Our foreign policy lacks adult leadership. The world is dumbfounded by our dummies going abroad. At least our leaders are not yet shooting our citizens, but they will crack skulls and shoot us. We need to be ready for that fork in the road. https://bit.ly/4b5wkL4
Not just foreign, missing leadership in all events being directed from the White House and especially Congress who must stop this American tragedy. There was once a time I proudly wore my uniform. Today I worry how those uniforms will be used to carry out Trump's plans. I will never understand how our country elected a President with his history....rape...celebrates how he can treat women... found guilty of major crimes couple of times. But that not the all....his attitude towards citizens and his worship of dictators and wealth.
I am quite certain ANY educated statistician would agree there was algorithmic manipulation, I.e. a computer hack, in the 2024 election after reviewing this data. The data is INCOMPATIBLE with REALITY!
Reagan won 80% of the popular vote and even he didn’t win all 7 swing states.
This election WAS STOLEN from Harris.
HAND recounts in the swing states would have shown this.
This is the very latest analysis showing data on NUMEROUS states:
What can we DO about this?? Harris is the LEGITIMATE president! (This was the “secret” Trump was talking about).
👉. Perhaps the STATE Attorney Generals associated with the 5 Democratic swing states could rule the ballots should be HAND recounted. The reason because the voters were disenfranchised.
Over a million voters registrations were thrown out without cause and it appears the tabulator computers were tampered with from this impossible unrealistic data. So we need to put pressure on those 5 Democratic Attorney Generals in the swing states to do HAND RECOUNTS. They are:
Arizona - Kris Mayes - Democrat
Phoenix Office 2005 N Central Ave Phoenix, AZ 85004-2926 (602) 542-5025
Michigan - Dana Nessels - Democrat
(517) 335-7622
North Carolina - Jeff Jackson - Democrat
919-716-6400 -5
Nevada - Aaron D Ford - Democrat
Wisconsin - Josh Kaul - Democrat
This is not a “normal “ election. It screams of manipulation. Trump doesn’t follow the rules or laws. The American Citizens deserve HAND RECOUNTS in the swing states. They deserve to know who REALLY WON!
Maybe the “rule” of window of time for hand recounts expired, but then again it was not revealed to the public until recently the election data was not only UNREALISTIC, it was IMPOSSIBLE! Again, this was NOT a “normal election.”
Donald Trump didn’t just steal the election, he stole America’s future. And it will stay that way unless we do something about it.
Trump campaigned hard amplifying anti-liberal hatreds, anti-LGBT, anti-immigrant, anti-women, pro-'Christian', pro toxic masculinity, anti-'other', etc. He campaigned to his base ... not to all Americans. He was openly supportive of Viktor Orban, a dictator. Meanwhile, between his first Admin. & re-election, The Heritage Foundation (far right think group) had been developing his plan (Project 2025) for his second term and silicone valley $$ got him back into office and are now decimating our Democracy. Somehow, major groups missed all the cues as to what would unfold. Now we are here.
One reminder. Trump is pro Christian Nationalist which is a political movement. If readers are not familiar with this group I encourage our readers to study their history
I agree, but the 'blame' for all the red state pain will fall on the democrats. I feel only contempt for gop voters. But they do not operate on factual information.
Completely disgusted for the future. My kids and the rest of the children in this world deserve better. Every single situation that is unfolding is worse then the last. Really appreciate the insight and educational approach that you offer.
Sorry for the length, but I have been writing for well over a decade in comments at NYT, WaPo and for a short while until recently at WSJ about the GOP's claim that wasteful spending was a main cause for our deficits and that this was a myth designed to distract people from the fact that it was largely the GOP tax cuts that have been robbing us blind and causing large increases in our deficits and therefore debt since Reagan came along.
The information is obvious and is public record on the CBO website.
I was a business and economics major when Reagan was coming into office, and so I saw how my professors reacted and that was with laughter at all of his nonsense. If they only knew then how dangerous all of these lies would become and how it would facilitate a GOP who could convince their base that facts and the real world are somehow fake, ushering in a place where conspiracies and propaganda can take hold... but it was hard to envision that the GOP would ever be able to convince so many in the voting public that all of the world's experts and facts and data are all false - it seemed nonsensical - but here we are.
At the time, there was no internet or cable TV, or cable was in its infancy, so most of us all watched the same news, and even if the GOP and Dems disagreed on policy, they used the same basic factual information with which to make their arguments.
There are several ways the GOP fools their base by making logical sounding arguments out of what are actually illogical assumptions and they are enabled by people being in "bubble media" outlets.
1. The idea of "record revenues" after tax cuts is sold to the base because the GOP fails to explain that every year is a record revenue year, unless we have a recession, but after the tax cut we actually bring in hundreds of billions less than had been projected prior and thus, this gets added to the yearly deficit.
Due to population growth, GDP growth and even average inflation in normal economic times, revenue increases every year, unless we have a recession, but so does spending for many of the same reasons (like population growth and even average inflation) thus after tax cuts, the gap between revenue and spending widens and deficits grow.
If we had the same revenue to GDP that we had under Clinton (the last time we did not have a deficit) This would be 2.9% more in revenue to GDP.
We would have .029 X 30 trillion = 870 billion more in revenue = 870 billion less in deficits or about 1/2 the deficit.
This is largely due to the Bush and Trump tax cuts.
2. The other myth is that the House can cut spending enough with the budget process to get rid of deficits.
This is also massively false.
What congress votes on, discretionary spending, is about 6.3% of spending to GDP and is only about 1/4 of all government spending and 1/2 of this is for defense. It also has not increased as a percentage of discretionary spending to GDP. since Clinton, which was the last time we did not have a deficit and has even declined as a percentage of GDP over 50+ years.
Just like discretionary spending, our entire deficit is also 6.3% of GDP.
Thus, congress would have to cut ALL of discretionary spending, including defense, to get rid of the deficit with spending cuts in the budget process - yes all of it!
So, the freedom caucus's wild protests are rather circus like and seem to make zero sense.
It is largely a shiny object to dangle in front of those being lied to.
Thus, Musk chipping around the edges at agencies under discretionary spending, does not do squat for reducing the deficit. It is a very small percentage out of 1/2 of 1/4 of all spending - just peanuts, but it is very damaging to our nation's security because we need these experts.
The idea that any of this will make room for more tax cuts is 100% nonsense, but instead a shiny object that the GOP can dangle in front of their voting base (who think they are being effective) while they then pass tax cuts that will rob us all blind and explode deficits and debt so they can give most of any new tax cuts to the wealthy.
3. Why are they targeting government employees?
The GOP have spread constant lies every time GDP grows under a Dem president and say that it is all due to government jobs, including the run up to this election, which you point out here is not the case, and also if one reads the bea GDP reports, esp more recently under Biden, the main cause of growth was cited as product manufacturing.
4. What the GOP also omits telling their base, is that most of any spending increases to GDP are all due to mandatory spending increases, like for SS and Medicare, and Mandatory spending can't be cut with the budget process and why it is called "Mandatory." This type of spending can only be changed with policy changes which requires a supermajority in the Senate to overcome a filibuster. Congress can't simply use their "discretion" and vote to allocate less money to it.
Mandatory spending has also increased about 3% of GDP since Clinton, but we have largely been expecting this as boomers retire. It has been on the radar for decades.
Yes, there are now more on Medicaid, and yes, a lot of poorer seniors also qualify for Medicaid as well as Medicare, so that is a good chunk of that, as well. The subsidies on the ACA are actually a relatively small part of total government and Mandatory spending at less than 1% of GDP (not the cause). Also, more veterans benefits have been passed and Mandatory spending also includes retirement programs (once again, they too are an aging population).
5. Interest on our debt is very large, but compared to where it was under Clinton, it has only increased about .6% of GDP. Not the main cause as far as changes go.
So about 1/2 the increase in the deficit since Clinton is tax cuts and the other 1/2 is Mandatory spending which we largely saw coming - yet the GOP cut taxes anyway over decades and engaged in unfunded wars under Bush.
The truth is that we clearly need more revenue, not less.
6. One of the biggest myths the GOP uses and promotes is that the government can operate like a business. In an economy, a business is a single point of reference: money in - money out = profits.
In contrast, the government is a very large part of an interconnected system like part of a spinning wheel, known as our economy. It is not a single point of reference. The spinning cycle is perpetual and is economic activity itself.
The government is like a gear (or many gears) that interconnect and keep our economy running and spinning and the faster millions of gears turn the larger the economy actually gets and the more gears, businesses, it can support.
If you are not careful when you cut government spending, you put cogs in the gears, and the entire economy slows down and GDP shrinks.
When GDP shrinks, we bring in less revenue and the deficit actually grows.
An example is the financial crisis of 2008 that caused a massive decline in GDP in 2009.
Half of the deficit increase in 2009 was actually from lost revenue from the collapse of the economy itself! Shrinking GDP.
Most if the other 1/2 was TARP (bank bailout) passed under Bush.
This combination caused a projected deficit of 1.186 trillion before Obama was ever sworn in, yet the GOP blamed both TARP and the deficit on Obama and the Tea Party was born out of lies which also included "death panels" and a birth certificate.
7. This brings me to point 7, which is how the GOP fools the voting public about deficits and debt.
First of all, the GOP never bother to explain the difference between the two, and secondly, and this is the biggest one, they fail to mention that the calendar year and the federal fiscal year are not the same!
The Federal fiscal year begins the prior Oct 1, so by the time a president takes office the following January, 1/3 of the fiscal year is over.
In early January, the CBO reports its estimate for the rest of the fiscal year and makes future projection, with the data it has collected from Treasury Dept, as well as any new legislation and spending passed under the outgoing administration before a new president takes power.
This is why Obama said he inherited a trillion dollar deficit when he took office.
The report, "CBO: The Budget and Economic Outlook 2009-2019" came out on Jan 7, 2009, 2 weeks before Obama took office and had already projected a 1.186 trillion dollar deficit before Obama was ever sworn in later in January.
In fact, by the end of that fiscal year, less was spent than had been projected under Bush even with the stimulus, because the stimulus had a 10 yr price tag and less was spent in other areas and only about 110 billion of stimulus spending went out in 2009 (mentioned in Oct 2009 monthly budget review if I recall) and about the same went out in emergency tax cuts.
So who is really exploding deficits and debt?
The GOP!
Reagan tripled the deficit. Bush took us from a 230 billion surplus under Clinton to a 1.186 trillion dollar deficit. Obama took this and cut it in half to abt 559 billion before he left (Jan 2017 CBO report) and Trump nearly doubled this t0 1.015 trillion even before the pandemic hit our shores (Jan 2020 CBO report).
Obama did not reverse tax cuts when he had a majority because of the recession, and Biden had Sinema blocking a lot of this in the 50/50 Senate (even Manchin was for more revenue increases).
8. This leads me to my final point about how the GOP fools their base about debt.
First of all, just like the government's role in the economy is not like a business since the government is facilitating and is part of a circular system. Government debt is not like personal credit card debt or business debt.
Government debt is more like a mortgage.
If you have a million dollar house and a million dollar mortgage, you are not underwater and so long as you have enough income or wealthy renters you will be doing fine.
Your mortgage to GDP is 100% (similar to our nation's debt to GDP).
You, and the USA, are not about to declare bankruptcy as a result.
Your debt = your investment.
This is where we are now in the USA. Because we are part of the whole economic system, the government brings in revenue that is largely based on its GDP (the size and value of the house).
Right now, our debt or mortgage = our house or GDP.
As long as we keep our economy healthy and the value of our house does not shrink, we will be fine (but we do not seem to be charging enough rent = taxes).
Because of this, we may have to take out added mortgages or more debt. We need to maintain a better balance.
Our house and GDP also require maintenance.
Rather than a house, one can also think of the government maintaining a giant shopping mall which needs roads and bridges and communications and utility infrastructure and an educated and healthy prosperous workforce for businesses and a RELIABLE legal system to provide certainty for consumers, workers and businesses as well as local, and national security. The more the government helps the poor, so long as they do not destroy all motivation where opportunities exist, the larger GDP can grow since the poor spend every penny in the economy and the economy as a whole is a circular system.
Also, just like a house, if you only paid the interest on the debt and never paid down the mortgage, eventually, the house will increase in value and the debt will stay the same.
If your great grandpa bought beachfront property mid 20th century for 5,000 dollars and only paid the interest, the debt / mortgage that was once 100% at 5,000/5,000 will now be 5,000 / 10 million in 2025. A tiny fraction.
This is what happened to our old WWII debt.
We never paid it off, we simply stopped large growth of debt and our debt / GDP shrank as the entire economy (the denominator) grew (including average inflation) so that by the 1970's it had shrunk from over 100% of GDP down to about 30%.
That is until Reagan came along and started exploding deficits again.
So, no, we are not about to go bankrupt with our debt (unless Trump tanks the economy irreparably).
All we need to do is quit adding more per year than our GDP grows and thus keep the economy thriving.
We are not in an EMERGENCY situation with our debt.
The only ones who think so do not understand economics as a system, which neither Trump nor Musk seem to, or they simply want to use all the emergency nonsense to take over more power.
9. This now brings me to the final point which is taxes or rent for the house or shopping mall.
One reason we have a progressive tax system is so that those closer to the bottom have enough to spend, and they spend every single penny back into businesses.
Helping the poor is not only morally the right thing to do, but it also helps businesses and grows GDP and jobs.
The poor and middle class are the "many" in our nation when it comes to spending, This money flows up and out as Biden liked to put it.
Thus, waiting to tax more 'income" when it gets closer to the top, also means more income will make it to the top and the economy will be larger, as well. It is not zero sum (I will explain what money really is later but since it is just a tool to facilitate economic activity economies can expand and contract).
In contrast, the wealthy tend to put added after tax income into existing assets, ballooning those prices and not growing GDP.
Trump/Musk don't care about Republicans, Democrats, or people in general. We are collateral, as is our planet. They are only interested in removing checks on their power. We are fodder. Insects. They want to be rid of us. All of us. No quarter. I'm old, but I will resist this destruction of decency and democracy. I believe in the spirit of the Constitution.
So much important data in this podcast - this was packed! We are in such a terrible place right now and our defenses are so slow to deploy. So much damage is being done and will continue to be done before this can be brought to a halt. I think the media really needs to amp up messaging about all the harms - small to large & positively momentous. Excellent work, Heather!
Please, everyone. We must each and every one of us play our roles to protect this country from moving into an oligarchy with an authoritarian and convicted felon at the head. Every day, let's spend a few minutes inundating the phones lines of our representatives and senators in Washington. Then, spend a bit more time calling each of your state reps and state senators and then your local officials - letting each and everyone of them know how you feel about this take-over. And, then, let's pass the word around to everyone with whom we come into contact. And, then, let's each of us begin to volunteer to help the candidates in the mid-terms who oppose MAGA. And, then let's hope and, if you pray, pray that the judiciary will be the branch of government that will help to save America as we do our part.
Thank you again for such accurate, detailed, relevant reports and analysis, always with the perfect amount of historical context. Your reports are now a necessary part of my day.
Our foreign policy lacks adult leadership. The world is dumbfounded by our dummies going abroad. At least our leaders are not yet shooting our citizens, but they will crack skulls and shoot us. We need to be ready for that fork in the road. https://bit.ly/4b5wkL4
Not just foreign, missing leadership in all events being directed from the White House and especially Congress who must stop this American tragedy. There was once a time I proudly wore my uniform. Today I worry how those uniforms will be used to carry out Trump's plans. I will never understand how our country elected a President with his history....rape...celebrates how he can treat women... found guilty of major crimes couple of times. But that not the all....his attitude towards citizens and his worship of dictators and wealth.
I am quite certain ANY educated statistician would agree there was algorithmic manipulation, I.e. a computer hack, in the 2024 election after reviewing this data. The data is INCOMPATIBLE with REALITY!
Reagan won 80% of the popular vote and even he didn’t win all 7 swing states.
This election WAS STOLEN from Harris.
HAND recounts in the swing states would have shown this.
This is the very latest analysis showing data on NUMEROUS states:
https://open.substack.com/pub/smartelections/p/so-clean
https://youtu.be/qmzGOQwMG_k
https://youtu.be/3l8vWfaFVMU
https://youtu.be/T5cq1ITqzWU
👉 ElectionTruthAlliance.org
What can we DO about this?? Harris is the LEGITIMATE president! (This was the “secret” Trump was talking about).
👉. Perhaps the STATE Attorney Generals associated with the 5 Democratic swing states could rule the ballots should be HAND recounted. The reason because the voters were disenfranchised.
Over a million voters registrations were thrown out without cause and it appears the tabulator computers were tampered with from this impossible unrealistic data. So we need to put pressure on those 5 Democratic Attorney Generals in the swing states to do HAND RECOUNTS. They are:
Arizona - Kris Mayes - Democrat
Phoenix Office 2005 N Central Ave Phoenix, AZ 85004-2926 (602) 542-5025
Michigan - Dana Nessels - Democrat
(517) 335-7622
North Carolina - Jeff Jackson - Democrat
919-716-6400 -5
Nevada - Aaron D Ford - Democrat
Wisconsin - Josh Kaul - Democrat
This is not a “normal “ election. It screams of manipulation. Trump doesn’t follow the rules or laws. The American Citizens deserve HAND RECOUNTS in the swing states. They deserve to know who REALLY WON!
Maybe the “rule” of window of time for hand recounts expired, but then again it was not revealed to the public until recently the election data was not only UNREALISTIC, it was IMPOSSIBLE! Again, this was NOT a “normal election.”
Donald Trump didn’t just steal the election, he stole America’s future. And it will stay that way unless we do something about it.
Regular troops will follow only lawful orders. You know your training.
Trump campaigned hard amplifying anti-liberal hatreds, anti-LGBT, anti-immigrant, anti-women, pro-'Christian', pro toxic masculinity, anti-'other', etc. He campaigned to his base ... not to all Americans. He was openly supportive of Viktor Orban, a dictator. Meanwhile, between his first Admin. & re-election, The Heritage Foundation (far right think group) had been developing his plan (Project 2025) for his second term and silicone valley $$ got him back into office and are now decimating our Democracy. Somehow, major groups missed all the cues as to what would unfold. Now we are here.
One reminder. Trump is pro Christian Nationalist which is a political movement. If readers are not familiar with this group I encourage our readers to study their history
WHO are "our leaders" to which you refer? Elected officials?
I refer to the elected and appointed Trump Administration.
Another excellent recording. Many thanks for all of your amazing columns and recordings.
As usual, you’ve got the facts that show us just how destructive the Trump/Musk Republicans are. Thank you!
Totally disheartening.
Well, when those who voted the current leaders into office lose their benefits, or their families do, let's see how they react to THAT! Good move.
I agree, but the 'blame' for all the red state pain will fall on the democrats. I feel only contempt for gop voters. But they do not operate on factual information.
I feel like we're all being led around by the nose and we have little choice. I cannot understand why others do not see the deceit!?!
willful ignorance and/or lack of education, sadly
he is talking about Biden inflation already....
Completely disgusted for the future. My kids and the rest of the children in this world deserve better. Every single situation that is unfolding is worse then the last. Really appreciate the insight and educational approach that you offer.
Thank you for making this valuable message available in audio form.
Sorry for the length, but I have been writing for well over a decade in comments at NYT, WaPo and for a short while until recently at WSJ about the GOP's claim that wasteful spending was a main cause for our deficits and that this was a myth designed to distract people from the fact that it was largely the GOP tax cuts that have been robbing us blind and causing large increases in our deficits and therefore debt since Reagan came along.
The information is obvious and is public record on the CBO website.
I was a business and economics major when Reagan was coming into office, and so I saw how my professors reacted and that was with laughter at all of his nonsense. If they only knew then how dangerous all of these lies would become and how it would facilitate a GOP who could convince their base that facts and the real world are somehow fake, ushering in a place where conspiracies and propaganda can take hold... but it was hard to envision that the GOP would ever be able to convince so many in the voting public that all of the world's experts and facts and data are all false - it seemed nonsensical - but here we are.
At the time, there was no internet or cable TV, or cable was in its infancy, so most of us all watched the same news, and even if the GOP and Dems disagreed on policy, they used the same basic factual information with which to make their arguments.
There are several ways the GOP fools their base by making logical sounding arguments out of what are actually illogical assumptions and they are enabled by people being in "bubble media" outlets.
1. The idea of "record revenues" after tax cuts is sold to the base because the GOP fails to explain that every year is a record revenue year, unless we have a recession, but after the tax cut we actually bring in hundreds of billions less than had been projected prior and thus, this gets added to the yearly deficit.
Due to population growth, GDP growth and even average inflation in normal economic times, revenue increases every year, unless we have a recession, but so does spending for many of the same reasons (like population growth and even average inflation) thus after tax cuts, the gap between revenue and spending widens and deficits grow.
If we had the same revenue to GDP that we had under Clinton (the last time we did not have a deficit) This would be 2.9% more in revenue to GDP.
We would have .029 X 30 trillion = 870 billion more in revenue = 870 billion less in deficits or about 1/2 the deficit.
This is largely due to the Bush and Trump tax cuts.
2. The other myth is that the House can cut spending enough with the budget process to get rid of deficits.
This is also massively false.
What congress votes on, discretionary spending, is about 6.3% of spending to GDP and is only about 1/4 of all government spending and 1/2 of this is for defense. It also has not increased as a percentage of discretionary spending to GDP. since Clinton, which was the last time we did not have a deficit and has even declined as a percentage of GDP over 50+ years.
Just like discretionary spending, our entire deficit is also 6.3% of GDP.
Thus, congress would have to cut ALL of discretionary spending, including defense, to get rid of the deficit with spending cuts in the budget process - yes all of it!
So, the freedom caucus's wild protests are rather circus like and seem to make zero sense.
It is largely a shiny object to dangle in front of those being lied to.
Thus, Musk chipping around the edges at agencies under discretionary spending, does not do squat for reducing the deficit. It is a very small percentage out of 1/2 of 1/4 of all spending - just peanuts, but it is very damaging to our nation's security because we need these experts.
The idea that any of this will make room for more tax cuts is 100% nonsense, but instead a shiny object that the GOP can dangle in front of their voting base (who think they are being effective) while they then pass tax cuts that will rob us all blind and explode deficits and debt so they can give most of any new tax cuts to the wealthy.
3. Why are they targeting government employees?
The GOP have spread constant lies every time GDP grows under a Dem president and say that it is all due to government jobs, including the run up to this election, which you point out here is not the case, and also if one reads the bea GDP reports, esp more recently under Biden, the main cause of growth was cited as product manufacturing.
4. What the GOP also omits telling their base, is that most of any spending increases to GDP are all due to mandatory spending increases, like for SS and Medicare, and Mandatory spending can't be cut with the budget process and why it is called "Mandatory." This type of spending can only be changed with policy changes which requires a supermajority in the Senate to overcome a filibuster. Congress can't simply use their "discretion" and vote to allocate less money to it.
Mandatory spending has also increased about 3% of GDP since Clinton, but we have largely been expecting this as boomers retire. It has been on the radar for decades.
Yes, there are now more on Medicaid, and yes, a lot of poorer seniors also qualify for Medicaid as well as Medicare, so that is a good chunk of that, as well. The subsidies on the ACA are actually a relatively small part of total government and Mandatory spending at less than 1% of GDP (not the cause). Also, more veterans benefits have been passed and Mandatory spending also includes retirement programs (once again, they too are an aging population).
5. Interest on our debt is very large, but compared to where it was under Clinton, it has only increased about .6% of GDP. Not the main cause as far as changes go.
So about 1/2 the increase in the deficit since Clinton is tax cuts and the other 1/2 is Mandatory spending which we largely saw coming - yet the GOP cut taxes anyway over decades and engaged in unfunded wars under Bush.
The truth is that we clearly need more revenue, not less.
Part 2 (continued)...
6. One of the biggest myths the GOP uses and promotes is that the government can operate like a business. In an economy, a business is a single point of reference: money in - money out = profits.
In contrast, the government is a very large part of an interconnected system like part of a spinning wheel, known as our economy. It is not a single point of reference. The spinning cycle is perpetual and is economic activity itself.
The government is like a gear (or many gears) that interconnect and keep our economy running and spinning and the faster millions of gears turn the larger the economy actually gets and the more gears, businesses, it can support.
If you are not careful when you cut government spending, you put cogs in the gears, and the entire economy slows down and GDP shrinks.
When GDP shrinks, we bring in less revenue and the deficit actually grows.
An example is the financial crisis of 2008 that caused a massive decline in GDP in 2009.
Half of the deficit increase in 2009 was actually from lost revenue from the collapse of the economy itself! Shrinking GDP.
Most if the other 1/2 was TARP (bank bailout) passed under Bush.
This combination caused a projected deficit of 1.186 trillion before Obama was ever sworn in, yet the GOP blamed both TARP and the deficit on Obama and the Tea Party was born out of lies which also included "death panels" and a birth certificate.
7. This brings me to point 7, which is how the GOP fools the voting public about deficits and debt.
First of all, the GOP never bother to explain the difference between the two, and secondly, and this is the biggest one, they fail to mention that the calendar year and the federal fiscal year are not the same!
The Federal fiscal year begins the prior Oct 1, so by the time a president takes office the following January, 1/3 of the fiscal year is over.
In early January, the CBO reports its estimate for the rest of the fiscal year and makes future projection, with the data it has collected from Treasury Dept, as well as any new legislation and spending passed under the outgoing administration before a new president takes power.
This is why Obama said he inherited a trillion dollar deficit when he took office.
The report, "CBO: The Budget and Economic Outlook 2009-2019" came out on Jan 7, 2009, 2 weeks before Obama took office and had already projected a 1.186 trillion dollar deficit before Obama was ever sworn in later in January.
In fact, by the end of that fiscal year, less was spent than had been projected under Bush even with the stimulus, because the stimulus had a 10 yr price tag and less was spent in other areas and only about 110 billion of stimulus spending went out in 2009 (mentioned in Oct 2009 monthly budget review if I recall) and about the same went out in emergency tax cuts.
So who is really exploding deficits and debt?
The GOP!
Reagan tripled the deficit. Bush took us from a 230 billion surplus under Clinton to a 1.186 trillion dollar deficit. Obama took this and cut it in half to abt 559 billion before he left (Jan 2017 CBO report) and Trump nearly doubled this t0 1.015 trillion even before the pandemic hit our shores (Jan 2020 CBO report).
Obama did not reverse tax cuts when he had a majority because of the recession, and Biden had Sinema blocking a lot of this in the 50/50 Senate (even Manchin was for more revenue increases).
8. This leads me to my final point about how the GOP fools their base about debt.
First of all, just like the government's role in the economy is not like a business since the government is facilitating and is part of a circular system. Government debt is not like personal credit card debt or business debt.
Government debt is more like a mortgage.
If you have a million dollar house and a million dollar mortgage, you are not underwater and so long as you have enough income or wealthy renters you will be doing fine.
Your mortgage to GDP is 100% (similar to our nation's debt to GDP).
You, and the USA, are not about to declare bankruptcy as a result.
Your debt = your investment.
This is where we are now in the USA. Because we are part of the whole economic system, the government brings in revenue that is largely based on its GDP (the size and value of the house).
Right now, our debt or mortgage = our house or GDP.
As long as we keep our economy healthy and the value of our house does not shrink, we will be fine (but we do not seem to be charging enough rent = taxes).
Because of this, we may have to take out added mortgages or more debt. We need to maintain a better balance.
Our house and GDP also require maintenance.
Rather than a house, one can also think of the government maintaining a giant shopping mall which needs roads and bridges and communications and utility infrastructure and an educated and healthy prosperous workforce for businesses and a RELIABLE legal system to provide certainty for consumers, workers and businesses as well as local, and national security. The more the government helps the poor, so long as they do not destroy all motivation where opportunities exist, the larger GDP can grow since the poor spend every penny in the economy and the economy as a whole is a circular system.
Also, just like a house, if you only paid the interest on the debt and never paid down the mortgage, eventually, the house will increase in value and the debt will stay the same.
If your great grandpa bought beachfront property mid 20th century for 5,000 dollars and only paid the interest, the debt / mortgage that was once 100% at 5,000/5,000 will now be 5,000 / 10 million in 2025. A tiny fraction.
This is what happened to our old WWII debt.
We never paid it off, we simply stopped large growth of debt and our debt / GDP shrank as the entire economy (the denominator) grew (including average inflation) so that by the 1970's it had shrunk from over 100% of GDP down to about 30%.
That is until Reagan came along and started exploding deficits again.
So, no, we are not about to go bankrupt with our debt (unless Trump tanks the economy irreparably).
All we need to do is quit adding more per year than our GDP grows and thus keep the economy thriving.
We are not in an EMERGENCY situation with our debt.
The only ones who think so do not understand economics as a system, which neither Trump nor Musk seem to, or they simply want to use all the emergency nonsense to take over more power.
9. This now brings me to the final point which is taxes or rent for the house or shopping mall.
One reason we have a progressive tax system is so that those closer to the bottom have enough to spend, and they spend every single penny back into businesses.
Helping the poor is not only morally the right thing to do, but it also helps businesses and grows GDP and jobs.
The poor and middle class are the "many" in our nation when it comes to spending, This money flows up and out as Biden liked to put it.
Thus, waiting to tax more 'income" when it gets closer to the top, also means more income will make it to the top and the economy will be larger, as well. It is not zero sum (I will explain what money really is later but since it is just a tool to facilitate economic activity economies can expand and contract).
In contrast, the wealthy tend to put added after tax income into existing assets, ballooning those prices and not growing GDP.
Trump/Musk don't care about Republicans, Democrats, or people in general. We are collateral, as is our planet. They are only interested in removing checks on their power. We are fodder. Insects. They want to be rid of us. All of us. No quarter. I'm old, but I will resist this destruction of decency and democracy. I believe in the spirit of the Constitution.
So much important data in this podcast - this was packed! We are in such a terrible place right now and our defenses are so slow to deploy. So much damage is being done and will continue to be done before this can be brought to a halt. I think the media really needs to amp up messaging about all the harms - small to large & positively momentous. Excellent work, Heather!
how can the people who will be hurt by these polices actually be convinced that they are voting for their own despair?
Please, everyone. We must each and every one of us play our roles to protect this country from moving into an oligarchy with an authoritarian and convicted felon at the head. Every day, let's spend a few minutes inundating the phones lines of our representatives and senators in Washington. Then, spend a bit more time calling each of your state reps and state senators and then your local officials - letting each and everyone of them know how you feel about this take-over. And, then, let's pass the word around to everyone with whom we come into contact. And, then, let's each of us begin to volunteer to help the candidates in the mid-terms who oppose MAGA. And, then let's hope and, if you pray, pray that the judiciary will be the branch of government that will help to save America as we do our part.
It is so demoralizing, total heartbreak for the future of the country and even the world at large... implications are unbearable
Thank you again for such accurate, detailed, relevant reports and analysis, always with the perfect amount of historical context. Your reports are now a necessary part of my day.
with more protests across the country, i am holding my breath that we dont get a Kent State redo
Unreal… 🕯️🇺🇸