The difference between Putin's Army and Stalin's Army is Putin's Army doesn't have a battalion of NKVD secret police troops behind every frontline unit, charged with summary execution of anyone who tried to retreat or who didn't advance fast enough. Units that were unsuccessful were taken out of the line and the officers and leading NCOs were then shot and the troops sent to penal battalions where they performed such duties as minefield clearance in the next attack - by running across the field ahead of the advance and "clearing" the mines. It was "perform or die" 77 years ago.
As to today's 11th Circuit decision, Joyce Vance observed at her Substack that "whoever wrote this decision enjoyed their work."
In the study of battles, it's commonly observed that in each battle, there comes a time - despite whatever hard effort remains - where one side cannot lose and the other side cannot stop losing. I think maybe, perhaps, possibly, today is that day in our war with Trump. As Napoleon observed at the Battle of Austerlitz, "Never interrupt an enemy who is defeating himself."
Please accept usual “sizzlin” as well as additional praise of brilliant.
It’s has been so valuable to me to have military historian insight into the many battles being waged. And then add Professor Richardson’s uncanny ability to link historical relevance to present day.
Both insights giving a window to solutions.
Grateful every day for Substack authors. And the forums created.
Yeah, the two best armies Russia ever put in the field was 1812 and World War 2. Overall the best was 1812, which had good leadership as was shown in the fights from then to Waterloo.
Wonderful book, full of real people, not invented characters. But then, many of them are based on members of Tolstoy's family. Boris' wedding proposal, unveiling the painting before Moscow, Kutuzov reviewing the prisoners -- classic scenes!
Hmmm - please elaborate! One thing is for sure - there has been no reporting what so ever as to exactly why he took these documents. If I know Trump, it was for nefarious reasons.
(no negative intended personally): can we stop using the term "conspiracy theory"? These are not theories.
In everyday use, the word "theory" often means an untested hunch, or a guess without supporting evidence. But for scientists, a theory has nearly the opposite meaning. A theory is a well-substantiated explanation of an aspect of the natural world that can incorporate laws, hypotheses and facts.
So can we call them "conspiracy hunches" or "conspiracy guesses", or best of all "fictionalized bullshit"?
Let's stick with the scientific definition of the word.
As in little old ladies yacking over the fence as they hang the days laundry out to dry in the sweet fresh air you could actually enjoy breathing on the newest retractable clothesline of the 1950's!
I agree that the scientific sense of "theory" and it's standard of evidence supporting confidence rather than case-closed certainty, needs way more public exposure and understanding. That said, I think the word "theory" as speculation is OK so long as as we don't let speculation does not get ahead of itself. I have zero evidence of what Trump may have been up to except echoing James Wheaton above, he has proven abundantly that he is irresponsible as hell, and tends to press his own selfish interests over that of the common weal; which is pretty much the modern orientation of his whole party. That's my theory.
😳 that thought crossed my mind when it happened! Did they do an autopsy? Or do you suppose that’s why she was buried on a golf course so exhuming the body would be more difficult ? Yikes!
Well he wouldn’t want actual truths to be revealed would he?! tfg has just been one nightmare after another! I long for the day we no longer hear his name or hear his idiotic versions of the “truth”. 🙏
Great insight today and brilliant quote about Austerlitz.
But from the beginning of this latest Russian fiasco I have marveled at Putin’s demonstrations of the brilliance of Sun Tzu’s “Art of War.”
The Dictator has missed every requirement for victory of the ancient advice. The summoning of Ill prepared troops is the frosting on the cake.
But Putin obviously used poor Intelligence to plan the invasion, devised terrible supply chokepoints, created animus in the Ukrainians by destructive artillery / rocket attacks, had superannuated battlefield tactics and insufficient armaments all of which point to continuing self destruction.
I’m sure Clausewitz’ warnings can add layers of derision on this war but for all the destructiveness of the war the Trump wannabe certainly provides a mountain of rich material for the students of war.
Putin's war against Ukraine now and his efforts to get Russian men to fight as detailed by historian Timothy Snyder.
'Putin knows that most Russians do not really care about Ukraine, except in the sense of enjoying a war on television. But the war is going so badly that the television version is getting hard to sustain. Putin needs some Russians to get up from the couch and fight, and has announced a “partial mobilization.” To convince Russian men to fight, and families not to rebel, he has altered his characterization of the war. It was once a “special military operation” that was to destroy Ukraine in three days. Now it is a grand struggle to defend civilization, etc. But a defensive war must be fought on Russian territory.'
'Ergo, Putin must present Ukrainian territory that the Ukrainians are taking back as Russian territory; and ergo, he must have a media exercise to pretend that “referendums” have taken place, and that people in Ukrainian regions want to join Russia. Presto-chango-russo: a tyrant’s wish, a few lines of script on Russian television, a few lines of code on Russian media websites, and territories become Russian! This quavering postmodern improvisation will convince no one beyond Russia, and it might not even convince Russians. But now that Putin has decided, the media exercise to support his magical thinking must go forward.'
'At a certain moment, Russian media will just declare that (something like) 97% of the people of Donetsk region want to join Russia, 96% in Luhansk, 86% in Zaporizhia, 80% in Kherson. These numbers will be invented, made up. They are already in a file somewhere. There will be no more reason to report those numbers in a sentence with the word "referendum" or “vote” in it than there would be to report my claim, made here, that 97% of the inhabitants of Brooklyn wish to join Mississippi.'
'It is beside the point to say that such numbers are implausible, because they will just be invented. When we already know that something is made up, we don’t usually stop to think whether we might have believed it anyway. But yes, the fictions provided in the media exercise will be implausible. And deliberately so. The way Russian electoral propaganda works is to tell a lie that everyone knows is a lie, and then to show by force that there is no alternative to living as though the lie were true. So we will get North Korean numbers, because that is how the system works.
So this Russian media exercise is ludicrous. But it is not funny. It is obscene.'
'What about the dead? What about the more than 100,000 Ukrainian the Russians killed in Mariupol? How should we think about their “votes”? What about the more than three million Ukrainian citizens whom Russia has forcibly deported, many of whom are now in camps? In the regions where the media exercise will be applied, Russia has destroyed city after city. Everywhere Russia occupied territory, it leaves behind mass graves. When I was in Ukraine a couple of weeks ago, I visited one of them, as well as the homes of people who had lost family members. While I was in Ukraine, the Ukrainian army liberated much of Kharkiv region, and now we know of more mass graves, for example in Izyum.'
'That is the world in which the media exercise is undertaken. When Russia claims that huge majorities of Ukrainians want to join Russia, they are claiming that Ukrainians like death pits, that Ukrainians like torture, that Ukrainians like deportation, that Ukrainians like to have their homes destroyed and their cities obliterated.'
'The ongoing Russian media exercise ("referendums") is an obscenity. When Russian media announces the invented “results,” Moscow will be claiming that Ukrainians wish to celebrate their own ongoing genocide by joining the country that is perpetrating it. Such an attempt at public humiliation is despicable. The Russian media exercise is nothing more and nothing less than an element of ongoing Russian war crimes.' (TimothySnyder, Thinking about...)
Ironically, Napoleon apparently forgot that advice when he invaded Russia.
That said, the closer Putin and Trump come to destruction, the more dangerous they become. Putin is calculating and Trump is just off the rails, but they're both narcissistic sociopaths who clearly care for nothing aside from their narrow self interest and nobody other than themselves. They're both capable of destroying everything around them in a final petty act of revenge.
Yes, old Napoleon ended up proving his own aphorism.
And yes, there's a well-known story about Putin's "Yard Punk" childhood where he chased a rat in the apartment complex and cornered it, and then it bared its teeth, leaped out and chased him. He says it was the most important learning experience he ever had.
Trump is not interested in winning what is obviously the inevitable predictability of his well-deserved trouncing’s of all his various court battles, (envision him hanging from a tree in the middle of oblivion, his mushy belly jiggling upon the adipose flap of his “muffin-top”, his eyes just beginning to pop out as the noose of rough oversized rope he has been knitting for his last seventy years nearly comes to his inevitable castigated betekenis, popping, snapping, squeaking…Oh! Wait…that painfully vented cacophony actually might have been his last pronouncement most generously bequeathed unto us in the form of a series of disgusting off-tune staccato-like flatulent exclamations), he just wants to prolong his farce judicialnesses until the repugnacious “Calvary” saves his big fat lily white bigoterd ass this November
Thank you for saving me trouble of recounting Stalin’s efforts to stiffen the Red Army, which were aided by the fact that the German invaders were foreign, and incredibly (in the true sense) brutal.
Poor rump and putin, the laws of physics are catching up to them. Permanently etched in my mind in the early reign of rump was the spectacle of both of them strutting together like swollen cocks, drenched in their glory, backed by their positions of power. Ironically, both chumps are presently experiencing the law of nature as it pertains to the slowly boiling frog. If thrown in a pot of boiling water the frog instinctively jumps out. However, if the frog is placed in cold water and the heat is slowly but continuously turned up, the frog will ignore the increasing heat and boil to death. What's happening to both of them is truly biblical....
A common problem with criminals of all types is that if they manage to get away with their crimes for long enough, they start to think of themselves as invulnerable. At which point they get sloppy and the slope starts to get slippery.
Putin still has his finger on the largest nuclear arsenal in the world....and just what was tfg doing with all those highly classified nuclear documents???
Well, yes, those are the nightmare scenarios I mentioned in another comment. A narcissistic sociopath is at their most dangerous when they see the ground is collapsing underneath them.
Putin's army does not have NKVD backstop units -- yet -- but it should be noted that there are some reports that on the Kherson front rear units are taking positions on the left bank of the Dnipro to keep Russian units trapped in Kherson from retreating across the river. So, no NKVD troops yet, but I suspect they will be resurrected soon.
I don't believe Putin is as clueless as Trump, but they do seem to share a strong tendency to double down on a weak hand. It is truly discouraging to realize how much our lives depend on the moods and whims of such scoundrels.
TRUMP – PUTIN: HOW ARE THEY DOING? SNAPSHOTS OF EACH TAKEN FROM THE FRONT PAGES OF THE NEW YORK TIME AND THE WASHINGTON POST
- The American public’s views of former President Donald J. Trump have remained remarkably stable across a number of different measures in recent months, even as he faces multiple investigations and as he remains a central figure in the midterm elections, according to the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
- Overall, 44 percent of voters viewed Mr. Trump favorably, and 53 percent viewed him unfavorably. The recent poll was fielded early this month, after news of the Justice Department’s inquiry into Mr. Trump’s handling of confidential documents but before the New York attorney general announced she was suing Mr. Trump and his family business.
- That level of Trump support has effectively been unchanged since the last Times/Siena poll, which was fielded in July amid televised hearings by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol. It was also fundamentally similar to levels of support Times/Siena polls and other surveys found in recent years. (NYTimes,Sept. 22, 2022)
Washington Post, September 21, 2022 at 5:59 p.m. EDT,
- Over 1,000 Russian Protesters Arrested After Putin Mobilizes More Troops
- Putin drafts up to 300,000 reservists, backs annexation amid war losses
- Putin’s decision to order the partial mobilization, to call up as many as 300,000 reservists, reflected his diminishing options in trying to reverse some awful defeats on the battlefield, including a lightning Ukrainian offensive that forced Russian troops to retreat from the northeast Kharkiv region.
- While Putin stopped short of declaring a full mobilization, which would entail a national draft, the partial mobilization immediately began upending the lives of reservists.
- Within hours of President Vladimir Putin’s speech declaring a partial military mobilization on Wednesday, men all over Russia — including some who had tried for months to ignore the messy war in Ukraine — suddenly found their lives thrown into chaos as they were summoned to duty. The men, mostly reservists under 35 who served in the army and have junior military ranks, were handed written notices in their offices or at their homes. In some cases, they had their identity documents checked on the street and were told to appear for a health check. Others got orders by telephone.
- Anxious relatives, meanwhile, began searching for ways to flee the country or otherwise avoid their loved ones being called for service. Flights to the few cities abroad still offering direct service to Russia — most destinations have been cut off by sanctions — were suddenly sold out.
- In response to Putin’s decree, criticism of the war, which had been rising internationally and at home despite a severe Kremlin crackdown on dissent, suddenly burst into the open.
- Relatively contained but significant protests erupted not only in the big cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, but also in Novosibirsk in remote Siberia. By Wednesday evening, more than 1,000 people had been arrested across the country, according to OVD-Info, an independent group monitoring protest activity in Russia — a remarkable number given that criticism of the war is potentially punishable by long prison sentences.
- In the capital, hundreds chanted “Let our children live!” and “Send Putin to the trenches!” as they walked along Arbat Street. Videos on social media showed police officers arresting demonstrators and loading them onto police vans and buses, including a man shouting “No to war
- In St. Petersburg, police officers were seen beating protesters with batons and harshly breaking up crowds. At the small protest in Novosibirsk, a man was detained as he shouted at police officers, “I don’t want to die for Putin and you!”
- An online petition against mobilization, initiated last spring, suddenly spiked to more than 292,000 signatures.
Are they movable? Will the devastating details of the NY Attorney General's sweeping lawsuit that accused Donald J. Trump, his family business and three of his children of lying to lenders and insurers by fraudulently overvaluing his assets by billions of dollars have any influence on Trump's loyal following? What if Trump's base remains as is? We imagine it lessening, what if it grows?
To what extent is Putin's position threatened by discord within Russia from top to bottom?
According to Swedish Radio the Russians have made a pun of Russian for 'mobilization'; with a slight change it means 'burialization' - The image of 'partial mobilization' would then be a man putting his head in the sand!
Hi Olof, I had a terrible reply to you and deleted it as unsuitable given the misery of the reservists and the rest of the Russian people. Putin's a world class monster. We've got a collection of our own.
Fighting men aren't Putin's only worry about his war against Ukraine. As I know that your head is not in the sand, Olof, I think you may be interested in the following
— from CNN
'Vladimir Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia has no way of getting those new troops the training and weapons they need to fight in Ukraine any time soon.'
'With his invasion of Ukraine faltering badly, the Russian President on Wednesday announced the immediate “partial mobilization” of Russian citizens. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Russian television that the country will call up 300,000 reservists.'
'If they end up facing Ukrainian guns on the front lines, they are likely to become the newest casualties in the invasion Putin started more than seven months ago and that has seen the Russian military fail at almost every aspect of modern war.'
“The Russian military is not currently equipped to rapidly and effectively deploy 300,000 reservists,” said Alex Lord, Europe and Eurasia specialist at the Sibylline strategic analysis firm in London.'
“Russia is already struggling to effectively equip its professional forces in Ukraine, following significant equipment losses during the war,” Lord said.'
'The recent Ukrainian offensive, which has seen Kyiv recapture thousands of square meters of territory, has taken a significant toll.'
'The Institute for the Study of War earlier this week said analysis from Western experts and Ukrainian intelligence found Russia had lost 50% to 90% of its strength in some units due to that offensive, and vast amounts of armor.'
'Russia's military divided as Putin struggles to deal with Ukraine's counteroffensive, US sources say.
And that comes on top of staggering equipment losses over the course of the war.'
'The open source intelligence website Oryx, using only losses confirmed by photographic or video evidence, has found Russian forces have lost more than 6,300 vehicles, including 1,168 tanks, since the fighting began.'
“In practice, they don’t have enough modern equipment … for that many new troops,” said Jakub Janovsky, a military analyst who contributes to the Oryx blog.'
'JT Crump, CEO of Sibylline and a veteran of 20 years in the British military, said Russia is beginning to suffer ammunition shortages in some calibers and is looking for sources of key components so it can repair or build replacements for weapons lost on the battlefield.'
'It’s not just tanks and armored personnel carriers that have been lost.'
I saw the cost of plane tickets out of Russia....incredible. Maybe this is what will push the Russian public past the breaking point. As for death star's cult, we can't move those true believers. What I observe is dead silence in terms of post from my ex-classmate in Indiana about January 6th and all the investigations. Before she was busy finding ways to defend all the nonsense. Political ads here have become nasty. I do like the one the shows the R candidate in our new Congressional district had his girlfriend have an abortion, dropped her off there and paid for it. Mostly what we see from Rs is pictures of tents, protests, noise about D's defunding police. The latest from our D candidate in our district tells how she voted for much additional money for the state police. I do think the races will be close. I hope Ds prevail.
Bertrand Russell said that the challenge for human beings is to deal with being both the most important thing in the universe while being the least significant at the same time.
I have thought that for some time....every time I see either of those two monsters on TV, I think with only these two, so much destruction. Then add a few others and we have a very small number of people causing problems the world over.
Yes, it is the malignant narcissists who create most of the havoc in the world. That so many people can't see what is so clear in the former guy, suggests that they are either also so troubled or have many, mostly men in their lives who are the same. Women, in particular will literally not allow themselves to see this disturbance in men, so as to protect their fragile egos. It is astounding how many of these guys bubble to the top.
I have noticed this and as a woman, I have heard many times about being careful around frail male egos. And I have heard many times strong women who have stood up being called a certain name.
The most dangerous time in a woman's life is when she leaves a male partner. Women's lives absolutely depend upon appeasing narcissistic men. Ukraine, like a strong woman, stood up to Russia and is now paying the price. Godspeed.
Yes. So often these kinds of men are actually trying to compensate for fragile egos and we all pay a price for that. People who are narcissistically disturbed can't stand facing their own frailties and flaws. It is experienced as just too humiliating. We saw the evidence clearly with Putin, shirtless, astride a horse. If they weren't so dangerous I would just feel embarrassed for them as they display their sense of inadequacy so blatantly.
If Putin were declared a terrorist in spite of being a head of state, could he not be taken out like Osama bin Laden? It makes no sense that one man can be responsible for killing so many. Our laws make no sense in this matter. And evidently the UN's rules don't have an answer either -- he still has veto power. Can't they get around or change the rule if one member goes rogue?
Listened to Trump interview on Fox Noise linked by Heather. He is scared and soiling his panties! If this is his defense, which he can only make by taking the witness stand, that he had no 'intent' to commit a 'specific intent' crime related to Classified documents because he misunderstood the law (see quote below), he is cooked! First, what a wonderful sight it would be seeing him on the witness stand forced to answer questions under cross examination. (Think how poorly it turned out recently for Alex Jones, LMAO!) Second, we know DOJ has a list of people who told The Orange Clown there was a process to declassify and that he was violating the law by taking the documents and not returning them when asked. Perhaps the 'Litigation Dam' is breaking and he will be flooded with indictments? Heather wrote: "Trump said: 'I declassified the documents when they left the White House…. There doesn’t have to be a process as I understand it. You’re the president of the United States, you can declassify…even by thinking about it.'”
The NY lawsuit is civil and won't put anyone behind bars. But it has this great virtue: it can't be stopped by Dumpie's judges, since it's in state court. State judges won't be impressed by Dumpie's teams of bargain-basement lawyers or their slavish arguments.
Which brings up another point: When his lawyers in Florida refused to say in court that Dumpie had declassified documents, why was that? Because it's one thing to lie to the press, quite another to repeat that lie before a judge. His lawyers believe he's been lying to them.
I also believe the civil suit’s virtue is that it will cost him financially. Money is his god, so forcing him to pay and to limit his future financial options is a real slap to him, in my humble opinion.
Don’t dismiss crowd funding. His acolytes will pay his fine as a Seig Heil demonstration of loyalty, and so they can get the little MAGA hat lapel pin and a certificate of appreciate signed with a facsimile of Der Donnie’s signiture
From the number of times DONATE appears on his communications, it would appear that he himself doesn't dismiss crowd funding. It may be slacking off; he's now wearing a Q badge and campaigning for QAnon. (Now that really is presidential!)
trump’s defense says: “But that’s how real estate is done!” It reminded me of the “Boys will be boys” defense from the Access Hollywood video. And it will work with his supporters. His supporters like an organized-crime-flavor to their leader.
Anyone with a scrap of common sense knows he has been lying about everything. The current lawyers aren’t willing to risk their licenses to further the lies.
And THIS invaded the White House. And the Capitol. The Lincoln Memorial. A step by step desecration of the noblest symbols of America's aims. Not the church - that was just a prop for the photographs, that and a Bible that wasn't his anyway.
I think the NY civil suit is just the tip of the iceberg. The Big Turkey has openly committed multiple felonies, and I think Garland will make a point of getting him indicted for every one of them. A bit slowly, perhaps, but carefully and memorably. The Jan. 6th hearings have just been a pretty good warm-up act, kind of like the Monkees for Jimi Hendrix. I mean, Are You Experienced?
The best thing about the NY lawsuit is, if he loses, that will be the end of Trump Org. and therefore Trump. I don't think the lawyers representing him in the Mar-a-Lago classified papers case will be representing him in the NY state case. Hmm, maybe we should call it Deflategate? Also, Michael Cohen is claiming that he could be on the hook for 2-3 times the 250 million that is headlined.
Yesterday's headlines all felt wonderful but we are still in for a long legal slog. Also, I think he has ramped up the donation appeals and gotten the distraction mill revved up.
I picture Johnny Carson in his Freat Swamy outfit when I think of tfg declassifying docs by “thinking” of it. I wonder if he hurt himself - after all that brain work.
If he can’t “think” the docs unclassified all at once, it would indeed require brain work to “declassify” each one of hundreds. He was speaking to the most ignorant of his supporters when he claimed there was not a process for declassification.
The difference between Putin's Army and Stalin's Army is Putin's Army doesn't have a battalion of NKVD secret police troops behind every frontline unit, charged with summary execution of anyone who tried to retreat or who didn't advance fast enough. Units that were unsuccessful were taken out of the line and the officers and leading NCOs were then shot and the troops sent to penal battalions where they performed such duties as minefield clearance in the next attack - by running across the field ahead of the advance and "clearing" the mines. It was "perform or die" 77 years ago.
As to today's 11th Circuit decision, Joyce Vance observed at her Substack that "whoever wrote this decision enjoyed their work."
In the study of battles, it's commonly observed that in each battle, there comes a time - despite whatever hard effort remains - where one side cannot lose and the other side cannot stop losing. I think maybe, perhaps, possibly, today is that day in our war with Trump. As Napoleon observed at the Battle of Austerlitz, "Never interrupt an enemy who is defeating himself."
Morning TC.
Please accept usual “sizzlin” as well as additional praise of brilliant.
It’s has been so valuable to me to have military historian insight into the many battles being waged. And then add Professor Richardson’s uncanny ability to link historical relevance to present day.
Both insights giving a window to solutions.
Grateful every day for Substack authors. And the forums created.
Unita. 🗽
And that's what Mikhail Kutuzof must have been thinking as Napoleon's army rolled merrily into Moscow.
Yeah, the two best armies Russia ever put in the field was 1812 and World War 2. Overall the best was 1812, which had good leadership as was shown in the fights from then to Waterloo.
According to Tolstoy, the Russian army did best when it _didn't_ fight, but just watched the French army disintegrate.
Am reading War & Peace right now - about 300 pages in.
Ah, I have not read this in a while. This is an appropriate time to pick it up again! Thanks for the reminder.
Wonderful book, full of real people, not invented characters. But then, many of them are based on members of Tolstoy's family. Boris' wedding proposal, unveiling the painting before Moscow, Kutuzov reviewing the prisoners -- classic scenes!
I am loving it but afraid to read the comments - I'm only 300 pages in.
“Umm, Pardon’ General, when do we get to eat?”
Am reading Peter the Great right now. About 225 pages in. So much in common with what's going on today.
See Edward Tufte's poster "Napoleon's March" https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/posters
It tells the story of the War of 1812 in one page.
A book I must read!
TC,
If Trump sold what I think he did to Saudi Arabia, he has WAY more to worry about than the DOJ.
And, I think he already received his heads up........his ex wife.
: -) How is that for good Conspiracy Theory?
Hmmm - please elaborate! One thing is for sure - there has been no reporting what so ever as to exactly why he took these documents. If I know Trump, it was for nefarious reasons.
James,
In the NY Times, at one point, they raised the possiblity that (other countries) Nuclear Capability had been pilfered by Trump.
As soon as I read about that I thought about the $2 Billion that Jared, a never even tried it before "investment manager" received from the Saudis.
Saudi Arabia has long sought details of Israel's nuclear capability all of which came from the US.
IF Trump sold out Israel, then, based on Israel's history, Trump won't last long.
His ex wife was already found at the bottom of a long stairwell in apartment she had lived in for many years with no incident.
ALL of this is conspiracy theory based on a one time NY Times speculative article.
Interesting speculation.
(no negative intended personally): can we stop using the term "conspiracy theory"? These are not theories.
In everyday use, the word "theory" often means an untested hunch, or a guess without supporting evidence. But for scientists, a theory has nearly the opposite meaning. A theory is a well-substantiated explanation of an aspect of the natural world that can incorporate laws, hypotheses and facts.
So can we call them "conspiracy hunches" or "conspiracy guesses", or best of all "fictionalized bullshit"?
Let's stick with the scientific definition of the word.
I vote for “fictionalized bullshit.” The term “conspiracy theory” is a gross (in every sense) glorification of its intended meaning.
TCinLA
GOSSIP
As in little old ladies yacking over the fence as they hang the days laundry out to dry in the sweet fresh air you could actually enjoy breathing on the newest retractable clothesline of the 1950's!
https://www.grainger.com/product/15V286?gucid=N:N:PS:Paid:GGL:CSM-2295:4P7A1P:20501231&gclid=Cj0KCQjwj7CZBhDHARIsAPPWv3eOf8IhJaAcRCpSf7jA4wKBGbLX8HQTMMMFqQtJdNjj0h9Zrf_jDOQaAvXuEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
"Conspiracy narrative" is probably more accurate, IMO.
I agree that the scientific sense of "theory" and it's standard of evidence supporting confidence rather than case-closed certainty, needs way more public exposure and understanding. That said, I think the word "theory" as speculation is OK so long as as we don't let speculation does not get ahead of itself. I have zero evidence of what Trump may have been up to except echoing James Wheaton above, he has proven abundantly that he is irresponsible as hell, and tends to press his own selfish interests over that of the common weal; which is pretty much the modern orientation of his whole party. That's my theory.
That would be good, yes. The anti-science crowd loves to misuse the word "theory" for their own ends.
james wheaton (Jay)
FOLLOW THE MONEY, Eh!?
Yes - especially with Trump.
Always!
😱 I’ve been wondering who pushed her!
😳 that thought crossed my mind when it happened! Did they do an autopsy? Or do you suppose that’s why she was buried on a golf course so exhuming the body would be more difficult ? Yikes!
And not just any golf course, but his golf course.
Cecile Thomson
Replacing a really big divot may get ugly, Eh!?
I'm curious as to what you mean when you refer to the above . . . he’s received his heads up …. his ex wife?
Yes. Exactly. A little heads up of what is in store for him.
There are several ways to “read” this - hopefully Justice will prevail!
Well he wouldn’t want actual truths to be revealed would he?! tfg has just been one nightmare after another! I long for the day we no longer hear his name or hear his idiotic versions of the “truth”. 🙏
Debbie Danks
Or show photos/videos...YIKES!!!!
Great insight today and brilliant quote about Austerlitz.
But from the beginning of this latest Russian fiasco I have marveled at Putin’s demonstrations of the brilliance of Sun Tzu’s “Art of War.”
The Dictator has missed every requirement for victory of the ancient advice. The summoning of Ill prepared troops is the frosting on the cake.
But Putin obviously used poor Intelligence to plan the invasion, devised terrible supply chokepoints, created animus in the Ukrainians by destructive artillery / rocket attacks, had superannuated battlefield tactics and insufficient armaments all of which point to continuing self destruction.
I’m sure Clausewitz’ warnings can add layers of derision on this war but for all the destructiveness of the war the Trump wannabe certainly provides a mountain of rich material for the students of war.
Putin's war against Ukraine now and his efforts to get Russian men to fight as detailed by historian Timothy Snyder.
'Putin knows that most Russians do not really care about Ukraine, except in the sense of enjoying a war on television. But the war is going so badly that the television version is getting hard to sustain. Putin needs some Russians to get up from the couch and fight, and has announced a “partial mobilization.” To convince Russian men to fight, and families not to rebel, he has altered his characterization of the war. It was once a “special military operation” that was to destroy Ukraine in three days. Now it is a grand struggle to defend civilization, etc. But a defensive war must be fought on Russian territory.'
'Ergo, Putin must present Ukrainian territory that the Ukrainians are taking back as Russian territory; and ergo, he must have a media exercise to pretend that “referendums” have taken place, and that people in Ukrainian regions want to join Russia. Presto-chango-russo: a tyrant’s wish, a few lines of script on Russian television, a few lines of code on Russian media websites, and territories become Russian! This quavering postmodern improvisation will convince no one beyond Russia, and it might not even convince Russians. But now that Putin has decided, the media exercise to support his magical thinking must go forward.'
'At a certain moment, Russian media will just declare that (something like) 97% of the people of Donetsk region want to join Russia, 96% in Luhansk, 86% in Zaporizhia, 80% in Kherson. These numbers will be invented, made up. They are already in a file somewhere. There will be no more reason to report those numbers in a sentence with the word "referendum" or “vote” in it than there would be to report my claim, made here, that 97% of the inhabitants of Brooklyn wish to join Mississippi.'
'It is beside the point to say that such numbers are implausible, because they will just be invented. When we already know that something is made up, we don’t usually stop to think whether we might have believed it anyway. But yes, the fictions provided in the media exercise will be implausible. And deliberately so. The way Russian electoral propaganda works is to tell a lie that everyone knows is a lie, and then to show by force that there is no alternative to living as though the lie were true. So we will get North Korean numbers, because that is how the system works.
So this Russian media exercise is ludicrous. But it is not funny. It is obscene.'
'What about the dead? What about the more than 100,000 Ukrainian the Russians killed in Mariupol? How should we think about their “votes”? What about the more than three million Ukrainian citizens whom Russia has forcibly deported, many of whom are now in camps? In the regions where the media exercise will be applied, Russia has destroyed city after city. Everywhere Russia occupied territory, it leaves behind mass graves. When I was in Ukraine a couple of weeks ago, I visited one of them, as well as the homes of people who had lost family members. While I was in Ukraine, the Ukrainian army liberated much of Kharkiv region, and now we know of more mass graves, for example in Izyum.'
'That is the world in which the media exercise is undertaken. When Russia claims that huge majorities of Ukrainians want to join Russia, they are claiming that Ukrainians like death pits, that Ukrainians like torture, that Ukrainians like deportation, that Ukrainians like to have their homes destroyed and their cities obliterated.'
'The ongoing Russian media exercise ("referendums") is an obscenity. When Russian media announces the invented “results,” Moscow will be claiming that Ukrainians wish to celebrate their own ongoing genocide by joining the country that is perpetrating it. Such an attempt at public humiliation is despicable. The Russian media exercise is nothing more and nothing less than an element of ongoing Russian war crimes.' (TimothySnyder, Thinking about...)
Oh!
Fern!
You win!
Congratulation for the longest and most unoriginal comment today...why not just post the link that you copied from, Eh!?
Your presumption that we do not read almost seems you may be projecting a message upon us?
Your mouth to God's ears in respect of the failed insurrectionist.
Ah, Nappy Darling, “food for my horses, mud and snow for my men”
Another difference worth noting is that Ukrainian forces are a little gentler with Russian POWs than the Nazis were with the Soviets.
Ironically, Napoleon apparently forgot that advice when he invaded Russia.
That said, the closer Putin and Trump come to destruction, the more dangerous they become. Putin is calculating and Trump is just off the rails, but they're both narcissistic sociopaths who clearly care for nothing aside from their narrow self interest and nobody other than themselves. They're both capable of destroying everything around them in a final petty act of revenge.
Like President Clark in "Babylon 5": scorched earth. https://youtu.be/6k-d7-l5v3A
Yes, old Napoleon ended up proving his own aphorism.
And yes, there's a well-known story about Putin's "Yard Punk" childhood where he chased a rat in the apartment complex and cornered it, and then it bared its teeth, leaped out and chased him. He says it was the most important learning experience he ever had.
Apparently Vlad forgot his lesson as well. He put Ukrainians in the same position as that cornered rat. And then was unprepared to be bitten.
TCinLA
A Napoleonic augmentation observation...
Trump is not interested in winning what is obviously the inevitable predictability of his well-deserved trouncing’s of all his various court battles, (envision him hanging from a tree in the middle of oblivion, his mushy belly jiggling upon the adipose flap of his “muffin-top”, his eyes just beginning to pop out as the noose of rough oversized rope he has been knitting for his last seventy years nearly comes to his inevitable castigated betekenis, popping, snapping, squeaking…Oh! Wait…that painfully vented cacophony actually might have been his last pronouncement most generously bequeathed unto us in the form of a series of disgusting off-tune staccato-like flatulent exclamations), he just wants to prolong his farce judicialnesses until the repugnacious “Calvary” saves his big fat lily white bigoterd ass this November
George,
Umm.....well written for sure. No doubt. But,...... just a bit too grisly for me.
And, I am a long time Steven King reader.
:-)
BWAHAHAHA!😂😂😂
Thank you for saving me trouble of recounting Stalin’s efforts to stiffen the Red Army, which were aided by the fact that the German invaders were foreign, and incredibly (in the true sense) brutal.
The economics term Escalation of Commitment / sunk cost fallacy / over commitment comes to mind.
Poor rump and putin, the laws of physics are catching up to them. Permanently etched in my mind in the early reign of rump was the spectacle of both of them strutting together like swollen cocks, drenched in their glory, backed by their positions of power. Ironically, both chumps are presently experiencing the law of nature as it pertains to the slowly boiling frog. If thrown in a pot of boiling water the frog instinctively jumps out. However, if the frog is placed in cold water and the heat is slowly but continuously turned up, the frog will ignore the increasing heat and boil to death. What's happening to both of them is truly biblical....
A common problem with criminals of all types is that if they manage to get away with their crimes for long enough, they start to think of themselves as invulnerable. At which point they get sloppy and the slope starts to get slippery.
Putin still has his finger on the largest nuclear arsenal in the world....and just what was tfg doing with all those highly classified nuclear documents???
Well, yes, those are the nightmare scenarios I mentioned in another comment. A narcissistic sociopath is at their most dangerous when they see the ground is collapsing underneath them.
that may yet happen
Yikes. Thanks for this. So much to learn in the world. So much under the radar
Putin's army does not have NKVD backstop units -- yet -- but it should be noted that there are some reports that on the Kherson front rear units are taking positions on the left bank of the Dnipro to keep Russian units trapped in Kherson from retreating across the river. So, no NKVD troops yet, but I suspect they will be resurrected soon.
I don't believe Putin is as clueless as Trump, but they do seem to share a strong tendency to double down on a weak hand. It is truly discouraging to realize how much our lives depend on the moods and whims of such scoundrels.
TRUMP – PUTIN: HOW ARE THEY DOING? SNAPSHOTS OF EACH TAKEN FROM THE FRONT PAGES OF THE NEW YORK TIME AND THE WASHINGTON POST
- The American public’s views of former President Donald J. Trump have remained remarkably stable across a number of different measures in recent months, even as he faces multiple investigations and as he remains a central figure in the midterm elections, according to the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
- Overall, 44 percent of voters viewed Mr. Trump favorably, and 53 percent viewed him unfavorably. The recent poll was fielded early this month, after news of the Justice Department’s inquiry into Mr. Trump’s handling of confidential documents but before the New York attorney general announced she was suing Mr. Trump and his family business.
- That level of Trump support has effectively been unchanged since the last Times/Siena poll, which was fielded in July amid televised hearings by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol. It was also fundamentally similar to levels of support Times/Siena polls and other surveys found in recent years. (NYTimes,Sept. 22, 2022)
Washington Post, September 21, 2022 at 5:59 p.m. EDT,
- Over 1,000 Russian Protesters Arrested After Putin Mobilizes More Troops
- Putin drafts up to 300,000 reservists, backs annexation amid war losses
- Putin’s decision to order the partial mobilization, to call up as many as 300,000 reservists, reflected his diminishing options in trying to reverse some awful defeats on the battlefield, including a lightning Ukrainian offensive that forced Russian troops to retreat from the northeast Kharkiv region.
- While Putin stopped short of declaring a full mobilization, which would entail a national draft, the partial mobilization immediately began upending the lives of reservists.
- Within hours of President Vladimir Putin’s speech declaring a partial military mobilization on Wednesday, men all over Russia — including some who had tried for months to ignore the messy war in Ukraine — suddenly found their lives thrown into chaos as they were summoned to duty. The men, mostly reservists under 35 who served in the army and have junior military ranks, were handed written notices in their offices or at their homes. In some cases, they had their identity documents checked on the street and were told to appear for a health check. Others got orders by telephone.
- Anxious relatives, meanwhile, began searching for ways to flee the country or otherwise avoid their loved ones being called for service. Flights to the few cities abroad still offering direct service to Russia — most destinations have been cut off by sanctions — were suddenly sold out.
- In response to Putin’s decree, criticism of the war, which had been rising internationally and at home despite a severe Kremlin crackdown on dissent, suddenly burst into the open.
- Relatively contained but significant protests erupted not only in the big cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, but also in Novosibirsk in remote Siberia. By Wednesday evening, more than 1,000 people had been arrested across the country, according to OVD-Info, an independent group monitoring protest activity in Russia — a remarkable number given that criticism of the war is potentially punishable by long prison sentences.
- In the capital, hundreds chanted “Let our children live!” and “Send Putin to the trenches!” as they walked along Arbat Street. Videos on social media showed police officers arresting demonstrators and loading them onto police vans and buses, including a man shouting “No to war
- In St. Petersburg, police officers were seen beating protesters with batons and harshly breaking up crowds. At the small protest in Novosibirsk, a man was detained as he shouted at police officers, “I don’t want to die for Putin and you!”
- An online petition against mobilization, initiated last spring, suddenly spiked to more than 292,000 signatures.
Are they movable? Will the devastating details of the NY Attorney General's sweeping lawsuit that accused Donald J. Trump, his family business and three of his children of lying to lenders and insurers by fraudulently overvaluing his assets by billions of dollars have any influence on Trump's loyal following? What if Trump's base remains as is? We imagine it lessening, what if it grows?
To what extent is Putin's position threatened by discord within Russia from top to bottom?
According to Swedish Radio the Russians have made a pun of Russian for 'mobilization'; with a slight change it means 'burialization' - The image of 'partial mobilization' would then be a man putting his head in the sand!
Hi Olof, I had a terrible reply to you and deleted it as unsuitable given the misery of the reservists and the rest of the Russian people. Putin's a world class monster. We've got a collection of our own.
See you later!
Fighting men aren't Putin's only worry about his war against Ukraine. As I know that your head is not in the sand, Olof, I think you may be interested in the following
— from CNN
'Vladimir Putin can call up all the troops he wants, but Russia has no way of getting those new troops the training and weapons they need to fight in Ukraine any time soon.'
'With his invasion of Ukraine faltering badly, the Russian President on Wednesday announced the immediate “partial mobilization” of Russian citizens. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Russian television that the country will call up 300,000 reservists.'
'If they end up facing Ukrainian guns on the front lines, they are likely to become the newest casualties in the invasion Putin started more than seven months ago and that has seen the Russian military fail at almost every aspect of modern war.'
“The Russian military is not currently equipped to rapidly and effectively deploy 300,000 reservists,” said Alex Lord, Europe and Eurasia specialist at the Sibylline strategic analysis firm in London.'
“Russia is already struggling to effectively equip its professional forces in Ukraine, following significant equipment losses during the war,” Lord said.'
'The recent Ukrainian offensive, which has seen Kyiv recapture thousands of square meters of territory, has taken a significant toll.'
'The Institute for the Study of War earlier this week said analysis from Western experts and Ukrainian intelligence found Russia had lost 50% to 90% of its strength in some units due to that offensive, and vast amounts of armor.'
'Russia's military divided as Putin struggles to deal with Ukraine's counteroffensive, US sources say.
And that comes on top of staggering equipment losses over the course of the war.'
'The open source intelligence website Oryx, using only losses confirmed by photographic or video evidence, has found Russian forces have lost more than 6,300 vehicles, including 1,168 tanks, since the fighting began.'
“In practice, they don’t have enough modern equipment … for that many new troops,” said Jakub Janovsky, a military analyst who contributes to the Oryx blog.'
'JT Crump, CEO of Sibylline and a veteran of 20 years in the British military, said Russia is beginning to suffer ammunition shortages in some calibers and is looking for sources of key components so it can repair or build replacements for weapons lost on the battlefield.'
'It’s not just tanks and armored personnel carriers that have been lost.'
Fern, you know you ROCK!
Kim, I have thought about you and missed you. You will hear from me -- you know where tomorrow . Later.
I saw the cost of plane tickets out of Russia....incredible. Maybe this is what will push the Russian public past the breaking point. As for death star's cult, we can't move those true believers. What I observe is dead silence in terms of post from my ex-classmate in Indiana about January 6th and all the investigations. Before she was busy finding ways to defend all the nonsense. Political ads here have become nasty. I do like the one the shows the R candidate in our new Congressional district had his girlfriend have an abortion, dropped her off there and paid for it. Mostly what we see from Rs is pictures of tents, protests, noise about D's defunding police. The latest from our D candidate in our district tells how she voted for much additional money for the state police. I do think the races will be close. I hope Ds prevail.
Thank you for your reporting, Michele.
You are welcome. I just saw on another site a reference to someone dying in Russia of "tall building syndrome."
Thank You Fern!
Frightening . Thanks for this info Fern
A strong ego resists reason.
Truth. Perception is reality to a closed, narcissistic, self-absorbed mind.
As demonstrated repeatedly by tfg.
More like a sick ego than a strong one.
Yes, this isn't about a strong ego at all. It's about a frail ego, trying to compensate, no matter the consequence.
I am a Buddhist. It’s about relinquishment of ego, frail, strong or otherwise.
Bertrand Russell said that the challenge for human beings is to deal with being both the most important thing in the universe while being the least significant at the same time.
I have thought that for some time....every time I see either of those two monsters on TV, I think with only these two, so much destruction. Then add a few others and we have a very small number of people causing problems the world over.
Yes, it is the malignant narcissists who create most of the havoc in the world. That so many people can't see what is so clear in the former guy, suggests that they are either also so troubled or have many, mostly men in their lives who are the same. Women, in particular will literally not allow themselves to see this disturbance in men, so as to protect their fragile egos. It is astounding how many of these guys bubble to the top.
I have noticed this and as a woman, I have heard many times about being careful around frail male egos. And I have heard many times strong women who have stood up being called a certain name.
Yep. The whole culture contrives to protect fragile male egos.
The most dangerous time in a woman's life is when she leaves a male partner. Women's lives absolutely depend upon appeasing narcissistic men. Ukraine, like a strong woman, stood up to Russia and is now paying the price. Godspeed.
Yes. So often these kinds of men are actually trying to compensate for fragile egos and we all pay a price for that. People who are narcissistically disturbed can't stand facing their own frailties and flaws. It is experienced as just too humiliating. We saw the evidence clearly with Putin, shirtless, astride a horse. If they weren't so dangerous I would just feel embarrassed for them as they display their sense of inadequacy so blatantly.
If Putin were declared a terrorist in spite of being a head of state, could he not be taken out like Osama bin Laden? It makes no sense that one man can be responsible for killing so many. Our laws make no sense in this matter. And evidently the UN's rules don't have an answer either -- he still has veto power. Can't they get around or change the rule if one member goes rogue?
Doubling down on a weak hand is the stupid solution common to looser, Eh!?
Yes, the good players usually don't fall for it.
Listened to Trump interview on Fox Noise linked by Heather. He is scared and soiling his panties! If this is his defense, which he can only make by taking the witness stand, that he had no 'intent' to commit a 'specific intent' crime related to Classified documents because he misunderstood the law (see quote below), he is cooked! First, what a wonderful sight it would be seeing him on the witness stand forced to answer questions under cross examination. (Think how poorly it turned out recently for Alex Jones, LMAO!) Second, we know DOJ has a list of people who told The Orange Clown there was a process to declassify and that he was violating the law by taking the documents and not returning them when asked. Perhaps the 'Litigation Dam' is breaking and he will be flooded with indictments? Heather wrote: "Trump said: 'I declassified the documents when they left the White House…. There doesn’t have to be a process as I understand it. You’re the president of the United States, you can declassify…even by thinking about it.'”
Trump, behind bars by Thanksgiving.
The NY lawsuit is civil and won't put anyone behind bars. But it has this great virtue: it can't be stopped by Dumpie's judges, since it's in state court. State judges won't be impressed by Dumpie's teams of bargain-basement lawyers or their slavish arguments.
Which brings up another point: When his lawyers in Florida refused to say in court that Dumpie had declassified documents, why was that? Because it's one thing to lie to the press, quite another to repeat that lie before a judge. His lawyers believe he's been lying to them.
I also believe the civil suit’s virtue is that it will cost him financially. Money is his god, so forcing him to pay and to limit his future financial options is a real slap to him, in my humble opinion.
In fact it looks as if the cost largely outweighs his means. This in itself would be an exposure of his lifelong fraud.
Don’t dismiss crowd funding. His acolytes will pay his fine as a Seig Heil demonstration of loyalty, and so they can get the little MAGA hat lapel pin and a certificate of appreciate signed with a facsimile of Der Donnie’s signiture
From the number of times DONATE appears on his communications, it would appear that he himself doesn't dismiss crowd funding. It may be slacking off; he's now wearing a Q badge and campaigning for QAnon. (Now that really is presidential!)
How beautiful would that be??????
trump’s defense says: “But that’s how real estate is done!” It reminded me of the “Boys will be boys” defense from the Access Hollywood video. And it will work with his supporters. His supporters like an organized-crime-flavor to their leader.
Something I read in a financial commentary about the "that's how real estate is done" mantra: pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
Seemed totally apropos
Yet they believe they'll get paid?
One of his new lawyers was paid up front.
Yes, $3 million. Didn't help Trump yesterday.
Seriously? He not only paid but did so up front? Dang. He really is soiling his pants!
Because they could be prosecuted for perjury.
Anyone with a scrap of common sense knows he has been lying about everything. The current lawyers aren’t willing to risk their licenses to further the lies.
And THIS invaded the White House. And the Capitol. The Lincoln Memorial. A step by step desecration of the noblest symbols of America's aims. Not the church - that was just a prop for the photographs, that and a Bible that wasn't his anyway.
Trump didn't do it without lots of help; lots of enablers. That's what's most sad
Yes, every time I saw him doing this, I wanted to vomit. And giving a medal to Rush. Tarnishes everything he touches and leaves it to fester.
Of course they know he's lying. They won't perjure themselves.
Any lawyer with an ounce of integrity drops a client who lies to them, for those very reasons.
Hard to drop him when he's paid $3M up front.
I think the NY civil suit is just the tip of the iceberg. The Big Turkey has openly committed multiple felonies, and I think Garland will make a point of getting him indicted for every one of them. A bit slowly, perhaps, but carefully and memorably. The Jan. 6th hearings have just been a pretty good warm-up act, kind of like the Monkees for Jimi Hendrix. I mean, Are You Experienced?
The best thing about the NY lawsuit is, if he loses, that will be the end of Trump Org. and therefore Trump. I don't think the lawyers representing him in the Mar-a-Lago classified papers case will be representing him in the NY state case. Hmm, maybe we should call it Deflategate? Also, Michael Cohen is claiming that he could be on the hook for 2-3 times the 250 million that is headlined.
Yesterday's headlines all felt wonderful but we are still in for a long legal slog. Also, I think he has ramped up the donation appeals and gotten the distraction mill revved up.
“Wheels of justice grind slow but grind fine”― Sun Tzu. Thanksgiving 2024 more realistic...but I like your thinking.
Thanksgiving! Thanksgiving indeed, if.... And no pardoning of the big orange turkey.
Gobble, gobble...
🤣
No pardon for *you*! (said in Seinfel S. N. voice.)
I picture Johnny Carson in his Freat Swamy outfit when I think of tfg declassifying docs by “thinking” of it. I wonder if he hurt himself - after all that brain work.
If he can’t “think” the docs unclassified all at once, it would indeed require brain work to “declassify” each one of hundreds. He was speaking to the most ignorant of his supporters when he claimed there was not a process for declassification.
Yup.
I will carry this image with me all day....bless you!
good image