I looked at the work participation chart you linked to and if you estimate the trend line from the time of Covid you will see a gradual increase in the participation rate, and if you start from Biden’s inauguration, there is a linear trend upward from 61.3% to 62.4%. It has not reached the level from just prior to Covid: 63.3%. The trend…
I looked at the work participation chart you linked to and if you estimate the trend line from the time of Covid you will see a gradual increase in the participation rate, and if you start from Biden’s inauguration, there is a linear trend upward from 61.3% to 62.4%. It has not reached the level from just prior to Covid: 63.3%. The trend is upward and by my calculations approximately 55% of the loss in participation has been regained. As far I know there is no gold standard for economic recovery over time, but this seems like a positive trend.
I’m on a phone so don’t have access to analytic tools, but using a different source from yours: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc you can see that the trend in upwards for both housing and non-housing debt from 2013 Q2 to 2022 Q4 with some to-early-to-tell signs that both trends are flattening somewhat. I’m pretty sure that this state of affairs would analytically struggle to point to Joe Biden as the cause.
I think there are a number of ways to analyze and discuss this so first let me say that you are correct that the labor participation rate has been flat since March. I also think it might be still too early to tell whether or not this is a change in the general trend since January 2021. I would suppose that if the current rate holds for X (some arbitrary) length of time then the general trend line would flatten and your point would have more confirmatory evidence.
However, in looking at The Bureau of Labor and Statistics site you can see that there are umpteen factors that can be analyzed and it is unclear to me (not being an economist) what factors meaningfully interact to give a ‘true’ picture of the economy. Also, no matter what statistics you apply, I don’t think that data alone can tell a meaningful story without having some theoretical framework to judge against.
With those grains of salt taken, I looked at the participation data from the start of Trump’s term until the appropriate quarter for comparison to Biden’s tenure thus far. The percentage change for Trump was 0.48% and for Biden it is currently 2.12%. This is obviously only a rough comparison that may not be the right one to make, but I still see no evidence that Biden’s policies are failing at this point.
I looked at the work participation chart you linked to and if you estimate the trend line from the time of Covid you will see a gradual increase in the participation rate, and if you start from Biden’s inauguration, there is a linear trend upward from 61.3% to 62.4%. It has not reached the level from just prior to Covid: 63.3%. The trend is upward and by my calculations approximately 55% of the loss in participation has been regained. As far I know there is no gold standard for economic recovery over time, but this seems like a positive trend.
I’m on a phone so don’t have access to analytic tools, but using a different source from yours: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc you can see that the trend in upwards for both housing and non-housing debt from 2013 Q2 to 2022 Q4 with some to-early-to-tell signs that both trends are flattening somewhat. I’m pretty sure that this state of affairs would analytically struggle to point to Joe Biden as the cause.
Thank you for your response. The labor force participation rate has been flat since March: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate
John,
I think there are a number of ways to analyze and discuss this so first let me say that you are correct that the labor participation rate has been flat since March. I also think it might be still too early to tell whether or not this is a change in the general trend since January 2021. I would suppose that if the current rate holds for X (some arbitrary) length of time then the general trend line would flatten and your point would have more confirmatory evidence.
However, in looking at The Bureau of Labor and Statistics site you can see that there are umpteen factors that can be analyzed and it is unclear to me (not being an economist) what factors meaningfully interact to give a ‘true’ picture of the economy. Also, no matter what statistics you apply, I don’t think that data alone can tell a meaningful story without having some theoretical framework to judge against.
With those grains of salt taken, I looked at the participation data from the start of Trump’s term until the appropriate quarter for comparison to Biden’s tenure thus far. The percentage change for Trump was 0.48% and for Biden it is currently 2.12%. This is obviously only a rough comparison that may not be the right one to make, but I still see no evidence that Biden’s policies are failing at this point.