Have to wonder about that. Would his generals let him? Putin must be feeling a lot less secure than he was a couple of weeks ago, which might make him want to lash out. But the generals must be feeling even less secure, and might relish an order that would justify overthrowing him and making themselves heroes. This is all speculation,…
Have to wonder about that. Would his generals let him? Putin must be feeling a lot less secure than he was a couple of weeks ago, which might make him want to lash out. But the generals must be feeling even less secure, and might relish an order that would justify overthrowing him and making themselves heroes. This is all speculation, I admit, but isn’t that true of virtually all the speculation that is being so loudly trumpeted?
Jon, I think you are probably right about Putin AND his generals. It's happened before in Russia. But you also hit on a point that has been popping up: how much damage a person can cause when things don't go as they anticipated but they will not back down. I suspect it will take the combo of resistance by the Russian people to Putin, and his government refusing to follow commands because they really do not want this war. The sanctions are essential, and there is some word that at least a portion of ordinary Russian citizens agree. They know they are being shafted by the oligarchs. As for speculation, if it is based on past experience and current signals based on good intel and insight, it can give an idea of what's going on behind the scrim and help us anticipate possible scenarios. We just have to be willing to constantly revise as our information changes.
hitler was a poor general. his generals never moved against him. stalin got rid of his best generals because they were a threat. then along came ww2 and russia was in trouble. but stalin had to die (1953) before anyone (krushchev) denounced him and revealed his crimes. italians turned against mussolini when they started losing the war. the west would easily win a war with russia, if nuclear weapons are not used, a big IF. yes, 80% of german casualties in europe were on the russian front (so don't tell a russian that the us and britain won the war) but russia was on defense the whole time, until stalin forced the west to open a western front (d day). meanwhile, the us is so fond of saying 'dissent ends at the border." be careful what you wish for. russia is hiring mercenaries? blackwater, anyone? more and more it seems that putin has never had an original idea. he'll be dropping barrel bombs next. the farther west the war spreads, the better it is for ukraine. russian forces 'worked like russians.' that means two weeks day and night on a large but limited task, like bringing in a harvest, building a house, hacking into a computer system. if that doesn't get the job done, something is desperately wrong. the two weeks were up on friday the 11th. the russians should be 'sleeping on the stove' by now, but things did not work out for them. now it will get crazy, and desperate. ukraine, keep your hand on that plow, hold on. bad news travels fast, even in russia.
Don't know why I bother. Hitler's generals did move against him. They were outed, and died as a result. But they tried and are honored as heroes as a result. Not bothering with the rest of it. My eyes hurt. So does my head. Will say this: You are right that Putin has never had an original idea (long ago noted). But he has a very strong sense of survival. He is not predictable, but that doesn't mean he's a total fool.
Have to wonder about that. Would his generals let him? Putin must be feeling a lot less secure than he was a couple of weeks ago, which might make him want to lash out. But the generals must be feeling even less secure, and might relish an order that would justify overthrowing him and making themselves heroes. This is all speculation, I admit, but isn’t that true of virtually all the speculation that is being so loudly trumpeted?
Jon, I think you are probably right about Putin AND his generals. It's happened before in Russia. But you also hit on a point that has been popping up: how much damage a person can cause when things don't go as they anticipated but they will not back down. I suspect it will take the combo of resistance by the Russian people to Putin, and his government refusing to follow commands because they really do not want this war. The sanctions are essential, and there is some word that at least a portion of ordinary Russian citizens agree. They know they are being shafted by the oligarchs. As for speculation, if it is based on past experience and current signals based on good intel and insight, it can give an idea of what's going on behind the scrim and help us anticipate possible scenarios. We just have to be willing to constantly revise as our information changes.
hitler was a poor general. his generals never moved against him. stalin got rid of his best generals because they were a threat. then along came ww2 and russia was in trouble. but stalin had to die (1953) before anyone (krushchev) denounced him and revealed his crimes. italians turned against mussolini when they started losing the war. the west would easily win a war with russia, if nuclear weapons are not used, a big IF. yes, 80% of german casualties in europe were on the russian front (so don't tell a russian that the us and britain won the war) but russia was on defense the whole time, until stalin forced the west to open a western front (d day). meanwhile, the us is so fond of saying 'dissent ends at the border." be careful what you wish for. russia is hiring mercenaries? blackwater, anyone? more and more it seems that putin has never had an original idea. he'll be dropping barrel bombs next. the farther west the war spreads, the better it is for ukraine. russian forces 'worked like russians.' that means two weeks day and night on a large but limited task, like bringing in a harvest, building a house, hacking into a computer system. if that doesn't get the job done, something is desperately wrong. the two weeks were up on friday the 11th. the russians should be 'sleeping on the stove' by now, but things did not work out for them. now it will get crazy, and desperate. ukraine, keep your hand on that plow, hold on. bad news travels fast, even in russia.
Don't know why I bother. Hitler's generals did move against him. They were outed, and died as a result. But they tried and are honored as heroes as a result. Not bothering with the rest of it. My eyes hurt. So does my head. Will say this: You are right that Putin has never had an original idea (long ago noted). But he has a very strong sense of survival. He is not predictable, but that doesn't mean he's a total fool.
Can’❤️this but that is what terrifies me about him.