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Yes, it is hard to determine later and it sounds like you were right on about decisive moments. I think a lot about such things. Right now I am wondering what would have happened in North America, for example, without the Europeans bringing smallpox. In some of the first chapters of Indigenous Continent the author discusses how smallpox decimated the Iroquois and how they went on mourning wars to resupply their population. Turned the whole area topsy turvy. Lots about small pox later on in other situations as well. I know that there are other factors, but this one is standing out to me as I read. That and the difference in world views between Native Americans and Europeans and later on the new USA.

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