The kind of people that answer poll questions are not representative of the overall electorate. Pollsters have to seriously manipulate the responses they get to try to mimic what the voting public as a whole will do. This requires turn out models which could be WILDLY wrong. Much more wrong than their so-called "margin of error" values t…
The kind of people that answer poll questions are not representative of the overall electorate. Pollsters have to seriously manipulate the responses they get to try to mimic what the voting public as a whole will do. This requires turn out models which could be WILDLY wrong. Much more wrong than their so-called "margin of error" values that they quote ... those margins assume their sampling is unbiased, but we know that's BS. There is no way they are sampling enough younger voters to measure the effect of Taylor Swift endorsement. They have been massively off in most elections in the last 2 years, because they do not know how to model the effects of the Dobbs decision and abortion ballot measures on turn out, and they don't know how to gauge relative enthusiasm, other than asking respondents whether they are likely yo vote ... which completely misses enthusiasm of the people who don't answer polls. I also suspect that there are a lot of people trolling the pollsters with answers they think pollsters want to hear. A great example last week if polling gone wrong was where a research firm targeted undocumented immigrants who were asked if they were registered to vote - many of them said yes because they thought the pollsters were going to try to get them to register if they said no!
Sorry but your comment here is WAY off the mark. "They (the polls) have been massively off in most elections the past two years"!!??? What biased talking head are you listening to? Despite many unpredictable trends indeed, the polls for the last TWO years have been amazingly accurate. Not perfect as you might wish but very very close to the final results (mostly showing and resulting in democratic wins in off year elections). This is why the polls showing Biden in very serious trouble were so critical. He was going to lose this election and bring down the Democratic party and possibly the country with it. You can thank your lucky stars that enough period realized that in time and convinced Joe to step aside. Otherwise instead of a toss up race in November (as the polls now show) we would be heading for a fascist dictatorship under Trump FOR CERTAIN. Sorry if this sounds argumentative but I find it amazing that people will make comments like yours without looking at the facts.
The kind of people that answer poll questions are not representative of the overall electorate. Pollsters have to seriously manipulate the responses they get to try to mimic what the voting public as a whole will do. This requires turn out models which could be WILDLY wrong. Much more wrong than their so-called "margin of error" values that they quote ... those margins assume their sampling is unbiased, but we know that's BS. There is no way they are sampling enough younger voters to measure the effect of Taylor Swift endorsement. They have been massively off in most elections in the last 2 years, because they do not know how to model the effects of the Dobbs decision and abortion ballot measures on turn out, and they don't know how to gauge relative enthusiasm, other than asking respondents whether they are likely yo vote ... which completely misses enthusiasm of the people who don't answer polls. I also suspect that there are a lot of people trolling the pollsters with answers they think pollsters want to hear. A great example last week if polling gone wrong was where a research firm targeted undocumented immigrants who were asked if they were registered to vote - many of them said yes because they thought the pollsters were going to try to get them to register if they said no!
Sorry but your comment here is WAY off the mark. "They (the polls) have been massively off in most elections the past two years"!!??? What biased talking head are you listening to? Despite many unpredictable trends indeed, the polls for the last TWO years have been amazingly accurate. Not perfect as you might wish but very very close to the final results (mostly showing and resulting in democratic wins in off year elections). This is why the polls showing Biden in very serious trouble were so critical. He was going to lose this election and bring down the Democratic party and possibly the country with it. You can thank your lucky stars that enough period realized that in time and convinced Joe to step aside. Otherwise instead of a toss up race in November (as the polls now show) we would be heading for a fascist dictatorship under Trump FOR CERTAIN. Sorry if this sounds argumentative but I find it amazing that people will make comments like yours without looking at the facts.