey and Jeri,
I have been to the lone star state a few times for business. Have always rather liked its culture. But, from a distance, I am not crazy about the politics.
I miss friends and Texas food. Don't miss the dust storms of the south plains.
The politics used to be just fine. The change has been the result of lies, dirty tricks, and the most egregious actions. Bought by many who should have known better. And, of course, the macho guys I knew who bought an image that was total bullschitt.
You are right on, Jeri; starting in 1968. Though my parents were Midwestern moderate conservative supporting the ghastly war in Viêt Nam, I remember how sad my mother was when Senator Humphrey lost in 1968. 😢 Senator shady J.D. turns my stomach with his opportunism and he is an educated member of the cognitive under-class; much like the intellectuals flocking to the S.S. under Himmler. 🤢
1st DRAFT of this RESPONSE DELETED. I was getting, ahem, fussy. I will likely pull my initial response, too. Will has made some fine points and I need to chew the cud.
I liked your comment because of your suggestion that the "key is to get families talking about politics, arguing out what they think American democracy is and means; that is, to re-engage in republican citizenship." That is what's missing right now and badly needed. Nobody wants to talk about it. It's considered rude to even mention politics in certain circles. I have neighbors that ignore me. lol.
Fortunately, my neighbors are still talking to me even after we put up our Biden/Harris sign. The ONLY one 😔here in my neighborhood peninsula of nearly 800 people in Magaville, Florida .Come on HCR peeps, join us! 🪧 And while you’re at it ,sport a Biden/Harris t-shirt. I’ve been wearing one since Feb. and only ++ comments/discussions.👕🛒
As the weather heats up here in the land of “no climate change”, I’ve been encouraging my younger family members,with their frequent pool parties😎🍻, to have those conversations with friends.A GOP Admin that would restrict access to condoms and prioritize the rhythm method of birth control seems to get their attention. Fortunately they’re still talking to me too !
I’ve been using talking points from Andra Watkins, who has read and dissected Project 2025.⬇️
https://open.substack.com/pub/project2025istheocracy/p/reader-question-what-does-project?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Just imagine the fun we could drum up if we were neighbors!! I appreciate your passion so much. Thank you for sticking your neck out there.
I have shirts like “Make Racism Wrong Again.” Nothing political as yet, but one coming up.
Your enthusiasm is infectious, Kathy.
People won’t talk in Texas, unless you are a cult nut.
It was former Representative Kinzinger (R-IL) who called for this in his closing remarks in one of the 06jan21 Committee hearings. ✌️EDIT: but, hey, I worked in government long enough to learn how to take credit when and where it is not due. 🤫
Ned, if you need another resource to review here on Substack that undergirds Will’s points, read Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles. Rosenberg is admittedly a Democrat but his analysis of current polls includes a much broader scope of statistics and methodology than most - and he correctly predicted that there would be no “Red Wave” in 2022 - something nearly every mainstream media outlet was leading with (I’m looking at you, NYT!).
Polling is a social science. It is nigh on impossible to do it without skewing the results to match the politics of those doing the work. And Republican pollsters are constantly flooding the zone with polls that are more propaganda than science - which then leads to red wavy bs being pushed around as gospel truth.
The Economist has a perspective. That perspective is definitively Capitalist- with a capital C. They are less concerned with my wellbeing as an American than with the wellbeing of the stock and financial markets. My point is to read any poll with an eye towards the politics of the polling agency. Polls are a snapshot in time and a skewed one. Better to spend time helping get out the vote, something that actually can change the outcome of this election!
Thank you for the suggestion of Mr Rosenberg.
Funny thing is, I usually do not pay attention to polls. I decide how I am going to vote and say so, if provoked, asked, or giving in to my curmudgeonly ways.
Cud can be useful sometimes
😇
P.S. as a moderate conservative, long gone from the G.O.P., consider me not part of the 'new' right but the 'moo' right. 🤭🤫😊
This is a great point. THe control of the MSM has consolidated to a very few right wing nuts out there. I call them nuts, because they deny facts and insert their own beliefs in place of facts. Like Reaganomics being so great, racism no longer a problem, and taxing the wealthy not good.
Read my post about the Sinclair media group.
Sinclair is awful but what can we make of the NYT and WaPo embracing ridiculous memes about Biden's alleged mental decline over fair reporting about Trump's far more obvious lack of both intellect and stability?
These outlets are trying to play bothsidesim. Sadly, they are killing their reputation.
Sinclair owns the area CBS outlet here; spin masters to the max. I can't stand them.
Bill Moyers warned about Sinclair eons ago.
Judd Legum was on Alex Wagner last night talking about Sinclair’s overreaction to his report on corporate’s talking points re Biden’s age.
https://open.substack.com/pub/popularinformation/p/update-sinclair-lashes-out-calls?r=3hlhv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Maybe "owns" should be in quotes, I don't know, but the station's DC news segment is always from Slanted Sinclair. For example, in covering President Biden's executive order re the border, with right-wing criticism about "too little too late," the anchor person never mentioned that the reason the bipartisan deal fell through was because Trump ordered his Congressional toadies to kill it.
I didn't realize Sinclair owned some CBS stations. Overheard the "news" broadcast at 6 pm at somewhere other than my house, and was surprised to see a CBS logo at the bottom of the screen. In suburban DC, that was the only identifier. If there'd been an honest one, I would have backed off like I'd come across a rattler or copperhead. Full info please!
Given the idiotic rhetoric coming out of the so-called "paper of record", the New York Times, one has to wonder if they, too, are Russian operatives . . .
When hearing about this poll or that poll, I always say “How many people did they talk to” What is the demographic” “Who are they talking to?”……Well, recently I was at a friends house when his phone rang and it was a pollster. As i sat and listened to my friend answer questions……contrary to what i know to be true about him, he was not truthful with the pollster. He was yanking the guys chain with ridiculous answers and even said he will vote for Rump. Now, I have known this person a very long time and i know that would never happen!! So, It goes to show…..people do yank the chain of the pollsters so you cant even trust those.
That is also a good point. There was some discussion after the 2016 election that some people had misrepresented their positions in polls because they did not want to admit to supporting Trump.
Thank you Cal! Certainly food for thought and you are right.
Excellent points, Will!
I'm going to express the same meaning in different words.
Don't be naively optimistic, but whatever you do, don't be pessimistic because pessimism is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If I act based on the assumption I won't catch a fish, then I won't fish, and then I won't catch a fish.
Very good point about pessimism. I do despair at times. Still trying to figure out what the HELL happened to 'my' America of the Great Society with Big Business support.
Back then, moderate conservatives, like my parents, viewed themselves as part of a larger system that included liberals. Like the pick used by an ice climbers, liberals would throw the pick ahead (prudently with the influence of moderate liberals).
The moderate conservatives would pull the rest of us in by making the progressive policies fiscally sustainable; at times the further right conservatives might intervene when a policy had failed or was repudiated by the populace.
It does show that what made the W.W.II generation was not the Depression; that made the generation good. Not the war; that made the generation great. It is what those men and women did AFTER W.W.II through 1968 that made them the Greatest Generation.
But that is likely my naïve view. After all, I was a deeply informed intellectual at the age of eight back then.
By describing the conservative/progressive interaction pattern, you're accurately describing a specific manifestation of a frequently observed and frequently described phenomenon that I would argue has been recurring for thousands of generations since the origin of our species. So, I would say your view is not naive. Instead, it's in the right direction. Keep going, and you'll get there.
Alternatively, click on my profile link. I think I can save you a lot of time, energy, and attention.
Thank you, James. On your profile now -- ¿where do I go from there? I am not familiar with sub-stack, truth be told.
I'm new to this too. I thought you would see that I've written a book and see its Amazon listing. Regardless, here's the link: https://amazon.com/dp/1779415710.
Hope that works. If not, you should be able to find it with a Google search. The book's name is The Wisdom Theory by James R. Carey.
Ordering the book. Thanks.
Well said, Will.
Ned, I definitely agree.
He always accuses others of the crimes and misdeeds he himself has done, is doing, or plans to do.
His accusations are the ‘tell’ for his own approach.
Great ploy, isn't it?
EDIT: my biggest fear is that the militias have become a plain-clothes S.A.
To me it is Mikey trying to blur the faces on so much of the Jan 6 video as they soon discovered it was revealing so many more participants that hadn't been identified yet. Mikey seems to want to destroy evidence more than anyone else.
Mikey is a creep!
I may go to the appellation of Squeaker Mikey Mouse.