You are absolutely correct, Linda--there WILL be articles of impeachment filed against Biden almost as soon as the new (presumably Republican-controlled) Congress is sworn in. I have been predicting (make that guaranteeing) that development as soon as Biden is sworn in.
You are absolutely correct, Linda--there WILL be articles of impeachment filed against Biden almost as soon as the new (presumably Republican-controlled) Congress is sworn in. I have been predicting (make that guaranteeing) that development as soon as Biden is sworn in.
Yes, that and the fact that the Democrats have only recently and suddenly (hopefully) awakened to this danger, as well as that of gerrymandering. The question is, is it too late for this problem to be fixed?
My personal take is the Dems are about 15 years behind the game. RNC Chair Michael Steele very successfully executed their RedMap strategy of building strength at the state level in advance of the 2010 census. Everyone saw it afterwards, yet the Dems seem to be caught flatfooted again.
Yes, which should have wrenched them into gear before the 2020 census. They seem to be unable to focus below the federal level and to be following some very stale conventions at the federal level. Schumer's public statements carry hardly any weight for me. It's time for his actions to speak.
I sadly agree, especially given that Senators Manchin and Sinema have already said that that they will alter the filibuster to advance voting rights legislation. So, we'd best get used to permanent Democrat minority status on a federal level.
Ian, given that historically Democrats are reactive and not proactive this follows suit. Everything happening today should have been strongly addressed and stomped out on Biden's first day. I don't follow the worn out adage that Biden was so busy with COVID-19 ++++. Reality is time spent getting shots in the arm will cost us our Democracy. Keeping our Democracy in check should have been addressed immediately. Bidens involvement was important, but not 24/7. This lends to the question, do we now or did we then not have the best team in place? Do I appreciate what he has done in office. Absolutely, but the cost is high. We clearly never got control of the steering wheel.
This is exceedingly pessimistic - dystopian even. Even I, a noted Cassandra, cannot subscribe to this yet.
First of all, TrumpтАЩs world, and therefore politics in America, may flip 180 degrees in the next few months. The upcoming hearings could and should be devastating to the entire Republican Party. There may be indictments of key players from Congress and in the Executive Branch. I donтАЩt rule out an indictment of Trump.
The effect this would have on the midterms is unclear. In fact it is not clear America would *get* to the midterms without serious, perhaps cataclysmic violence. As for those elections, the statistics are indeed grim. In modern times, the PresidentтАЩs party lost seats 15 midterm cycles consecutively until Clinton broke the streak in 1998 and Bush too gained seats in 2002 (9/11 no doubt). And in the past 4 elections, things returned to normal. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/vitalstats_ch2_tbl4.pdf
So it is conceded that this is to be an uphill fight. But I would posit that the 2022 elections will be like none other, perhaps since the Civil War. Every possible ingredient will be thrown into the soup with no idea how it will turn out in the end.
If violence occurs of the kind I mentioned beforehand occurs, then it will be the single dominating factor to sway the vote one way or another.
But assuming thatтАЩs unlikely (no indictments, no significant bloodshed):
TrumpтАЩs endorsements will win a shocking number of primaries. But given their extraordinarily far right boldness, will they be able to carry a general election? I think itтАЩs at least a possibility that there could be a spectacular backfire here.
What will the effect on the Democratic Party chances of all the Representatives and Senators retiring? At first glance, the power of incumbency would indicate this will be a big negative for the Dems. This is a worry.
What will the state of the economy be? In all elections (except maybe this one), this is the deciding factor. Right now the economy is in rude good health, even factoring inflation in. Will the Democrats *finally* start selling this relentlessly? Or will the economy flip? All in all, I have to think that this bone going into the soup is a plus for the Democrats.
What will the state of Covid be? All signs point to a devastating month or so. But when Omicron has totally driven out Delta, will that be the last gasp for Covid as a pandemic? Or will there be yet another тАЬvariant of interestтАЭ? Covid has been declared dead wrongly too often so a prediction is not possible. But imagine an October-November with the medical system limping back to health, with children in school, with supply chain problems a thing of the past, with everything open and masks abandoned - would that not redound well to the governing party?
Finally, what will the state of election law be? Will Senate Majority Leader Joe Manchin (self-anointed) signal to the Senators to fall in line for a filibuster rule change? If so, will the resulting bill galvanize Republicans to come out in droves to squash the anticipated jump in voting by the poor and people of color?
My point is this: the election is, in political terms a light year away. If any election could upset conventional wisdom or doubly confirm it, this is it. It is the mother of all outliers, to coin a phrase. :)
And getting as far down the road as an impeachment of Biden is, at this moment, a gigantic waste of psychic energy.
Agreed assuming we get in gear by donating and working. We canтАЩt sit on the sidelines and just hope good will triumph over evil. Reality has to prevail over the FPтАЩs true believers where reality doesnтАЩt exist.
Eric your assessments are typically excellent, this one as well. You always spend the time to do a thorough treatment.
I donтАЩt know why, but often here I see a knee-jerk despair and pessimism response to whatтАЩs happening. There are so many moving parts to this monumental change in American society. One fleeting little news item, like a suddenly-revealed legal detail from the trumps voluminous litigation morass, sends people into doom and gloom. American society is divorcing itself from the old social order. We are doing a thorough purge of the slavery and misogyny tradition. You canтАЩt let yourself be swayed by a few minor details, you have to look at the big picture.
ЁЯЩЛтАНтЩАя╕П I know why. The reality of Voter Suppression and the loss of our Democracy is starting, albeit entirely too late, to sink in. What the GOP is effectively planning and perpetuating is very real.
Technically incorrect. An impeachment requires only a majority of the House. Removal from office requires a 2/3 majority of the Senate. So, they can impeach President Biden, they just probably won't be able to have him removed from office.
But to your point, yes it would be a "show trial", demonstrating nothing more than a desire to seek vengeance for the two (deserved) impeachments of the Orange Asscactus.
I respectfully disagree. Trump committed impeachable offenses but today's Republican Party wouldnтАЩt vote to convict him even if he shot someone in broad daylight.
Ian, I wasn't suggesting what Trump did weren't Impeachable offenses. They were. But knowing beforehand what the GOP would do, we were just shoveling sand. It ultimately became nothing more than an idle threat that worked against us with his cult.
You are absolutely correct, Linda--there WILL be articles of impeachment filed against Biden almost as soon as the new (presumably Republican-controlled) Congress is sworn in. I have been predicting (make that guaranteeing) that development as soon as Biden is sworn in.
Ian, it is becoming clearer to me the long reaching effects of voter suppression.
Yes, that and the fact that the Democrats have only recently and suddenly (hopefully) awakened to this danger, as well as that of gerrymandering. The question is, is it too late for this problem to be fixed?
My personal take is the Dems are about 15 years behind the game. RNC Chair Michael Steele very successfully executed their RedMap strategy of building strength at the state level in advance of the 2010 census. Everyone saw it afterwards, yet the Dems seem to be caught flatfooted again.
Yes, which should have wrenched them into gear before the 2020 census. They seem to be unable to focus below the federal level and to be following some very stale conventions at the federal level. Schumer's public statements carry hardly any weight for me. It's time for his actions to speak.
I agree. Schumer represents New York banks and is the ultimate "corporate Democrat."
What else is new? :-/
Sadly true.
Ian, in my opinion, yes it's too late.
I sadly agree, especially given that Senators Manchin and Sinema have already said that that they will alter the filibuster to advance voting rights legislation. So, we'd best get used to permanent Democrat minority status on a federal level.
Ian, given that historically Democrats are reactive and not proactive this follows suit. Everything happening today should have been strongly addressed and stomped out on Biden's first day. I don't follow the worn out adage that Biden was so busy with COVID-19 ++++. Reality is time spent getting shots in the arm will cost us our Democracy. Keeping our Democracy in check should have been addressed immediately. Bidens involvement was important, but not 24/7. This lends to the question, do we now or did we then not have the best team in place? Do I appreciate what he has done in office. Absolutely, but the cost is high. We clearly never got control of the steering wheel.
AMEN.
Impeach Biden???
What for???
Being alive and winning the election? :-)
Mike, yeah. Pretty much.
For not being sexist and racist.
Gayle, how he handled leaving Afghanistan, unfit to serve, +++. Whatever they can come up with.
This is exceedingly pessimistic - dystopian even. Even I, a noted Cassandra, cannot subscribe to this yet.
First of all, TrumpтАЩs world, and therefore politics in America, may flip 180 degrees in the next few months. The upcoming hearings could and should be devastating to the entire Republican Party. There may be indictments of key players from Congress and in the Executive Branch. I donтАЩt rule out an indictment of Trump.
The effect this would have on the midterms is unclear. In fact it is not clear America would *get* to the midterms without serious, perhaps cataclysmic violence. As for those elections, the statistics are indeed grim. In modern times, the PresidentтАЩs party lost seats 15 midterm cycles consecutively until Clinton broke the streak in 1998 and Bush too gained seats in 2002 (9/11 no doubt). And in the past 4 elections, things returned to normal. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/vitalstats_ch2_tbl4.pdf
So it is conceded that this is to be an uphill fight. But I would posit that the 2022 elections will be like none other, perhaps since the Civil War. Every possible ingredient will be thrown into the soup with no idea how it will turn out in the end.
If violence occurs of the kind I mentioned beforehand occurs, then it will be the single dominating factor to sway the vote one way or another.
But assuming thatтАЩs unlikely (no indictments, no significant bloodshed):
TrumpтАЩs endorsements will win a shocking number of primaries. But given their extraordinarily far right boldness, will they be able to carry a general election? I think itтАЩs at least a possibility that there could be a spectacular backfire here.
What will the effect on the Democratic Party chances of all the Representatives and Senators retiring? At first glance, the power of incumbency would indicate this will be a big negative for the Dems. This is a worry.
What will the state of the economy be? In all elections (except maybe this one), this is the deciding factor. Right now the economy is in rude good health, even factoring inflation in. Will the Democrats *finally* start selling this relentlessly? Or will the economy flip? All in all, I have to think that this bone going into the soup is a plus for the Democrats.
What will the state of Covid be? All signs point to a devastating month or so. But when Omicron has totally driven out Delta, will that be the last gasp for Covid as a pandemic? Or will there be yet another тАЬvariant of interestтАЭ? Covid has been declared dead wrongly too often so a prediction is not possible. But imagine an October-November with the medical system limping back to health, with children in school, with supply chain problems a thing of the past, with everything open and masks abandoned - would that not redound well to the governing party?
Finally, what will the state of election law be? Will Senate Majority Leader Joe Manchin (self-anointed) signal to the Senators to fall in line for a filibuster rule change? If so, will the resulting bill galvanize Republicans to come out in droves to squash the anticipated jump in voting by the poor and people of color?
My point is this: the election is, in political terms a light year away. If any election could upset conventional wisdom or doubly confirm it, this is it. It is the mother of all outliers, to coin a phrase. :)
And getting as far down the road as an impeachment of Biden is, at this moment, a gigantic waste of psychic energy.
Agreed assuming we get in gear by donating and working. We canтАЩt sit on the sidelines and just hope good will triumph over evil. Reality has to prevail over the FPтАЩs true believers where reality doesnтАЩt exist.
Agreed.
Eric your assessments are typically excellent, this one as well. You always spend the time to do a thorough treatment.
I donтАЩt know why, but often here I see a knee-jerk despair and pessimism response to whatтАЩs happening. There are so many moving parts to this monumental change in American society. One fleeting little news item, like a suddenly-revealed legal detail from the trumps voluminous litigation morass, sends people into doom and gloom. American society is divorcing itself from the old social order. We are doing a thorough purge of the slavery and misogyny tradition. You canтАЩt let yourself be swayed by a few minor details, you have to look at the big picture.
ЁЯЩЛтАНтЩАя╕П I know why. The reality of Voter Suppression and the loss of our Democracy is starting, albeit entirely too late, to sink in. What the GOP is effectively planning and perpetuating is very real.
^^^^What Linda said. It won't be anything legitimate or substantive, but they'll do it just for revenge.
They won't be able to impeach him without 2/3s majorities. It will be a show trial if they do that.
Technically incorrect. An impeachment requires only a majority of the House. Removal from office requires a 2/3 majority of the Senate. So, they can impeach President Biden, they just probably won't be able to have him removed from office.
Oh. Thanks for that info.
But to your point, yes it would be a "show trial", demonstrating nothing more than a desire to seek vengeance for the two (deserved) impeachments of the Orange Asscactus.
Benghazi on steroids
Like what we did to Trump? In retrospect, trying to Impeach Trump, twice did nothing more than embarrass us. It was a big mistake.
I respectfully disagree. Trump committed impeachable offenses but today's Republican Party wouldnтАЩt vote to convict him even if he shot someone in broad daylight.
Ian, I wasn't suggesting what Trump did weren't Impeachable offenses. They were. But knowing beforehand what the GOP would do, we were just shoveling sand. It ultimately became nothing more than an idle threat that worked against us with his cult.
Ian, we're not in Kansas anymore, are we? Not even sure where that is.