Ned, if you need another resource to review here on Substack that undergirds Will’s points, read Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles. Rosenberg is admittedly a Democrat but his analysis of current polls includes a much broader scope of statistics and methodology than most - and he correctly predicted that there would be no “Red Wave” in …
Ned, if you need another resource to review here on Substack that undergirds Will’s points, read Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles. Rosenberg is admittedly a Democrat but his analysis of current polls includes a much broader scope of statistics and methodology than most - and he correctly predicted that there would be no “Red Wave” in 2022 - something nearly every mainstream media outlet was leading with (I’m looking at you, NYT!).
Polling is a social science. It is nigh on impossible to do it without skewing the results to match the politics of those doing the work. And Republican pollsters are constantly flooding the zone with polls that are more propaganda than science - which then leads to red wavy bs being pushed around as gospel truth.
The Economist has a perspective. That perspective is definitively Capitalist- with a capital C. They are less concerned with my wellbeing as an American than with the wellbeing of the stock and financial markets. My point is to read any poll with an eye towards the politics of the polling agency. Polls are a snapshot in time and a skewed one. Better to spend time helping get out the vote, something that actually can change the outcome of this election!
Funny thing is, I usually do not pay attention to polls. I decide how I am going to vote and say so, if provoked, asked, or giving in to my curmudgeonly ways.
Ned, if you need another resource to review here on Substack that undergirds Will’s points, read Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles. Rosenberg is admittedly a Democrat but his analysis of current polls includes a much broader scope of statistics and methodology than most - and he correctly predicted that there would be no “Red Wave” in 2022 - something nearly every mainstream media outlet was leading with (I’m looking at you, NYT!).
Polling is a social science. It is nigh on impossible to do it without skewing the results to match the politics of those doing the work. And Republican pollsters are constantly flooding the zone with polls that are more propaganda than science - which then leads to red wavy bs being pushed around as gospel truth.
The Economist has a perspective. That perspective is definitively Capitalist- with a capital C. They are less concerned with my wellbeing as an American than with the wellbeing of the stock and financial markets. My point is to read any poll with an eye towards the politics of the polling agency. Polls are a snapshot in time and a skewed one. Better to spend time helping get out the vote, something that actually can change the outcome of this election!
Thank you for the suggestion of Mr Rosenberg.
Funny thing is, I usually do not pay attention to polls. I decide how I am going to vote and say so, if provoked, asked, or giving in to my curmudgeonly ways.