January 7, 2020

Jan 08, 2020

All eyes have been on Iran and Iraq today. I am not in any way an expert on the Middle East, so as I try to cover today’s events, please remember that while I can tell you what news sources say about that region, I can offer informed assessments of my own only on America.

Tonight, in retaliation for the killing of Qassem Soleimani, Iran launched 15 ballistic missiles against two Iraqi military bases that have American troops on them. Ten hit the Ain al-Asad base in western Iraq, the base at the center of US operations. One hit a base in Irbil, in the Kurdish region, a base that is the hub of special operations. Four failed to hit their targets. Initial reports say there were Iraqi casualties at the bases. No American casualties have yet been reported. (A “casualty” in war means someone injured or killed).

Immediately after the attack, Iranian officials echoed Trump’s tweet of the American flag after he targeted Soleimani by tweeting images of the Iranian flag. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards also echoed Trump when they issued a statement saying: “If America responds to these attacks there will be bigger attacks on the way. This is not a threat, it’s a warning.”

Vice President Mike Pence, rather than Trump, briefed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) about the strikes. U.S. stock futures dropped badly and oil stocks rose upon the news of the strikes.

After the attack, Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, tweeted: “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched. We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”

Moments after the Foreign Minister’s tweet, Trump tweeted: “All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.”

Trump declined to address the nation tonight, and delaying a public speech permitted him to watch Fox News personalities discuss what he should do next. Tucker Carlson tonight was dead against escalating the conflict and instead said Trump should concentrate on his base issues: immigration and getting rid of homeless camps. But Carlson was alone. Sean Hannity, Pete Hegseth, Laura Ingraham, and Lou Dobbs all want Trump to escalate the conflict.

Fox News Channel personalities are invested in the tough guy narrative I wrote about last night, because it excites their viewers. Trump’s campaign is already trying to take advantage of that narrative by running almost 800 new Facebook ads highlighting Soleimani’s killing. One senior administration official told a reporter that before the backlash, Trump told aides that killing Soleimani would be politically popular and that Iran would not retaliate with “anything too stupid.”

But Trump is suddenly realizing that tough guy actions create consequences in the real world. He knows Americans do not want to go to war with Iran; he ran in part on that issue. He cannot afford trouble in the stock market. And the blowback for the Soleimani killing is already mounting (hence the ads trying to argue it was a triumph). Evidence continued to grow today that there was, in fact, no “imminent danger” that required Soleimani’s killing. The man was instrumental in much violence in the Middle East, but Secretary of State Mike Pompeo referred only generally to “the history” as justification for killing him at this particular moment. Responding to reporters’ questions today, Trump offered nothing more concrete.

This matters because if there was no imminent threat, Trump was required to inform Congress before taking action against Soleimani.

There is speculation that Trump is going to take the off ramp that this attack has given him, declaring victory and walking away from the conflict. That would be in keeping with his personality—to cause a crisis and then claim victory when it resolves-- and the rapid about face of tonight’s tweet, with its three cheery exclamation points and the "All is well!", suggests he’s headed that direction. But while de-escalation right now is imperative, journalist Yashar Ali tonight warns that none of us should think this is over. He pointed out that this will not be the end of Iran’s retaliation. That government’s revenge for attacks tends to come later, and to be against “soft” targets, such as diplomats or specific groups.

There is other news surrounding Iran tonight, and folks are speculating in irresponsible ways. Late tonight, a Boeing 737 carrying 180 people to Ukraine crashed near Tehran shortly after it took off. First reports say it suffered a mechanical failure. We’ll see. Immediately thereafter, two earthquakes hit Iran. My seismologist friends say this was certainly natural. While there have been suggestions it might have been caused by a nuclear test, the seismologists say this is dead wrong: it was far deeper than nuclear testing, and had an entirely different pattern (apparently they use the data from nuclear tests as controls for earthquake science so they know the patterns very well. Who knew?!). They say not to make the mistake of linking the quake to politics.

In news closer to home, we learned today from Khalid bin Salman, the younger brother of the Saudi Crown Prince MBS—the man our intelligence community believes approved the murder of Jamal Khashoggi—that he met today with Trump “to deliver a message from the Crown Prince, and review aspects of our bilateral cooperation, including efforts to confront regional and international challenges.” Americans learned this because KBS tweeted about it. The photo he tweeted included Jared Kushner at his side. The meeting was not on the president’s public schedule, and the White House did not provide a read-out for it.

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Notes:

Crash: https://twitter.com/i/events/1214755312034385921

Earthquakes: https://newsbreakinglive.com/2020/01/07/news-breaking-alert-multiple-earthquakes-reported-in-iran/

FNC tonight: