Thank goodness, dump’s base will not determine the outcome of the next election. A refreshing report today, Heather, focusing on solutions and actual work being done in this hemisphere to help stem the flood of immigration to the US. I was impressed so many Americans are employed by the governments involved in the effort to create local …
Thank goodness, dump’s base will not determine the outcome of the next election. A refreshing report today, Heather, focusing on solutions and actual work being done in this hemisphere to help stem the flood of immigration to the US. I was impressed so many Americans are employed by the governments involved in the effort to create local opportunities in countries which desperately need them to stop the violence driving so many to leave. I hope now, at almost 5 am in Maine or the east coast where you may be writing, that you will turn in and get some peaceful sleep. Thank you!
The outcome of the next presidential election is very much in doubt and Trump’s base--while not expanding--will certainly play a crucial role. The arcane Electoral College, coupled with Biden’s low popularity and the increasing threat that the most radical Trumpublican supporters simply won’t accept the outcome, should their boy not win, have us on the edge of armed civil conflict.
Since, Dave, we are “armed” with the truth, I will head into the conflict at my voting booth. There is already so much violence, it’s hard to imagine anything worse. We must not be fearful. There are far more of “us” than “them”.
The issue is not whether we outnumber Trump’s fervent admirers, but rather whether the voting process allows for the majority to prevail. The Electoral College isn’t the only problem. Voter suppression is a considerable threat, as is voter apathy. Add to that the right-wing radicals who do not accept the legitimacy of the last election, and will not accept the next, if Trump loses. That group, BTW, includes the new Speaker of the House.
The electoral college and gerrymandering, there continues to be strong push-back on efforts to monitor gerrymandering thus the electoral college will remain under the rug, so to speak.
Oh, it could be way worse. Just ask the Congress men and women who feared for their lives in the Capitol. Yes, our votes are extremely important, but “they” are the ones with all the weapons and just waiting for their corrupt leader to give the signal. Don’t become complacent.
Rep. Jackie Speier was shot five times and left for dead on a runway in Guyana when she was an aide Rep. Leo Ryan. Ryan, who was investigating the Jonestown cult, was murdered. About 40 years later, Speier hid on the floor of the House of Representatives, again fearing for her life, as Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol. Cultists follow their leader’s instructions, whether in South America or in D.C.
Hard as that is to believe AND it might not be true given that the election is way off and polls are done by calling a home phone number which almost nobody has anymore, EXCEPT old people like me, BUT, the news is reporting Biden behind now.
Polls dependent on "home phone number" do not poll young people. None of them have "home phone number" to call.
I agree, the polls are unreliable and the election is a ways away. But it’s the voting process itself that concerns me. Bit by bit, Democracy is being nibbled away and the vast majority of Americans are either too busy just trying to make ends meet, disinterested in the process, or too obsessed with the most salacious parts of pop culture, to notice.
One of my bigger monthly contributions is to Democracy Docket. I recommend it highly. They've recently been able to add legal staff due to people supporting them. It's still a surprisingly small group supporting them, though. I qualify as one of those small donors but we can add up when we all participate.
That worries me, too. The voter suppression activity on the right is often unconstitutional, but stopping it may take too long. I'm sure MAGAs know that and are using it.
Mike, in thinking about messengering, at the moment any Democrat Thrust now may be stale come next Sept, losing impact on voter’s. Do you think it possible that a comprehensive information campaign may begin next August addressing key voter concerns with line by line Biden accomplishments that address what voters say is important to them?
“Hello American Voters, you say you want a strong economy? This is what WE did (content displayed). This is what THEY want (content displayed; notice who delivers and who doesn’t”
Ten second ads, bombarding the masses in spite of the media’s demonstrated lack of coverage
The American public no longer wants to Think. It votes based on Feeling.
"A wall goes up when you try to make Mr. And Mrs. Average American Citizen work or think." --Clem Whitaker of Campaigns Inc, AKA The Lie Factory.
"Make it personal. Candidates are easier to sell than issues. If your position doesn't have an opponent, invent one. Pretend that you are the voice of the people. You can't wage a defensive campaign and win. Never shy from controversy; instead win the controversy. "The average American doesn't want to be educated, he doesn't want to improve his mind; he doesn't want to work, consciously, at being a good citizen. But there are 2 ways you can interest him in a campaign, and only 2 that we have ever found successful." You can put on a fight ("He likes a good battle with no punches pulled"), or you can put on a show ("He likes the movies, he likes mysteries; he likes fireworks and parades). "So, if you can't fight, PUT ON A SHOW! If you put on a good show, Mr. And Mrs. America will turn out to see it.' "
-- Jill Lepore writing in her history book "These Truths" about the successful strategy of Campaigns Inc, the first political marketing firm that also successfully tanked universal healthcare efforts in California.
"It votes based on Feeling." Ultimately, so do I. So do all of us. If I feel threatened (as with women's rights being taken away), that feeling not only sends me to the polls (I've always voted) it makes me tell other people about it, about how I feel and why. We can connect the dots, people. We can be authentic about our own fears to those around us. "What are you afraid of?" is a question therapists ask to help people get insights into why they behave the ways that they do. Greedy people, for example, are greedy for a reason (or many reasons), but when they can see what they are afraid of not having, or what they might be losing, it goes beyond money or power. Basically, I think most people want acceptance, acknowledgement, and respect. That's it. Play with that idea.
Possibly the more effective as campaign would hammer away at who really supports Trump. Introduce Trump's "forgotten man" base to the oligarchs and billionaires who truly stand to gain from a second Trump term, and how the little people Trump calls his base of support will actually be forgotten when the ultra rich retake power.
Pull the curtain back on the people running Trump and the Republicans at all levels while also showing how Democrats have the people's interests at heart and have demonstrated that priority over the entirety of Biden's term.
Educate voters instead of dishing out propaganda. Treat the people as if they are intelligent, and you might find out that they are.
Re “intelligent” people, I used to think that was the case. Now I’m not convinced there are enough of them, but if “educating” = enlightening them to current efforts by Biden Adm, I think thats what my aten Seconds is about
Yes. And guess what? We can band together and get some of this done. How about a Go Fund Me for political ads like this? It's not my strength, but for someone who knows how to do this, I bet we can raise the money. Personally, I love and support The Lincoln Project, and they target their ads to "the others" to shame them, so I don't use it for my own circles of friends and acquaintances because it's too "in your face" for me personally to retain credibility as a thoughtful thinker. So, we don't need to duplicate that approach but I like your idea, Dave. Let's do that (and I mean, would you spearhead that project?)
Mike S, thank you for your simple-sounding explanation of how polls are conducted. It's no wonder the polls don't make any sense. One would think no-one would trust numbers coming out of such an anachronistic (mid-20th century?) process for gauging what any given percentage of "likely voters" are likely to do. It would be fascinating to see some actual research about what determines who answers their land-line anymore, why they do and what impels them to take the time to answer questions on a survey, let alone how the pollers formulate the wording of their questions.
Mike, neither my sons nor their wives have ever been polled. They’re in their 30s, I’m in my 70s. I gave up a land line when I no longer needed it for internet service. I occasionally get a mail-in poll, but never about political candidates. It’s more than just the “younger than us”.
Mike, Beau of the Fifth Column has a recent good clip about polls. He noted that at this point in the election cycle, in 2015, guess who was leading the polls?
Mike S, I've posted this months (years?) ago, I will do it again for people who might not have seen it.
In 2020, I did TONS of polls. There are several websites I am aware of, but the one I was entertaining myself with during COVID is Surveyjunkie.com. You actually are PAID to do surveys. Trust me, you won't get rich on them--they generally pay point that equal anything form 15 cents to a buck for answering a poll. You can then trade in your points for gift cards or cash deposited into a bank account. Some people like to do computer games, I liked to do this.
You will be asked qualifying questions and if you meet the demographic they are looking for, and they haven't already exceeded the number they want, you will be picked. There is a lot of political polls, polls about new products, polls about services (a lot on banking) and phone companies.
I wish I could recall the name of the book, (this will be vague, sorry) but I read a recent book about numbers. One section talked about bias in polls. I was amazed to see the very questions I had answered, not realizing the bias which was obvious after it was explained to me!
One in particular has been in the news and I frequently answered it: Is the country going in the wrong direction?
A MAGA might say YES, as they are upset with Biden, with liberals, with trans people, whatever.
I would say YES, because I am upset with book banning, the SCOTUS, reproductive rights being stripped away, voter suppression.
WHO funded that poll, and how will they use that information? See what I mean?
I agree, I don't think many people answer phones. Even the internet polling will select people--I discovered that once I hit 65, I was frequently immediately eliminated when I typed in my age. (Ageism!)
“ I set out to analyze FiveThirtyEight’s collection of 400+ primary polls from the past year, closely inspecting their results and methodologies. It didn’t take long to realize that poll participants were actually reached a variety of ways.”
It was interesting to me that of voters who said Biden and Trump were both too old, they favored Biden by about 60%. The ones who don’t see Trump as old puzzle me. (Oh, but he is a “fighter.” Bluster must count as putting up a fight.)
I would love to know how the questions are formulated. That's critical to understanding the answers. In my forties I attended community college. In one class, many of us had answers that were marked wrong and it was strictly because of the way questions were phrased. Long discussion with our instructor, and our tests were corrected.
All your concerns are legit and I agree it is frightening. But the polls are two things.
First they are meaningless because they don't involve a true slice of the electorate. I have seen no evidence that the polls use a large enough survey or that they reach a true representation of the voters. Do you know anyone who has ever been surveyed? And how did that happen? A land line? If the "polls" meant anything Hillary would be wrapping up her second term in office.
Second, they are motivating. It's possible this early warning shot across the bow will redouble our efforts to achieve a Blue Trifecta.
And at the risk of being too optimistic, the GQP and their new White Nationalist Fascist House leader are in the process of giving us a boatload of campaign weapons. The more extreme and dysfunctional they are, the better it is for us. Sadly, the nation must suffer first.
I don't think we should worry one hoot what Radical Racist Republicans think. We can hope that many of them will stay home next November as they watch their hero continue to relentlessly rant nonsense - perhaps from a jail cell. And there are way more of us than them. Two whole generations lean to our values. To help with that visit www.turnup.us.
When push comes to shove, on November 5, 2024 I believe that Americans will choose any Democrat over any Republican for POTUS based on the theft of women's autonomy and the Republican corruption that is being revealed daily. The Mike Johnson rotten onion is being peeled back. Trump's wealth is being revealed as a myth and it's about to be reduced real soon by a judge in NYC who he is attacking. You can't fix stupid.
Well, Bill, I certainly hope you are right. But, again, I’m concerned that this will not be a “fair fight” b/c the election process itself has been corrupted. In my estimation, the real “villains” in the drift toward authoritarian rule are the Republican Party enablers who whisper their discontent with Trump in off-the-record comments but are sniveling cowards when asked to speak out publicly. The “true believers” will not be turned by logic or facts. They are angry sycophants who love how Trump voices their hate.
It's my decent hope that the "true believers", while loud, will prove to be a small minority when votes are cast, and that their lasting legacy will be to motivate the majority to protect their mandate and the country's interests by coming to the polls in large numbers. If that happens, we will have three loudmouths, and the polls and news reports that overrepresent them, to thank.
I recently read of one problem with all polling is the folk who would change many statistics are the same people who ignore those telephone calls from anonymous sources who often are the pollers
I would be surprised if as many as 1/4 of the HCR group were ever polled and even less volunteer to be polled.
It’s impossible to devise any method of getting any cross section of American Views as a result. I suspect the result is the suggestion a thug could resume destroying Democracy.
All said, true. But, the lingering reality coming from the ineptitude of the Mike's pals is the growing feeling of confidence brewing within that Democrats will be blamed for failure of government going into November because they will not vote for legislation to reduce debt, regardless of the poison pills such legislation contains. Nothing like disarray to get voters to through the bums (majority party) out in a presidential election year. Project 2025 will rise from the rubble of America this cast of crypto-nihlists are bent upon yielding through these means.
My 40 year old son keeps saying, "Biden is too old!!!" He doesn't understand what REAL leadership looks like. I told him that he he wanted to have any rights at all, come 2024 he'd damn well better vote blue. Joe Biden is a decent person. He is not a mentally ill criminal, who has less integrity than a gnat. This upside down world we have now can make a person crazy!
Maybe you should get your son to watch HCR's interview at the LBJ library. It's on You Tube, and she makes the point that Biden has performed spectacularly for an "old man." He is the only US president to have gone into a war zone, and he's gone into two! (I don't know if your son is nervous about Kamila, but yesterday, I saw Stacy Abrahms speak about the prejudice against her as a Black woman, and I have to wonder if she doesn't have a point.)
It’s our culture! An 80 year old Scorsese gets praised for his lively create juices that produced “Killers of the Flower Moon,” while a younger much more involved and active President gets stereotyped as “too old.”
Texas is a mirror of USA, the GQP strongly controls the rural vote and strongly influences the exurban & suburban vote through fear, lies and conspiracy while the DNC strongly controls the urban vote.
The GQP is in power and doing everything they can to remain there. The Democrats and Independents need to register, educate, support and vote in order to take back at least a VOICE in the government.
If women is those countries had access to a termination * of an unwanted pregnancy and they weren't brain washed and controlled by their religion, there would be better economies and less young people with no jobs.
*....I wish they would stop using the term "abortion" ...it's has negative connotations: like an ugly thing...or, a completely wrong thing.
AND, BTW: I didn't desire, ask for or approve a personal substack!
Judith, I’m trying to respond to your question about my comment generally about Blinken’s recent attempted negotiations for humanitarian pauses, decreased pummeling so that hostages might be released and humanitarian aid allowed to pass into Gaza. You linked Consortium News 📰 and I asked if it were MSM; that was a knee jerk response, so sorry if I offended. Just wondered about validity as it was quite negative to our current administration. Thinking further, more likely to be junk news if MSM owned by the wealthy seeking profit not truth. So difficult to trust sources; believe you said another you were paying for presumably in quest for truth not clickbait. Truth in news reporting should be free as it once was but is no longer. Like everything else it’s about the 💰💰💰. If I am putting in thoughts not yours, please forgive. Writing from memory as cannot locate original post in threads.
BTW:....I am not offended by anything. ....... I pay for many news sources...the NY Times since early '90's when I got it delivered to my door in NYC. Now, I throw $$ at many news sources, because it's my "religion"; I believe journalism saves us. It has come to my attention, given I only paid attention to art and theater, books, that the powers that be are lying to us and ripping us off. You mentioned the "wealthy" I think it's un-American to be wealthy....they should be taxed to get a large part of that wealth back into the GD system. They only got it because they were lucky to be in the USA....or, like many in other countries: crooks and/or corrupt.
The Article was "quite negative to our current administration"...You betcha! Our current administration is saying what is politically expedient. The real truth does not matter. oh well, "Civilians always suffer in a "war", which this is not. This is bombing a concentration camp/prison...... I started studying this with Norman Finkelstein, then Ilan Pappe...and on and on. Those 2 are enough but I will continue to learn about this...I have Jimmy Carter's book Palestine, Peace or apartheid", my local English language library. ( living in Merida, Mexico. ) It's been most of my every waking hour. My X says, 'you can't do anything about it; you can't change anything". That does not mean I can't learn everything about it. I am amazed at how many don't know ...anything....it takes a lot of time and interest to begin to form a coherent opinion. 1000 little pieces so far. I am combining what I have recently learned with experiences over the last 60 years to form what I think about Israel. I'll just say this: it's predictable.
Journalism as your religion. I understand that. There are many sources I do not trust; many within Substack that I do. The impotence to do anything other than learn, share what you find and know is frustrating. We all should be better informed about the Mid East but I fear many don’t take the effort to learn more. The conflict caught me completely off guard when as you say, it was predictable. It’s been brewing forever. I noted too in the things I read, it is precisely bombing a concentration camp of innocents who have no exit. Apparently there are terrorists taking cover among civilians and that is truly heinous. I hope you will share some of those thousand pieces and your experience with those of us who do care and want to know more. In whatever way suits you. I can barely wrap my head around the pain those caught in the fray must be feeling. I read and saw a photo of a journalist who was reporting on an attack in a supposed safe area, one to which he and his family had moved to as instructed, where, unknown to him, his entire family was wiped out, Aljazeera I think. The heartbreak on his face was one of those photos that will stay with me
forever. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this, another very tragic night. 💔🕊️
Thank goodness, dump’s base will not determine the outcome of the next election. A refreshing report today, Heather, focusing on solutions and actual work being done in this hemisphere to help stem the flood of immigration to the US. I was impressed so many Americans are employed by the governments involved in the effort to create local opportunities in countries which desperately need them to stop the violence driving so many to leave. I hope now, at almost 5 am in Maine or the east coast where you may be writing, that you will turn in and get some peaceful sleep. Thank you!
The outcome of the next presidential election is very much in doubt and Trump’s base--while not expanding--will certainly play a crucial role. The arcane Electoral College, coupled with Biden’s low popularity and the increasing threat that the most radical Trumpublican supporters simply won’t accept the outcome, should their boy not win, have us on the edge of armed civil conflict.
Since, Dave, we are “armed” with the truth, I will head into the conflict at my voting booth. There is already so much violence, it’s hard to imagine anything worse. We must not be fearful. There are far more of “us” than “them”.
The issue is not whether we outnumber Trump’s fervent admirers, but rather whether the voting process allows for the majority to prevail. The Electoral College isn’t the only problem. Voter suppression is a considerable threat, as is voter apathy. Add to that the right-wing radicals who do not accept the legitimacy of the last election, and will not accept the next, if Trump loses. That group, BTW, includes the new Speaker of the House.
The electoral college and gerrymandering, there continues to be strong push-back on efforts to monitor gerrymandering thus the electoral college will remain under the rug, so to speak.
Nice recent outcome in ND.
Oh, it could be way worse. Just ask the Congress men and women who feared for their lives in the Capitol. Yes, our votes are extremely important, but “they” are the ones with all the weapons and just waiting for their corrupt leader to give the signal. Don’t become complacent.
Rep. Jackie Speier was shot five times and left for dead on a runway in Guyana when she was an aide Rep. Leo Ryan. Ryan, who was investigating the Jonestown cult, was murdered. About 40 years later, Speier hid on the floor of the House of Representatives, again fearing for her life, as Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol. Cultists follow their leader’s instructions, whether in South America or in D.C.
Thank you for this information.
Dave,
"The outcome of the next presidential election is very much in doubt"
Yes, new polls out show Trump leading Biden by as much as 10 points in all swing states.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/05/politics/trump-leads-biden-in-key-swing-states-new-polling-finds/index.html
Hard as that is to believe AND it might not be true given that the election is way off and polls are done by calling a home phone number which almost nobody has anymore, EXCEPT old people like me, BUT, the news is reporting Biden behind now.
Polls dependent on "home phone number" do not poll young people. None of them have "home phone number" to call.
I agree, the polls are unreliable and the election is a ways away. But it’s the voting process itself that concerns me. Bit by bit, Democracy is being nibbled away and the vast majority of Americans are either too busy just trying to make ends meet, disinterested in the process, or too obsessed with the most salacious parts of pop culture, to notice.
Dave,
"or too obsessed with the most salacious parts of pop culture, to notice."
Yes, back in Ben Franklins day the "salacious parts of pop culture" WERE politics. Hence his foray into printing.
And, everyone had to READ to comprehend which is a more through process of consuming information.
One of my bigger monthly contributions is to Democracy Docket. I recommend it highly. They've recently been able to add legal staff due to people supporting them. It's still a surprisingly small group supporting them, though. I qualify as one of those small donors but we can add up when we all participate.
Mark Elias and his team are wonderful!!
That worries me, too. The voter suppression activity on the right is often unconstitutional, but stopping it may take too long. I'm sure MAGAs know that and are using it.
Mike, in thinking about messengering, at the moment any Democrat Thrust now may be stale come next Sept, losing impact on voter’s. Do you think it possible that a comprehensive information campaign may begin next August addressing key voter concerns with line by line Biden accomplishments that address what voters say is important to them?
“Hello American Voters, you say you want a strong economy? This is what WE did (content displayed). This is what THEY want (content displayed; notice who delivers and who doesn’t”
Ten second ads, bombarding the masses in spite of the media’s demonstrated lack of coverage
“Ten Seconds For Democracy”, it shall be known as
The American public no longer wants to Think. It votes based on Feeling.
"A wall goes up when you try to make Mr. And Mrs. Average American Citizen work or think." --Clem Whitaker of Campaigns Inc, AKA The Lie Factory.
"Make it personal. Candidates are easier to sell than issues. If your position doesn't have an opponent, invent one. Pretend that you are the voice of the people. You can't wage a defensive campaign and win. Never shy from controversy; instead win the controversy. "The average American doesn't want to be educated, he doesn't want to improve his mind; he doesn't want to work, consciously, at being a good citizen. But there are 2 ways you can interest him in a campaign, and only 2 that we have ever found successful." You can put on a fight ("He likes a good battle with no punches pulled"), or you can put on a show ("He likes the movies, he likes mysteries; he likes fireworks and parades). "So, if you can't fight, PUT ON A SHOW! If you put on a good show, Mr. And Mrs. America will turn out to see it.' "
-- Jill Lepore writing in her history book "These Truths" about the successful strategy of Campaigns Inc, the first political marketing firm that also successfully tanked universal healthcare efforts in California.
Brilliant post. Thanks.
"It votes based on Feeling." Ultimately, so do I. So do all of us. If I feel threatened (as with women's rights being taken away), that feeling not only sends me to the polls (I've always voted) it makes me tell other people about it, about how I feel and why. We can connect the dots, people. We can be authentic about our own fears to those around us. "What are you afraid of?" is a question therapists ask to help people get insights into why they behave the ways that they do. Greedy people, for example, are greedy for a reason (or many reasons), but when they can see what they are afraid of not having, or what they might be losing, it goes beyond money or power. Basically, I think most people want acceptance, acknowledgement, and respect. That's it. Play with that idea.
Possibly the more effective as campaign would hammer away at who really supports Trump. Introduce Trump's "forgotten man" base to the oligarchs and billionaires who truly stand to gain from a second Trump term, and how the little people Trump calls his base of support will actually be forgotten when the ultra rich retake power.
Pull the curtain back on the people running Trump and the Republicans at all levels while also showing how Democrats have the people's interests at heart and have demonstrated that priority over the entirety of Biden's term.
Educate voters instead of dishing out propaganda. Treat the people as if they are intelligent, and you might find out that they are.
Re “intelligent” people, I used to think that was the case. Now I’m not convinced there are enough of them, but if “educating” = enlightening them to current efforts by Biden Adm, I think thats what my aten Seconds is about
Have you read "The Persueders," by Anand Giridharadas? Excellent book on effective messaging.
"The Persuaders"
Sandy. You can edit your post by clicking on the 3 horizontal dots just below and to the right of your post.
Yes. And guess what? We can band together and get some of this done. How about a Go Fund Me for political ads like this? It's not my strength, but for someone who knows how to do this, I bet we can raise the money. Personally, I love and support The Lincoln Project, and they target their ads to "the others" to shame them, so I don't use it for my own circles of friends and acquaintances because it's too "in your face" for me personally to retain credibility as a thoughtful thinker. So, we don't need to duplicate that approach but I like your idea, Dave. Let's do that (and I mean, would you spearhead that project?)
My “spearheading” reach is extremely limited, but I’ll ponder what it would take flesh out
I wonder about that 'home phone' polling... my land line (which is really VOIP now) only gets calls from telemarketers. Never had.one pollster call.
Mike S, thank you for your simple-sounding explanation of how polls are conducted. It's no wonder the polls don't make any sense. One would think no-one would trust numbers coming out of such an anachronistic (mid-20th century?) process for gauging what any given percentage of "likely voters" are likely to do. It would be fascinating to see some actual research about what determines who answers their land-line anymore, why they do and what impels them to take the time to answer questions on a survey, let alone how the pollers formulate the wording of their questions.
Yep. My 25 year old twins and zero of their friends have ever been “polled”.
Mike, neither my sons nor their wives have ever been polled. They’re in their 30s, I’m in my 70s. I gave up a land line when I no longer needed it for internet service. I occasionally get a mail-in poll, but never about political candidates. It’s more than just the “younger than us”.
I also gave up my landline and I'm in my eighties.
Mike, Beau of the Fifth Column has a recent good clip about polls. He noted that at this point in the election cycle, in 2015, guess who was leading the polls?
BEN CARSON
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBs2tgfVRpE
This doesn't mean we don't have our work cut out for us, but as Beau says, its too far out.
Ben who??? LOL
Mike S, I've posted this months (years?) ago, I will do it again for people who might not have seen it.
In 2020, I did TONS of polls. There are several websites I am aware of, but the one I was entertaining myself with during COVID is Surveyjunkie.com. You actually are PAID to do surveys. Trust me, you won't get rich on them--they generally pay point that equal anything form 15 cents to a buck for answering a poll. You can then trade in your points for gift cards or cash deposited into a bank account. Some people like to do computer games, I liked to do this.
You will be asked qualifying questions and if you meet the demographic they are looking for, and they haven't already exceeded the number they want, you will be picked. There is a lot of political polls, polls about new products, polls about services (a lot on banking) and phone companies.
I wish I could recall the name of the book, (this will be vague, sorry) but I read a recent book about numbers. One section talked about bias in polls. I was amazed to see the very questions I had answered, not realizing the bias which was obvious after it was explained to me!
One in particular has been in the news and I frequently answered it: Is the country going in the wrong direction?
A MAGA might say YES, as they are upset with Biden, with liberals, with trans people, whatever.
I would say YES, because I am upset with book banning, the SCOTUS, reproductive rights being stripped away, voter suppression.
WHO funded that poll, and how will they use that information? See what I mean?
I agree, I don't think many people answer phones. Even the internet polling will select people--I discovered that once I hit 65, I was frequently immediately eliminated when I typed in my age. (Ageism!)
“ I set out to analyze FiveThirtyEight’s collection of 400+ primary polls from the past year, closely inspecting their results and methodologies. It didn’t take long to realize that poll participants were actually reached a variety of ways.”
https://medium.com/@hassen.morad/addressing-the-landline-only-polling-myth-473dbb6d46bd
Interesting, Kathy! Thanks for sharing this!
It was interesting to me that of voters who said Biden and Trump were both too old, they favored Biden by about 60%. The ones who don’t see Trump as old puzzle me. (Oh, but he is a “fighter.” Bluster must count as putting up a fight.)
It's been way to early to depend on those horse race polls. We need a shorten versions of the election cycle.
I would love to know how the questions are formulated. That's critical to understanding the answers. In my forties I attended community college. In one class, many of us had answers that were marked wrong and it was strictly because of the way questions were phrased. Long discussion with our instructor, and our tests were corrected.
All your concerns are legit and I agree it is frightening. But the polls are two things.
First they are meaningless because they don't involve a true slice of the electorate. I have seen no evidence that the polls use a large enough survey or that they reach a true representation of the voters. Do you know anyone who has ever been surveyed? And how did that happen? A land line? If the "polls" meant anything Hillary would be wrapping up her second term in office.
Second, they are motivating. It's possible this early warning shot across the bow will redouble our efforts to achieve a Blue Trifecta.
And at the risk of being too optimistic, the GQP and their new White Nationalist Fascist House leader are in the process of giving us a boatload of campaign weapons. The more extreme and dysfunctional they are, the better it is for us. Sadly, the nation must suffer first.
I don't think we should worry one hoot what Radical Racist Republicans think. We can hope that many of them will stay home next November as they watch their hero continue to relentlessly rant nonsense - perhaps from a jail cell. And there are way more of us than them. Two whole generations lean to our values. To help with that visit www.turnup.us.
When push comes to shove, on November 5, 2024 I believe that Americans will choose any Democrat over any Republican for POTUS based on the theft of women's autonomy and the Republican corruption that is being revealed daily. The Mike Johnson rotten onion is being peeled back. Trump's wealth is being revealed as a myth and it's about to be reduced real soon by a judge in NYC who he is attacking. You can't fix stupid.
Well, Bill, I certainly hope you are right. But, again, I’m concerned that this will not be a “fair fight” b/c the election process itself has been corrupted. In my estimation, the real “villains” in the drift toward authoritarian rule are the Republican Party enablers who whisper their discontent with Trump in off-the-record comments but are sniveling cowards when asked to speak out publicly. The “true believers” will not be turned by logic or facts. They are angry sycophants who love how Trump voices their hate.
It's my decent hope that the "true believers", while loud, will prove to be a small minority when votes are cast, and that their lasting legacy will be to motivate the majority to protect their mandate and the country's interests by coming to the polls in large numbers. If that happens, we will have three loudmouths, and the polls and news reports that overrepresent them, to thank.
Great and encouraging message Bill. Thanks!
“You can't fix stupid“ Ah a Ron White fan I see. 😃
“White Nationalist Fascist House leader” I prefer the title “Fascist Theocratic House leader”.
I recently read of one problem with all polling is the folk who would change many statistics are the same people who ignore those telephone calls from anonymous sources who often are the pollers
I would be surprised if as many as 1/4 of the HCR group were ever polled and even less volunteer to be polled.
It’s impossible to devise any method of getting any cross section of American Views as a result. I suspect the result is the suggestion a thug could resume destroying Democracy.
All said, true. But, the lingering reality coming from the ineptitude of the Mike's pals is the growing feeling of confidence brewing within that Democrats will be blamed for failure of government going into November because they will not vote for legislation to reduce debt, regardless of the poison pills such legislation contains. Nothing like disarray to get voters to through the bums (majority party) out in a presidential election year. Project 2025 will rise from the rubble of America this cast of crypto-nihlists are bent upon yielding through these means.
My 40 year old son keeps saying, "Biden is too old!!!" He doesn't understand what REAL leadership looks like. I told him that he he wanted to have any rights at all, come 2024 he'd damn well better vote blue. Joe Biden is a decent person. He is not a mentally ill criminal, who has less integrity than a gnat. This upside down world we have now can make a person crazy!
Maybe you should get your son to watch HCR's interview at the LBJ library. It's on You Tube, and she makes the point that Biden has performed spectacularly for an "old man." He is the only US president to have gone into a war zone, and he's gone into two! (I don't know if your son is nervous about Kamila, but yesterday, I saw Stacy Abrahms speak about the prejudice against her as a Black woman, and I have to wonder if she doesn't have a point.)
Great suggestion, thanks!
It’s our culture! An 80 year old Scorsese gets praised for his lively create juices that produced “Killers of the Flower Moon,” while a younger much more involved and active President gets stereotyped as “too old.”
Jenn. Biden is too old.
That said, so is Trump.
They seem to be the majority in Texas and, no doubt, elsewhere.
Texas is a mirror of USA, the GQP strongly controls the rural vote and strongly influences the exurban & suburban vote through fear, lies and conspiracy while the DNC strongly controls the urban vote.
The GQP is in power and doing everything they can to remain there. The Democrats and Independents need to register, educate, support and vote in order to take back at least a VOICE in the government.
Thought that would happen when chump was no longer behind the presidential podium. Thanks to traitor MCCarthy, it didn’t
If women is those countries had access to a termination * of an unwanted pregnancy and they weren't brain washed and controlled by their religion, there would be better economies and less young people with no jobs.
*....I wish they would stop using the term "abortion" ...it's has negative connotations: like an ugly thing...or, a completely wrong thing.
AND, BTW: I didn't desire, ask for or approve a personal substack!
Judith, I’m trying to respond to your question about my comment generally about Blinken’s recent attempted negotiations for humanitarian pauses, decreased pummeling so that hostages might be released and humanitarian aid allowed to pass into Gaza. You linked Consortium News 📰 and I asked if it were MSM; that was a knee jerk response, so sorry if I offended. Just wondered about validity as it was quite negative to our current administration. Thinking further, more likely to be junk news if MSM owned by the wealthy seeking profit not truth. So difficult to trust sources; believe you said another you were paying for presumably in quest for truth not clickbait. Truth in news reporting should be free as it once was but is no longer. Like everything else it’s about the 💰💰💰. If I am putting in thoughts not yours, please forgive. Writing from memory as cannot locate original post in threads.
BTW:....I am not offended by anything. ....... I pay for many news sources...the NY Times since early '90's when I got it delivered to my door in NYC. Now, I throw $$ at many news sources, because it's my "religion"; I believe journalism saves us. It has come to my attention, given I only paid attention to art and theater, books, that the powers that be are lying to us and ripping us off. You mentioned the "wealthy" I think it's un-American to be wealthy....they should be taxed to get a large part of that wealth back into the GD system. They only got it because they were lucky to be in the USA....or, like many in other countries: crooks and/or corrupt.
The Article was "quite negative to our current administration"...You betcha! Our current administration is saying what is politically expedient. The real truth does not matter. oh well, "Civilians always suffer in a "war", which this is not. This is bombing a concentration camp/prison...... I started studying this with Norman Finkelstein, then Ilan Pappe...and on and on. Those 2 are enough but I will continue to learn about this...I have Jimmy Carter's book Palestine, Peace or apartheid", my local English language library. ( living in Merida, Mexico. ) It's been most of my every waking hour. My X says, 'you can't do anything about it; you can't change anything". That does not mean I can't learn everything about it. I am amazed at how many don't know ...anything....it takes a lot of time and interest to begin to form a coherent opinion. 1000 little pieces so far. I am combining what I have recently learned with experiences over the last 60 years to form what I think about Israel. I'll just say this: it's predictable.
Journalism as your religion. I understand that. There are many sources I do not trust; many within Substack that I do. The impotence to do anything other than learn, share what you find and know is frustrating. We all should be better informed about the Mid East but I fear many don’t take the effort to learn more. The conflict caught me completely off guard when as you say, it was predictable. It’s been brewing forever. I noted too in the things I read, it is precisely bombing a concentration camp of innocents who have no exit. Apparently there are terrorists taking cover among civilians and that is truly heinous. I hope you will share some of those thousand pieces and your experience with those of us who do care and want to know more. In whatever way suits you. I can barely wrap my head around the pain those caught in the fray must be feeling. I read and saw a photo of a journalist who was reporting on an attack in a supposed safe area, one to which he and his family had moved to as instructed, where, unknown to him, his entire family was wiped out, Aljazeera I think. The heartbreak on his face was one of those photos that will stay with me
forever. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this, another very tragic night. 💔🕊️