Not sure I find this credible. Silver - who is no longer 538 - doesn't use Polymarket as the source of his predictions, nor does he work for anyone else that I'm aware of. I do find the conclusions of his model disheartening, but do not think it's propaganda. He gives detailed explanations of his methodology. That doesn't mean he's infallible, but is another perspective with extensive experience. The problem, well documented in these comments, is the Electoral College, which skews heavily toward Republicans. Because of it, we run elections that ignore most of the country. Down ballot choices are in turn heavily driven by what happens at the top, plus extreme gerrymandering in the House. And the disturbing environment of gross dishonesty and threats of violence is atop this. A 38% probability of winning isn't zero (see Trump 2016), but the hill is steep. Stuart Stevens, who I think is clear-eyed about many things, for months was pushing the fantasy that Biden was going to win big. His heart is in the right place, but I put little faith in his predictions.
I put NO faith in Nate Sliver, PERIOD! He is a GQP leaning creep as far as i am concerned. That Electoral University, College or whatever people call it needed to be abolished decades ago. It's an ancient outdated system that no other nation in the world uses in their elections. And i agree totally with you about the facts you stated about all of the unfair items that are heavily skewed to benefit the GQP Domestic Terrorist party. The threats of violence and extreme dishonesty are beyond disgusting to me personally. I don't believe in polls from anyone because of the tiny percentage of the total voting population that polls are taken from. I did the math, and polls represent 0.08% of voters. That's way less than 1 percent. That Senator, ''Tommy Tuberville'' stupid idiot stated in an article on the Raw Story site that read, '' There is going to be hell to pay if we don't win the elections'' What kind of deluded, insane idiots are these mentally challenged bullies???? Do they think promoting violence and hate makes them look tough and invincible? It makes them look ignorant and cowardly in my opinion.
It appears that to some people this is what passes for strength. Not much we can do about that. I remember in 2016 thinking how shallow and stupid it was to say he'd be busy making America great again, but millions fell for it and still do.
You are so right. I am appalled and confused by these millions that have been conned into his completely false narrative and bogus propaganda. Almost all of my relatives outside of my immediate family believe what that corrupt criminal says and believe it's the gospel truth. Sad to say, we now do not have anything to do with each other because of Donald TUMP. We all used to be so close and got along great until he came down that escalator late in 2015. I have never ever despised anyone as much as i do him. He is no better than the notorious and evil Adolf Hitler. Hitler's rhetoric slogan was, '' Make Germany Great Again'' and now that slogan belongs to the evil and morbidly corrupt Orange Dictator except replace the ''Germany'' with America.
Gail Adams has the correct link to the article in the comment just below your comment. I am sorry about this, i am not familiar with posting correct links to the exact article. I have to admit, i am not good at doing that. The Raw Story site has a bad habit of taking down articles by the hour. Being on their site for an extended period causes my computer to lock down and freeze up. The ''Daily KOS'' site does that to my computer also. I suspect the torrent of useless ads they display causes that.
https://www.rawstory.com/nate-silver-is-paid-by-peter-thiel-never-trumper-scrambles-after-pro-trump-poll-predict/
Big thanks to you, Gail. I have NO experience with posting links whatsoever!
Not sure I find this credible. Silver - who is no longer 538 - doesn't use Polymarket as the source of his predictions, nor does he work for anyone else that I'm aware of. I do find the conclusions of his model disheartening, but do not think it's propaganda. He gives detailed explanations of his methodology. That doesn't mean he's infallible, but is another perspective with extensive experience. The problem, well documented in these comments, is the Electoral College, which skews heavily toward Republicans. Because of it, we run elections that ignore most of the country. Down ballot choices are in turn heavily driven by what happens at the top, plus extreme gerrymandering in the House. And the disturbing environment of gross dishonesty and threats of violence is atop this. A 38% probability of winning isn't zero (see Trump 2016), but the hill is steep. Stuart Stevens, who I think is clear-eyed about many things, for months was pushing the fantasy that Biden was going to win big. His heart is in the right place, but I put little faith in his predictions.
I put NO faith in Nate Sliver, PERIOD! He is a GQP leaning creep as far as i am concerned. That Electoral University, College or whatever people call it needed to be abolished decades ago. It's an ancient outdated system that no other nation in the world uses in their elections. And i agree totally with you about the facts you stated about all of the unfair items that are heavily skewed to benefit the GQP Domestic Terrorist party. The threats of violence and extreme dishonesty are beyond disgusting to me personally. I don't believe in polls from anyone because of the tiny percentage of the total voting population that polls are taken from. I did the math, and polls represent 0.08% of voters. That's way less than 1 percent. That Senator, ''Tommy Tuberville'' stupid idiot stated in an article on the Raw Story site that read, '' There is going to be hell to pay if we don't win the elections'' What kind of deluded, insane idiots are these mentally challenged bullies???? Do they think promoting violence and hate makes them look tough and invincible? It makes them look ignorant and cowardly in my opinion.
It appears that to some people this is what passes for strength. Not much we can do about that. I remember in 2016 thinking how shallow and stupid it was to say he'd be busy making America great again, but millions fell for it and still do.
You are so right. I am appalled and confused by these millions that have been conned into his completely false narrative and bogus propaganda. Almost all of my relatives outside of my immediate family believe what that corrupt criminal says and believe it's the gospel truth. Sad to say, we now do not have anything to do with each other because of Donald TUMP. We all used to be so close and got along great until he came down that escalator late in 2015. I have never ever despised anyone as much as i do him. He is no better than the notorious and evil Adolf Hitler. Hitler's rhetoric slogan was, '' Make Germany Great Again'' and now that slogan belongs to the evil and morbidly corrupt Orange Dictator except replace the ''Germany'' with America.
Gail Adams has the correct link to the article in the comment just below your comment. I am sorry about this, i am not familiar with posting correct links to the exact article. I have to admit, i am not good at doing that. The Raw Story site has a bad habit of taking down articles by the hour. Being on their site for an extended period causes my computer to lock down and freeze up. The ''Daily KOS'' site does that to my computer also. I suspect the torrent of useless ads they display causes that.
Ok, thanks, Patrick. I am usually fairly good with the computer, but i am really dumb when it comes to posting links.