I think there are a number of ways to analyze and discuss this so first let me say that you are correct that the labor participation rate has been flat since March. I also think it might be still too early to tell whether or not this is a change in the general trend since January 2021. I would suppose that if the current rate holds …
I think there are a number of ways to analyze and discuss this so first let me say that you are correct that the labor participation rate has been flat since March. I also think it might be still too early to tell whether or not this is a change in the general trend since January 2021. I would suppose that if the current rate holds for X (some arbitrary) length of time then the general trend line would flatten and your point would have more confirmatory evidence.
However, in looking at The Bureau of Labor and Statistics site you can see that there are umpteen factors that can be analyzed and it is unclear to me (not being an economist) what factors meaningfully interact to give a ‘true’ picture of the economy. Also, no matter what statistics you apply, I don’t think that data alone can tell a meaningful story without having some theoretical framework to judge against.
With those grains of salt taken, I looked at the participation data from the start of Trump’s term until the appropriate quarter for comparison to Biden’s tenure thus far. The percentage change for Trump was 0.48% and for Biden it is currently 2.12%. This is obviously only a rough comparison that may not be the right one to make, but I still see no evidence that Biden’s policies are failing at this point.
John,
I think there are a number of ways to analyze and discuss this so first let me say that you are correct that the labor participation rate has been flat since March. I also think it might be still too early to tell whether or not this is a change in the general trend since January 2021. I would suppose that if the current rate holds for X (some arbitrary) length of time then the general trend line would flatten and your point would have more confirmatory evidence.
However, in looking at The Bureau of Labor and Statistics site you can see that there are umpteen factors that can be analyzed and it is unclear to me (not being an economist) what factors meaningfully interact to give a ‘true’ picture of the economy. Also, no matter what statistics you apply, I don’t think that data alone can tell a meaningful story without having some theoretical framework to judge against.
With those grains of salt taken, I looked at the participation data from the start of Trump’s term until the appropriate quarter for comparison to Biden’s tenure thus far. The percentage change for Trump was 0.48% and for Biden it is currently 2.12%. This is obviously only a rough comparison that may not be the right one to make, but I still see no evidence that Biden’s policies are failing at this point.