August 7, 2023
Things feel unsettled these days, partly because of chop in the prosecutorial waters surrounding the actions of former president Trump, partly because of changes in the U.S. economy, partly because of turmoil brought by climate change, and partly because of what appears to be the instability of a global realignment. This realignment has been forced by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the global effort to stand against that aggression.
Over the weekend, on August 5 and 6, representatives of 40 countries met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to explore the contours of peace between Ukraine and Russia. Russia was not invited to the meeting, but all the other members of BRICS (the economic organization made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) attended, illustrating Russia’s increasing isolation.
In February 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine, China and Russia pledged a “friendship without limits.” But that friendship appears to have frayed as what Russia seemed to think would be a quick land grab has stretched on for almost a year and half, straining Russia’s resources and isolating it from the global community. China sent its special envoy for Eurasian affairs and former ambassador to Russia, Li Hui, to the talks in Saudi Arabia.
Reporting on the weekend’s meeting, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that China’s “increasing misalignment with Russia on any settlement to end the war in Ukraine was…evident at the talks.” It noted the observation of the Financial Times that Chinese representatives were “keen to show that [China] is not Russia,” and that Russia appears to be more and more isolated from other nations. The ISW assesses that “China is not fully aligned with Russia on the issue of Ukraine and that Russia and China’s relationship is not a ‘no limits partnership’ as the Kremlin desires.”
Laurie Chen and Martin Quin Pollard of Reuters reported yesterday that China’s willingness to attend the talks in Saudi Arabia after declining to join earlier talks in Denmark likely indicates a recognition that it should participate in credible peace initiatives. Shen Dingli, an international relations scholar based in Shanghai, said that Russia is “bound to be defeated,” so China must try to cooperate with other nations without speeding Russia’s collapse.
Bloomberg noted that increasing tensions between China and Russia do not indicate a rift between the two countries so much as a way to create some space between the two. In a phone call today with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi reaffirmed that the nations are “good partners.”
Ukraine’s request for the meeting in Saudi Arabia seemed designed to isolate Russia further, as Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky made the case that the terms on which he is demanding any peace be based on universal principles behind which other nations can unite.
Russia has continued its attack on Ukrainian grain supplies, damaging another 40,000 tons of grain destined for Africa, China, and Israel on August 2. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues, although it is advancing more slowly than Ukrainian officials had hoped.
China has its own issues with the global community. Ellen Nakashima of the Washington Post reported today that since 2020, Chinese operatives have penetrated Japan’s defense networks in one of the most damaging hacks of Japan’s modern history. And Italy, which in 2019 was the only major western economy supporting China’s Belt and Road Initiative to tie together world markets and boost trade between China and Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa, is now planning to pull back from the project.
On Sunday, Italian defense minister Guido Crosetto told a newspaper that signing the deal was “an improvised and atrocious act…. We exported a load of oranges to China; they tripled exports to Italy in three years.” An expert on Italian relations with China says Italy wants to demonstrate a close alignment with “the U.S., Western camp” while keeping a stable relationship with China.
World affairs have shifted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Notes:
https://www.barrons.com/news/russian-strike-damaged-40-000-tonnes-of-grain-kyiv-26e0ae2d
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-7-2023
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/05/world/europe/ukraine-war-saudi-arabia-russia.html
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/07/middleeast/saudi-arabia-ukraine-talks-china-mime-intl/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/07/china-japan-hack-pentagon/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/belt-road-initiative-china-plans-1-trillion-new-silk-road-n757756
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/italy-suggests-exit-chinas-belt-road-shift-us-rcna97230
The "turmoil brought by climate change" is in its infancy. Yet the public at large seems largely tuned out. It's just a terribly hot summer, many believe, and not for much longer. In fact, scientific evidence increasingly shows the planet is approaching a tipping point, where dire changes will intensify and accelerate with devastating consequences — consequences that will be irreversible in the lifetimes of everyone alive today and generations to come.
On top of this, a Paul Krugman in today's NYT says "Climate Change is Now a Culture War Issue."
Republicans are killing us.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/opinion/climate-is-now-a-culture-war-issue.html
This is an amazing and timely essay. Everyone is so focused on Trump and his lawyers but there are larger issues at stake. Yet that I have to mention Trump is the internal invasion of democracy by the GOP. Biden has done everything except solve or address the PTSD and Trauma of the previous administration and he must start addressing this in the argument that all democrats must make in unison that enough is enough!
Thank you Heather for providing this insight.