Jon, I think you are probably right about Putin AND his generals. It's happened before in Russia. But you also hit on a point that has been popping up: how much damage a person can cause when things don't go as they anticipated but they will not back down. I suspect it will take the combo of resistance by the Russian people to Putin, an…
Jon, I think you are probably right about Putin AND his generals. It's happened before in Russia. But you also hit on a point that has been popping up: how much damage a person can cause when things don't go as they anticipated but they will not back down. I suspect it will take the combo of resistance by the Russian people to Putin, and his government refusing to follow commands because they really do not want this war. The sanctions are essential, and there is some word that at least a portion of ordinary Russian citizens agree. They know they are being shafted by the oligarchs. As for speculation, if it is based on past experience and current signals based on good intel and insight, it can give an idea of what's going on behind the scrim and help us anticipate possible scenarios. We just have to be willing to constantly revise as our information changes.
Jon, I think you are probably right about Putin AND his generals. It's happened before in Russia. But you also hit on a point that has been popping up: how much damage a person can cause when things don't go as they anticipated but they will not back down. I suspect it will take the combo of resistance by the Russian people to Putin, and his government refusing to follow commands because they really do not want this war. The sanctions are essential, and there is some word that at least a portion of ordinary Russian citizens agree. They know they are being shafted by the oligarchs. As for speculation, if it is based on past experience and current signals based on good intel and insight, it can give an idea of what's going on behind the scrim and help us anticipate possible scenarios. We just have to be willing to constantly revise as our information changes.