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JDinTX's avatar

One of the things she mentioned, worries me. Colin Allred giving up his seat to oppose Ted Cruz. Texas has written the script for cheating and all types of voter suppression shenanigans, making it virtually impossible to unseat the cretins. I depleted my resources significantly supporting Beto. He would have won in the last two races, but for the sleight of hand and legal machinations of repubs in Texas. It will take a miracle, and my wand is worn. Hope there is one, but Texas and Florida took aim at fair elections and have stacked the deck.

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Mike S's avatar

Jeri,

I hear your angst and understand Texas situation having lived there until I was 32 and my sisters still do.

But, I want to offer some encouragement.

In probability mathematics there is something powerful that applies to, well, everything.

It is called "The Mean Value Theorem".

Simply put: In ALL systems, a distribution of (anything) tends to the mean, or the center of the distribution, and excursions from the mean drop off rapidly from the center.

Extremes exist, but, their probability and existence are progressively less likely the farther one moves from the mean. Practically speaking, everything obeys something called a "Normal Distribution".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

So it will be in Texas and it WAS in Texas when I was a youth and young adult.

The mean/center will prevail, it always does, although, extremes always exist (at progressively lower probability from the mean).

So, don't worry and don't give up.

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Maureen Osborne's avatar

Regression to the mean is one of the best explainers I learned in multivariate statistics And also one of the most exasperating, at times. But hot damn, Mike S., you’ve got a winner here.

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Mike S's avatar

Maureen. Have not heard hot damn is quite a while. Thanks for the smile.

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Bill Alstrom (MAtoMainetoMA)'s avatar

I like this Mike. Not only is it optimistic - it is logical. And sadly, the Texas GQP will be the cause of much more suffering and death by fall of 2024. The "mean" and cruel will help us swing back to a more normal mean.

And...I think that simply in terms of presentation, Allred is a far better candidate than Beto was (who I also sent money to).

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Sandra VO (Maryland)'s avatar

Me too, Beto would have been much better than Abbott! Which was I sent him $ even tho I live in MD.

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Mike S's avatar

Bill. Yes. Allred is better. Beto cannot win in TX, although if he did I think it would be a vast improvement. TX has been drinking the Ronald Reagan, let’s all vote ourselves poor, coolaid for 43 years.

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Sophia Demas's avatar

Thank you for your ray of hope....

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Virginia Witmer's avatar

And May the theorem hold in NC too. (I lived in TX when Ralph Yarborough was my senator and Henry B. Gonzales my rep.)

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Christy's avatar

Beto may have lost the battle due to GOP shenanigans but, his boots on the ground, grassroots work, helped to build resilience to the fascist propaganda. That’s a win!

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Sophia Demas's avatar

I was really enjoying my coffee out on my porch until I read this. Is it with blind hope that I wait for the likes of the two Justins to rise up in a state that's gone rogue where they're openly killing each other with assault rifles? How can someone so hideous as Ted Cruz be re-elected? I guess you just told us Jeri. I'm bummed....

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Mike S's avatar

Ted Cruz is indeed a puzzle.

Visually repulsive an intellectually challenged he has nothing to offer TX.

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Virginia Witmer's avatar

Where IS Beto? Out of funds? Exhausted? Life and family threatened beyond bearable? Important to know. It could be one more Republican horror to remind US of.

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