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Stuart Attewell (Paris, Fr)'s avatar

43 M represents about 13% of the population. Most models assume "herd immunity" will be achieved with between 60 and 80% of the population resistant to the virus. Some studies (reported on PBS, for instance) suggest that 41% of Republicans are refusing the Covid jab. That leaves only 5% of the population who are total refusniks and as such they would not be a threat to their neighbours...at least for this...and the bug would not be able to maintain itself.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-more-americans-get-vaccinated-41-of-republicans-still-refuse-covid-19-shots

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Ted's avatar

Need higher than 80% globally. As long as there is a reservoir, pandemic Continues. The rate of vax is also critically important.

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Stuart Attewell (Paris, Fr)'s avatar

The vaccines do slow it down considerably but they don't stop it as they only partially protect against infection and transmission. Their true gift is to drastically reduce the need for hospitalization and the death rate. I think though that we can "look forward" to a seasonal bout with the disease as it wafts its way round the world year after year. Vaccinations will probably become annual...just like the Flu in its current "mature" state.

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Reid (Seattle)'s avatar

And just like the flu, the risk is in the variants. We only need to get a flu jab each year because of the rotating cast of different subtypes. Interesting research is going on for both flu and Covid vaccines to see if perhaps a more long-lasting immunity can be induced, I assume by targeting some antigen or another that all variants have in common. Science may save us yet!

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Stuart Attewell (Paris, Fr)'s avatar

The rate of genetic transformation of the Covid virus is apparently sufficiently slow to permit vaccine development to keep up. What i've read is that "only" one micro changes happen every one or two transmissions!

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Barbara D. Reed's avatar

I just saw last night that only 2% of Japan is vaccinated and they are experiencing a big surge, to the point of hospitals being overwhelmed. At present, the Tokyo Olympics are still planned to be held. There is serious concerns about it being a superspreader so I TRULY hope the IOC cancels it.

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Ted's avatar

Not good fir Japan. Worse if it’s the new Indian and UK strains that are spreading. Seychelles had 62% vaxed and still had a crushing outbreak that overwhelmed their hospitals.

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JaneDough56's avatar

But as a quick aside, when you add the folks who cannot get the vaccine, 43 M “refusniks” can change the outcome.

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Ted's avatar

Yep.

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