Awesome post. The Pax Americana is built upon our soft and hard power, NATO, and mutual assured destruction. It is unthinkable that Trump and his ilk would undermine the crucial pillar of NATO. Liberal democracies must have each others’ backs. But according to the NYT article today:
“As NATO leaders gathered in Washington this week, one American president hailed the 75-year defensive alliance as the greatest “in the history of the world.”
Another described it as a virtual protection racket and declared that he would abandon “delinquent” members to the mercies of Russian invaders.”
Reported this morning, Russia has been planning assignations plots against European defense industry execs, supply chains, factories, and warehouses. Didn't take Putin "like about 2 minutes" to figure out what tfg meant.
Yeah, Right after he (Orban) just had a meeting with Putin and Zi. Zi is supplying Russia with the high tech components and new Chinese attack drones. Perphaps giving how much of our manufacturing jobs and technology to China wasn't such a good idea after all?
Orban is clearly up to no good in meeting with Trump. Biden needs to deport him and all his associates immediately, and not allow any of them back into the U.S. except for an official meeting with Biden. He also needs to refer the meeting to the FBI to consider the possibility of launching a trial for treason against Trump.
I hereby call on Joe Biden to withdraw from the U.S. Presidential race immediately, for the good of his party, his country, and the entire world. Quite simply, his age and mental condition have become serious distractions in an election that should be the Democrats' to lose. For a week or so after Biden's awful debate performance, I thought those issues would go away. They have not; in fact, they are stronger than ever. And understandably so, as they are the only issues Donald Trump has, given his abominable record as President (including a million COVID deaths), multiple criminal convictions, sexual assault conviction, lack of knowledge in economics, foreign affairs, and history, and clear mental derangement. Take Biden out of the race and replace him with a candidate of reasonable age--almost any candidate under 65 who is a decent speaker--and we should be looking at a massive Democratic victory, perhaps even a landslide. Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro--any of those people could and would make mincemeat of Trump. To repeat: without Biden and his age as issues, Trump has no issues to run on. He might even be forced to withdraw from the race himself, which would be much the best thing for everyone. But if he were to stay in against someone like Whitmer or Harris, he would take a horrible drubbing, and Democrats would almost certainly win the major down-ballot races as well. Joe, please do the right thing, the courageous thing, the sensible thing, and call it a career after 48 years in Washington. You have done your bit and then some.
What finally convinced me to call publicly for Biden's withdrawal from the race was George Clooney's call to the same effect, issued earlier this week. Clooney is not a politician and has no axe to grind. And he recently hosted a fund-raiser for Biden. So I am sure his call for Biden to step down was not issued lightly. His example would likely be followed by other progressive (and rich) celebrities, leading the flow of money to dry up. Given in particular the media's obsessive focus on Biden's age and condition, it is increasingly clear that he cannot win. . .and indeed he should not be in the race at all. The Presidency is not a job for someone who would be 86 at the end of his term--an age only about 15% of previous U.S. presidents have ever even reached.
Maybe! It is next to impossible to switch horses mid-steam. Usually, one ends up wet and not making it to other side. Party leadership failed in their due diligence. Yes, he is too old and he was 4 years ago but look at the job has done. Fantastic! Then on other side we have the very old republican felon and we all know he is certifiable. This is all so very scary, so let's be careful what we wish for.
Jon, Thanks for the catch. We old folks hate to admit our equipment is failing us but, alas it is. I have the AI read to me but i put the mic away someplace and I know not where. I guess I will get another so I can dictate my words. I just might make fewer errors.
Just curious. If he were to withdraw, how do you select someone? Who picks? And how?
And what grounds do you have for not choosing VP Harris -- and who do you offend if you don't? Are you SURE none of the other candidates have time bomb issues in their past that would cripple them? (Thinking of Kimba Wood, Jon Edwards, Tom Eagleton, Brett Kavanaugh . . .). Biden has been battle tested. And as Clooney pointed out, it would be messy. But how do you pick someone without it turning into a typical Democratic mess (i.e. "I can't support Bernie Sanders because he voted with the NRA on gun legislation," etc.) And could they stand up to Trump, who wiped out an entire generation of Republican presidential contenders with his sharp tongue, as well as the MAGA media? Just wondering whether the ensuing mess be worse than the Biden we have?
I do mention Harris twice in the comment, and she is the most logical choice even though I personally would prefer Whitmer. Harris has been battle-tested, too. I think she has a better chance of standing up to Trump than Biden would. If Biden were to die before the Dem. convention, Harris would be the heir apparent to the nomination, and she is automatically eligible for any funds raised for Biden to this point. If Biden were to withdraw, the candidate would be picked at the convention. It might be a more interesting and even useful convention than it would otherwise. The fact that Biden has, actuarially, about a 50% chance of dying before the end of what would be his next term, plus an additional chance of severe impairment short of death, outweighs all other considerations at this point. The age issue must be put to rest, and the only way to do this is for Biden to withdraw. You don't think it would be messy to leave Biden in? Ideologically the Democrats are pretty much united these days, around their mutual loathing of Trump if nothing else, and support for Ukraine and opposition to Putin. So I am not worried about the kind of ideological issues that might have arisen in the past (say 1968 or 1980).
Well that certainly simplifies the discussion. If you think Harris would have a better shot at beating Trump then Biden would, then I guess I understand. But what do you base that on? Hopefully not the hysterical media coverage. And note that everyone (I trust you included) who opposes Biden staying in the race says that they would vote for him -- although they are afraid no one else will. Meanwhile. the attacks have already started for the benefit of his base -- Trump has said the VP is an idiot and was chosen for the color of her skin and being a woman. He called her the "DEI candidate." Meanwhile, what evidence do you have that she can execute the responsibilities ahead of her -- such as close the border (the border has been her assignment as VP -- and it's the hot button issue for Trump followers...) Plus, note that currently you get Harris with Biden -- if he can't serve out the term, she becomes president.
Bill, as I said in my comment, I think almost ANYONE has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden does, now, because of the age issue. Harris makes the job easier; there is a sort of natural succession at work if she is chosen (including the all-important transfer of funds). Although Harris is not my preferred candidate, I think that under the pressure of trying to beat Trump, she would grow into the job. She did really well against Biden in the first primary campaign debate, and I'm sure she would do even better against Trump. Being attacked by him is a badge of honour, and his racism and sexism certainly wouldn't help him in the general election campaign.
I have said for two years that Biden should not run again. I pay little if any attention to the media coverage, for the most part. My own analysis shows that only 15% of Presidents have lived to the age he would be at the end of his next term--not very good odds. He is the first person ever to serve at the age of 80 or older and the first ever elected past age 70. So we are in sort of uncharted territory here. Nothing is ever 100%, of course, but Harris is a lot younger and a lot smarter than Trump, and has Biden's strong record to run on. I would much rather run on that record, with economic improvement and support for Ukraine and NATO, than run on the Republican Project 2025 platform, with support for Putin and Orban, deportation of 11 million immigrants (which would make orange juice and salads cost three times as much), military training in public schools, and abolition of the Education Department. That along with Trump's terrible record is not much to run on, to put it very mildly. The contrast between the two agendas is stark. Any half-way intelligent candidate should be able to make the case for the Democratic agenda pretty easily, absent the age issue.
Finally, just to be clear, as I have said more times than I care to enumerate: I will vote for whomever the Democrats nominate, so long as it is not some outright kook like RFK Jr. or Lyndon Larouche.
I have asked twice and not gotten an answer (sorry to be persistent, I was trained as a journalist) to my question about on what basis do you say anyone would have an easier time beating Trump than Biden. Your evidence: you think so, and that you have said so for years. Got it. You answered my question. Have a good day.
I now have more evidence than I had earlier in the day.
For one thing, James Carville, one of the top political strategists of the past half century and a major architect of Bill Clinton's wins, agrees with me totally. So does David Axelrod, a key advisor to Barack Obama. So it is not just this one guy pecking away on his computer in Canada.
For another thing, Biden is, according to the polls, far behind where he was four years ago at the same point in the election cycle. Four years ago at this stage, he led Trump by 10 points; now he trails him by 6 points. The overall Democratic trend is not that bad. . .the party has not taken a drop of 16 points in races for the House and Senate. So the reason for the drop has to be Biden himself, and presumably if he were replaced, the drop would be reduced or would even go away altogether.
Other polls show Biden trailing in states where down-ballot candidates are leading. One such state is Wisconsin, where Biden trails by several points but incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin leads by several points. And it is evidently the same in Colorado, Ohio, Montana, and a couple more states beyond that. If Biden is trailing at a time when the overall trend appears to be Democratic, then, once again, the problem is with him, and replacing him would likely fix the problem. James Carville said that if Biden were replaced, he thought the Democrats could win 54% in the Presidential election. Right now, the party is polling closer to 44%. Again, it is all on Biden.
Other potential candidates are not 80+ years old, do not have cognitive issues, and have not performed as badly in debates as Biden did. For what it's worth, I myself am 79 and see my own cognitive faculties as starting to decline, just over the last year or so. Given what I do with my life, it doesn't make all that much difference, but if I wished to be in public life--which I absolutely do not--it would be important. I myself would not run for Library Board or City Council at my age, let alone the Presidency.
Iron clad evidence is impossible to come by in a case like this, where we are working in uncharted territory as there has never before been a President over 80, and certainly not one who would be 86 by the end of his term, an age that only 7 previous Presidents have reached. But the fact that Biden is running so far behind his previous performance, and behind down-ballot candidates from his own party in key battleground states, should send up all kinds of red flags. Overall this appears to be a good Democratic year, with an economy that is performing well and an exceptionally unpopular Republican candidate who also happens to be a criminal, a rapist, and demented. It speaks volumes that Biden is not winning by 10 points or more.
Cognitive decline is absolutely to be expected in one of Biden's age. It follows that almost anyone not of an age to have experienced cognitive decline should do better in the race.
I hope this satisfies you. I can think of four candidates who would all do well: Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and Kamala Harris. Newsom has said he won't run, so that rules him out. And Shapiro is a new governor, so one might opt for someone with more experience. This leaves Whitmer and Harris. As I have said elsewhere, I would prefer Whitmer, but Harris would make for an easier switch. For one thing, she would automatically be entitled to the campaign funds currently accumulated. For another, she has run a national campaign before and thus would be better prepared.
Aside from Harris' advantages, I don't think it much matters who the Democrats pick so long as it is a reasonable candidate who can speak well and is, preferably, under age 65. Frankly, it is hard for me to imagine how any qualified candidate could do worse than Biden at this point.
Awesome post. The Pax Americana is built upon our soft and hard power, NATO, and mutual assured destruction. It is unthinkable that Trump and his ilk would undermine the crucial pillar of NATO. Liberal democracies must have each others’ backs. But according to the NYT article today:
“As NATO leaders gathered in Washington this week, one American president hailed the 75-year defensive alliance as the greatest “in the history of the world.”
Another described it as a virtual protection racket and declared that he would abandon “delinquent” members to the mercies of Russian invaders.”
Enlightened power vs. grisly cowardice.
TFG to Putin, " Do what ever the hell you want"
Reported this morning, Russia has been planning assignations plots against European defense industry execs, supply chains, factories, and warehouses. Didn't take Putin "like about 2 minutes" to figure out what tfg meant.
Without NATO, who protects Hungry and Orban?
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/exclusive-us-germany-foiled-russian-151424033.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJjGI_d2sr_hEYibRBZx4gX-eiAZjqEKddIEIr_DNFGhtpkC9ElWgGiul78Y4o0Jichk6qKNrUWidYVj1ooZmHRJ7AlltCVGZMZpsaBpdHIYrfTHqO00h-94sT3E41QsKNQ-7DFJ7-_5Fhqm_t1w8kDjkbKsYFP2HOBZqcyrmYtG
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/us-and-germany-foiled-russian-plot-to-kill-rheinmetall-ceo
I see now that Trump is meeting with Orban in Florida today. I would like to know why this fascist dictator was even allowed to enter the country.
Yeah, Right after he (Orban) just had a meeting with Putin and Zi. Zi is supplying Russia with the high tech components and new Chinese attack drones. Perphaps giving how much of our manufacturing jobs and technology to China wasn't such a good idea after all?
Orban is clearly up to no good in meeting with Trump. Biden needs to deport him and all his associates immediately, and not allow any of them back into the U.S. except for an official meeting with Biden. He also needs to refer the meeting to the FBI to consider the possibility of launching a trial for treason against Trump.
I like what ur saying. A lot!
I hereby call on Joe Biden to withdraw from the U.S. Presidential race immediately, for the good of his party, his country, and the entire world. Quite simply, his age and mental condition have become serious distractions in an election that should be the Democrats' to lose. For a week or so after Biden's awful debate performance, I thought those issues would go away. They have not; in fact, they are stronger than ever. And understandably so, as they are the only issues Donald Trump has, given his abominable record as President (including a million COVID deaths), multiple criminal convictions, sexual assault conviction, lack of knowledge in economics, foreign affairs, and history, and clear mental derangement. Take Biden out of the race and replace him with a candidate of reasonable age--almost any candidate under 65 who is a decent speaker--and we should be looking at a massive Democratic victory, perhaps even a landslide. Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro--any of those people could and would make mincemeat of Trump. To repeat: without Biden and his age as issues, Trump has no issues to run on. He might even be forced to withdraw from the race himself, which would be much the best thing for everyone. But if he were to stay in against someone like Whitmer or Harris, he would take a horrible drubbing, and Democrats would almost certainly win the major down-ballot races as well. Joe, please do the right thing, the courageous thing, the sensible thing, and call it a career after 48 years in Washington. You have done your bit and then some.
What finally convinced me to call publicly for Biden's withdrawal from the race was George Clooney's call to the same effect, issued earlier this week. Clooney is not a politician and has no axe to grind. And he recently hosted a fund-raiser for Biden. So I am sure his call for Biden to step down was not issued lightly. His example would likely be followed by other progressive (and rich) celebrities, leading the flow of money to dry up. Given in particular the media's obsessive focus on Biden's age and condition, it is increasingly clear that he cannot win. . .and indeed he should not be in the race at all. The Presidency is not a job for someone who would be 86 at the end of his term--an age only about 15% of previous U.S. presidents have ever even reached.
ENOUGH, ALREADY!
Maybe! It is next to impossible to switch horses mid-steam. Usually, one ends up wet and not making it to other side. Party leadership failed in their due diligence. Yes, he is too old and he was 4 years ago but look at the job has done. Fantastic! Then on other side we have the very old republican felon and we all know he is certifiable. This is all so very scary, so let's be careful what we wish for.
I think you mean 'horses' rather than 'hoses,' Judi! A hosing is what we want Trump to take!
Jon, Thanks for the catch. We old folks hate to admit our equipment is failing us but, alas it is. I have the AI read to me but i put the mic away someplace and I know not where. I guess I will get another so I can dictate my words. I just might make fewer errors.
Right, a hosing is what we want for the felon. 😂
Just curious. If he were to withdraw, how do you select someone? Who picks? And how?
And what grounds do you have for not choosing VP Harris -- and who do you offend if you don't? Are you SURE none of the other candidates have time bomb issues in their past that would cripple them? (Thinking of Kimba Wood, Jon Edwards, Tom Eagleton, Brett Kavanaugh . . .). Biden has been battle tested. And as Clooney pointed out, it would be messy. But how do you pick someone without it turning into a typical Democratic mess (i.e. "I can't support Bernie Sanders because he voted with the NRA on gun legislation," etc.) And could they stand up to Trump, who wiped out an entire generation of Republican presidential contenders with his sharp tongue, as well as the MAGA media? Just wondering whether the ensuing mess be worse than the Biden we have?
I do mention Harris twice in the comment, and she is the most logical choice even though I personally would prefer Whitmer. Harris has been battle-tested, too. I think she has a better chance of standing up to Trump than Biden would. If Biden were to die before the Dem. convention, Harris would be the heir apparent to the nomination, and she is automatically eligible for any funds raised for Biden to this point. If Biden were to withdraw, the candidate would be picked at the convention. It might be a more interesting and even useful convention than it would otherwise. The fact that Biden has, actuarially, about a 50% chance of dying before the end of what would be his next term, plus an additional chance of severe impairment short of death, outweighs all other considerations at this point. The age issue must be put to rest, and the only way to do this is for Biden to withdraw. You don't think it would be messy to leave Biden in? Ideologically the Democrats are pretty much united these days, around their mutual loathing of Trump if nothing else, and support for Ukraine and opposition to Putin. So I am not worried about the kind of ideological issues that might have arisen in the past (say 1968 or 1980).
Well that certainly simplifies the discussion. If you think Harris would have a better shot at beating Trump then Biden would, then I guess I understand. But what do you base that on? Hopefully not the hysterical media coverage. And note that everyone (I trust you included) who opposes Biden staying in the race says that they would vote for him -- although they are afraid no one else will. Meanwhile. the attacks have already started for the benefit of his base -- Trump has said the VP is an idiot and was chosen for the color of her skin and being a woman. He called her the "DEI candidate." Meanwhile, what evidence do you have that she can execute the responsibilities ahead of her -- such as close the border (the border has been her assignment as VP -- and it's the hot button issue for Trump followers...) Plus, note that currently you get Harris with Biden -- if he can't serve out the term, she becomes president.
Bill, as I said in my comment, I think almost ANYONE has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden does, now, because of the age issue. Harris makes the job easier; there is a sort of natural succession at work if she is chosen (including the all-important transfer of funds). Although Harris is not my preferred candidate, I think that under the pressure of trying to beat Trump, she would grow into the job. She did really well against Biden in the first primary campaign debate, and I'm sure she would do even better against Trump. Being attacked by him is a badge of honour, and his racism and sexism certainly wouldn't help him in the general election campaign.
I have said for two years that Biden should not run again. I pay little if any attention to the media coverage, for the most part. My own analysis shows that only 15% of Presidents have lived to the age he would be at the end of his next term--not very good odds. He is the first person ever to serve at the age of 80 or older and the first ever elected past age 70. So we are in sort of uncharted territory here. Nothing is ever 100%, of course, but Harris is a lot younger and a lot smarter than Trump, and has Biden's strong record to run on. I would much rather run on that record, with economic improvement and support for Ukraine and NATO, than run on the Republican Project 2025 platform, with support for Putin and Orban, deportation of 11 million immigrants (which would make orange juice and salads cost three times as much), military training in public schools, and abolition of the Education Department. That along with Trump's terrible record is not much to run on, to put it very mildly. The contrast between the two agendas is stark. Any half-way intelligent candidate should be able to make the case for the Democratic agenda pretty easily, absent the age issue.
Finally, just to be clear, as I have said more times than I care to enumerate: I will vote for whomever the Democrats nominate, so long as it is not some outright kook like RFK Jr. or Lyndon Larouche.
I have asked twice and not gotten an answer (sorry to be persistent, I was trained as a journalist) to my question about on what basis do you say anyone would have an easier time beating Trump than Biden. Your evidence: you think so, and that you have said so for years. Got it. You answered my question. Have a good day.
I now have more evidence than I had earlier in the day.
For one thing, James Carville, one of the top political strategists of the past half century and a major architect of Bill Clinton's wins, agrees with me totally. So does David Axelrod, a key advisor to Barack Obama. So it is not just this one guy pecking away on his computer in Canada.
For another thing, Biden is, according to the polls, far behind where he was four years ago at the same point in the election cycle. Four years ago at this stage, he led Trump by 10 points; now he trails him by 6 points. The overall Democratic trend is not that bad. . .the party has not taken a drop of 16 points in races for the House and Senate. So the reason for the drop has to be Biden himself, and presumably if he were replaced, the drop would be reduced or would even go away altogether.
Other polls show Biden trailing in states where down-ballot candidates are leading. One such state is Wisconsin, where Biden trails by several points but incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin leads by several points. And it is evidently the same in Colorado, Ohio, Montana, and a couple more states beyond that. If Biden is trailing at a time when the overall trend appears to be Democratic, then, once again, the problem is with him, and replacing him would likely fix the problem. James Carville said that if Biden were replaced, he thought the Democrats could win 54% in the Presidential election. Right now, the party is polling closer to 44%. Again, it is all on Biden.
Other potential candidates are not 80+ years old, do not have cognitive issues, and have not performed as badly in debates as Biden did. For what it's worth, I myself am 79 and see my own cognitive faculties as starting to decline, just over the last year or so. Given what I do with my life, it doesn't make all that much difference, but if I wished to be in public life--which I absolutely do not--it would be important. I myself would not run for Library Board or City Council at my age, let alone the Presidency.
Iron clad evidence is impossible to come by in a case like this, where we are working in uncharted territory as there has never before been a President over 80, and certainly not one who would be 86 by the end of his term, an age that only 7 previous Presidents have reached. But the fact that Biden is running so far behind his previous performance, and behind down-ballot candidates from his own party in key battleground states, should send up all kinds of red flags. Overall this appears to be a good Democratic year, with an economy that is performing well and an exceptionally unpopular Republican candidate who also happens to be a criminal, a rapist, and demented. It speaks volumes that Biden is not winning by 10 points or more.
Cognitive decline is absolutely to be expected in one of Biden's age. It follows that almost anyone not of an age to have experienced cognitive decline should do better in the race.
I hope this satisfies you. I can think of four candidates who would all do well: Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and Kamala Harris. Newsom has said he won't run, so that rules him out. And Shapiro is a new governor, so one might opt for someone with more experience. This leaves Whitmer and Harris. As I have said elsewhere, I would prefer Whitmer, but Harris would make for an easier switch. For one thing, she would automatically be entitled to the campaign funds currently accumulated. For another, she has run a national campaign before and thus would be better prepared.
Aside from Harris' advantages, I don't think it much matters who the Democrats pick so long as it is a reasonable candidate who can speak well and is, preferably, under age 65. Frankly, it is hard for me to imagine how any qualified candidate could do worse than Biden at this point.
Good night, Bill.
Whoever she is, she looks pretty damn good next to a man who told people to inject bleach and drink Lysol to deal with COVID!!!!
"You think" Harris can beat Trump.
And you have been saying for "two years that Biden should not run again."
And she looks good next to someone who told people to drink bleach.
Got it.
In a way it is easy for the Democrats because Trump is such a low bar. . .
https://youtu.be/2acbmSjSvvI?si=tm41Q-vDrKr96fEt
Thanks Robin.
Heck yeah Robin!
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