As you know, I try to write this record of modern America from the perspective of what stories will matter in 150 years (about the span between the present and the Civil War).
I think Biden’s approval of the Willow Project is a calculated political move aimed at his reelection. Conservative independents who are not comfortable voting for the “environmental president” now have a way to vote for Biden. Criticism by environmentalists serve to reinforce this view.
Conoco Phillips is a long way away from actual production. A lot can happen in the meantime; a presidential election is one of those things. If Biden is re-elected, there could well be unforeseen problems developing with North Slope oil production that will take even more time to resolve. Hey! Who knew?
Joe Biden is the sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment. He does nothing without a calculated purpose.
Those progressives/environmentalists who would stay home on Election Day in a snit because of Biden’s approval of the Willow Project, should contemplate the damage to the environment if (shudder)TFG, or indeed any Republican, gets elected president.
Yup, Joe IS calculating for the future. Not just the Willow Project, but he has China a bit worried, too. President Xi sees the difference in NATO and the EU plus, more recently, the AUKUS pact that comes along with support from Japan, etc. and knows that has the fingerprints of Joe Biden all over the place. The influence of the US is growing in Africa, too. And what’s it all about?
Democracy vs Autocracy - pure and simple.
About the Willow Project: Soon, WE (including “progressives and environmentalists”) need to cool our engines (gas-driven, hybrid, and EV) and come to the REALISTIC UNDERSTANDING that we are in a Transition Phase in terms of energy production and use. This isn’t a “Today we are fossil; tomorrow we are renewable. Pull the breaker at midnight!” This is a decades long transition, and we need to simply WORK TOGETHER on that transition. BUT, the goal should not be to put ConocoPhillips or Shell or EXXON MOBIL out of business. We can “assist” the Fossils to transition themselves into Hybrids (at least) and, eventually even, into Renewables. Perhaps Conoco can be “helped” to also erect some solar panels and/or wind turbines at Willow. (Maybe the resulting electrical power can’t be transmitted to huge population centers, but maybe to villages close by, plus it can be used at the Willow site itself.)
Eventually, the Fossils won’t be driven out of business, but they can become true Energy Companies. When we pull into a Mobil station, we can get gasoline and/or electricity ALL PRODUCED by Mobil.
Yup, but decades from now….let’s cool our engines!
One thing that I always think has been missing in these discussions is that the technology at the heart of solar and wind renewables is not very old and not understood by many environmental interests. No I not talking about batteries. That technology is solid state power hardware. We all know about the transistor and computers but few understand that it was until 1990's that we had power solid-state in wide use. It allows us to convert DC to AC and back.
And we don’t have the infrastructure in place to deal with the power being generated by all these individual solar energy systems. Right now in our area the energy provider is limiting how much they can accept. My husband was a high voltage engineer for years. I don’t understand all the issues surrounding it and your average person putting up solar panels probably doesn’t understand it either.
And Mary Beth, most people considering solar panels probably have a lot of unease around the economics of switching. As I see it, that’s a real bottleneck.
Unfortunately the way we calculate the economics of switching is short-term and only includes a narrow measurement of costs/benefits. Long-term payout of direct and indirect benefits in both dollars and other intangible pluses is much greater but more difficult to measure concretely. Sometimes it takes faith. There was pushback on the tremendous investment in NASA. But consider the many economic benefits resulting from NASA’s research that are only apparent with hindsight. We are too short term and narrow in planning for the future. Our culture needs to shift to the long game. Not betting on our ability to do that.
As I read your comment it hit me: we are placing the responsibility for fixing the climate problem on individuals instead of the fossil fuel industry. They've known for decades that anthropomorphic climate change is real and will lead to calamitous outcomes. They deliberately traded away the globes future for the sake of a few bucks. It's the tobacco industry to the nth degree.
My brother-in-law had hot water from solar panels from the 1960’s. We can start “small” too and then enlarge rapidly. Good luck to US all. (I’ve had heat pumps in Chicago condo since the ‘90’s. Didn’t know what they were until we bought the condo in a refurbished section 8 building. Bit of luck, as they work well, winter and summer.)
Yup, I agree that the “transition phase” has been going on for too long. I’m a Tom Paxson “Whose Garden Was This” kinda folksinger. We FINALLY have some reliable renewable technologies, even though we also have some questionable battery/storage technology that we need to improve.
The problem is that we do not have the electrical infrastructure to support a rapid transition to pure electric vehicles nor do we have the infrastructure in place for battery storage to support a grid that is dominated by alternate energy sources that are not constant in output. It is going to take decades to build out the grid.
Paul, The fossil fuel industry transition phase is moving from fuel production to plastic production, resulting in even more emissions. This has been the plan for quite some time. See links below for their next great scam:
Excerpt:
“Reducing fuel consumption won't necessarily solve the plastic problem. Global plastic production is expected to double in the next 15 years even as demand for gasoline wanes. In 2017, 50% of all crude oil produced worldwide was refined into fuel for transport, most as gasoline. Electric vehicles and more efficient forms of public transport mean gasoline demand is falling. The oil and gas companies who own these refineries are instead gearing up to turn what is now excess fuel into plastics for packaging.”
The plastics problem has become infinitely worse. Even as we hear about the amount of trash in our oceans and plastic particles being found in the bodies of animals, it's become very, very difficult to avoid products packaged in plastic -- especially at the grocery store.
I don’t disagree at all, Angela, about your concerns about plastics. In my lifetime, we have transitioned TO plastics and now need to transition FROM plastics. The real question then is: How can We, the People get convinced that plastics (wanna add certain batteries?) are not good solutions? Of course the related problem is: What are some wonderful alternatives?
I have no ability to comprehend that anyone would be concerned for: “BUT, the goal should not be to put ConocoPhillips or Shell or EXXON MOBIL out of business.”
“ConocoPhillips said on Thursday profit more than doubled to $18.7 billion in 2022, the highest since the company spun off its refining business in 2012, as the oil producer benefited from stronger prices on tight supplies and robust demand.”
“The study, published Jan. 30 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, provides new evidence that global warming is on track to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial averages in the early 2030s, regardless of how much greenhouse gas emissions rise or fall in the coming decade.”
Ralph, I don’t disagree at all with your assessment of the political choices behind Biden’s approval of the Willow project. As completely pissed off as I am about it, your assessment was also mine. Yet.
Gen Z voters are the future. The progressive/environmental voters I’ve worked with my entire life know that tfg or any Republican would not prioritize climate protections. We’ve made those tight uncomfortable political choices throughout. And the second we had a trifecta D national government, introduced the Build Back Better legislation. We know how this works. We accepted the losses and got the Inflation Reduction Act. Its working.
What will young voters decide? Because that’s one of the major groups that got us to where we are by showing up in 2022.
Gen Z is hyper aware of what they face in the climate crisis. Will they parse out Biden’s decision as we have? Will they set aside their rage and cynicism at this kind of politically sharp decision-making? While I desperately hope so, I worry.
Climate scientists just issued what they called their final warning on climate - we have roughly a decade to rapidly reduce carbon emissions in order to prevent the worst possible scenarios.
But what about those who have already lost everything? The Native communities in Alaska whose entire villages are disappearing because of rising oceans? Or the Island nations who are desperate to find ways to desalinate water for drinking water and growing food? There are millions of other stories out there including the fact the the Syrian civil war began over water rights arguments because of the epic 500 year drought they continue to experience.
When or how do we find the political will to prioritize the climate? Rhetorical question. But a pretty damned important one. (If anyone has answers, I’m all ears)
Entire villages in Alaska were changing their locations decades ago if not centuries.....for economic reasons. Will rising oceans impact Florida? The jobs in Alaska due to this Willow Project will only be temporary for the most part and then only 300 permanent jobs. Is that worth it? In any case, look at those who support this project. Alaskan villagers are being used, again, by big oil. I do support what Biden is doing because it will take forever for oil to start flowing and that is a very remote area used by big game hunters who are not after meat but trophies. Money that trickles out of that project into Native hands changes subsistence ways and culture. Money that flows out of that project into the state treasury is sorely needed at this time due to the previous boom and bust. I dont buy many of the arguments for opening this area to oil production but I trust Biden.
Gen Z is important. I think they will show up because they know that the former president or other Republicans are the worse choice. Biden's protection of the Pacific Ocean area and the designation of the national monuments are thought to be in exchange for the opening of ANWR but I think they could be looked at as in addition to.
Mary Peltola, Alaska's Democrat Rep in the US House, and a native American, says that the money is needed by Native Americans to build schools, and the like. You can listen to HCR's take here
Well said Sheila and spot on. Environmental issues are those the world’s populace should be allowed a vote; so many millions affected by decisions of the few!
Sheila B, We vote Democratic, no matter what. And we vote en masse. That’s what we do. The Republicans “do not believe in climate change.” When we have a Democratic president and Congress, we can work faster on all climate, planet-saving legislation!
Ralph, I'd like to contribute to a fund to purchase the world's largest megaphone for you. With every right-wing bigmouth cheering, and many on the left weeping about Biden's diminished mental capacity, it's wonderful to hear someone with good sense reminding us of Biden's true mental capacity. Thank you!
Such an excellent point. And yes: just like the Bernie supporters who stayed home in a snit and prevented Hillary from winning in 2016, if the progressives/environmentalists choose to stay home in a snit over the Willow Project, the consequences may be dire enough to bring down what's left of our democracy.
Bernie voters didn’t stay home in large numbers. Bernie campaigned harder than Hillary in the last weeks before election even though Hilary made zero outreach to those voters unlike Biden (it’s the leaders job to negotiate for those votes not assume she is owed them out of loyalty) . Who stayed home were the Black voters in Milwaukee she didn’t bother to visit.
You're correct. Thank you. I guess because I personally knew of/knew a very large number of college students in my town who chose not to vote b/o Bernie losing the primary, I am prejudiced in the way I've viewed the situation.
Here’s some additional information about what ConocoPhillips can and can’t do. There is a reason that oil companies didn’t grab leases from ANWR when tffg opened it up in 2017. The tundra is fragile. The Arctic is warming very fast making the tundra increasingly vulnerable. There are laws that protect the fauna and flora. My husband worked for years as a subsistence representative and a marine mammal observer. Oil companies are required to have them on board. They are guardians of the environment. There was a very short window of time that the tundra is frozen that they could do seismic testing because of the harm to the tundra and animals when it wasn’t frozen. There is much that can be done to protect the earth by focusing on such existing regulations.
Also I heard a POV today that made an argument that the public will get a much better education with ConocoPhillips being on the defense in the lawsuits, rather than vice versa. Words matter. We can educate and bring along folks as we focus on the progress and small wins.
There is a real risk of losing all the progress we’ve made and much more, if we get another 4 year MAGA administration. Thanks to the constant negative narrative because of not getting the whole enchilada from the far left and the lies from the current GOP we don’t have a lot of wiggle room. We’re doing a lot of winning. Let’s talk about the winning. I’d much rather be on a team of winners than moaners and groaners.
Thank you for your great comment Ralph. The process for the Willow Project approval was a day and night difference in how such things were previously done. As people everywhere remind us, perfect is the enemy of progress.
Alaskans, and in particularly indigenous Alaskans living in one of the harshest environments in our world, stand to get $$ for education and healthcare from development. Recent reductions in oil $ after decades of being a subsistence economy that suddenly got flooded with oodles of 💰 leaves culture shock after culture shock.
I would much prefer no drilling but this is an extremely complex issue that impacts local lives directly. It’s so demoralizing to see millions of people who have done next to nothing to take care of Mother Earth for decades, suddenly care so much, that they threaten to hand over the greatest democracy that the world has ever known to the worst lying and thieving tyrants. How arrogant of them to paternalistically think they know what’s best for people that are directly impacted by the Willow Project. We must take better care of Mother Earth but we should not expect to push that burden solely onto the Indigenous peoples who were forced into a cash economy by the never ending Westernized greed to accumulate money and materials. It’s so effing complicated and I am sick of people (not you Ralph!! ❤️) spouting uninformed judgements.
We tried to tell people this in 2016 particularly related to Supreme Court. And now we see what happens when people do not understand pragmatic politics.
I hope I live to see the day that we can have a POTUS that could match her wisdom, knowledge and experience. 7B+ human souls on a shrinking earth is going to require more of all of us.
I would love to see some of what progressives want asap. But it doesn't happen that way. What bothered me about 2016 that because of purity, we actually took many steps back. I confess to having many so called progressives on my blocked list including one that I voted for in the primary against Schroeder. But then when HRC was the nominee and I was arguing for voting for her, he got on my page with a lot of dreck.
Oh yes Ralph - anyone and everyone who recognizes the climatic perils that are rearing their ugly heads today needs to vote in 2024, against any Republican candidate be it Trump or someone else. It would be insane to stay home. Romney is the only Republican I know of who is sounding the climate change alarm. All others are just suicidally hell bound to go in the opposite direction (it's "woke" after all). But he has not abandoned the party, which in my mind tells it all (he would flip flop on that issue at a moments notice). Besides, he hasn't thrown his hat into the ring.
I also read somewhere that there was another part of the Willow deal the protected other parts of Alaska. No one is talking about that very loudly. Also, I think now is the time to make this deal with enough gap before 2024. For better or worse, Americans in general have short memories and this will probably not make the top five issues by then.
I agree that there are many hurdles to jump before one ounce comes out of the ground, if that.
"I also read somewhere that there was another part of the Willow deal the protected other parts of Alaska."
Not true. Biden scotched 2 drilling sites proposed by Conoco. I'll eat dog food the day any oil company "protects" anything other than their own interests.
Marycat2021 - President Biden also obtained other concessions in return for the permit going forward. From Earthjustice: "As part of the decision to approve Willow, the Biden administration also finished the job of protecting federal Arctic waters from new oil and gas leasing and announced a process to increase protections of important biological areas in the Western Arctic."
“Conoco Phillips is a long way away from actual production. A lot can happen in the meantime….”
Exactly what I was thinking after Biden approved it. In fact I thought he approved it knowing fully well that any production might well not take place.
Or be so delayed that things (increased demand for electric vehicles?) could dramatically change by the time production would start.
You really think an oil company would ever simply cancel oil production because alternatives are becoming more available? Do you have any idea how illogical that is?
We knew back in the 1960's that cigarettes kill people, but did that stop the tobacco companies from manufacturing and selling cigarettes in any country on earth? And doing so unethically?
This is the kind of a comment used by bullies who have no interest in sharing ideas and points of views.
Some experts think quite differently
“Republican presidents and congressional leaders repeatedly attempted to open the refuge to drilling but were consistently stifled – until 2017. That year, the Trump administration opened it to leasing. Ironically, no companies were interested. Oil prices had fallen, risk was high and the reputational cost was large.”
“Bully”- a person who habitually seeks to harm or intimidate those whom they perceive as vulnerable.
I made a comment on my opinion of your choice of words. No where did I call you anything. As you see from the definition, it contains the word habitually. I have no clue if you use such words habitually or not. Can you agree that saying to another that their thinking is “illogical” is an attempt to silence their POV?
Not. Exactly the opposite. If I simply wanted to shut you down, I would have said your opinion is bullshit. But I didn't. I merely meant that basing environmental policy on pure conjecture would be illogical, much like saying that Trump isn't going to be president in 2024 because he could be in prison by then. :)
It’s called capitalism. If it doesn’t benefit their bottom line they would cancel production. Whatever the reason making it not profitable to proceed, be that alternatives becoming more available, the price of oil dropping to the point that pursuing production isn’t worth doing, whatever the reason, if it’s not profitable enough then yes they would cancel production.
A lot can happen between now and when they get their infrastructure in place and ready to begin extraction. Fwiw getting their infrastructure in place will take years not months.
A lot can happen, such as a Republican president is in the WH and they think drilling all over previously protected federal land is a great idea. The energy sector will not change, it owns oil fields all over the world and will not shut them down in our lifetimes, especially when roughly one-third of the world does not have the money to launch alternative energy programs.
You think kicking the can down the road is OK? Really?
I have no doubt there’s more to the decision, more information behind making it than to simplify and summarize it as kicking the can down the road. Am I concerned about it? Yes! Am I pleased about it? No. But I also trust our current President’s decision making and the process he takes in making those decisions.
One very real issue is the condition of the oil pipeline. Drilling is meaningless if there's no way to transport the oil to refineries in the lower 48. Alyeska claims the pipeline "continues to operate normally" but it was designed to work at much higher flow than it has had in the last few years and that allows the oil to flow more slowly and cool providing more opportunities for rust. Ironically warming permafrost has also caused problems for the pipeline.
We cannot afford to lose the new congressional representative of Alaska, Democrat Mary Pertola. Maybe the Willow project approval will help keep her there.
You seriously think the potential for environmental catastrophe is nothing compared to keeping a Democrat from Alaska in office?
Google:
"The Willow project will add 239 million metric tons of carbon emissions to the atmosphere over the next 30 years – equivalent to the annual emissions of 64 coal-fired power plants. Environmental organisations have called it a “carbon bomb”.Mar 15, 2023"
SAH Vashon makes an excellent point. The oil is still in the ground. If green energy gets increasingly easy to consume, the cost of extracting oil from the earth becomes less and less lucrative. One more Democrat is one less fascist.
Thanks for supporting my statement! Alaska is its own country. (I was a resident for 9 years). Remember they thought they should dam the Suisitna? Some truly awful things, thankfully, never get funded🤔!
So you're saying we shouldn't worry about it? Seriously, yours and Vashon's reasoning is faulty in light of the facts.
"Solving the climate crisis cannot be accomplished with clean-energy technology alone; keeping oil and gas reserves in the ground must be a part of the solution too. When it comes to fossil fuel extraction on public lands, the U.S. remains pointed in the wrong direction.
The U.S. ranks as the second-largest emitter of climate pollution on the planet. Yet the government’s Willow decision is a worrisome harbinger of what could be to come, as new fossil-fuel projects are on track to win approval just as they always have — even from agencies operating under a president who has repeatedly promised bold climate action and a transition to clean energy. Clearly, this is a broken system in need of repair." - Earthjustice
"The way things work now, agency decisions green-lighting drilling projects on public lands essentially occur in a vacuum, divorced from U.S. commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. An improved system would bake these federal climate commitments into the decision-making process. In practice, this could mean that no new lease sales could happen or oil-and-gas permits could be issued unless the proposals squared with U.S. climate goals. Tying fossil-fuel decisions to such a “climate screen” would help avoid development of carbon bombs." Doesn't this make more sense than just leaving it up to the industry to police itself, which is what you're proposing?
And I'm sorry, but one senator's job is not so important that we hand over the future of millions of acres of pristine ecosystem, and the fate of our planet, in exchange for preserving a political advantage. Really, that idea is just appalling.
Marycat, I really don’t have time for folks that go around claiming that anyone that disagrees with them is guilty of “faulty thinking”. Can’t imagine that you would be bothered to read anything contrary to your chosen beliefs, but here’s some water in case you want a drink:
So better to hand Congress and maybe the White House as well over to the Republicans? That is the very real risk. See what that does to carbon statistics.
She's a Representative, not a Senator. And she's replaced Don Young who was everything we don't need in the House.
The Willow lease was sold in 1999. The laws under which drilling and mining leases on public lands are sold date back to the 1800s. There's a long history of terrible damage to the land in the name of profit. There's also a long history of pecking away at those laws that allowed that damage. Willow is part of that process; now that it is approved groups like earthjustice can file suit to stop actual drilling from happening.
Yes, it would be lovely if we could get all those laws repealed and all drilling and mining in the US could be stopped. Even better if we could get some real cleanup of all the sites done. We can dream. But we can also keep pecking away.
Meanwhile where are all those minerals, metals, and yes, oil going to come from.
I think that's wrong. I read elsewhere that it would release emissions equivalent to 2 million cars over its lifetime. 2 million cars running for 30 years is the same as 60 million cars running for a year. 60 million cars is slightly less than one fifth of the US fleet. Cars cause 16% of US annual GH emissions. 60 million cars cause 3.3 percent of a year's emissions. That's not much.
Yes, if the Willow project is actually successful. If it is ever drilled and if it is actually put into production.
There's a whole bunch of ifs and about 20 years between now and Willow producing all those emissions.
The Willow lease was originally sold in 1999. The legal steps to actual equipment on the ground were started in 2018. There have been many other leases sold and even some that oil companies have spent additional millions doing exploratory drilling on. But that doesn't mean that oil is flowing into Valdez.
As Christy and SAH Vashon have pointed out; Biden's approval, with conditions, is an opportunity for legal maneuvering against the oil companies.
Environmental activists do not "stay home in a snit" on election day. We know that the government holds all the power to further the cause of saving the planet, we don't give up and stay home. We keep on, and that includes voting.
I am sorry, but some who spout their concern about the environment and other societal issues have stayed home previously. I have long argued with some of the progressives here in Salem that Biden is doing a pretty good job and that they ought to tout his successes instead of dissing him and others Ds doing their best all the time. Also anyone who hangs the word socialist on themselves can kiss being elected goodbye.
I’m at a loss for words…you’re 100% joking…you’re using sarcasm in its finest form — right?
“Joe Biden is the sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment”
Scariest part of all, your comment was “liked” by well over 300 readers! OMG…what?!! You realize the WHOLE entire WORLD is flipping LAUGHING at your “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” correct?
Russia and China’s stronger alliance and the ultimate end of the “Petro-Dollar” is Biden’s doing — 100% caused by the current administration. Biden’s special ops folks blew up the Nord-Stream pipeline — unless you’ve been living in a cave, you’d absolutely know this to be true.
There are literally DOZENS and DOZENS of video clips of the “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” showing your guy actually competing with Kamala Harris for the least intelligent public official in the history of the United States of America.
I can’t see in any public appearance where Joe Biden showed himself to be the “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” — “does nothing without calculated purpose”
Both sides of the political aisle are hypnotized by “their” officials and will say or do ANYTHING to defend their ideologies. I feel sorry for folks like you who’ve gulped-down GALLONS of the “Blue or Red” Kool-Aide and believe EVERYTHING their side says or does. What makes you and yours-truly so different is my equal-opportunity disdain for the zealots on both sides (Donkeys and Elephants). When you say things like “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” and defend them (quote: “I’m dead serious and stand by every word”) you lose all credibility — and any non-biased observer would question your intelligence/motives. No, I’m not calling you stupid, I’m merely pointing out the fact that you’re “partisan-to-the-core” and cannot mentally/physically conceptualize the fact that your Donkey’s do bad/illegal crap just like the Elephants on the other side.
I have no idea what the weather is like in Moscow, but I can tell you —— your “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” —— (a flipping moron) is pulling the levers of WW-III and you’re absolutely oblivious to that fact.
So glad you shifted from the constant chatter of if and when Fake 45 will face the music to what Biden did today. He is slowly but surely handing back lands to the tribal nations, the rightful owners. It is important that he gives the proverbial finger to the fossil fuel industry which seeks to destroy and poison us all. Unfortunately, Joe is willing to sign onto the Willow project, however. I guess he is trying to even things out with jobs and future employment for Alaskans. I seriously don’t know if we will ever see gas as ancient history, but I sure wouldn’t mind it if it was.
A commenter on NPR the other day mentioned that Biden's other option (to cancel the Willow project) would have resulted in lawsuits that would be difficult for the government to defend. And that, because of demand for fossil fuels, by the time the project does get going, the likelihood of it still being financially feasible is at risk. There's a possibility we'll never see any of that oil reserve - it just won't be worth it. I worry more about the risk to the world's food supply - the war in Ukraine will continue to wreak havoc and the effect on world stability is much more disturbing. What China does or does not do in support of that war is of greater consequence.
Thank you for this post James citing the probable outcomes of the President's actions. I'm proud of what the President is achieving for us and for future generations.
The world's food supply may well be an escalating issue for multiple reasons. The scariest is wrapped up in climate. How much Willow will or won't contribute the problem may well be peripheral to the overall shift in orientation and priorities that might spare us the worst blows a disrupted climate appears to be capable of delivering.
Willow will be making a very small contribution. I read elsewhere that it would release emissions equivalent to 2 million cars over its lifetime of 30 years. 2 million cars running for 30 years is the same as 60 million cars running for a year. 60 million cars is slightly less than one fifth of the US fleet. Cars cause 16% of US annual GH emissions. 60 million cars cause 3.3 percent of a year's emissions. That's not much.
David, thank you for this link to HCR's Politics Chat. The whole 1+ hour was really informative (no surprise). I will return to it to listen again to the explanation of DeSantis / the Radical Right / liberal totalitarianism. Jane
The world food supply is indeed in crisis as David Beasely stated (again) this time on PBS News Hour last night. Will the wealthy of this earth hear his call for aide?
No, they won't because they think their money will save them and they can never have enough. I am going to recommend on the basis of a review, America, by Poverty by Matthew Desmond which calls attention to how the rest of us, including liberals and progressives, contribute to the problem of poverty and the problems that creates.
Did a pause on this one, Michele. Very powerful analysis by Desmond. Thank you for sharing. My husband made a comment during the Pandemic that the Government could afford to give $1 million to every citizen. With a population of 330 million people, it would hardly make a dent in the nation's coffers if you think about it.
Here's an NPR report on and an abridged interview of Desmond. Very interesting. The picture at the top shows an "unhoused individual"; I think that means "homeless".
Thank you... I listened to that interview yesterday; very powerful ideas about the income inequality we suffer from and how easy it would be to solve the problems of homelessness and food insecurity. Our whole capitalistic system needs a rethink.
Yes, I haven't read it yet, but I was impressed by the review. I will be buying it next book order...which will be soon. Right now I am reading an interesting novel called the Seed Saver which is told from the point of view of some Native American women, I think in Minnesota.
Along the same lines, take a look at Braiding Sweetgrass: Indigenous Wisdom, Scientific Knowledge and the Teachings of Plants by Robin Wall Kimmerer. She's a member of the Citizen Potowami Nation and a botany professor at SUNY-College of Environmental Science and Forestry. She writes with grace, elegance, and wisdom. I've bought several copies to give to family and friends.
Many of the wealthiest, ie the fascist GOP, are eager to bring starvation to the masses. Their solution for leaving what’s left of our precious Earth for themselves. Why so many good people can’t see the evil hitting them in the face is because it’s hard to admit what any one of us are likely capable of under the right circumstances
Keep reminding everyone that food inflation is with us. That your backyard garden is your best food supply. Look up “victory gardens” from WWII. We can learn from there. Rationing and price controls of food should come soon.
I am old enough to sorta remember victory gardens. After that, we didn't have a garden. I learned gardening here in Oregon from various people and trial and error. It is nice enough today for me to be outside, but I can't plant radishes, spinach, potatoes, etc. as the cold returns tomorrow. We also try to support local famers and I seldom buy produce that has traveled a long ways. The Willamette Valley has been named one of the best places in the US to visit. Lots of wineries, good food, breweries, ciders, spirits, etc.
One of the first places I visited, back in the mid-'50s. We lived in Seattle, my parents had friends in the Willamette Valley, and I have nice, though faint memories of it.
The lease for the Willow site has been held by ConocoPhillips since 1999.
The Willow site is not in ANWR.
While allowing the Willow project to be built, Biden also closed off the coastal areas from drilling.
It's amazing how much information is available and how little information people use to make judgments. Nothing is as simple as politicians and pundits make it seem. That is why I value Heather Cox Richardson's writings so highly; she tries to put the news cycle in context.
It is likely that projects like Willow cannot be built because roads and pipelines will not be able to be built on warming and heaving former permafrost. Same issue in Siberia.
While all the ramifications of climate change are sneaking up on us, the issue may have a challenge as top dog in a few years.
What we now need to keep an eye on is the sudden, explosive growth of artificial intelligence. An example of this Chat-GPT. Version 3.5 was released approximately two months ago. Over 100 000 000 people have used it. Now Version 4 is out and it blows 3.5 out of the water. An example: Version 4 scores 90% on the bar exam. 3.5 scored in the 10th percentile. Similar tests have been done comparing the two models with the same sort of result, but the point is this. AI is developing at a speed so exponential that scientists can scarcely comprehend its potential and are reducing expected growth timetables by years. It is considered by many scientists to be the most transformative invention in the history of humankind.
A Silicon Valley journalist for a dozen years noted in an interview with Ezra Klein that Chat 3.5, when tasked with producing an article in her style, wrote about as well as she did in Grade 6. Version 4 writes as well, in her style, as she did in university
The consequences are beyond frightening - nudging towards numbing. Within a few years AI “agents” will be able to do any work that can be presently done by a human. By “few years”, I am talking anywhere from 5 to 15. For many of us that may not be important. But think of the effect on our children and grandchildren when you hear or read of AI’s accomplishments. If AI can perform all the tasks that can be done at home by humans, how many humans are going to find themselves employed?
Within 20 years AI will be able to scientific research in minutes that mankind could only accomplish in a century. My son is into highly advanced research in Math/Computer Science. He’s in his early forties. Will he be obsolete in terms of the work he does before his career ends?
The ultimate challenge for AI technology is to be able to produce other AI technology. If that happens, human beings would then basically become an adjunct to Earth.
Of course there are still massive problems to work out. AI boys still have a frequent tendency to “hallucinate”, that is to produce output in response to a request that is complete gibberish. And at some point it’s progress May level off or even end for some reason that its creators cannot foresee.
All of this is happening *with no talk yet of regulation*. Once again, science is doing what science does - charging ahead at full throttle. But within that community many voices are calling out for regulation.
Donald Trump’s peregrinations mean very little in this context. Professor Richardson’s focus on the bigger story of XI-Putin may, in some medium term sense also be unimportant.
If interested, read Thomas Friedman’s “Our New Promethean Moment” in today’s NYT.
All of technology, even a digging stick or a the force a rock to crack shellfish or human heads, expends our power to do. The problem is that we can do all manner of things that cannot be undone, so we need to proceed with care. With great power comes great responsibility; it always has. As a kid in elementary school I saw the movie "Forbidden Planet" and revisited it as an adult. In retrospect the score was innovatively creepy, the dialog comic-book-ishly shallow, but the "be careful what you wish for" point it encompassed has haunted me throughout my life. Science just tells us how the Universe is put together, but application of that knowledge, especially in the form of technology, has dramatically changed the way we live. We seem like 6-year-olds at the controls of a nuclear reactor. We are excited by all the sirens and blinking light but we don't know (or don't sufficiently care) what the hell we are doing.
Many actual scientists, who are professionally concerned with recording reality, are far more alarmed by some of the use-of-technology social trends than the general public or their political leadership; as we witness in warnings of climate change, or antibiotic resistance, for example. IIRC Stephen Hawking was alarmed by the prospects of abusive or irresponsible uses of AI; and yet we mostly drift along with the current of plutocracy.
We certainly run the risk of of a police state beyond anything Orwell could have imagined, and a lot of stuff is Orwellian these days. We can also use technological power to serve human liberation, even environmental protection, but just hoping it turns out that way seems unlikely to make it so.
Although he came from humble beginnings, it was clear Philo T. Farnsworth was a man ahead of his time when he theorized the basic principles of electronic television at age 14. Farnsworth had an idealized vision of what the television would do. It would allow people to learn about each other and would settle world problems. He thought people could be educated from television as well as entertained through sports and cultural programs.
Farnsworth lived until 1971, and he saw television take a turn he hadn’t expected. People were not being educated through his invention nor had the world's problems been settled because of it. Today, many people watch television for dozens of hours each week. Farnsworth’s son said his father felt people wasted their lives by watching television, telling him, “There’s nothing worthwhile on it, and we’re not going to watch it in this household, and I don’t want it in your intellectual diet.” -
The word in Alaska 20+ years ago was that any drilling project takes 20 years to get oil in a can or gas in an American tank (2023+20). Detroit, Tokyo, Korea, Wolfsburg, and Turin are all committed to be nearly completely eV or HV by 2027/.8.
What is Conoco Phillips planning to do with Willow Oil (if they even find a good pool?) in 2043??
How many of our gassers will still be on the road?
It’s going to take a very long time before every gas powered car is no longer on the road and as their number diminishes, their environmental impact will diminish as well, eventually becoming meaningless. We are going to need oil wells probably well into the next century for industry as well as transportation, the trick will be to make their use environmentally friendly and they are working on that today.
I plan on driving our 2007 non hybrid Toyota a maximum of 2500 miles a year until either it dies or I do, but I expect the new Alaskan oil source will never put a drop in my tank.
Paraphrasing : "Plastics. The answer is plastics." Echoes of "The Graduate" (1967). See Angela Benson's comment earlier in comments here, search on 'plastic'.
Westtreker, here’s a good piece from AlaskaBeacon that is relevant to your question:
“Energy transitions depend on changes in demand, not just supply. As an energy scholar, I believe advancing the affordability of electric vehicles and the infrastructure they need would do much more for reducing oil use than drilling bans. Though it may seem counterintuitive, by aiding European economic stability, U.S. exports of fossil fuels may also help the EU plan to accelerate noncarbon energy use in the years ahead”
Yes, Marlene! So tired of hearing (it seems like) nothing but tRump, tRump, tRump!! Yes, HCR, he bears keeping an eye on, but jimminy christmas, falling all ourselves about what MIGHT happen should not rule out keeping focused on what IS happening, and most importantly, what we can do about what is happening. In WI, Democrats are laser focused on the election of Judge Janet on April 4.
Thank you, Dr. Richardson for drawing attention to international affairs of great interest to all the world including us. Also thank you for telling us about the National Monuments President Biden has added and reclaimed. I realize that ranchers in Nevada and Utah believe that public lands should be theirs to use and exploit as they see fit. Thank you President Biden for seeing they are preserved for future generations.
IMHO, it's not just ranchers in Nevada that want those public lands. The federal government owns a lot of property in Nevada, and some political leaders believe that it stymies economic growth. Look at the sprawl that already exists around places like Reno. They're running out of developable land (not my opinion, but theirs).
Thinking of sprawl, is water an issue? I understand Los Angeles was built where the local water resources would support 200,000 people, not today’s almost 12.5 million.
With global heating should we be occupying more hot, dry real estate? I have read a suggestion that we need to build future cities closer to the poles to relocate climate refugees from coastal cities and other uninhabitable land.
I've never understood how all these southwestern cities are able to grow like crazy, given limited supplies of water. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the future.
The stark contrast between the professionalism of Biden's national security staff and the keystone cops that were in place under the last administration is remarkable. Thank you for the "long view", Dr. Richardson.
If you look at Putin's strategic options pre-2014 and considering that the Russian economy is smaller than Italy's, he had 3 basic choices:
1 Stand alone in the world as a nuclear armed but but second-level, independent nation supplying raw materials and energy to the world but without any real say in the workings of the world
2 Cozying up to Europe with the intention of becoming a significant member of the "peaceful" European community of Nations and help drive it to become the 3rd Block on the world stage, or
3 Imposing soviet nostalgia and trying aggressively to recreate the power that they feel they lost in 1990 and fing again their place in the world facing the US in a bi-lateral system as before.
As we know he chose the latter option but without significant preparation of the military, sufficient economic ressources to support a long offensive, real intelligence about Ukraine and with unrealistic political and military objectives.
Putin was facing 3 potential downsides should all not go well:
1 Losing the war and dwindling in importance in full view of the world,
2 Accepting American world-dominance and "converting" to liberalism, globalisation etc
3 Being forced to beg for help from China and thus becoming China's "sidekick" in Western Eurasia.
Well it is clear he chose strategy 3, things went badly and he ended up with downsides 1 & 3 without the possible benefits to the Russian people of the "downside" 2; the worst possible result and personal position for Putin. He is now the dependant offspring of the Chinese and he, personally is not actually necessary to the desired power surge of the Chinese. The Chinese will work with their favourite Russian Oligarch/politicians now to ensure a "clean", but sinophile succession. Putin will be "Gone, Baby, Gone"; with or without life and ill-gotten gains.
Thank you. I would only offer that Putin DID try to do your number 3 (recreate the power of the Soviet era). However, his military was so rife with corruption that his effort failed, possibly without him realizing it.
Mike, the outcome for the USA is not necessarily brillant as you have now to deal with a rising power in China. The chinese will now concentrate on treating Siberia as their own private cookie jar with investment and exclusive access to whatever is there. It is in the Chinese's interests to at least limit the damage to their interests caused by the Europeans' new-found solidarity; they prefer picking off their economic chickens individually. Hence you can expect lots of nice words allround as bit-by bit the chinese draw the the Russians back to the point where feathers start unruffling.
What can be done:
1 Arm Ukraine with more than enough ressources to enable them to push Russia out before China gains from any "peace" move and thus maintain European solidarity
2 Start talking to Europhile interests and powers within the Kremlin who won't be happy at the idea of taking their summer holidays in Beijing or with transfering their wealth from £ and $ to largely inconvertable Yuan
3 Start planning for the future with Europe to answer the question "What would Europe look like with an OPTION 2 Russia inside and what would be this new blocks outlook and role
4 Start talking to the Chinese to both improve relations and start talking of their basic interests with a view to rendering Chinese influence in the world more peacefull and less aggressive and egotistical......and that goes for American influence too.
Something has to be done to allow the world to spend a little less on armaments and a little more on people. Competing dogmas go far beyond the bounds of debate and drive the current vicious spiral serving only the emergence of opposing autocratic regimes that benefit from the threat of a fantasy foreign enemy to the detriment of the people who they are supposed to serve.
The military industrial complex will surely push back, and power-grabbers, both democratic and autocratic, always need an enemy to demonstrate their value to the people. (Look at the sad state of the republican party, having to pick "woke" and "trans" for enemies).
Amen to your take on the Republican choice of who and what to fear and despise. I read that one of the No Trans in Sports lawsuits was brought because of one twelve-year-old athlete. Scary kid, I guess, to inspire a lawsuit over fairness in middle school sports.
US & Europe tried to make a prosperous Western Democracy from the Best Coast (US West Coast) all the way to that sea from the edge of which one can see Sarah's front porch. Things seemed to be developing well. I almost took an Alaska Air flight to Siberia just 'because'.
But, Vladimir and his Thugocracy friends did not understand Econ 101.
Tragic Waste of a mostly Educated Chess-knowledgeable population...
Nice analysis, Stuart. Putin has made his bed and will have to lie in it. But what are we going to do? Can you lay it out in a neat 1, 2, 3 format? The variables are many, with or without Putin.
Good perspective…I wish all of our representatives and their leaders could forget the petty crap and focus the extinction-level problems facing us righ now, Like nuclear ww 3, the next pandemic, and near certain climate apocalypse. Then we might see humans alive in 150 years to read and marvel at Heather Cox Richardson’s depth and wisdom.
Oh, but transgendered people in high school sports and Hunter Biden and Hillary's emails <eye roll>. Seriously, it's all a distraction from the really important issues, like climate change, that Republicans refuse to address (let alone acknowledge).
Ellen, I agree with your statement totally, but may I offer one correction. Please use "transgender" as an adjective...as in transgender men, transgender women, trangender athletes or transgender people. It's the respectful way to refer to this oppressed community of people. Please don't be offended but I was recently gently schooled on this by an activist who is also a member of the community and happens to be a family member. Thanks!
The problem is not the people who are getting rich by scaring and infuriating our neighbors. The problem is that so many around us have defective bullshit detectors! They are good enough to sniff out and avoid a bad used truck deal! But when they hear a preposterous conspiracy myth about election fraud, socialism or horrible affronts to suffering white christians ? That bullshit they’ll swallow whole!
We watched the documentary about Dr. Fauci. I was naive about what people have been led to think about him. Public health used to be non-controversial. But Rand Paul, Marge, Gym Jordan, etc., have championed the cause of Freedom, against the dreaded enemy Public Health. Why listen to experts? What do they know that you don’t?
The U.S. Public Health Service ran the Tuskegee study ran from 1932 to 1972; eugenics studies led to thousands of people being forcibly sterilized between 1907 and 1963; public health has often been used as an excuse to pass immigration limits for non-white people; I can't agree that Public Health used to be non-controversial.
Point taken. I was thinking of when the polio vaccine arrived to the immense relief of my parents and most all since then. Maybe what was not controversial was the idea that we could and should take individual actions to protect the health of others, not just ourselves.
Interesting that we can remember "everyone" lining up for the sugar cube to prevent polio in the early 50s but by 2020 thousands didn't trust the Covid vaccine.
Our denial of science may kill us faster than any other factor. The embrace of science got us where we are, now there is nostalgia for medieval thinking (Greene, et al.) The CDC report along with the Fauci documentary would have been unthinkable before Trump.
And they need to get religion out of the equation and equal rights into the equation. The fight is for ALL women, not just some. Women need to be more vocal about their rights as citizens!
But let's not forget that the R's are trying to put women back in the home barefoot and pregnant (side comment-what will they want to do to we post menopause women since we can't have children?)
It is more than just about economics and military alliances, Xi and Putin's alliance covers an enormous fraction of the earth's landmass--much of which is critical to controlling climate change--especially due to the danger of permafrost in Siberia warming and liberating massive amounts of greenhouse gases. With the news that the critical deadline for major global warming mitigation has moved up to the mid 2030's the danger has increased substantially. Russia is going to be the wild card controlling global warming and it is in the hands of an autocratic madman.
100%. The tipping point for climate rests a lot in the Siberian tundra. When the tundra thaws out, a 100 million year reservoir of CO2 will be released into the atmosphere. And there is no way to put it back. The amount of CO2 locked in the frozen tundra isn’t hard to measure, it’s easy for scientists to estimate by sampling. The amount released will be permanent and catastrophic. CO2 is not just a warming and ocean level issue. CO2 levels in the air will also find equilibrium like all gasses do with surface water. In the water, CO2 converts to Carbonic acid and lowers the ph of the water. How will phytoplankton survive in an acidic environment? Phytoplankton isn’t just the beginning of the Ocean’s food chain, it is also responsible for the majority of O2 production on planet Earth. Hie will the ocean ecosystem respond to such pressure? Which crisis will we face first? Dwindling fisheries and food shortages? Unbearable heat and no winters, lack of snow to replenish reservoirs? fresh water shortages? unpredictable super storms, cyclones, tornados, massive flooding and landslides? displacing 100’s of millions globally. Or slowly suffocating on a changed atmosphere no longer able to regenerate itself?
On the issue of climate, perhaps a little humility and curiosity would do us all some good. Or just continue with the status quo, enriching the dictators and Authoritarian kleptocrat repressive & corrupt regimes abroad?
Which people will be displaced first and what will the repercussions be? Will America and Europe be able to absorb so many displaced climate refugees? How will leaders manage the largest migration of humans in history ...during food shortages/famines during their own climate catastrophes? Countries that control the food and energy supply control a lot of our world. Ukraine remains a critical country in all of the above.
The vast majority of climate refugees are going to be people of color. Look at the racist immigration policies growing more stringent in Europe and the US. The question is not if Europe and America are able to accpet so many climate refugees it is whether they are willing to do so. How many are already drowning trying to cross the Mediterrian and dying of thirst on our own southern border?
There is only one solution that is humane and equitable and that is to allow in more climate refugees and to pay reparations to mitigate the effects in poorer countries so that people do not have to be displaced. What these racist governments have to understand is that the problem can't be solved with armed conflict to preserve borders. The population pressures will simply be too great and the financial cost of "border protection" will be become overwhelming. It will be far less expensive to accept the refugees and provide jobs and training to integrate them into and grow our economy than it is to expand a military capable of fighting them off. The US, Japan and Europe have to wake up to the fact that demographics are not in their favor and that the most developed nations bear the responsibility for the climate crisis.
And remember how Putin started carpet bombing Syrian cities right after Merkel said Germany would take 1/2 million more refugees a year. He supplied them to all of Europe by flattening their homes and entire cities. And at the same time donated cash to all the conservative political parties in Europe ( and the US through dark PACS and NRA). Then followed up with a massive social media campaign of propaganda, miss and disinformation, labeling all immigrants as thieves and rapists. Those conservative politicians returned the loans and donations (bribles really) by ratcheting up anti immigrant rhetoric, riling up their bases for votes. Like throwing gas on a fire that Putin created. With climate change, this will only get much much worse. And who gains from all this displacement and human suffering?
"The Republican Party has tied itself to [Trump] so completely it is now .... calling for the investigation or even the arrest of those handling Trump’s many lawsuits.... . Right now ...neither the legal nor the political momentum is in [Trump's] favor. " If these two statements are correct, the 2024 implications for Democrats are pretty good.
It is my understanding that Congress does not have any legal standing to investigate the courts in NY. This is the loudmouth, attention grabbing histrionics that feed their base. What is so frustrating is how blindly the MAGA faithful cleave to this false alarm and narrative. It remains a dangerous effort to undermine democracy.
Yes. It's ironic that they both want to advance states' rights over federalism, and then they make a point of trying to interfere in a state's functioning because they don't like it.
You are right about Congress's having NO authority to investigate ANY state court. In fact, Glenn Kirschner has suggested that this attempt by Jordan and friends to interfere with an ongoing prosecution could be investigated as obstruction of justice. I would LOVE to see that, but Manhattan DA Bragg will most likely just file it away and ignore it.
De Santis is a dangerous enemy of democracy lurking down there in Florida-I hope the long term thinkers in the DNC and others are considering how to keep him far from the national stage.
The DNC just plain needs to not abandon Florida, like they have in the past few election cycles. There are good folks in Florida, fighting the good fight, they just need some extra help... kinda like Ukraine.
I keep wondering about all the retired folks in Florida who moved from blue states and cities. Why are they as a group not speaking out against DeSantis. I'm pretty sure the majority of those retirees moved there for the weather not the politics.
Just when so many were expecting the top story to be Trump's indictment, you have the courage to point out that the top story was not our domestic one, but rather the international story involving Russia and China. As I was reading your letter all I could think of was Rick Blaine standing on a fog shrouded tarmac telling Ilsa Lund ". . . it doesn't take much to see that the problems of three little people don't amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world. Someday you'll understand that. Now, now. Here's looking at you, kid."
If justice prevails, Trump and his minions will be dealt with appropriately. We just have to remember that there are other crises in the world -- Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the "mortgaging" of the Kremlin to Beijing, for example -- that exist and require our awareness and attention.
His days are numbered. I predict he will not be the GOP candidate for President EVER again. He is fighting legal battles on 3 or 4 fronts at one time. His "team" is not that talented. Fox has it's own issues. He is an "icon" in decline in every possible way. Custer was able to get out of trouble in his career until he couldn't. He ended up swamped in a situation of his own making....and those working against him came together in a way they never had before. That's DJT's reality right now. Just watch. Long live the memories of Crazy Horse & Sitting Bull.
George was the best. It blows my mind when I'm at a re-enactment and see 3 guys pretending to be Custer. That's just weird. What's to love about the preening fool ? I don't think any other US Army officer ever lost his entire organization in one battle.
Mike but the reality is, he has grifted for 76 years and not spent a day in jail. The House that was so graciously handed to the GOP, are working steadily to dismantle the Manhattan DA's case. I don't know if the case is that strong to indict. Low hanging fruit cases often dissolve before brought forward.
By the time any other substantial case is brought to indictment level, time will have run out. He is already enjoying an ass kicking lead over DeSantis or even Biden in every poll I have seen. Pushing the envelope further, will emboldened him that much more.
There are several other cases in the works. He's surrounded and time runs out for these guys historically. I choose to be more optimistic than you given the evidence I see here and elsewhere. I will bet any amount of $$ you like that he will NEVER be President again.
Hoping to live so long as never to hear his name again, or see his putrid face, or even be aware of the country’s traitors. Maybe government in the background just set the stage for this nightmare, but I loved focusing on my issues, not the existential threat to my country and earth’s existence.
Actually his name will be remembered...but not the way he wanted. He will eclipse Nixon, Buchanan & Johnson as the worst by a wide margin. He'll become the textbook example of "don't do that...it doesn't work".
The last poll I saw had him in the bottom 4, but not totally at the bottom of the deep blue sea. He will be remembered...for awhile. How many people can name the Presidents on either side of Lincoln ?
Mike Bachelor James Buchanan, who had a gay buddy and Andrew Johnson, who was a dismal political choice for a ‘Union’ ticket when it looked like Lincoln wouldn’t be re-elected (before the taking of Atlanta)
....and my sleep! Never in my long life have I had trouble sleeping before 2015-16...waking up worrying about what Trump and MAGAs are doing to lead the blind citizens down the wrong path.
Jeri, I hear you. At 64 and at a downsizing time in my life, I want to make a slow turn away from what is blasting on the television and my smartphone to a simpler life that I have control of what happens next. I need to have the solace in plotting my garden. Not Donald Trumps next revenge.
Which comes first—the blather or the headlines? Democrats know they cannot ignore the blather any more when Republican’ts say the most outlandish things in support of the manbaby. As some readers said today, the difference between the 45 revolving door officials like Secretary of State (how many in 4 years?) and Biden’s choices is so impressive.
So true. DJT was clueless about being an elected President. He's used to being the titular head of HIS empire(s). He is the most broken example of a human being out on the world stage today. Becoming President is the worst thing he could have ever done to himself. Sure he got the attention he craved and needs for awhile. But the end game ain't pretty in any way. The sharks are circling...fins on the Left, Fins on the Right...Jimmy Buffet could have some fun with this one...and then throw in Volcano as the encore. "Where you gonna go when the volcano blow ????"
I tapped out my 1/2 cup of inspiration on the first one; gonna have to listen to "Volcano" again and see if I can engineer a verse for Moscow. And drink more cofee.
Unfortunately, trump's run for and occupation of the WH and his continued blathering presence in the news cycle is the worst possible political outcome that could have ever happened to all of us. He is a two-bit (albeit dangerous) cult figure that is as much of a whack job as any of the worst-of-the worst dictators in history.
" Becoming President is the worst thing he could have ever done to himself."
Who is using the FBI against its citizens? Who added 88000 IRS agents to go after its citizens? Who is trying to roll back gun rights? Police are language? Censor our speech?
Xi and Putin are brothers in genocide, Xi against the Uyghurs, Putin against the Ukrainians. Those countries failing to condemn these murderers, as India fails to do, also wage war against their own citizens. Republicans have adopted this war on their on citizens strategy with their dog whistling Anti-Semitism call of Soros, Soros Soros. Demonizing minorities is on the first page of the authoritarian handbook. Turning them against each other as Russian active measures did in the 2016 attempt to incite African American anger at Jews is one variation.
Soros is the whipping boy that never fails to get repubs the response that makes the cult nuts salivate. There are so many Republican billionaire traitors that it would take volumes to expose them all. Of course, the Soros crap has been calculated for how many decades? I remember from when I was young….long, long ago…
Xi and Putin and Bush are brothers in genocide, Bush against the (innocent) Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq, Xi against the Uyghurs (in emulation of Bush), and Putin against the Ukrainians (again, in emulation of Bush).
Bush was also a role model in the long line of Republican thieves of elections. Al Gore actually won the 2000 election. Once all the votes were actually counted. Another victory in perfidy for our corrupted Supreme Court. 😡
Mike, the difference is that W left office and took up oil painting and what-not, and right now we have an administration lead by smarter and more ethical people, don’t we? Whereas Russia’s brief experiment with elections has resulted in Putin’s grasping power and clinging to it like a orphaned baby monkey clings to the towel covered wire doll, lost and alone. Xi is another story, looking out from the long view of the world’s oldest sophisticated culture and most populous nation on earth. I wonder what calculations his people are making about climate change? Guess I should see what there is published about this man.
Here is what I found to answer my own question. What should we make of this?
By 2030, China aims to decrease its carbon intensity by over 65 % from the 2005 level, and to reach over 1 200 GW installed wind and solar power. The share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption should reach 25 % by 2030. China's forest stock should be 6 billion cubic metres above the 2005 level by 2030.Oct 16, 2022
I looked up info on Soros' donations yesterday because I had mostly heard only the Republican crap about him re socialism and find that I heartily approve of what he supports (no surprise). Especially all he gives to America Votes.
Xi has been murdering Tibetans since he invaded Tibet in 1950. It is estimated 1.5 million Tibetans have died at China's hands. Now the Chinese are harvesting the Tibetans' DNA.
When I think of the perspective from 2200, I can only think of two questions. Did we find a way to stop the overheating of the planet, and did we find a way to avoid WW3?
I found this interesting: See Sam Greene's comments on Heather's front page. "If you're looking for the TL;DR on Xi's visit with Putin, it is this: China's domination of Russia is complete." Followed by a pretty full summary of their discussion.
Thank you Heather, for writing about the Russia/China “alliance”, Japan’s support of Ukraine & Biden’s designation of park lands. Oil drilling too. Your mention of Trump is certainly important but , egads, he takes up so much oxygen and I do not like being drawn into that vortex, which is so easy to do.
There are two loci, for me, where news and information is most important: locally, because what happens locally affects everything nationally on a much greater scale than the other way around, and the Rest of the World--about which we in the USA hear far too little--because ignorance of what is happening outside the USA means a total lack of understanding (and empathy) for the challenges and traumas that drive the rest of the human race who don't live in the USA. The Ukraine war has placed Eastern Europe in the sights of Americans but I bet that most cannot identify it on a map or explain why it is important. The coverage of the "anniversary" of the US invasion of Iraq has been infuriating me because of all the moaning about American deaths and almost no discussion of the--possibly as many as a million--Iraqi deaths and the complete and utter destruction of the infrastructure of a formerly prosperous and functioning country. I sympathize with American families that mourn the loss of their loved ones, but when the difference in pain and harm is at this order of magnitude, it's time to grow up. Americans need more information about what is happening in front of their noses AND on the other side of the world. Both are of historical interest, especially if one is a "longue durée" historian like myself. Medievalists are focusing more and more on the ways in which the activities and experiences of people on the local level affected the shaping of events and experiences on a broader scale. And we are coming up with radically different analyses and conclusions as a result: ones that are no longer adopting the 19th-century imperialist assumptions that drove the writing of history until very recently. We in the USA maintain our intellectual isolationism at our peril.
I am interested in the change in focus that Medievalists are taking on in examining from micro to macro, rather than the other way around. I think that must be an interesting perspective shift.
Americans are so incredibly blind to world history (and I put myself into that category) that it is cause for embarrassment. As nations go, we are toddlers, and have that "me me me all the time me me me" toddler world view. The only way America ended up as a world power at such an early age was the advantages taken by the genocide of the Indigenous Peoples of this land and on the enslavement of Black Africans kidnapped and brought to this country.
Regarding the GWOT (encompassing Afghanistan and Iraq) and the "anniversary" of the invasion of Iraq... we Americans do like our "milestone" anniversaries. The fact that our invasion of Iraq was based on greed/revenge and not on any real geopolitical "need" never enters the equation any more than the deaths of the Iraqis (civilian and military) ever does. I am not of an age where I had either friends or family members in the service who died in either Vietnam or GWOT (I am a "tweener" of those to debacles myself, and had no children who would have been in line for GWOT). I can appreciate that our combat fallen are honored for defending freedom because to speak the truth of the matter would be devastating to those families. The lack of acknowledgment of the civilian deaths we caused is a stain upon our nation.
I'm with you, Ally. I have known people who served in Vietnam (or avoided serving) and have had many students and a couple very dear friends who were veterans of the latest US wars of aggression that were presented as "defensive" but patently were not. They're a mess, to be honest: all of them suffer from some level of PTSD. And those who were there are only too aware of the chaos and destruction they were told to wreak. Even when their remit was to rebuild and renew.
As for the medieval push toward embracing the idea of the personal being political, those of us in the historical community who do archival research, especially in local or regional rather than national/central archives (although with medieval sources, the local stuff often winds up in the national institutions) with the goal to be more inclusive in our subjects have always demonstrated that the individual's actions had larger repercussions, even when the individual wasn't a king or a male magnate. All of my books have been focused on this as a project. Perhaps the most accessible way of encountering the issue is a recent essay collection (and yes: I'm one of the authors!), Medieval Elite Women and the Exercise of Power, 1100-1400: Moving Beyond the Exceptionalist Debate, ed. Heather Tanner (Palgrave Macmillan, 2019). It's stupid expensive--all P-M books tend to be--but it's in a fair number of library collections.
Thanks for the suggestion. I'm going to see if I can find it.
Because of my "tweener"ness, I have worked with both Vietnam and GWOT Veterans, as well as dealt with many of them on a professional level. I have a dear friend whose son was an Iraqi Vet, discharged from the Army following an awful year of combat where he was the only survivor in two separate engagements where his entire platoon was wiped out. He never got the help he so desperately needed and sought, and killed himself in a DUII crash less than 2 years after his discharge. Our medical and psychological treatment of Veterans remains severely inadequate.
There was an excellent editorial in the newspaper yesterday, by Trudy Rubin (from the Philadelphia Inquirer) that effectively explains WHY supporting Ukraine is important. People who complain that we shouldn't be spending American resources to help Ukraine should be encouraged to read it. Those people are either too young to remember or they slept through history class.
I think Biden’s approval of the Willow Project is a calculated political move aimed at his reelection. Conservative independents who are not comfortable voting for the “environmental president” now have a way to vote for Biden. Criticism by environmentalists serve to reinforce this view.
Conoco Phillips is a long way away from actual production. A lot can happen in the meantime; a presidential election is one of those things. If Biden is re-elected, there could well be unforeseen problems developing with North Slope oil production that will take even more time to resolve. Hey! Who knew?
Joe Biden is the sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment. He does nothing without a calculated purpose.
Those progressives/environmentalists who would stay home on Election Day in a snit because of Biden’s approval of the Willow Project, should contemplate the damage to the environment if (shudder)TFG, or indeed any Republican, gets elected president.
Everybody votes in 2024!
Yup, Joe IS calculating for the future. Not just the Willow Project, but he has China a bit worried, too. President Xi sees the difference in NATO and the EU plus, more recently, the AUKUS pact that comes along with support from Japan, etc. and knows that has the fingerprints of Joe Biden all over the place. The influence of the US is growing in Africa, too. And what’s it all about?
Democracy vs Autocracy - pure and simple.
About the Willow Project: Soon, WE (including “progressives and environmentalists”) need to cool our engines (gas-driven, hybrid, and EV) and come to the REALISTIC UNDERSTANDING that we are in a Transition Phase in terms of energy production and use. This isn’t a “Today we are fossil; tomorrow we are renewable. Pull the breaker at midnight!” This is a decades long transition, and we need to simply WORK TOGETHER on that transition. BUT, the goal should not be to put ConocoPhillips or Shell or EXXON MOBIL out of business. We can “assist” the Fossils to transition themselves into Hybrids (at least) and, eventually even, into Renewables. Perhaps Conoco can be “helped” to also erect some solar panels and/or wind turbines at Willow. (Maybe the resulting electrical power can’t be transmitted to huge population centers, but maybe to villages close by, plus it can be used at the Willow site itself.)
Eventually, the Fossils won’t be driven out of business, but they can become true Energy Companies. When we pull into a Mobil station, we can get gasoline and/or electricity ALL PRODUCED by Mobil.
Yup, but decades from now….let’s cool our engines!
Paul, the problem is that the "transition phase" from fossil fuels to renewables started wayyyy too late, and has barely started at all.
One thing that I always think has been missing in these discussions is that the technology at the heart of solar and wind renewables is not very old and not understood by many environmental interests. No I not talking about batteries. That technology is solid state power hardware. We all know about the transistor and computers but few understand that it was until 1990's that we had power solid-state in wide use. It allows us to convert DC to AC and back.
And we don’t have the infrastructure in place to deal with the power being generated by all these individual solar energy systems. Right now in our area the energy provider is limiting how much they can accept. My husband was a high voltage engineer for years. I don’t understand all the issues surrounding it and your average person putting up solar panels probably doesn’t understand it either.
And Mary Beth, most people considering solar panels probably have a lot of unease around the economics of switching. As I see it, that’s a real bottleneck.
Unfortunately the way we calculate the economics of switching is short-term and only includes a narrow measurement of costs/benefits. Long-term payout of direct and indirect benefits in both dollars and other intangible pluses is much greater but more difficult to measure concretely. Sometimes it takes faith. There was pushback on the tremendous investment in NASA. But consider the many economic benefits resulting from NASA’s research that are only apparent with hindsight. We are too short term and narrow in planning for the future. Our culture needs to shift to the long game. Not betting on our ability to do that.
As I read your comment it hit me: we are placing the responsibility for fixing the climate problem on individuals instead of the fossil fuel industry. They've known for decades that anthropomorphic climate change is real and will lead to calamitous outcomes. They deliberately traded away the globes future for the sake of a few bucks. It's the tobacco industry to the nth degree.
My brother-in-law had hot water from solar panels from the 1960’s. We can start “small” too and then enlarge rapidly. Good luck to US all. (I’ve had heat pumps in Chicago condo since the ‘90’s. Didn’t know what they were until we bought the condo in a refurbished section 8 building. Bit of luck, as they work well, winter and summer.)
Yup, I agree that the “transition phase” has been going on for too long. I’m a Tom Paxson “Whose Garden Was This” kinda folksinger. We FINALLY have some reliable renewable technologies, even though we also have some questionable battery/storage technology that we need to improve.
The problem is that we do not have the electrical infrastructure to support a rapid transition to pure electric vehicles nor do we have the infrastructure in place for battery storage to support a grid that is dominated by alternate energy sources that are not constant in output. It is going to take decades to build out the grid.
So let's start the process!
Already started. Some provisions for building electric plugs in stations are in the Inflation Reduction Act along with so much more.
Paul, The fossil fuel industry transition phase is moving from fuel production to plastic production, resulting in even more emissions. This has been the plan for quite some time. See links below for their next great scam:
Excerpt:
“Reducing fuel consumption won't necessarily solve the plastic problem. Global plastic production is expected to double in the next 15 years even as demand for gasoline wanes. In 2017, 50% of all crude oil produced worldwide was refined into fuel for transport, most as gasoline. Electric vehicles and more efficient forms of public transport mean gasoline demand is falling. The oil and gas companies who own these refineries are instead gearing up to turn what is now excess fuel into plastics for packaging.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-fossil-fuel-industry-future-product.amp
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/11/897692090/how-big-oil-misled-the-public-into-believing-plastic-would-be-recycled
So true! Excellent comment that I have not yet seen addressed by others! And so much clothing is even made from plastic now!
The plastics problem has become infinitely worse. Even as we hear about the amount of trash in our oceans and plastic particles being found in the bodies of animals, it's become very, very difficult to avoid products packaged in plastic -- especially at the grocery store.
I don’t disagree at all, Angela, about your concerns about plastics. In my lifetime, we have transitioned TO plastics and now need to transition FROM plastics. The real question then is: How can We, the People get convinced that plastics (wanna add certain batteries?) are not good solutions? Of course the related problem is: What are some wonderful alternatives?
Your comment should be published far and wide. Bravo.
I have no ability to comprehend that anyone would be concerned for: “BUT, the goal should not be to put ConocoPhillips or Shell or EXXON MOBIL out of business.”
“ConocoPhillips said on Thursday profit more than doubled to $18.7 billion in 2022, the highest since the company spun off its refining business in 2012, as the oil producer benefited from stronger prices on tight supplies and robust demand.”
https://www.oilandgas360.com/conocophillips-joins-rivals-with-bumper-profit-on-higher-energy-prices/
Called a “multinational”, they own operations in around 15 different countries
How many decades do you think we have? We don’t. There are no decades to be had!
Stanford | News
https://news.stanford.edu/2023/01/30/ai-predicts-global-warming-will-exceed-1-5-degrees-2030s/
“The study, published Jan. 30 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, provides new evidence that global warming is on track to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial averages in the early 2030s, regardless of how much greenhouse gas emissions rise or fall in the coming decade.”
Ralph, I don’t disagree at all with your assessment of the political choices behind Biden’s approval of the Willow project. As completely pissed off as I am about it, your assessment was also mine. Yet.
Gen Z voters are the future. The progressive/environmental voters I’ve worked with my entire life know that tfg or any Republican would not prioritize climate protections. We’ve made those tight uncomfortable political choices throughout. And the second we had a trifecta D national government, introduced the Build Back Better legislation. We know how this works. We accepted the losses and got the Inflation Reduction Act. Its working.
What will young voters decide? Because that’s one of the major groups that got us to where we are by showing up in 2022.
Gen Z is hyper aware of what they face in the climate crisis. Will they parse out Biden’s decision as we have? Will they set aside their rage and cynicism at this kind of politically sharp decision-making? While I desperately hope so, I worry.
Climate scientists just issued what they called their final warning on climate - we have roughly a decade to rapidly reduce carbon emissions in order to prevent the worst possible scenarios.
But what about those who have already lost everything? The Native communities in Alaska whose entire villages are disappearing because of rising oceans? Or the Island nations who are desperate to find ways to desalinate water for drinking water and growing food? There are millions of other stories out there including the fact the the Syrian civil war began over water rights arguments because of the epic 500 year drought they continue to experience.
When or how do we find the political will to prioritize the climate? Rhetorical question. But a pretty damned important one. (If anyone has answers, I’m all ears)
Sheila,
Entire villages in Alaska were changing their locations decades ago if not centuries.....for economic reasons. Will rising oceans impact Florida? The jobs in Alaska due to this Willow Project will only be temporary for the most part and then only 300 permanent jobs. Is that worth it? In any case, look at those who support this project. Alaskan villagers are being used, again, by big oil. I do support what Biden is doing because it will take forever for oil to start flowing and that is a very remote area used by big game hunters who are not after meat but trophies. Money that trickles out of that project into Native hands changes subsistence ways and culture. Money that flows out of that project into the state treasury is sorely needed at this time due to the previous boom and bust. I dont buy many of the arguments for opening this area to oil production but I trust Biden.
Gen Z is important. I think they will show up because they know that the former president or other Republicans are the worse choice. Biden's protection of the Pacific Ocean area and the designation of the national monuments are thought to be in exchange for the opening of ANWR but I think they could be looked at as in addition to.
Mary Peltola, Alaska's Democrat Rep in the US House, and a native American, says that the money is needed by Native Americans to build schools, and the like. You can listen to HCR's take here
https://www.facebook.com/heathercoxrichardson/videos/1385246698990230 (starts at minute 38:29)
The GH emissions that will result from Willow are trivial--equivalent to 2.8% of the US' emissions for a single year.
i am totally against this Alaskan oil project for the reasons you describe so well.
Well said Sheila and spot on. Environmental issues are those the world’s populace should be allowed a vote; so many millions affected by decisions of the few!
Sheila B, We vote Democratic, no matter what. And we vote en masse. That’s what we do. The Republicans “do not believe in climate change.” When we have a Democratic president and Congress, we can work faster on all climate, planet-saving legislation!
Old story - The perfect is the enemy of the good.
Rather than “old”, because semantics are everything these days, that saying is a brick in the foundation of anything useful
Ralph, I'd like to contribute to a fund to purchase the world's largest megaphone for you. With every right-wing bigmouth cheering, and many on the left weeping about Biden's diminished mental capacity, it's wonderful to hear someone with good sense reminding us of Biden's true mental capacity. Thank you!
I'd go in on that. Ralph's comment and Paul's follow up are the two most sensible arguments I've heard on the subject.
Dave, I agree.
Such an excellent point. And yes: just like the Bernie supporters who stayed home in a snit and prevented Hillary from winning in 2016, if the progressives/environmentalists choose to stay home in a snit over the Willow Project, the consequences may be dire enough to bring down what's left of our democracy.
Bernie voters didn’t stay home in large numbers. Bernie campaigned harder than Hillary in the last weeks before election even though Hilary made zero outreach to those voters unlike Biden (it’s the leaders job to negotiate for those votes not assume she is owed them out of loyalty) . Who stayed home were the Black voters in Milwaukee she didn’t bother to visit.
You're correct. Thank you. I guess because I personally knew of/knew a very large number of college students in my town who chose not to vote b/o Bernie losing the primary, I am prejudiced in the way I've viewed the situation.
Here’s some additional information about what ConocoPhillips can and can’t do. There is a reason that oil companies didn’t grab leases from ANWR when tffg opened it up in 2017. The tundra is fragile. The Arctic is warming very fast making the tundra increasingly vulnerable. There are laws that protect the fauna and flora. My husband worked for years as a subsistence representative and a marine mammal observer. Oil companies are required to have them on board. They are guardians of the environment. There was a very short window of time that the tundra is frozen that they could do seismic testing because of the harm to the tundra and animals when it wasn’t frozen. There is much that can be done to protect the earth by focusing on such existing regulations.
Also I heard a POV today that made an argument that the public will get a much better education with ConocoPhillips being on the defense in the lawsuits, rather than vice versa. Words matter. We can educate and bring along folks as we focus on the progress and small wins.
There is a real risk of losing all the progress we’ve made and much more, if we get another 4 year MAGA administration. Thanks to the constant negative narrative because of not getting the whole enchilada from the far left and the lies from the current GOP we don’t have a lot of wiggle room. We’re doing a lot of winning. Let’s talk about the winning. I’d much rather be on a team of winners than moaners and groaners.
Also.... https://earthjustice.org/press/2023/conservation-groups-sue-to-stop-the-willow-oil-project-in-alaskas-western-arctic Please support Earthjustice in this litigation.
Thanks for posting great inside information!
https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-43/subtitle-B/chapter-II/subchapter-B/part-2360
Ralph Averill. You message is critical, on target, vital to the survival of our democratic experiment in government.
Thank you for your great comment Ralph. The process for the Willow Project approval was a day and night difference in how such things were previously done. As people everywhere remind us, perfect is the enemy of progress.
Alaskans, and in particularly indigenous Alaskans living in one of the harshest environments in our world, stand to get $$ for education and healthcare from development. Recent reductions in oil $ after decades of being a subsistence economy that suddenly got flooded with oodles of 💰 leaves culture shock after culture shock.
I would much prefer no drilling but this is an extremely complex issue that impacts local lives directly. It’s so demoralizing to see millions of people who have done next to nothing to take care of Mother Earth for decades, suddenly care so much, that they threaten to hand over the greatest democracy that the world has ever known to the worst lying and thieving tyrants. How arrogant of them to paternalistically think they know what’s best for people that are directly impacted by the Willow Project. We must take better care of Mother Earth but we should not expect to push that burden solely onto the Indigenous peoples who were forced into a cash economy by the never ending Westernized greed to accumulate money and materials. It’s so effing complicated and I am sick of people (not you Ralph!! ❤️) spouting uninformed judgements.
https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/interior-department-substantially-reduces-scope-willow-project
We tried to tell people this in 2016 particularly related to Supreme Court. And now we see what happens when people do not understand pragmatic politics.
“Pragmatic” ⭐️🌟 thank you for using the perfect word!
This reminds me of the Poem that HRC read at her graduation from Wellesley about the “art of making possible”:
“Earth could be fair. And you and I must be free
Not to save the world in a glorious crusade
Not to kill ourselves with a nameless gnawing pain
But to practice with all the skill of our being
The art of making possible.”
https://www.wellesley.edu/events/commencement/archives/1969commencement/studentspeech
I hope I live to see the day that we can have a POTUS that could match her wisdom, knowledge and experience. 7B+ human souls on a shrinking earth is going to require more of all of us.
I would love to see some of what progressives want asap. But it doesn't happen that way. What bothered me about 2016 that because of purity, we actually took many steps back. I confess to having many so called progressives on my blocked list including one that I voted for in the primary against Schroeder. But then when HRC was the nominee and I was arguing for voting for her, he got on my page with a lot of dreck.
Oh yes Ralph - anyone and everyone who recognizes the climatic perils that are rearing their ugly heads today needs to vote in 2024, against any Republican candidate be it Trump or someone else. It would be insane to stay home. Romney is the only Republican I know of who is sounding the climate change alarm. All others are just suicidally hell bound to go in the opposite direction (it's "woke" after all). But he has not abandoned the party, which in my mind tells it all (he would flip flop on that issue at a moments notice). Besides, he hasn't thrown his hat into the ring.
I also read somewhere that there was another part of the Willow deal the protected other parts of Alaska. No one is talking about that very loudly. Also, I think now is the time to make this deal with enough gap before 2024. For better or worse, Americans in general have short memories and this will probably not make the top five issues by then.
I agree that there are many hurdles to jump before one ounce comes out of the ground, if that.
I posted the press release on this somewhere about 45 minutes ago, it explains much of what was compromised
I think that environmentalists may make this issue in their Top Five.
"I also read somewhere that there was another part of the Willow deal the protected other parts of Alaska."
Not true. Biden scotched 2 drilling sites proposed by Conoco. I'll eat dog food the day any oil company "protects" anything other than their own interests.
Marycat2021 - President Biden also obtained other concessions in return for the permit going forward. From Earthjustice: "As part of the decision to approve Willow, the Biden administration also finished the job of protecting federal Arctic waters from new oil and gas leasing and announced a process to increase protections of important biological areas in the Western Arctic."
Earthjustice has filed suit against ConocoPhillips & the Willow project, a far better approach than to have the U.S. as defendant, the probable outcome if Biden had not signed the permit. Please contribute to Earthjustice for this lawsuit. https://earthjustice.org/press/2023/conservation-groups-sue-to-stop-the-willow-oil-project-in-alaskas-western-arctic?ms=homepage-hero
“Conoco Phillips is a long way away from actual production. A lot can happen in the meantime….”
Exactly what I was thinking after Biden approved it. In fact I thought he approved it knowing fully well that any production might well not take place.
Or be so delayed that things (increased demand for electric vehicles?) could dramatically change by the time production would start.
You really think an oil company would ever simply cancel oil production because alternatives are becoming more available? Do you have any idea how illogical that is?
We knew back in the 1960's that cigarettes kill people, but did that stop the tobacco companies from manufacturing and selling cigarettes in any country on earth? And doing so unethically?
“Do you have any idea how illogical that is?”
This is the kind of a comment used by bullies who have no interest in sharing ideas and points of views.
Some experts think quite differently
“Republican presidents and congressional leaders repeatedly attempted to open the refuge to drilling but were consistently stifled – until 2017. That year, the Trump administration opened it to leasing. Ironically, no companies were interested. Oil prices had fallen, risk was high and the reputational cost was large.”
https://alaskabeacon.com/author/scottlmontgomery/
I'm not a bully. I resent that accusation.
That’s interesting.
“Bully”- a person who habitually seeks to harm or intimidate those whom they perceive as vulnerable.
I made a comment on my opinion of your choice of words. No where did I call you anything. As you see from the definition, it contains the word habitually. I have no clue if you use such words habitually or not. Can you agree that saying to another that their thinking is “illogical” is an attempt to silence their POV?
Not. Exactly the opposite. If I simply wanted to shut you down, I would have said your opinion is bullshit. But I didn't. I merely meant that basing environmental policy on pure conjecture would be illogical, much like saying that Trump isn't going to be president in 2024 because he could be in prison by then. :)
It’s called capitalism. If it doesn’t benefit their bottom line they would cancel production. Whatever the reason making it not profitable to proceed, be that alternatives becoming more available, the price of oil dropping to the point that pursuing production isn’t worth doing, whatever the reason, if it’s not profitable enough then yes they would cancel production.
A lot can happen between now and when they get their infrastructure in place and ready to begin extraction. Fwiw getting their infrastructure in place will take years not months.
A lot can happen, such as a Republican president is in the WH and they think drilling all over previously protected federal land is a great idea. The energy sector will not change, it owns oil fields all over the world and will not shut them down in our lifetimes, especially when roughly one-third of the world does not have the money to launch alternative energy programs.
You think kicking the can down the road is OK? Really?
I have no doubt there’s more to the decision, more information behind making it than to simplify and summarize it as kicking the can down the road. Am I concerned about it? Yes! Am I pleased about it? No. But I also trust our current President’s decision making and the process he takes in making those decisions.
One very real issue is the condition of the oil pipeline. Drilling is meaningless if there's no way to transport the oil to refineries in the lower 48. Alyeska claims the pipeline "continues to operate normally" but it was designed to work at much higher flow than it has had in the last few years and that allows the oil to flow more slowly and cool providing more opportunities for rust. Ironically warming permafrost has also caused problems for the pipeline.
We cannot afford to lose the new congressional representative of Alaska, Democrat Mary Pertola. Maybe the Willow project approval will help keep her there.
You seriously think the potential for environmental catastrophe is nothing compared to keeping a Democrat from Alaska in office?
Google:
"The Willow project will add 239 million metric tons of carbon emissions to the atmosphere over the next 30 years – equivalent to the annual emissions of 64 coal-fired power plants. Environmental organisations have called it a “carbon bomb”.Mar 15, 2023"
SAH Vashon makes an excellent point. The oil is still in the ground. If green energy gets increasingly easy to consume, the cost of extracting oil from the earth becomes less and less lucrative. One more Democrat is one less fascist.
Thanks for supporting my statement! Alaska is its own country. (I was a resident for 9 years). Remember they thought they should dam the Suisitna? Some truly awful things, thankfully, never get funded🤔!
Or when they thought they could make a harbor with an atomic bomb?
🤯💥😖
So you're saying we shouldn't worry about it? Seriously, yours and Vashon's reasoning is faulty in light of the facts.
"Solving the climate crisis cannot be accomplished with clean-energy technology alone; keeping oil and gas reserves in the ground must be a part of the solution too. When it comes to fossil fuel extraction on public lands, the U.S. remains pointed in the wrong direction.
The U.S. ranks as the second-largest emitter of climate pollution on the planet. Yet the government’s Willow decision is a worrisome harbinger of what could be to come, as new fossil-fuel projects are on track to win approval just as they always have — even from agencies operating under a president who has repeatedly promised bold climate action and a transition to clean energy. Clearly, this is a broken system in need of repair." - Earthjustice
https://earthjustice.org/article/willow-project-federal-fossil-fuel-leasing
"The way things work now, agency decisions green-lighting drilling projects on public lands essentially occur in a vacuum, divorced from U.S. commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. An improved system would bake these federal climate commitments into the decision-making process. In practice, this could mean that no new lease sales could happen or oil-and-gas permits could be issued unless the proposals squared with U.S. climate goals. Tying fossil-fuel decisions to such a “climate screen” would help avoid development of carbon bombs." Doesn't this make more sense than just leaving it up to the industry to police itself, which is what you're proposing?
And I'm sorry, but one senator's job is not so important that we hand over the future of millions of acres of pristine ecosystem, and the fate of our planet, in exchange for preserving a political advantage. Really, that idea is just appalling.
Marycat, I really don’t have time for folks that go around claiming that anyone that disagrees with them is guilty of “faulty thinking”. Can’t imagine that you would be bothered to read anything contrary to your chosen beliefs, but here’s some water in case you want a drink:
https://alaskabeacon.com/2023/03/16/3-reasons-the-willow-arctic-oil-drilling-project-was-approved/
So better to hand Congress and maybe the White House as well over to the Republicans? That is the very real risk. See what that does to carbon statistics.
She's a Representative, not a Senator. And she's replaced Don Young who was everything we don't need in the House.
The Willow lease was sold in 1999. The laws under which drilling and mining leases on public lands are sold date back to the 1800s. There's a long history of terrible damage to the land in the name of profit. There's also a long history of pecking away at those laws that allowed that damage. Willow is part of that process; now that it is approved groups like earthjustice can file suit to stop actual drilling from happening.
Yes, it would be lovely if we could get all those laws repealed and all drilling and mining in the US could be stopped. Even better if we could get some real cleanup of all the sites done. We can dream. But we can also keep pecking away.
Meanwhile where are all those minerals, metals, and yes, oil going to come from.
Very well said, Ms. Harris. Thank you for your well thought out comment.
Only if it actually starts getting oil to Valdez.
There's a long way to go before that happens, and every step is an opportunity to stop.
I think that's wrong. I read elsewhere that it would release emissions equivalent to 2 million cars over its lifetime. 2 million cars running for 30 years is the same as 60 million cars running for a year. 60 million cars is slightly less than one fifth of the US fleet. Cars cause 16% of US annual GH emissions. 60 million cars cause 3.3 percent of a year's emissions. That's not much.
And here's Heather Cox Richardson on Willow:
https://www.facebook.com/heathercoxrichardson/videos/1385246698990230 (starts at minute 38:29)
Yes, if the Willow project is actually successful. If it is ever drilled and if it is actually put into production.
There's a whole bunch of ifs and about 20 years between now and Willow producing all those emissions.
The Willow lease was originally sold in 1999. The legal steps to actual equipment on the ground were started in 2018. There have been many other leases sold and even some that oil companies have spent additional millions doing exploratory drilling on. But that doesn't mean that oil is flowing into Valdez.
As Christy and SAH Vashon have pointed out; Biden's approval, with conditions, is an opportunity for legal maneuvering against the oil companies.
Environmental activists do not "stay home in a snit" on election day. We know that the government holds all the power to further the cause of saving the planet, we don't give up and stay home. We keep on, and that includes voting.
I am sorry, but some who spout their concern about the environment and other societal issues have stayed home previously. I have long argued with some of the progressives here in Salem that Biden is doing a pretty good job and that they ought to tout his successes instead of dissing him and others Ds doing their best all the time. Also anyone who hangs the word socialist on themselves can kiss being elected goodbye.
Dear Ralph,
I’m at a loss for words…you’re 100% joking…you’re using sarcasm in its finest form — right?
“Joe Biden is the sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment”
Scariest part of all, your comment was “liked” by well over 300 readers! OMG…what?!! You realize the WHOLE entire WORLD is flipping LAUGHING at your “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” correct?
Russia and China’s stronger alliance and the ultimate end of the “Petro-Dollar” is Biden’s doing — 100% caused by the current administration. Biden’s special ops folks blew up the Nord-Stream pipeline — unless you’ve been living in a cave, you’d absolutely know this to be true.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4O8rGRLf8
Speaking of the “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” here’s a little snipit to get yourself acquainted with reality.
https://rumble.com/vkaumu-australian-news-mocks-bidens-gaffes-like-ours-never-will.html
There are literally DOZENS and DOZENS of video clips of the “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” showing your guy actually competing with Kamala Harris for the least intelligent public official in the history of the United States of America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtYyfyr6Q-E
I can’t see in any public appearance where Joe Biden showed himself to be the “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” — “does nothing without calculated purpose”
WOW!!! 😱
I’m dead serious and stand by every word.
How’s the weather in Moscow?
Dear Ralph,
Both sides of the political aisle are hypnotized by “their” officials and will say or do ANYTHING to defend their ideologies. I feel sorry for folks like you who’ve gulped-down GALLONS of the “Blue or Red” Kool-Aide and believe EVERYTHING their side says or does. What makes you and yours-truly so different is my equal-opportunity disdain for the zealots on both sides (Donkeys and Elephants). When you say things like “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” and defend them (quote: “I’m dead serious and stand by every word”) you lose all credibility — and any non-biased observer would question your intelligence/motives. No, I’m not calling you stupid, I’m merely pointing out the fact that you’re “partisan-to-the-core” and cannot mentally/physically conceptualize the fact that your Donkey’s do bad/illegal crap just like the Elephants on the other side.
I have no idea what the weather is like in Moscow, but I can tell you —— your “sharpest political operator in Washington at the moment” —— (a flipping moron) is pulling the levers of WW-III and you’re absolutely oblivious to that fact.
Like I said, how’s the weather in Moscow? Still pretty cold I bet.
Arrogance and stupidity all in one package…how efficient of you…!!
So glad you shifted from the constant chatter of if and when Fake 45 will face the music to what Biden did today. He is slowly but surely handing back lands to the tribal nations, the rightful owners. It is important that he gives the proverbial finger to the fossil fuel industry which seeks to destroy and poison us all. Unfortunately, Joe is willing to sign onto the Willow project, however. I guess he is trying to even things out with jobs and future employment for Alaskans. I seriously don’t know if we will ever see gas as ancient history, but I sure wouldn’t mind it if it was.
A commenter on NPR the other day mentioned that Biden's other option (to cancel the Willow project) would have resulted in lawsuits that would be difficult for the government to defend. And that, because of demand for fossil fuels, by the time the project does get going, the likelihood of it still being financially feasible is at risk. There's a possibility we'll never see any of that oil reserve - it just won't be worth it. I worry more about the risk to the world's food supply - the war in Ukraine will continue to wreak havoc and the effect on world stability is much more disturbing. What China does or does not do in support of that war is of greater consequence.
Thank you for this post James citing the probable outcomes of the President's actions. I'm proud of what the President is achieving for us and for future generations.
As James and Heather (always!) make clear, CONTEXT is so important! And so lacking in most media news.
The world's food supply may well be an escalating issue for multiple reasons. The scariest is wrapped up in climate. How much Willow will or won't contribute the problem may well be peripheral to the overall shift in orientation and priorities that might spare us the worst blows a disrupted climate appears to be capable of delivering.
Willow will be making a very small contribution. I read elsewhere that it would release emissions equivalent to 2 million cars over its lifetime of 30 years. 2 million cars running for 30 years is the same as 60 million cars running for a year. 60 million cars is slightly less than one fifth of the US fleet. Cars cause 16% of US annual GH emissions. 60 million cars cause 3.3 percent of a year's emissions. That's not much.
And here's Heather Cox Richardson on Willow:
https://www.facebook.com/heathercoxrichardson/videos/1385246698990230 (starts at minute 38:29)
David, thank you for this link to HCR's Politics Chat. The whole 1+ hour was really informative (no surprise). I will return to it to listen again to the explanation of DeSantis / the Radical Right / liberal totalitarianism. Jane
You're most welcome Jane.
The world food supply is indeed in crisis as David Beasely stated (again) this time on PBS News Hour last night. Will the wealthy of this earth hear his call for aide?
No, they won't because they think their money will save them and they can never have enough. I am going to recommend on the basis of a review, America, by Poverty by Matthew Desmond which calls attention to how the rest of us, including liberals and progressives, contribute to the problem of poverty and the problems that creates.
Did a pause on this one, Michele. Very powerful analysis by Desmond. Thank you for sharing. My husband made a comment during the Pandemic that the Government could afford to give $1 million to every citizen. With a population of 330 million people, it would hardly make a dent in the nation's coffers if you think about it.
Here's an NPR report on and an abridged interview of Desmond. Very interesting. The picture at the top shows an "unhoused individual"; I think that means "homeless".
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/03/21/1164275807/poverty-by-america-matthew-desmond-inequality
Thank you... I listened to that interview yesterday; very powerful ideas about the income inequality we suffer from and how easy it would be to solve the problems of homelessness and food insecurity. Our whole capitalistic system needs a rethink.
Thank you for this link!
Thanks, J!
Yes, I haven't read it yet, but I was impressed by the review. I will be buying it next book order...which will be soon. Right now I am reading an interesting novel called the Seed Saver which is told from the point of view of some Native American women, I think in Minnesota.
Along the same lines, take a look at Braiding Sweetgrass: Indigenous Wisdom, Scientific Knowledge and the Teachings of Plants by Robin Wall Kimmerer. She's a member of the Citizen Potowami Nation and a botany professor at SUNY-College of Environmental Science and Forestry. She writes with grace, elegance, and wisdom. I've bought several copies to give to family and friends.
Small correction: Poverty, By America.
Oops, I was just up and reversed the title. Thanks for correcting that.
I heard the author on NPR a few days ago, or maybe yesterday. He was very interesting.
The review in itself caused me to think a little differently. I look forward to reading the book.
Thanks for the recommendation.
Many of the wealthiest, ie the fascist GOP, are eager to bring starvation to the masses. Their solution for leaving what’s left of our precious Earth for themselves. Why so many good people can’t see the evil hitting them in the face is because it’s hard to admit what any one of us are likely capable of under the right circumstances
They are certainly the party of greed and death to the rest of us.
Keep reminding everyone that food inflation is with us. That your backyard garden is your best food supply. Look up “victory gardens” from WWII. We can learn from there. Rationing and price controls of food should come soon.
I am old enough to sorta remember victory gardens. After that, we didn't have a garden. I learned gardening here in Oregon from various people and trial and error. It is nice enough today for me to be outside, but I can't plant radishes, spinach, potatoes, etc. as the cold returns tomorrow. We also try to support local famers and I seldom buy produce that has traveled a long ways. The Willamette Valley has been named one of the best places in the US to visit. Lots of wineries, good food, breweries, ciders, spirits, etc.
One of the first places I visited, back in the mid-'50s. We lived in Seattle, my parents had friends in the Willamette Valley, and I have nice, though faint memories of it.
It is beautiful and I have gardened here for about 50 years. I have mixed feelings about the recent designation.
12th of Never, I fear.
The lease for the Willow site has been held by ConocoPhillips since 1999.
The Willow site is not in ANWR.
While allowing the Willow project to be built, Biden also closed off the coastal areas from drilling.
It's amazing how much information is available and how little information people use to make judgments. Nothing is as simple as politicians and pundits make it seem. That is why I value Heather Cox Richardson's writings so highly; she tries to put the news cycle in context.
Thank you Mary Ellen for this elucidation. Much appreciated.
It is likely that projects like Willow cannot be built because roads and pipelines will not be able to be built on warming and heaving former permafrost. Same issue in Siberia.
Thank you, James. I read an article about that same reasoning behind the Biden Administration's approval of the Willow project.
While all the ramifications of climate change are sneaking up on us, the issue may have a challenge as top dog in a few years.
What we now need to keep an eye on is the sudden, explosive growth of artificial intelligence. An example of this Chat-GPT. Version 3.5 was released approximately two months ago. Over 100 000 000 people have used it. Now Version 4 is out and it blows 3.5 out of the water. An example: Version 4 scores 90% on the bar exam. 3.5 scored in the 10th percentile. Similar tests have been done comparing the two models with the same sort of result, but the point is this. AI is developing at a speed so exponential that scientists can scarcely comprehend its potential and are reducing expected growth timetables by years. It is considered by many scientists to be the most transformative invention in the history of humankind.
A Silicon Valley journalist for a dozen years noted in an interview with Ezra Klein that Chat 3.5, when tasked with producing an article in her style, wrote about as well as she did in Grade 6. Version 4 writes as well, in her style, as she did in university
The consequences are beyond frightening - nudging towards numbing. Within a few years AI “agents” will be able to do any work that can be presently done by a human. By “few years”, I am talking anywhere from 5 to 15. For many of us that may not be important. But think of the effect on our children and grandchildren when you hear or read of AI’s accomplishments. If AI can perform all the tasks that can be done at home by humans, how many humans are going to find themselves employed?
Within 20 years AI will be able to scientific research in minutes that mankind could only accomplish in a century. My son is into highly advanced research in Math/Computer Science. He’s in his early forties. Will he be obsolete in terms of the work he does before his career ends?
The ultimate challenge for AI technology is to be able to produce other AI technology. If that happens, human beings would then basically become an adjunct to Earth.
Of course there are still massive problems to work out. AI boys still have a frequent tendency to “hallucinate”, that is to produce output in response to a request that is complete gibberish. And at some point it’s progress May level off or even end for some reason that its creators cannot foresee.
All of this is happening *with no talk yet of regulation*. Once again, science is doing what science does - charging ahead at full throttle. But within that community many voices are calling out for regulation.
Donald Trump’s peregrinations mean very little in this context. Professor Richardson’s focus on the bigger story of XI-Putin may, in some medium term sense also be unimportant.
If interested, read Thomas Friedman’s “Our New Promethean Moment” in today’s NYT.
All of technology, even a digging stick or a the force a rock to crack shellfish or human heads, expends our power to do. The problem is that we can do all manner of things that cannot be undone, so we need to proceed with care. With great power comes great responsibility; it always has. As a kid in elementary school I saw the movie "Forbidden Planet" and revisited it as an adult. In retrospect the score was innovatively creepy, the dialog comic-book-ishly shallow, but the "be careful what you wish for" point it encompassed has haunted me throughout my life. Science just tells us how the Universe is put together, but application of that knowledge, especially in the form of technology, has dramatically changed the way we live. We seem like 6-year-olds at the controls of a nuclear reactor. We are excited by all the sirens and blinking light but we don't know (or don't sufficiently care) what the hell we are doing.
Many actual scientists, who are professionally concerned with recording reality, are far more alarmed by some of the use-of-technology social trends than the general public or their political leadership; as we witness in warnings of climate change, or antibiotic resistance, for example. IIRC Stephen Hawking was alarmed by the prospects of abusive or irresponsible uses of AI; and yet we mostly drift along with the current of plutocracy.
We certainly run the risk of of a police state beyond anything Orwell could have imagined, and a lot of stuff is Orwellian these days. We can also use technological power to serve human liberation, even environmental protection, but just hoping it turns out that way seems unlikely to make it so.
And tech execs in social media tightly restrict their own children’s use. Lovely.
I imagine drug pushers don't let their kids use opioids.
Although he came from humble beginnings, it was clear Philo T. Farnsworth was a man ahead of his time when he theorized the basic principles of electronic television at age 14. Farnsworth had an idealized vision of what the television would do. It would allow people to learn about each other and would settle world problems. He thought people could be educated from television as well as entertained through sports and cultural programs.
Farnsworth lived until 1971, and he saw television take a turn he hadn’t expected. People were not being educated through his invention nor had the world's problems been settled because of it. Today, many people watch television for dozens of hours each week. Farnsworth’s son said his father felt people wasted their lives by watching television, telling him, “There’s nothing worthwhile on it, and we’re not going to watch it in this household, and I don’t want it in your intellectual diet.” -
From https://www.allbusiness.com/regretted-inventions-21751-1.html
Had t thought of that one. :)
Here's a gifted link to Friedman's story. Scary. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/opinion/artificial-intelligence-chatgpt.html?
Far better to let environmental nonprofits to file suit against CP/Willow. Please support Earthjustice in their undertaking. https://earthjustice.org/press/2023/conservation-groups-sue-to-stop-the-willow-oil-project-in-alaskas-western-arctic
One of the organizations I've supported, and still do.
👏🏼👏🏼💯💯
The word in Alaska 20+ years ago was that any drilling project takes 20 years to get oil in a can or gas in an American tank (2023+20). Detroit, Tokyo, Korea, Wolfsburg, and Turin are all committed to be nearly completely eV or HV by 2027/.8.
What is Conoco Phillips planning to do with Willow Oil (if they even find a good pool?) in 2043??
How many of our gassers will still be on the road?
It’s going to take a very long time before every gas powered car is no longer on the road and as their number diminishes, their environmental impact will diminish as well, eventually becoming meaningless. We are going to need oil wells probably well into the next century for industry as well as transportation, the trick will be to make their use environmentally friendly and they are working on that today.
I plan on driving our 2007 non hybrid Toyota a maximum of 2500 miles a year until either it dies or I do, but I expect the new Alaskan oil source will never put a drop in my tank.
Paraphrasing : "Plastics. The answer is plastics." Echoes of "The Graduate" (1967). See Angela Benson's comment earlier in comments here, search on 'plastic'.
Westtreker, here’s a good piece from AlaskaBeacon that is relevant to your question:
“Energy transitions depend on changes in demand, not just supply. As an energy scholar, I believe advancing the affordability of electric vehicles and the infrastructure they need would do much more for reducing oil use than drilling bans. Though it may seem counterintuitive, by aiding European economic stability, U.S. exports of fossil fuels may also help the EU plan to accelerate noncarbon energy use in the years ahead”
https://alaskabeacon.com/2023/03/16/3-reasons-the-willow-arctic-oil-drilling-project-was-approved/
This was an interesting discussion on NPR today about pros & cons of the Willow project. https://the1a.org/segments/alaska-the-willow-project-and-the-future-of-fossil-fuels/
Yes, Marlene! So tired of hearing (it seems like) nothing but tRump, tRump, tRump!! Yes, HCR, he bears keeping an eye on, but jimminy christmas, falling all ourselves about what MIGHT happen should not rule out keeping focused on what IS happening, and most importantly, what we can do about what is happening. In WI, Democrats are laser focused on the election of Judge Janet on April 4.
Thank you, Dr. Richardson for drawing attention to international affairs of great interest to all the world including us. Also thank you for telling us about the National Monuments President Biden has added and reclaimed. I realize that ranchers in Nevada and Utah believe that public lands should be theirs to use and exploit as they see fit. Thank you President Biden for seeing they are preserved for future generations.
Waiting for the Bundy’s to blather from behind bars
Same here, Jeri.
IMHO, it's not just ranchers in Nevada that want those public lands. The federal government owns a lot of property in Nevada, and some political leaders believe that it stymies economic growth. Look at the sprawl that already exists around places like Reno. They're running out of developable land (not my opinion, but theirs).
And since the Western Shoshone never ceded Nevada to the United States, all of the land in the state is stolen.
Thinking of sprawl, is water an issue? I understand Los Angeles was built where the local water resources would support 200,000 people, not today’s almost 12.5 million.
With global heating should we be occupying more hot, dry real estate? I have read a suggestion that we need to build future cities closer to the poles to relocate climate refugees from coastal cities and other uninhabitable land.
I've never understood how all these southwestern cities are able to grow like crazy, given limited supplies of water. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the future.
The last time I was in downtown Reno....it needed updated! It almost looked like a ghost town compared to what it looked like in 2010.
The stark contrast between the professionalism of Biden's national security staff and the keystone cops that were in place under the last administration is remarkable. Thank you for the "long view", Dr. Richardson.
If you look at Putin's strategic options pre-2014 and considering that the Russian economy is smaller than Italy's, he had 3 basic choices:
1 Stand alone in the world as a nuclear armed but but second-level, independent nation supplying raw materials and energy to the world but without any real say in the workings of the world
2 Cozying up to Europe with the intention of becoming a significant member of the "peaceful" European community of Nations and help drive it to become the 3rd Block on the world stage, or
3 Imposing soviet nostalgia and trying aggressively to recreate the power that they feel they lost in 1990 and fing again their place in the world facing the US in a bi-lateral system as before.
As we know he chose the latter option but without significant preparation of the military, sufficient economic ressources to support a long offensive, real intelligence about Ukraine and with unrealistic political and military objectives.
Putin was facing 3 potential downsides should all not go well:
1 Losing the war and dwindling in importance in full view of the world,
2 Accepting American world-dominance and "converting" to liberalism, globalisation etc
3 Being forced to beg for help from China and thus becoming China's "sidekick" in Western Eurasia.
Well it is clear he chose strategy 3, things went badly and he ended up with downsides 1 & 3 without the possible benefits to the Russian people of the "downside" 2; the worst possible result and personal position for Putin. He is now the dependant offspring of the Chinese and he, personally is not actually necessary to the desired power surge of the Chinese. The Chinese will work with their favourite Russian Oligarch/politicians now to ensure a "clean", but sinophile succession. Putin will be "Gone, Baby, Gone"; with or without life and ill-gotten gains.
Great analysis Stuart.
Thank you. I would only offer that Putin DID try to do your number 3 (recreate the power of the Soviet era). However, his military was so rife with corruption that his effort failed, possibly without him realizing it.
Now, Putin is paying the price.
Mike, the outcome for the USA is not necessarily brillant as you have now to deal with a rising power in China. The chinese will now concentrate on treating Siberia as their own private cookie jar with investment and exclusive access to whatever is there. It is in the Chinese's interests to at least limit the damage to their interests caused by the Europeans' new-found solidarity; they prefer picking off their economic chickens individually. Hence you can expect lots of nice words allround as bit-by bit the chinese draw the the Russians back to the point where feathers start unruffling.
What can be done:
1 Arm Ukraine with more than enough ressources to enable them to push Russia out before China gains from any "peace" move and thus maintain European solidarity
2 Start talking to Europhile interests and powers within the Kremlin who won't be happy at the idea of taking their summer holidays in Beijing or with transfering their wealth from £ and $ to largely inconvertable Yuan
3 Start planning for the future with Europe to answer the question "What would Europe look like with an OPTION 2 Russia inside and what would be this new blocks outlook and role
4 Start talking to the Chinese to both improve relations and start talking of their basic interests with a view to rendering Chinese influence in the world more peacefull and less aggressive and egotistical......and that goes for American influence too.
Something has to be done to allow the world to spend a little less on armaments and a little more on people. Competing dogmas go far beyond the bounds of debate and drive the current vicious spiral serving only the emergence of opposing autocratic regimes that benefit from the threat of a fantasy foreign enemy to the detriment of the people who they are supposed to serve.
The military industrial complex will surely push back, and power-grabbers, both democratic and autocratic, always need an enemy to demonstrate their value to the people. (Look at the sad state of the republican party, having to pick "woke" and "trans" for enemies).
Amen to your take on the Republican choice of who and what to fear and despise. I read that one of the No Trans in Sports lawsuits was brought because of one twelve-year-old athlete. Scary kid, I guess, to inspire a lawsuit over fairness in middle school sports.
US & Europe tried to make a prosperous Western Democracy from the Best Coast (US West Coast) all the way to that sea from the edge of which one can see Sarah's front porch. Things seemed to be developing well. I almost took an Alaska Air flight to Siberia just 'because'.
But, Vladimir and his Thugocracy friends did not understand Econ 101.
Tragic Waste of a mostly Educated Chess-knowledgeable population...
Nice analysis, Stuart. Putin has made his bed and will have to lie in it. But what are we going to do? Can you lay it out in a neat 1, 2, 3 format? The variables are many, with or without Putin.
Good perspective…I wish all of our representatives and their leaders could forget the petty crap and focus the extinction-level problems facing us righ now, Like nuclear ww 3, the next pandemic, and near certain climate apocalypse. Then we might see humans alive in 150 years to read and marvel at Heather Cox Richardson’s depth and wisdom.
Oh, but transgendered people in high school sports and Hunter Biden and Hillary's emails <eye roll>. Seriously, it's all a distraction from the really important issues, like climate change, that Republicans refuse to address (let alone acknowledge).
Ellen, I agree with your statement totally, but may I offer one correction. Please use "transgender" as an adjective...as in transgender men, transgender women, trangender athletes or transgender people. It's the respectful way to refer to this oppressed community of people. Please don't be offended but I was recently gently schooled on this by an activist who is also a member of the community and happens to be a family member. Thanks!
I agree with your correction and I'm not offended at all. I was really echoing the words that other people use... but I edited it.
Thanks for responding. There’s a heck of a lot of misunderstanding out there!
The problem is not the people who are getting rich by scaring and infuriating our neighbors. The problem is that so many around us have defective bullshit detectors! They are good enough to sniff out and avoid a bad used truck deal! But when they hear a preposterous conspiracy myth about election fraud, socialism or horrible affronts to suffering white christians ? That bullshit they’ll swallow whole!
We watched the documentary about Dr. Fauci. I was naive about what people have been led to think about him. Public health used to be non-controversial. But Rand Paul, Marge, Gym Jordan, etc., have championed the cause of Freedom, against the dreaded enemy Public Health. Why listen to experts? What do they know that you don’t?
The U.S. Public Health Service ran the Tuskegee study ran from 1932 to 1972; eugenics studies led to thousands of people being forcibly sterilized between 1907 and 1963; public health has often been used as an excuse to pass immigration limits for non-white people; I can't agree that Public Health used to be non-controversial.
Point taken. I was thinking of when the polio vaccine arrived to the immense relief of my parents and most all since then. Maybe what was not controversial was the idea that we could and should take individual actions to protect the health of others, not just ourselves.
Interesting that we can remember "everyone" lining up for the sugar cube to prevent polio in the early 50s but by 2020 thousands didn't trust the Covid vaccine.
Our denial of science may kill us faster than any other factor. The embrace of science got us where we are, now there is nostalgia for medieval thinking (Greene, et al.) The CDC report along with the Fauci documentary would have been unthinkable before Trump.
The great advantage of the United States today is American women.
And they need to get religion out of the equation and equal rights into the equation. The fight is for ALL women, not just some. Women need to be more vocal about their rights as citizens!
But let's not forget that the R's are trying to put women back in the home barefoot and pregnant (side comment-what will they want to do to we post menopause women since we can't have children?)
It is more than just about economics and military alliances, Xi and Putin's alliance covers an enormous fraction of the earth's landmass--much of which is critical to controlling climate change--especially due to the danger of permafrost in Siberia warming and liberating massive amounts of greenhouse gases. With the news that the critical deadline for major global warming mitigation has moved up to the mid 2030's the danger has increased substantially. Russia is going to be the wild card controlling global warming and it is in the hands of an autocratic madman.
https://hir.harvard.edu/climate-change-and-siberia-no-time-for-continued-climate-inaction/
100%. The tipping point for climate rests a lot in the Siberian tundra. When the tundra thaws out, a 100 million year reservoir of CO2 will be released into the atmosphere. And there is no way to put it back. The amount of CO2 locked in the frozen tundra isn’t hard to measure, it’s easy for scientists to estimate by sampling. The amount released will be permanent and catastrophic. CO2 is not just a warming and ocean level issue. CO2 levels in the air will also find equilibrium like all gasses do with surface water. In the water, CO2 converts to Carbonic acid and lowers the ph of the water. How will phytoplankton survive in an acidic environment? Phytoplankton isn’t just the beginning of the Ocean’s food chain, it is also responsible for the majority of O2 production on planet Earth. Hie will the ocean ecosystem respond to such pressure? Which crisis will we face first? Dwindling fisheries and food shortages? Unbearable heat and no winters, lack of snow to replenish reservoirs? fresh water shortages? unpredictable super storms, cyclones, tornados, massive flooding and landslides? displacing 100’s of millions globally. Or slowly suffocating on a changed atmosphere no longer able to regenerate itself?
On the issue of climate, perhaps a little humility and curiosity would do us all some good. Or just continue with the status quo, enriching the dictators and Authoritarian kleptocrat repressive & corrupt regimes abroad?
Which people will be displaced first and what will the repercussions be? Will America and Europe be able to absorb so many displaced climate refugees? How will leaders manage the largest migration of humans in history ...during food shortages/famines during their own climate catastrophes? Countries that control the food and energy supply control a lot of our world. Ukraine remains a critical country in all of the above.
The vast majority of climate refugees are going to be people of color. Look at the racist immigration policies growing more stringent in Europe and the US. The question is not if Europe and America are able to accpet so many climate refugees it is whether they are willing to do so. How many are already drowning trying to cross the Mediterrian and dying of thirst on our own southern border?
There is only one solution that is humane and equitable and that is to allow in more climate refugees and to pay reparations to mitigate the effects in poorer countries so that people do not have to be displaced. What these racist governments have to understand is that the problem can't be solved with armed conflict to preserve borders. The population pressures will simply be too great and the financial cost of "border protection" will be become overwhelming. It will be far less expensive to accept the refugees and provide jobs and training to integrate them into and grow our economy than it is to expand a military capable of fighting them off. The US, Japan and Europe have to wake up to the fact that demographics are not in their favor and that the most developed nations bear the responsibility for the climate crisis.
100%!
And remember how Putin started carpet bombing Syrian cities right after Merkel said Germany would take 1/2 million more refugees a year. He supplied them to all of Europe by flattening their homes and entire cities. And at the same time donated cash to all the conservative political parties in Europe ( and the US through dark PACS and NRA). Then followed up with a massive social media campaign of propaganda, miss and disinformation, labeling all immigrants as thieves and rapists. Those conservative politicians returned the loans and donations (bribles really) by ratcheting up anti immigrant rhetoric, riling up their bases for votes. Like throwing gas on a fire that Putin created. With climate change, this will only get much much worse. And who gains from all this displacement and human suffering?
"The Republican Party has tied itself to [Trump] so completely it is now .... calling for the investigation or even the arrest of those handling Trump’s many lawsuits.... . Right now ...neither the legal nor the political momentum is in [Trump's] favor. " If these two statements are correct, the 2024 implications for Democrats are pretty good.
It is my understanding that Congress does not have any legal standing to investigate the courts in NY. This is the loudmouth, attention grabbing histrionics that feed their base. What is so frustrating is how blindly the MAGA faithful cleave to this false alarm and narrative. It remains a dangerous effort to undermine democracy.
Yes. It's ironic that they both want to advance states' rights over federalism, and then they make a point of trying to interfere in a state's functioning because they don't like it.
So hypocritical!
You are right about Congress's having NO authority to investigate ANY state court. In fact, Glenn Kirschner has suggested that this attempt by Jordan and friends to interfere with an ongoing prosecution could be investigated as obstruction of justice. I would LOVE to see that, but Manhattan DA Bragg will most likely just file it away and ignore it.
De Santis is a dangerous enemy of democracy lurking down there in Florida-I hope the long term thinkers in the DNC and others are considering how to keep him far from the national stage.
The DNC just plain needs to not abandon Florida, like they have in the past few election cycles. There are good folks in Florida, fighting the good fight, they just need some extra help... kinda like Ukraine.
I keep wondering about all the retired folks in Florida who moved from blue states and cities. Why are they as a group not speaking out against DeSantis. I'm pretty sure the majority of those retirees moved there for the weather not the politics.
Most may have kept their Registration 'Up North'.
The 1000s of FL Snakes big enough to swallow DeathSantis gives all of us Hope....
I am seeing fissures in the "GOP"'s wall, there to be made use of.
Just when so many were expecting the top story to be Trump's indictment, you have the courage to point out that the top story was not our domestic one, but rather the international story involving Russia and China. As I was reading your letter all I could think of was Rick Blaine standing on a fog shrouded tarmac telling Ilsa Lund ". . . it doesn't take much to see that the problems of three little people don't amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world. Someday you'll understand that. Now, now. Here's looking at you, kid."
If justice prevails, Trump and his minions will be dealt with appropriately. We just have to remember that there are other crises in the world -- Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the "mortgaging" of the Kremlin to Beijing, for example -- that exist and require our awareness and attention.
Thumbs up on your comment.
Thank you Heather.
Don't for a second think that Trump's presence has faded.
Look at how many people, both Democrats and Republicans cling to his words.
That my friends, should unsettle you.
Be safe. Be well.
His days are numbered. I predict he will not be the GOP candidate for President EVER again. He is fighting legal battles on 3 or 4 fronts at one time. His "team" is not that talented. Fox has it's own issues. He is an "icon" in decline in every possible way. Custer was able to get out of trouble in his career until he couldn't. He ended up swamped in a situation of his own making....and those working against him came together in a way they never had before. That's DJT's reality right now. Just watch. Long live the memories of Crazy Horse & Sitting Bull.
Custer! Good example of clueless arrogance drunk on publicity!
George was the best. It blows my mind when I'm at a re-enactment and see 3 guys pretending to be Custer. That's just weird. What's to love about the preening fool ? I don't think any other US Army officer ever lost his entire organization in one battle.
Mike but the reality is, he has grifted for 76 years and not spent a day in jail. The House that was so graciously handed to the GOP, are working steadily to dismantle the Manhattan DA's case. I don't know if the case is that strong to indict. Low hanging fruit cases often dissolve before brought forward.
By the time any other substantial case is brought to indictment level, time will have run out. He is already enjoying an ass kicking lead over DeSantis or even Biden in every poll I have seen. Pushing the envelope further, will emboldened him that much more.
There are several other cases in the works. He's surrounded and time runs out for these guys historically. I choose to be more optimistic than you given the evidence I see here and elsewhere. I will bet any amount of $$ you like that he will NEVER be President again.
Hoping to live so long as never to hear his name again, or see his putrid face, or even be aware of the country’s traitors. Maybe government in the background just set the stage for this nightmare, but I loved focusing on my issues, not the existential threat to my country and earth’s existence.
Actually his name will be remembered...but not the way he wanted. He will eclipse Nixon, Buchanan & Johnson as the worst by a wide margin. He'll become the textbook example of "don't do that...it doesn't work".
Not just "it doesn't work," but "it is the most despicable and traitorous act an American has ever committed. Even worse than Benedict Arnold."
true
Mike Historians in a C-Span poll already place Trump at the bottom of the presidential heap. He does have several 1sts:
+ first president to be thrice married;
+first president to be twice impeached; and
+first president to be criminally indicted.
The last poll I saw had him in the bottom 4, but not totally at the bottom of the deep blue sea. He will be remembered...for awhile. How many people can name the Presidents on either side of Lincoln ?
Mike Bachelor James Buchanan, who had a gay buddy and Andrew Johnson, who was a dismal political choice for a ‘Union’ ticket when it looked like Lincoln wouldn’t be re-elected (before the taking of Atlanta)
T💩p should flee the country so we can see his face on an FBI Most Wanted poster at the post office.
I'd prefer to never see his face again or hear his name. It has a very negative effect on my digestive system.
....and my sleep! Never in my long life have I had trouble sleeping before 2015-16...waking up worrying about what Trump and MAGAs are doing to lead the blind citizens down the wrong path.
Jeri, I hear you. At 64 and at a downsizing time in my life, I want to make a slow turn away from what is blasting on the television and my smartphone to a simpler life that I have control of what happens next. I need to have the solace in plotting my garden. Not Donald Trumps next revenge.
Which comes first—the blather or the headlines? Democrats know they cannot ignore the blather any more when Republican’ts say the most outlandish things in support of the manbaby. As some readers said today, the difference between the 45 revolving door officials like Secretary of State (how many in 4 years?) and Biden’s choices is so impressive.
So true. DJT was clueless about being an elected President. He's used to being the titular head of HIS empire(s). He is the most broken example of a human being out on the world stage today. Becoming President is the worst thing he could have ever done to himself. Sure he got the attention he craved and needs for awhile. But the end game ain't pretty in any way. The sharks are circling...fins on the Left, Fins on the Right...Jimmy Buffet could have some fun with this one...and then throw in Volcano as the encore. "Where you gonna go when the volcano blow ????"
Don't want to land in no Panama City
Don't want to land in no Tampa Bay
Don't want to land in no Mar-a-Lardo
I got nothin' more to say
Would he like to land in Moscow ?
I tapped out my 1/2 cup of inspiration on the first one; gonna have to listen to "Volcano" again and see if I can engineer a verse for Moscow. And drink more cofee.
Siberia could be fun
Unfortunately, trump's run for and occupation of the WH and his continued blathering presence in the news cycle is the worst possible political outcome that could have ever happened to all of us. He is a two-bit (albeit dangerous) cult figure that is as much of a whack job as any of the worst-of-the worst dictators in history.
" Becoming President is the worst thing he could have ever done to himself."
You are delusional. Dictator?
Who is using the FBI against its citizens? Who added 88000 IRS agents to go after its citizens? Who is trying to roll back gun rights? Police are language? Censor our speech?
Yes you are right. Joe Biden.
Your post is leftist projection.
Xi and Putin are brothers in genocide, Xi against the Uyghurs, Putin against the Ukrainians. Those countries failing to condemn these murderers, as India fails to do, also wage war against their own citizens. Republicans have adopted this war on their on citizens strategy with their dog whistling Anti-Semitism call of Soros, Soros Soros. Demonizing minorities is on the first page of the authoritarian handbook. Turning them against each other as Russian active measures did in the 2016 attempt to incite African American anger at Jews is one variation.
Soros is the whipping boy that never fails to get repubs the response that makes the cult nuts salivate. There are so many Republican billionaire traitors that it would take volumes to expose them all. Of course, the Soros crap has been calculated for how many decades? I remember from when I was young….long, long ago…
But, Jeri you are a 2023 Jedi. :)
James,
Perhaps we should say this>
Xi and Putin and Bush are brothers in genocide, Bush against the (innocent) Muslims in Afghanistan and Iraq, Xi against the Uyghurs (in emulation of Bush), and Putin against the Ukrainians (again, in emulation of Bush).
Role modeling does matter. Others will follow.
Bush was also a role model in the long line of Republican thieves of elections. Al Gore actually won the 2000 election. Once all the votes were actually counted. Another victory in perfidy for our corrupted Supreme Court. 😡
Mike, the difference is that W left office and took up oil painting and what-not, and right now we have an administration lead by smarter and more ethical people, don’t we? Whereas Russia’s brief experiment with elections has resulted in Putin’s grasping power and clinging to it like a orphaned baby monkey clings to the towel covered wire doll, lost and alone. Xi is another story, looking out from the long view of the world’s oldest sophisticated culture and most populous nation on earth. I wonder what calculations his people are making about climate change? Guess I should see what there is published about this man.
deep
Here is what I found to answer my own question. What should we make of this?
By 2030, China aims to decrease its carbon intensity by over 65 % from the 2005 level, and to reach over 1 200 GW installed wind and solar power. The share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption should reach 25 % by 2030. China's forest stock should be 6 billion cubic metres above the 2005 level by 2030.Oct 16, 2022
https://www.europarl.europa.eu › E...
China's climate change policies - European Parliament
I looked up info on Soros' donations yesterday because I had mostly heard only the Republican crap about him re socialism and find that I heartily approve of what he supports (no surprise). Especially all he gives to America Votes.
Xi has been murdering Tibetans since he invaded Tibet in 1950. It is estimated 1.5 million Tibetans have died at China's hands. Now the Chinese are harvesting the Tibetans' DNA.
"Now the Chinese are harvesting the Tibetans' DNA." For what purpose?
When I think of the perspective from 2200, I can only think of two questions. Did we find a way to stop the overheating of the planet, and did we find a way to avoid WW3?
This is the turning point...
I found this interesting: See Sam Greene's comments on Heather's front page. "If you're looking for the TL;DR on Xi's visit with Putin, it is this: China's domination of Russia is complete." Followed by a pretty full summary of their discussion.
Thank you Heather, for writing about the Russia/China “alliance”, Japan’s support of Ukraine & Biden’s designation of park lands. Oil drilling too. Your mention of Trump is certainly important but , egads, he takes up so much oxygen and I do not like being drawn into that vortex, which is so easy to do.
There are two loci, for me, where news and information is most important: locally, because what happens locally affects everything nationally on a much greater scale than the other way around, and the Rest of the World--about which we in the USA hear far too little--because ignorance of what is happening outside the USA means a total lack of understanding (and empathy) for the challenges and traumas that drive the rest of the human race who don't live in the USA. The Ukraine war has placed Eastern Europe in the sights of Americans but I bet that most cannot identify it on a map or explain why it is important. The coverage of the "anniversary" of the US invasion of Iraq has been infuriating me because of all the moaning about American deaths and almost no discussion of the--possibly as many as a million--Iraqi deaths and the complete and utter destruction of the infrastructure of a formerly prosperous and functioning country. I sympathize with American families that mourn the loss of their loved ones, but when the difference in pain and harm is at this order of magnitude, it's time to grow up. Americans need more information about what is happening in front of their noses AND on the other side of the world. Both are of historical interest, especially if one is a "longue durée" historian like myself. Medievalists are focusing more and more on the ways in which the activities and experiences of people on the local level affected the shaping of events and experiences on a broader scale. And we are coming up with radically different analyses and conclusions as a result: ones that are no longer adopting the 19th-century imperialist assumptions that drove the writing of history until very recently. We in the USA maintain our intellectual isolationism at our peril.
I am interested in the change in focus that Medievalists are taking on in examining from micro to macro, rather than the other way around. I think that must be an interesting perspective shift.
Americans are so incredibly blind to world history (and I put myself into that category) that it is cause for embarrassment. As nations go, we are toddlers, and have that "me me me all the time me me me" toddler world view. The only way America ended up as a world power at such an early age was the advantages taken by the genocide of the Indigenous Peoples of this land and on the enslavement of Black Africans kidnapped and brought to this country.
Regarding the GWOT (encompassing Afghanistan and Iraq) and the "anniversary" of the invasion of Iraq... we Americans do like our "milestone" anniversaries. The fact that our invasion of Iraq was based on greed/revenge and not on any real geopolitical "need" never enters the equation any more than the deaths of the Iraqis (civilian and military) ever does. I am not of an age where I had either friends or family members in the service who died in either Vietnam or GWOT (I am a "tweener" of those to debacles myself, and had no children who would have been in line for GWOT). I can appreciate that our combat fallen are honored for defending freedom because to speak the truth of the matter would be devastating to those families. The lack of acknowledgment of the civilian deaths we caused is a stain upon our nation.
I'm with you, Ally. I have known people who served in Vietnam (or avoided serving) and have had many students and a couple very dear friends who were veterans of the latest US wars of aggression that were presented as "defensive" but patently were not. They're a mess, to be honest: all of them suffer from some level of PTSD. And those who were there are only too aware of the chaos and destruction they were told to wreak. Even when their remit was to rebuild and renew.
As for the medieval push toward embracing the idea of the personal being political, those of us in the historical community who do archival research, especially in local or regional rather than national/central archives (although with medieval sources, the local stuff often winds up in the national institutions) with the goal to be more inclusive in our subjects have always demonstrated that the individual's actions had larger repercussions, even when the individual wasn't a king or a male magnate. All of my books have been focused on this as a project. Perhaps the most accessible way of encountering the issue is a recent essay collection (and yes: I'm one of the authors!), Medieval Elite Women and the Exercise of Power, 1100-1400: Moving Beyond the Exceptionalist Debate, ed. Heather Tanner (Palgrave Macmillan, 2019). It's stupid expensive--all P-M books tend to be--but it's in a fair number of library collections.
Thanks for the suggestion. I'm going to see if I can find it.
Because of my "tweener"ness, I have worked with both Vietnam and GWOT Veterans, as well as dealt with many of them on a professional level. I have a dear friend whose son was an Iraqi Vet, discharged from the Army following an awful year of combat where he was the only survivor in two separate engagements where his entire platoon was wiped out. He never got the help he so desperately needed and sought, and killed himself in a DUII crash less than 2 years after his discharge. Our medical and psychological treatment of Veterans remains severely inadequate.
There was an excellent editorial in the newspaper yesterday, by Trudy Rubin (from the Philadelphia Inquirer) that effectively explains WHY supporting Ukraine is important. People who complain that we shouldn't be spending American resources to help Ukraine should be encouraged to read it. Those people are either too young to remember or they slept through history class.
Found it. She's syndicated. https://jewishworldreview.com/0323/rubin032223.php3