With the constant corruption, self-dealing, and norm-breaking during the Trump years, news of his targeting civil servants never received adequate attention. I'm glad Heather has shined light on the topic.
It's another chilling warning: America as we know it will end should Trump somehow manage to regain the White House. Same is true of …
With the constant corruption, self-dealing, and norm-breaking during the Trump years, news of his targeting civil servants never received adequate attention. I'm glad Heather has shined light on the topic.
It's another chilling warning: America as we know it will end should Trump somehow manage to regain the White House. Same is true of his wannabes.
The stellar work of the J6 committee shows signs of waking the nation, along with a Supreme Court intent on destroying hard-won freedoms. But I'd like to see some polling regarding how many Americans truly understand we're on the precipice and what's at stake.
Through journalists, such as Jonathan Swan, Michael Schmidt, Carol Lenning, Robert Woodward, Robert Costa...so many good journalists and historians, Heather Cox Richardson, Anne Applebaum, Timothy Snyder....so many fine historians have educated and warned us. Remember all the great books we have read telling us where the country is headed. Trump and his hench mob are not sneaking up on us in the dark of night. Our job is to find the means to spread the word. The American people must be awakened. We cannot survive if social media and Fox News control the space. We must find ways to break their hold.
Folks who are committed to being ignorant and are proud of it are boring fools. They know that they are being led around by their noses by big money grifters. They haven’t figured out that the junk they are buying into for “free” is being used to fleece them. They want to “believe” not learn. That’s why I pay for Heather’s work and that of Propublica. I also donate to Wikipedia because I use it a lot. The New York Review of Books is invaluable. One of the surest signs of a good mind and intellectual courage is the ability to see and inquire about that which is NOT in the picture. I need regular help with that! These brutal and criminal GOP years have forced us all to sharpen our skills, to ask the questions. I think that the January 6th hearings have reminded us how that is done.
Throughout history, those 'boring fools' have enabled despots to come to power, and those with 'a good mind and intellectual courage' have suffered. While we are 'sharpening our skills,' they are sharpening their knives. Awareness is insufficient unless and until it leads to action.
This morning, I completed and mailed the last of 100 personalized postal cards to selected voters in the Arizona Senate race. Tonight, I start on a similar list in Nevada. These are the kinds of 'actions' we should be taking. Visit www.activateamerica.vote to find out how you can swing into action.
Jack, I salute you for this effort. I should do this again soon as well. Did hand write 25 postcards on behalf of New Mexico dems to Native Americans on how to stay on the vote by mail list. There, you get cut off that list if you don’t do a bunch of stuff in just the right time.
Battling the Big Lie by Dan Pfeiffer a Democratic Party strategist and wordsmith is another good account of how we got here, what's being done, and what can be done. He was interviewed on a Politics Girl podcast.
Agree. And we have about fifteen weeks left to do it. Those who follow the words of these journalists and historians are already aware of the crisis the nation faces, but that's not enough. It's time to activate the voices of those to whom the non-politically concerned of the country pay attention, the singers, entertainers, the TV hosts, the sports stars, and in a unifying, not a divisive, way. They have to be convinced to risk their careers as did the Paul Robesons and Jane Fondas of their time.
Yes. Strategic postcard writing, and I'll add canvassing and donations are ways that we can help. But our efforts alone may not be enough to secure the votes we need. I think it's show time for those with far-reaching voices. Neil Young stepped up yesterday to say that he will not perform during the pandemic. His statement was widely broadcasted. He, and others, could proclaim that they are grateful to live in a country where they are free to voice their opinions without fear of being silenced by an authoritarian government. Any music producers in
Washington Post in-depth article about the Claremont Institute🧐. Under the cover of academia the radical right has apparently been attracting and grooming their ilk to place in government positions. 🤯
Right FERN, so many fine historians & journalists. Must mention Betsy Woodruff Swan & The Guardian's young Hugo Lowell at their DC Office. The Guardian has wide Global reach & can be contacted securely through their "HELP CENTER " Submissions accepted. Many LFAA Commenters capable.
Agree Fern. And yet. If people by now don't care what a monster TFG is no amount of information if going to matter. Here is an example. In 2020 we were actually hiding in our homes. We had no masks, no vaccine etc. People were dying all around us. If that didn't get people's attention I don't know what will.
Jordan and his fellow cult members are also making it very clear they will impeach Biden, Harris and Pelosi and install TFG as Speaker. They intend to prosecute the January 6 Committee members.
I wonder. How much is the messaging a failing of the Biden Administration and the DNC?
This is almost insulting Fern. I have been involved in politics for 50 years. I am very aware and have/are involved in number of these groups in addition to some you have not listed. I wasn't speaking to my voice. It is myopic to not call the President, the Biden Administration and other leading Democrats to task for messaging. Where is the hoopla on the work being done courtesy of the Infrastructure Act? Buttigieg appears to be a voice crying the wilderness at this point.
And I caution any overtly politically active people commenting on this site to please avoid the appearance of talking down to or lecturing others. Sometimes people just need to be heard; not called to action.
'And I caution any 'overtly' politically active people commenting on this site to please avoid the appearance of talking down to or lecturing others.' Any more 'friendly and supportive encouragement' from you, Barbara M. would be appreciated.
First. I did add a "thank you" to my original comment. I will say it in a different way. Thank you for your work. The organizations you listed do good work. Maybe someone will choose a couple. After many years my personal journey with political activism has evolved to where I tread lightly when around others who are not politically active and don't want to be. I have put people off before by being too forceful thus ending up doing more harm than good. What I realized is political activism is just not for everyone nor is talking politics for everyone. So we chop wood and carry water often receiving little to no thanks. Sometimes we lend comfort not confrontation nor call to duty. That sometimes nudges a door open for thoughtful discourse.
Barbara, I scrolled through quickly to be helpful in the short time that I had. It was impossible for me to read between the lines or remember the service that each subscriber was engaged in.
Then why write a demeaning response at all, Fern, if you do not have the information to write something meaningful? Please stop thinking of yourself as somehow having insight superior to others. It is really quite tiresome.
Thank you for the lists, Fern. There were some of which I was not aware. I'm rather new to the political arena. It took trump to make pay attention. At least he was useful for one thing!
Ricia, You are the useful one. I have learned a good deal about the country by participating on this forum and working with others in grassroots organizations whose goals are to turn this country into a democracy that supports all of us. Welcome! I am happy that you are here. It is a wonderful community learning more everyday from Heather Cox Richardson and from each other.
Steve Schmidt (The Warning), also on substack, wrote yesterday about the Axios series by Jonathan Swan. After reading Swan I was depressed for the rest of the day. My hope focusses on Merrick Garland.
Steve Schmidt (The Warning), also on substack, wrote yesterday about the Axios series by Jonathan Swan. After reading Swan I was depressed for the rest of the day. My hope focusses on Merrick Garland.
I would not trust polling. So far no one has reached me at home for a poll. That is because I do not answer random calls. Who are these pollers even reaching at this point? My elderly mother, who has had a stroke, and who gets tricked by callers and whom I have asked not to talk to strangers, is the only one I know who still takes calls from strangers. How are these polls finding people at this point? That is what I would like to know before I want to find out what they have to say. Who is answering the polls?
I do appreciate that Dr. Richardson details what is at stake here. It is a dystopian future that we appear to be hurtling towards like the space ship in Lost in Space, seemingly out of our control. I vote, I can work for campaigns, within limits I can donate money, I can write to papers, I can join protest marches, I can speak up, but I still have the sinking feeling that most people are ostriches. They have their heads in the sand and do not want to deal with the reality of the situation. I am frustrated by how many people I am surrounded by who basically do not want to talk about anything unpleasant. These are people who are staunchly against Trump. However, they are not going to worry about him winning again or spend much time thinking about what might happen that is bad until it happens, and then I am again going to be around depressed people, except that several of my friends and I mostly see each other in choir which is joyous or doing refugee work, which also has its rewards. For the most part they are just concerned with raising children, family vacations, getting their children into good colleges and the day to day stuff of life.
Polling was not reliable in the last two elections. I don’t respond to any sort of “poll” online as I do not know who the groups are. In the age of cell phones, it’s challenging to poll people. The poll that matters is the election.
I think the corrupt people in office count on people’s lack of attention. They pass terrible laws in the dead of night that get no publicity until they are passed and do terrible harm. So many people might have thought things would be less crazy if tRump were voted out. How has that worked so far?
We have a false front democracy, sort of like a movie set. The plutocratic robber barons control the politicians they have purchased with big campaign donations. Look up the billionaires Dunn and Wilks in Texas who are funding extreme right candidates who want to go right back to the Gilded Age.
Things are a lot less crazy wit trump out, and Biden in. From Yesterday's HCR:
Biden has defended democracy across the globe, accomplishing more in foreign diplomacy than any president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Less than a year after the former president threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken pulled together the NATO countries, as well as allies around the world, to stand against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The new strength of NATO prompted Sweden and Finland to join the organization, and earlier this month, NATO ambassadors signed protocols for their admission. This is the most significant expansion of NATO in 30 years.
Love or hate what Biden has done, he has managed to pull a wide range of countries together to stand against Russian president Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian attack in Ukraine, and he has managed get through a terribly divided Congress laws to make the lives of the majority better, even while Republicans are rejecting the idea that the government should reflect the will of the majority. That is no small feat.
When I retired, somehow I found out about online surveys which pay minimal amounts for your opinions. There are a number of them out there but the one I found to be trustworthy is surveyjunkie.com. Like other people do online gaming for fun, I like to do the polls. There are many for financial institutions, fast food, internet providers, and often politics. I love those ones as I really like to give bad ratings on certain politicians of the red sort! ;)
You need to sign up for surveyjunkie.com and log on daily for polls. You accrue points that can be exchanged for gift cards or cash, my preference. It is directly deposited into my bank account in a few days.
I can't recall how, but through surveyjunkie.com, I had an opportunity to sign up for YouGov. Those polls are by invitation which is sent to the email you provide. I sometimes read news about polls and realize that I was one of the people polled.
I never answer phone calls that I do not recognize.
Miselle, online surveys are notoriously unreliable, because they cannot meet even the most basic criteria for validity. Plus the main purpose of most of them is to gather info for marketing. The results are not applicable too the real world, and in the meantime you are giving over your personal information for pay. Think about that. Would you trust a poll you knew got its "information" in that way?
My comment was not as to whether or not polls are reliable, I was answering (once again) the query as to "who are they polling, who answers phone calls from numbers they don't know".
As for giving away my personal information for pay, at least it's ME getting the pay, as opposed to social media selling my data. And, btw, most of the surveys are for my opinions on products/services, not political polls.
My logical mind can't wrap my head around the idea that 1541 people could be an accurate representation of views on ANY subject. Good grief. How do they find these folks? Why such a tiny number? And to your point, who picks up the phone when a strange number calls? It is almost always from "Sarah" or "Rachel" who are selling a credit card or auto warranties.
And I find it quite true in my little circle of existence that folks are so exhausted from TFG and his robotic followers and their conspiracies and lies, that they just shut down and think about their personal challenges. Of which we all have many...
That is what the fascists (we need to use this word!) are hoping for. That they will have more "participants" - despite the fact that they are outnumbered. We need to risk pissing off our family and friends by ringing the alarm loudly and frequently. This is our version of pre-WWII Germany.
Bill - Well-designed national polls typically use samples of around 1500 people. With a sample of that size the margin of error is around 3-4% at a 95% confidence level, almost no matter the size of the total population (e.g., 300,000,000 for the U.S., 8 billion or so for the whole world), as long as it is "large". What that means is that, in 95% of all samples of size 1500 (approx.), the proportion in the sample (such as "approve of Biden") will be within about 3 or 4% of the "true" proportion in the entire population. This type of result can be found in any elementary statistics textbook. But there is one "clinker" in this subject: the sample has to be chosen "at random", which has a specific technical meaning. Legitimate pollsters work hard to achieve random sampling, with varying degrees of success. As we've seen in recent polls, things can go awry for a variety of reasons. For a good historical example, the 1936 Literary Digest poll badly underestimated the support for Roosevelt (described in detail in The Public Opinion Quarterly, 52(1), Spring, 1988), pp. 125-133, and, if I remember correctly, Freedman, Pisani, and Purves, Statistics). Emphasis on the word 'legitimate'. So the statistical theory is correct; it's reality that's wrong.
Addendum - Some time ago I also posted a note to the effect that the probability of any particular person being included in a polling sample is tiny. So the argument that "polls are wrong because I've never been included in one" doesn't hold water. (Someone said this, in effect, above.) Also, I didn't give the specific numbers in my comments, but they can be worked out. It's freshman college or perhaps even high school statistics.
J Horowitz, I understand how the stats in a poll work and the necessity of a random sampling which random calling does not work, since many people will screen their calls. It is not the 1950s when everyone just answered the phone making it more random. That is still a poor example since in the 1950s not everyone had a phone. That would be the problem today too. You still would not get a true sampling of our population by calling because many people do not answer the phone, or they do not all have one. My point was illustrative of behavior of people who screen their calls versus people with brain damage like my mother who does not remember to do that all the time. So, I was not saying I have never been called, but rather most people who are careful do not answer telephone calls of people they don't know. So, polls need the trust of the sample, and that is going to be hard to gain. A trusting sample is not a random sample. In my graduate program in school psychology we studied sampling and polls. I have been attending a series of workshops through Northwestern this summer where they have been discussing communication bias, and I personally do not choose to participate in things that are slanted to support these sorts of biases. Also, I don't participate in research where the participants do not get any feedback. I am part of a university where I have ample opportunity to participate in research and there we are generally offered access to the research at some point, or I feel that what it is doing is important. A discussion of political polling by a researcher who presented this summer, was very troubling. It was not about looking for what is good for people but about racist, sexist, pro-Christian, homophobic labeling of people into types and anti-types. What bothers me about people calling over the phone is who knows whether the person calling is really a representing a legitimate poll. They could be someone trying to figure out what are the beliefs are in your particular home, and whether or not to harass you for those beliefs. You don't want your home or phone suddenly to be a target for who knows what sort of aggression. Also, you don't want your phone to be a target of right wing harassment. When my cell phone says likely scam those calls are avoided and we have a landline too. Unless we recognize the number it does not get answered. The rare exception is when we hear the landline ring and then one our cell phones, because we figure it is someone legitimate trying to get ahold of us. After a half a year of workshops on all of the anti democratic things that technology can be used for I am choosy, that does not mean I don't understand polls. The phone is a tool that can be used for a lot of things and not all of them are good.
Linda Wade: pollsters don’t rely on one phone number. If you don’t answer, they keep trying numbers in different area codes all over the country until someone does answer and responds. This actually adds to the randomness and offers greater likelihoods. Polls are not absolute numbers. They illustrate probabilities. Last minute high impact variables can skew the probabilities. In the absence of polling, you can always make wild guesses or count tea leaves or shake bones or just have no idea. Polls may be off, but they are rarely dead wrong. After voting polls rely on honesty. As people are becoming inured to lying as a no no, the after vote polls are reflecting the dishonesty in the country more than election probabilities IMHO.
Linda W - I see that Ann F has answered part of your comment (below). You raise many valid points; most of them are also true of Internet polling (via social media, etc.), and even to direct interview and mail polls. Some biases can be ameliorated, if not eliminated, by statistical adjustments of different kinds (which is not the same as "fudging" the results). There are many different types of bias that people try hard to address in the design of polls. In addition, as you point out, there are nefarious uses of polls and of personal information gathered in the conduct of some polls (not legitimate ones) so that one has to be cautious. My original post was about the theory that underlies polls; of course I only gave a snippet. It's actually quite complicated, far beyond my pay grade. These other issues arise in the practice of polling in the real world, whereas statistical theory is solid.
I just can't imagine how "randomly selecting" 1500 people can possibly be meaningfully accurate when we don't see how that selection is made or the mechanics of the survey is not clearly explained. What if 1000 of those 1500 called never vote? What if 300 of them just had a bad day and responded in an atypical manner?
"Legitimate pollsters work hard to achieve random sampling, with varying degrees of success." Random suggests a certain chaos to me. So a pollster flings questions at a few people and then wraps some sort statistical theory around it to suggest that it's reasonably accurate?
And I wonder how many pollsters don't publish a poll because they don't think the results fit their expectations or are not news worthy, etc.
You bring up (mostly) valid points, but they are questions about "reality" (which, note, I said was "wrong" -- I hope I don't have to say I was being facetious), not about statistics. The problems you mention are connected with the drawing of a random sample. Sometimes, by mistake or design, the wrong population is sampled, for instance "all" as opposed to "people that intend to vote". A good randomization protocol should "average out" people that are having a bad day, although under Covid, that could be a lot of people. These are some of the practical difficulties in polling; there are many others. And, of course, if 95% of samples are "good" (i.e., give a result accurate to within the margin of error), there are still 5% that are "bad", and you can't know whether the sample you actually got is one of the 95% good or 5% bad. (To know that, you'd have to know the value of the quantity that you're trying to find out.) A pollster who "flings questions at a few people" and "wraps some sort statistical theory around it to suggest that it's reasonably accurate" is not legitimate. One other technical point: "random sample" has a technical definition, and doesn't mean "chaotic" in some sense, although common parlance may suggest that. (There's also a technical definition of chaos that means more than just the everyday notion of chaos.) One thing "random sampling" does NOT mean is that you go out on the street and take the first 1500 people that pass by as your sample. Again, there's a technical meaning and there are difficulties in obtaining a sample in the real world that adheres to that definition. Incidentally, the same problems regarding random sampling arise in obtaining subjects for clinical trials and assigning them to "treatment" or "control". All of this is discussed ad nauseam in the statistical literature. Speaking of which, it's time for me to shut up.
I hear you Linda. We are going fast down the rabbit hole of “doomerism” which breeds depression and apathy. There is so much ground given to Trump and the Republican Party by the amount of fear, disgust, AND allegiance literally blasted on front page space to him in every newspaper. Today in my paper, the front page is dedicated to Sen Scott (FL) “leading takeover effort” of the US Senate. Articles about DeSantis and Trump squaring off for a fight two years away. Local Republican efforts to gain local seats. Presence of Nazi organizations at Turning Point conference in Tampa at which DeSantis, Gaetz, and the usuals as keynote speakers. Signs everywhere deriding President Biden and his administration.
It has consumed the country along with overshadowing positive reports of what our CURRENT president is doing. If I read one more thing about Pres Biden’s average at best orator skills or Atty Gen Garland missing in action or “afraid” to prosecute a former president, I might have to hide under the covers. Not because all of this is not scary. But because I find little support for not being afraid and finding little support for optimism which breeds action and a refusal to succumb to the Republican cudgel of domination and corporate greed.
What is relevant to me is my voice that will give an inch to making Trump and the Republicans irrelevant. I will not support Republicans or any person supporting fascism. I turn my eyes away from any picture of him. I speak of Democracy and the common good of it and the unity that prevails because of it. There is no opposite of Light. And my words that are heard by the Universe speak of good and Love that always prevails. Don’t get me wrong. I am a warrior for our Democracy and fierce in my actions to value it.
Even a day of not mentioning or hearing fascist schemes is a day of victory for me. That always leads me to believe we are talking about the right things.
Hopefully this Axios series will be enlightening, wake people up. I have heard about it in a couple of places now. I think it's something that most people could see is scary.
I'm sorry about your home, Suz. I can't imagine, although my home had a lot of R saluting going on. From what I've seen, even some/many D folks are tuned out, not aware of the threat, think now that Trump is out of the WH, he's done, no point in dwelling on him anymore.
Last week I had a call from a ‘research’ company that I chose to answer, and it was a polling company. From the phrasing of the questions they were Republican biased and I did challenge several questions and said that I thought their statements were misleading.
Anyway, all my answers were pro Democracy and anti Republicans. I live in the Phoenix area and all the Republican candidates are so far to the right it’s frightening.
I wonder what they did with your answers. Did they offer to share feedback on their poll with you or give you some means of knowing what they were going to do with the information they were gathering over the phone?
Yes I am not confident the majority of Not MAGA Americans have a gut sense of the gravity of the peril we are in as a Democracy. I hope the J6 committee will enlighten us equally.
Another concern I share with you, I believe, is that it’s one thing to have a gut sense of the gravity of the peril we are in as a democracy, and it’s another thing to be mobilized to work with others to create a coherent and coordinated response. This is so much a war of public opinion. And with so many Republicans apparently quite willing to accept authoritarianism in order to pursue their agenda and consolidate a lockstep on power, our integrated and principled hard work needs to be fully enacted right down to the grassroots. That level of commitment to stand up and make oneself heard in a climate of increasing surveillance and manipulation in the realm of social media will require people with the same level of sophistication as Bannon but with genuine integrity.
Couldn’t agree more, so worried about Dems lack of the killer instinct (or self-preservation). Republicans have both in spades. The young can save us, along with women who get it, and people of color who certainly should.
Thanks, Jeri, for sharing these thoughts. I actually had written something along these lines, (re what younger thinkers can bring to the table) but my commentary above was so lengthy that I ended up cutting and pasting it to become a separate, more recent comment just a few minutes ago.
Could not agree more with this Alison Scott. The sitting around feeling bad for Biden & Co and being afraid is a recipe certain to put Trump in office. Compromise on key issues, supporting moderation and organizing and doing what is necessary to put forward a credible candidate that has a chance of winning is what matters now. People in Dr. Richardson's world are already scared and upset. So what? How do we stop the real-time collapse of the Democratic party we are witnessing?
Sabrina, Apparently a majority of MAGA folks have locked on to their truth, driven by the "alternate facts" of Fox, Kellyanne Conway, Rudy et all, and they are steadfast in what they have chosen to believe. A few of these people I happen to know are adamant in their belief that we are not in danger. Their minds are made up and are closed to anything that might be referred to as enlightenment. "The J6 Committee is just a made up attempt to damage Trump."
Richard, unfortunately I have to agree with you on the "minimally educated" contingent. And then there are the ones that choose to remain oblivious but still vote.
How does this matter Sabrina? As others in this post have explained, 75% of the country isn't even watching the Jan 6th hearings. Incredible but true.
The sitting around feeling bad for Biden & Co and being afraid is a recipe certain to put Trump in office. Compromise on key issues, supporting moderation and organizing and doing what is necessary to put forward a credible candidate that has a chance of winning is what matters now. People in Dr. Richardson's world are already scared and upset. So what? How do we stop the real-time collapse of the Democratic party we are witnessing?
Approximately 4% of Republicans polled have changed their mind and won’t vote for Trump based on J6 Hearings. We need 7% of Independents to switch away from Trump. The Hearings are not over. We are well within winning the midterms if. We get a Blue Wave. Women of all races are going to turn out for sure. We need men of all races to do the same. The youth vote has to get going! Keep reminding your kids to register and vote. Help your parents and grands. Make sure they are registered and applied for a mail in ballot. If each of us looked out for others, we could and will win the midterms, then on to ‘24.
That is a lot of independents and I don't think Jan 6th is the trick but my heart is with you. Believe we better see a major turnout by the lazy middle so to speak. Love the passion.
That would be especially nice, but not likely. B did so well in 2020 because of Wjitevand Black wome. He won Hispanic but not as much as he should have. Men of all races didn’t turn out for him as much as White men did for Trump, if I remember correctly.
The State Department was gutted under Pompeo. TFG's administration set a course to lie to some countries, who knew they were being lied to. Many Foreign Service Officers left on their own because of this. Many more were pushed out. For a greater understanding of what our Diplomatic corps does, I commend to you the memoir of Marie Yovanovitch. You will come to understand the loss and the years it will take to recover. Their service is no less dangerous (and often more; e.g. Christopher Stevens) than military personnel without the benefits of veteran status.
I finished her book yesterday. Her beloved mother and biggest champion got sick and died during her travails with tfg’s administration. Yet she persisted. The emotional toll on her was beyond belief. These are the ppl tfg wants out of government.
Also excellent is the memoir by Fiona Hill, the Ukraine expert who was summarily fired by Trump for daring to speak out about and refuse to cooperate with his attempt to blackmail President Zelensky into supporting Trump’s smear campaign against the Bidens.
'Poll: Half of Americans now predict U.S. may 'cease to be a democracy' someday'
'A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that most Democrats (55%) and Republicans (53%) now believe it is “likely” that America will “cease to be a democracy in the future” — a stunning expression of bipartisan despair about the direction of the country.'
'Half of all Americans (49%) express the same sentiment when independents and those who do not declare any political affiliation are factored in, while just a quarter (25%) consider the end of U.S. democracy unlikely and another quarter (25%) say they’re unsure.'
'At the same time, however, a large number of Americans seem indifferent to the high-profile hearings by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol — an effort to get to the bottom of one of the most dramatic assaults on the democratic process in U.S. history.'
'In fact, the new survey of 1,541 U.S. adults — which was conducted from June 10 (the day after the committee’s first hearing) to June 13 (the day of its second) — found that fewer than 1 in 4 (24%) say they watched last Thursday’s initial primetime broadcast live. Only slightly more (27%) say they caught news coverage later. Nearly half (49%) say they did not follow the hearings at all.'(Yahoo) See link below.
Thanks for this. The sad truth is that much of the country has never been politically engaged. And now with Covid, inflation, income disparity, and so on, many people are simply struggling to stay afloat. They take for granted freedoms that are under dire threat.
Great. So what needs doing to get the vote out? Many Americans are focused on paying their bills. No matter how fiercely I believe Jan 6th is "the issue" it is not relevant unless the work there helps us avoid Trump '24.
What are the issues that matter to the swing voters that matter in the upcoming election?
Votefwd.org allows us to write letters to registered Democrats who rarely vote. The letters are to be mailed at the end of October. I have 60 finished and bought 300 forever stamps before the price rise.
Me, too. Have done 50 even though I'm not 100% convinced that they'll be very effective. Dr. Richardson encourages us to talk to people around us and post truthful articles, etc. Unfortunately, I live overseas and am very much in a very liberal bubble. So I write these letters.
I did some for 2021 and have signed up for 120 for October; may do more. I highlight the reasons for voting-good jobs, education, safety nets (Social Security/ Medicare/ Healthcare/ affordable meds, etc),voting rights, healthier environment
Agree but having engaged with Trump-wingers there is no dissuading them of anything.
It is the moderates that need to be won and they do not, understandably, tolerate parties that are in charge with soaring inflation and raging gasoline prices.
Barbara, Often, new subscribers and others who are ready to get out the vote and spread the word appreciate suggestions of groups to work with. Ellie does that a lot, but she hasn't been around for the last week or so. Suggestions from you with a line about the strength of each organization could be part of the education process that you mentioned. Cheers!
We can see this all around us. I just had a friend who teaches speech at a college in Texas WhatsApp me. He was given the go ahead to grow a podcast class which is the perfect opportunity to grow an audience and light fires to protect abortion rights, lbgtq+ rights, racial equality, climate change, and saving our democracy. He tossed these off as though they are nothing and asked me if I had ideas. Sigh. I suggested he watch and listen to Politics Girl.
It is obvious the ignorant and disaffected serve the active ideological virtual conspirators like the Trumpian Congress people and State Level Republican Operatives.
I’ll not let up on describing the result as a metastasized cancer that has invaded the cells in every level and aspect of the American Politic.
With a corrupted SCOTUS and dormant US Senate it seems to me a time for hyper activity in elections and in litigation.
I believe with the Natures Trust Principle that the Rights of Mankind precede and transcend Government. The Trump/Fascist corruption now invades the minds of significant parts of American Citizens aided by the jelling of the attention span of Fox News Addicts.
To recapture the promise of Government by and for the people will require a paradigm shift by the Liberal and Independent who must form antagonism and confrontation as a tool.
In the past six years the “other side,” from the Democrats has ushered in a brief era of Destructive Government, played with citizenship principles that caused millions of people to die deaths that vaccines could have averted and now are poised to slide in parallel Government similar to the Nazi use of the structures of the Weimar Republic to seize power.
I read the above and am thrilled! 167 m voted in the last election. Can I think that maybe 40 million actually watched the first Hearing? Probably not but 24% is damn good. I read 21 million watched the most recent hearing on the mainstream channels. That did not include those who streamed or, like me, watched on PBS ( antenna users). So 21 m is an undercount. Approximately 4 m watched Fox News. The problem with a lot of pessimists is not just that they don’t believe the polling but they also don’t have a mathematical mind so can’t really make sense of them. It is very fashionable with the talking heads to pan polls, too, because they want you to believe them. In my book, if you are going to make choices about what to believe and not believe, don’t believe actors or pseudo actors on TV. Read!
"His approval rating of 39 percent1 is now the worst of any elected president at this point in his presidency since the end of World War II, according to FiveThirtyEight’s historical presidential approval data. In other words, Biden is arguably in worse shape than any other elected president heading into his first midterm election, including his four most recent predecessors, who, like Biden, were operating in an increasingly polarized political climate."
I follow Five Thirty Eight, too. Yes, that’s what they keep harping about. But here’s another fact. Since 1980, the balance of power in Congress has remained the same in four elections. In 1994 and 2006, the majority party lost in both houses. 1994 Repubs lost both House and Senate. 2006. Dems won both House and Senate. . In the past five midterm elections, the Repubs gained control of the Senate in 2014, the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2002. The last time the Dems won back the House and didn’t win the Senate in a midterm was in 1930 when Hoover was President before this last win during the presidential. Reagan won his first election in a landslide. The House remained Dem and Sen Repub. 1982 mid terms, no change re majority, 1984 presidential Reagan won handily, Congress didn’t switch, 1986 mid terms, Dems kept the House and took the Senate, 1988 presidential election. Bush won. Congress didn’t change.
So what’s my point. My point is that Biden’s approval rating has watered down meaning for the midterms. High approval ratings don’t mean the party in power will win both houses. Lower approval ratings don’t mean they won’t.
Very thoughtful response and certainly hope there is a bit of a "blue backlash" but the historical walk-through is agnostic any current data. In statistical terms it is like being at a roulette table and seeing RED come up 5x in a row and then seeing that the likelihood of a "6 red streak" is very low meaning you should bet on BLACK. But that simply isn't the case. The probabilities are discreet with every spin. There is no causality to infer from your pattern (unfortunately).
I just rereread my comment and corrected the last word from will to won’t, plus a couple of typos. Now my comment is a long winded way of agreeing with you which is actually what i was trying to say in the first place. Thanks. You drew my attention back so i saw the error.
Great. So what needs doing to get the vote out? Many Americans are focused on paying their bills. No matter how fiercely I believe Jan 6th is "the issue" it is not relevant unless the work there helps us avoid Trump '24.
What are the issues that matter to the swing voters that matter in the upcoming election?
@Lost in Translation: Exactly. While it’s a sad fact for politically aware activists like all of us here, most people are too busy with their own lives to pay attention to the Jan6 hearings. But it’s a fact, it has been ever thus, and we need to accept it and get out in force, executing on the strategies that DO work. As you astutely point out, we need to focus on the issues that do matter to people in their own lives. And work like hell to Get Out The Vote by motivating people on the issues they personally care about. Most people don’t vote. Many on this forum have mentioned the accessible ways we can all help GOTV. For example, these organizations run targeted, research-based postcard and letter writing campaigns to registered Democrats and leaning-Dem independents, and likely-Democrats who aren’t yet registered:
Indivisible, Swing Left, Vote Forward.
Research shows that people who get a postcard or letter are much more likely to vote than people who don’t. These campaigns are great ways to reach individual voters.
Actually the last hearing had a following of more than 21 million which is a lot. That was an undercount, too, since it didn’t include streaming and PBS or C-Span.
I agree an undercount of 21 million is a lot of people. But it's still a small minority of the U.S. registered voter population. According to the U.S. Census, the total citizen population in Nov. 202 was 231,593,000. The total who reported they were registered voters was 168,308,000 with 25,782,000 who reported as not registered and 37,503,000 who didn't respond to that question. The total who reported they actually voted was 154,628,000 with 36,404,000 who didn't respond on whether they vote. So unless 21 million is an extreme undercount, less that 13% of registered voters watched that last hearing. I stand by my statement that most people are so preoccupied with their own lives--either because it takes all their energy just to survive, or because they are surviving fine but just don't bother--that they don't follow politics and rarely or never vote.
As I said in my post, it’s tempting to try to apply the 23% to the known electorate from the presidential election, 87 mill plus to 80 mill plus, but it’s apples and oranges because mid terms are traditionally low turn out elections and the last presidential was unusually high in turnout. So, can we get the same demographics to turn out for the mids in higher numbers and the poor showing demos ( young adults and White males) to turn out for the mids. What I hear in these posts is I am too busy putting food on the table or being depressed. No, not really me. My friends. Does anybody remember getting two thousand extra dollars in 2020? Does it matter that the Biden economic plan has meant a steady uptick in employment to the largest job creation on a monthly basis ever? The talking heads keep telling you two quarters of inflation mean we are headed for a recession. That’s quick and easy, but not necessarily true. Plus, prices are falling. Now who ya gonna blame? I think the Dems have caught the aggrieved Republican infection.
What matters IMHO is not the number....it is the number who are actually undecided voters that are watching. And I would venture a guess the number is very very small indeed.
Maybe. But what matters is if they vote or don’t. Fence sitters do what? Listen to both sides? Wait for the wind to blow? Wait for a sign from God? My guess is they don’t do anything. .
Yahoo? Seriously? I'd love to pick that one apart, starting with how they picked 1,541 adults- which is an unrealistically small sample for this broad a survey anyway. Add in how questions are structured. Holy cow.
Deeply concerned about this. Know numerous people who decided not to move here due to the culture wars, others who have already left and still more figuring out where to go. Great post and point.
I subscribe to The Atlantic, but I know very few people who do. I've said it before in a comment to another day's post...This is a problem. Fox, Breitbart, etc are free. They are getting to the masses. Brian Klaas' article, Anne Applebaum's work, Barton Gellman's warnings and so on are not.
Many of these are available at public libraries. Reading has been replaced by watching and listening. If more people still read, they would certainly find the cost of subscriptions minimal compared to cost of losing democracy. I agree with the description of the self-obsessed American. Folks may be clamoring about the cost of gas but the highways are bumper to bumper in some areas with trave!ers. Those huge trucks burn a lot.
I lose sympathy for the complaints about gas prices when I keep seeing people sitting in their cars in parking lots with the engines running or waiting 20 minutes in a long drive up line instead of going inside, which would only take 5 minutes.
I am a tired 68 year old who works to elect progressive candidates. I accept that. Many people just don't want to volunteer. Part of my job is to try and persuade them to help. Plain and simple. Do the work because it needs to be done. Stay hopeful.
'6 in 10 Americans say U.S. democracy is in crisis as the 'Big Lie' takes root'
'One year after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Americans are deeply pessimistic about the future of democracy.'
'A new NPR/Ipsos poll finds that 64% of Americans believe U.S. democracy is "in crisis and at risk of failing." That sentiment is felt most acutely by Republicans: Two-thirds of GOP respondents agree with the verifiably false claim that "voter fraud helped Joe Biden win the 2020 election" — a key pillar of the "Big Lie" that the election was stolen from former President Donald Trump'.
'Fewer than half of Republicans say they are willing to accept the results of the 2020 election — a number that has remained virtually unchanged since we asked the same question last January.'
"There is really a sort of dual reality through which partisans are approaching not only what happened a year ago on Jan. 6, but also generally with our presidential election and our democracy," said Mallory Newall, a vice president at Ipsos, which conducted the poll.'(npr) See link below.
And it's all the free right-wing propaganda that is getting to the masses. While the more detailed, lengthy, well thought out analysis is by subscription. I dont have answers, but many people have commented here and elsewhere about how Americans are concerned about pocketbook issues...well? Do you think they are reading Washington Post, NY Times, The Atlantic, The New Yorker and so on? I've gone to states in the midwest to read their local papers and been stopped by the paywall. Papers need to make $$ and reporters need to be paid (well). What can we do?
There's an awful lot of pessimism in today's comments. Here are two things which might lead to more optimism. checkmyads.org exists to deprive Fox of its advertising, thereby defanging it, and Fox is one of the most powerful at spreading the big lie. (I haven't exhaustively checked on checkmyads.org, but I think influencewatch is a good indication--see below.) Also, checkmyads.org is located in Arlington Mass., which is a very blue part of my very blue state, sandwiched between Lexington and The Peoples' Republic of Cambridge.
To be clear, putting the facts forward to get people moving is not meant to be pessimism. It is meant to get....people moving. This is polling firm FiveThirtyEight. Not some right wing think tank. The below is where Democrats are. Will people act to overcome this or pretend it will be merry? I choose the former - tell people the truth so we can get the lead out. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-behind-bidens-record-low-approval-rating/
"His approval rating of 39 percent1 is now the worst of any elected president at this point in his presidency since the end of World War II, according to FiveThirtyEight’s historical presidential approval data. In other words, Biden is arguably in worse shape than any other elected president heading into his first midterm election, including his four most recent predecessors, who, like Biden, were operating in an increasingly polarized political climate."
We must be pragmatic to prevail. The sitting around feeling bad for Biden & Co and being afraid is a recipe certain to put Trump in office. Compromise on key issues, supporting moderation and organizing and doing what is necessary to put forward a credible candidate that has a chance of winning is what matters now. People in Dr. Richardson's world are already scared and upset. So what? How do we stop the real-time collapse of the Democratic party we are witnessing?
The Democratic party is not collapsing. Small democracy groups are sprouting up across the country since a school board banned books, a county commissioner flashed his gun, a 4th of July parade was AR-15ed, a state decided a raped, impregnated 10 year old can't have an abortion, the senate undercut environmental protectiona, a supreme court judge supported the insurrection. The Democratic Party is gaining members, funds and savvy. JOIN!!
I think your right MaryPat. I read something recently about the Democrats fundraising is far outpacing the Republicans - and it is pretty much all with thousands of small donations. People are alarmed and motivated!
As a side note, Republicans are feeling the heat and are resorting to their tried and true fear mongering claiming that liberals are out to get them and that they are getting more violent. There's not a shred of evidence that this is true but again fear mongering is in the first chapter of the Republican playbook.
Liberals are out to get them? Democrats fault Republicans for their positions, their lies, their hypocrisy. Republicans fault Democrats for not being Republicans, for not being white “Christian” nationalists, for assuming that equality under our laws is a good idea.
Really? So all the data from the polls which show Biden and the Dems at record lows to Vegas - a place where money backed by huge data-science wagering systems goes - shows Trump a shoe-in for '24 are not to be believed?
Honestly. You can believe what you wrote but anecdotal sentiments like that are what will lead to a wholesale wipeout. This is not about what I or anyone WANTS, it is a mere observation that the FACTS do NOT support your statement. The FACTS point to a Democratic party that is going to get obliterated in upcoming races.
Denying this stuff is as pernicious as denying Jan 6th matters.
Yes! Not to be believed. Fatcats are driving the constant attacks on Biden. Vegas, of all places, is especially not to be believed since it is in their interests to not handicap honestly. 1. Special interests lie., 2. Don’t start from an assumption of truth these days. It’s a lie until I am sure it’s a truth. Do you remember Bush’s Big Lie? His smirking truthiness? Do you remember Clinton’s I did not have sex with that woman? And
Trump was the biggest liar of them all? How about Maryann Conway’s alternative facts? And you want to believe the Las Vegas machine? Does Biden have a low approval rating. Probably. Does it matter? Only if you take it seriously? Do you think he’s doing a good job or better job than Trump?
Well. The reason to believe the Vegas numbers more than the fivethirtyeight.com which is a center left statistical service that wrote the below is....in Vegas you can bet your money on it. I am not presuming anything and am deeply aware of the role fat cats play in perverting everything about this country. We are careening towards a winner-take-all-kleptocracy.
But the right response in the face of overwhelming data suggesting Biden is, indeed, in very deep trouble is movement not stasis.
"His approval rating of 39 percent1 is now the worst of any elected president at this point in his presidency since the end of World War II, according to FiveThirtyEight’s historical presidential approval data. In other words, Biden is arguably in worse shape than any other elected president heading into his first midterm election, including his four most recent predecessors, who, like Biden, were operating in an increasingly polarized political climate."
Yes, you are correct.America is teetering on an extremely dangerous precipice and very few are aware of it.Certainly they are not hearing it on the mainstream news.I think Dr Richardson’s posts and the information we get from them are beyond invaluable yet the information she and a few others provide, is not readily available and it is truly terrifying.After all that has happened with Trump and his woebegone saga, many uninformed Americans are ready to put him in power again.I shudder at this thought.
…what’s at stake and what it would mean to them if there are no civil servants. A friend who was applying for a visa for her British husband in 2018-19 got exactly nothing done. The government was understaffed (and the CIS is slow in the best circumstances) and Americans could not get timely services. There would be no one to assist with social security snafus, veterans’ issues, etc. My point is, if tfg were back in office there would be LOTS of problems, not the least of which is the end of government services. My friend moved to the UK instead.
I don't disagree but what is all this hand-wringing accomplishing?
The sitting around feeling bad for Biden & Co and being afraid is a recipe certain to put Trump in office. Compromise on key issues, supporting moderation and organizing and doing what is necessary to put forward a credible candidate that has a chance of winning is what matters now. People in Dr. Richardson's world are already scared and upset. So what? How do we stop the real-time collapse of the Democratic party we are witnessing?
I think you missed my point. It was that gutting the civil service is not a theoretical bad thing. It has direct impacts on ppl’s lives. It like ppl saying ‘I don’t want the government doing insurance. Just don’t mess with my Medicare.’
I don't miss your point - I take it well and you are 100% correct. What I am getting at is the FACT you very understandably highlight will not help us win elections. In a prior time, let's call that "the age of mostly-truth" your observation might have been of critical importance. Today, we have indie voters and then we have a huge swath of Americans who have come to believe having gun toting people running through our Capitol during the peaceful transfer of power....is ok.
Apologies for any offense. I am at exhaustion with the "facts" when the only fact that matters is the Dems are lined up for one of the worst voter turnouts in history. I read these letters and, like everyone, get upset and anxious. But the truth is that has no purpose and helps no-one.
How do we move forward? How do we create a situation where the REPUBLICANS absolutely MUST put up a more moderate candidate than Trump??? Right now he is going to crush any Democrat put forward unless attitudes and behaviors on the left change. And THAT, my friend, scares me!!
"Same is true of his wannabes." Yes - the gov of Florida is lined up to take over where 45 left off and has used this state as a litmus test for what he can get away with. He inflicts damage at every absurd and ridiculous turn. Let's not forget HCR's chilling letter from earlier this year about the danger of this one man wrecking ball.
I know Governor De Satan is very dangerous and seems also very cruel but I first want to see the Trump reign of terror ended. Then we will have to deal with all of these horrible right wing authoritarians. These people are poised to reduce or change Social Security, Medicare and Obamacare to name a few "entitlements"( their words not mine) and people who are unconscious are just fine with it. Blows my mind that people are too caught up in keeping up with the Kardashians( someone today made this very comparison) to know that they are losing their democracy as I post.
In a tiny spot of good news, I recently had to Google “The Kardashians” when my wife looked at me and said “who the hell are the Kardashians and why are they relevant?”
Both agree with you and wonder why it matters. This is a consequence. The folks who don't even believe Jan 6th matters watching Fox don't care. The independent voter who is trying to pay their bills and frustrated with a Democratic party that they blame doesn't care. No matter how wrong that indie voter is to blame Biden & Co for this or that, unless things improve the Dems are setting themselves up to get totally wiped out.
If the investigation proves that CT was involved in Ginni's misdoings, are there steps to take? Can he be prosecuted? I hate the idea that we can't hold the SCOTUS members to the same standards.
"Like presidents and Cabinet members, federal judges can be removed from office through a similar process: impeached by the House and convicted in a trial by the Senate that would prompt removal from office."
With the constant corruption, self-dealing, and norm-breaking during the Trump years, news of his targeting civil servants never received adequate attention. I'm glad Heather has shined light on the topic.
It's another chilling warning: America as we know it will end should Trump somehow manage to regain the White House. Same is true of his wannabes.
The stellar work of the J6 committee shows signs of waking the nation, along with a Supreme Court intent on destroying hard-won freedoms. But I'd like to see some polling regarding how many Americans truly understand we're on the precipice and what's at stake.
'It's another chilling warning', so true Michael.
Through journalists, such as Jonathan Swan, Michael Schmidt, Carol Lenning, Robert Woodward, Robert Costa...so many good journalists and historians, Heather Cox Richardson, Anne Applebaum, Timothy Snyder....so many fine historians have educated and warned us. Remember all the great books we have read telling us where the country is headed. Trump and his hench mob are not sneaking up on us in the dark of night. Our job is to find the means to spread the word. The American people must be awakened. We cannot survive if social media and Fox News control the space. We must find ways to break their hold.
Folks who are committed to being ignorant and are proud of it are boring fools. They know that they are being led around by their noses by big money grifters. They haven’t figured out that the junk they are buying into for “free” is being used to fleece them. They want to “believe” not learn. That’s why I pay for Heather’s work and that of Propublica. I also donate to Wikipedia because I use it a lot. The New York Review of Books is invaluable. One of the surest signs of a good mind and intellectual courage is the ability to see and inquire about that which is NOT in the picture. I need regular help with that! These brutal and criminal GOP years have forced us all to sharpen our skills, to ask the questions. I think that the January 6th hearings have reminded us how that is done.
Throughout history, those 'boring fools' have enabled despots to come to power, and those with 'a good mind and intellectual courage' have suffered. While we are 'sharpening our skills,' they are sharpening their knives. Awareness is insufficient unless and until it leads to action.
Excellent line:
While we are 'sharpening our skills,' they are sharpening their knives.
Thanks. Visit www.activateamerica.vote to swing into action.
AMEN. Such a critical and important point. Most important thing said in here IMHO. Thank you.
This morning, I completed and mailed the last of 100 personalized postal cards to selected voters in the Arizona Senate race. Tonight, I start on a similar list in Nevada. These are the kinds of 'actions' we should be taking. Visit www.activateamerica.vote to find out how you can swing into action.
beauty!
Jack, I salute you for this effort. I should do this again soon as well. Did hand write 25 postcards on behalf of New Mexico dems to Native Americans on how to stay on the vote by mail list. There, you get cut off that list if you don’t do a bunch of stuff in just the right time.
Battling the Big Lie by Dan Pfeiffer a Democratic Party strategist and wordsmith is another good account of how we got here, what's being done, and what can be done. He was interviewed on a Politics Girl podcast.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lets-talk-messaging-pg-cc-dan-pfeiffer/id1595408601?i=1000566370119
Mandatory listening. If only this was heard far and wide. Thanks for posting.
Love it!!
Thank you, Michael.
Thank You Michael!
Agree. And we have about fifteen weeks left to do it. Those who follow the words of these journalists and historians are already aware of the crisis the nation faces, but that's not enough. It's time to activate the voices of those to whom the non-politically concerned of the country pay attention, the singers, entertainers, the TV hosts, the sports stars, and in a unifying, not a divisive, way. They have to be convinced to risk their careers as did the Paul Robesons and Jane Fondas of their time.
Yes. Strategic postcard writing, and I'll add canvassing and donations are ways that we can help. But our efforts alone may not be enough to secure the votes we need. I think it's show time for those with far-reaching voices. Neil Young stepped up yesterday to say that he will not perform during the pandemic. His statement was widely broadcasted. He, and others, could proclaim that they are grateful to live in a country where they are free to voice their opinions without fear of being silenced by an authoritarian government. Any music producers in
HCR's audience?
Broadcast, stream, zoom on small and big screens... including sports bars and movie theaters. When they go low, we go bold
Fern McBride, "Trump and his hench mob are not sneaking up on us in the dark of night." Absolutely true and absolutely scary.
Washington Post in-depth article about the Claremont Institute🧐. Under the cover of academia the radical right has apparently been attracting and grooming their ilk to place in government positions. 🤯
https://wapo.st/3J3UUOo
Well that was disturbing.
Thank you for sharing the link.
Right FERN, so many fine historians & journalists. Must mention Betsy Woodruff Swan & The Guardian's young Hugo Lowell at their DC Office. The Guardian has wide Global reach & can be contacted securely through their "HELP CENTER " Submissions accepted. Many LFAA Commenters capable.
So true. Support good journalism!
We must. Thanks Fern.
Agree Fern. And yet. If people by now don't care what a monster TFG is no amount of information if going to matter. Here is an example. In 2020 we were actually hiding in our homes. We had no masks, no vaccine etc. People were dying all around us. If that didn't get people's attention I don't know what will.
Jordan and his fellow cult members are also making it very clear they will impeach Biden, Harris and Pelosi and install TFG as Speaker. They intend to prosecute the January 6 Committee members.
I wonder. How much is the messaging a failing of the Biden Administration and the DNC?
Double down, Barbara. You will find your voice getting stronger and your determination increase. Join one or two grassroots organizations such:
https://indivisible.org/
https://www.lwv.org/
https://nationalvotercorps.org/volunteer/national-organizations/
https://coolmompicks.com/blog/2021/11/01/voting-rights-organizations-support/
https://www.democracyforamerica.com/site/page/eighteen-grassroots-groups-launch-effort-to-ensure-progressives-win-in-2020
https://www.startguide.org/orgs/orgs00.html
These Are among the Best Charities for Voting Rights in America
Below are our favorite charities for voting rights in America:
American Civil Liberties Union
Brennan Center for Justice
National Association for the Advancement of Colored People
Common Cause
League of Women Voters
Ballotpedia
FairVote
Spread the Vote
Rock the Vote
This is almost insulting Fern. I have been involved in politics for 50 years. I am very aware and have/are involved in number of these groups in addition to some you have not listed. I wasn't speaking to my voice. It is myopic to not call the President, the Biden Administration and other leading Democrats to task for messaging. Where is the hoopla on the work being done courtesy of the Infrastructure Act? Buttigieg appears to be a voice crying the wilderness at this point.
And I caution any overtly politically active people commenting on this site to please avoid the appearance of talking down to or lecturing others. Sometimes people just need to be heard; not called to action.
Adding another thought:
I also, deeply appreciate the work activists do.
'And I caution any 'overtly' politically active people commenting on this site to please avoid the appearance of talking down to or lecturing others.' Any more 'friendly and supportive encouragement' from you, Barbara M. would be appreciated.
First. I did add a "thank you" to my original comment. I will say it in a different way. Thank you for your work. The organizations you listed do good work. Maybe someone will choose a couple. After many years my personal journey with political activism has evolved to where I tread lightly when around others who are not politically active and don't want to be. I have put people off before by being too forceful thus ending up doing more harm than good. What I realized is political activism is just not for everyone nor is talking politics for everyone. So we chop wood and carry water often receiving little to no thanks. Sometimes we lend comfort not confrontation nor call to duty. That sometimes nudges a door open for thoughtful discourse.
Shanti
Barbara, I scrolled through quickly to be helpful in the short time that I had. It was impossible for me to read between the lines or remember the service that each subscriber was engaged in.
Then why write a demeaning response at all, Fern, if you do not have the information to write something meaningful? Please stop thinking of yourself as somehow having insight superior to others. It is really quite tiresome.
Thank you for the lists, Fern. There were some of which I was not aware. I'm rather new to the political arena. It took trump to make pay attention. At least he was useful for one thing!
Ricia, You are the useful one. I have learned a good deal about the country by participating on this forum and working with others in grassroots organizations whose goals are to turn this country into a democracy that supports all of us. Welcome! I am happy that you are here. It is a wonderful community learning more everyday from Heather Cox Richardson and from each other.
Steve Schmidt (The Warning), also on substack, wrote yesterday about the Axios series by Jonathan Swan. After reading Swan I was depressed for the rest of the day. My hope focusses on Merrick Garland.
Steve Schmidt (The Warning), also on substack, wrote yesterday about the Axios series by Jonathan Swan. After reading Swan I was depressed for the rest of the day. My hope focusses on Merrick Garland.
I would not trust polling. So far no one has reached me at home for a poll. That is because I do not answer random calls. Who are these pollers even reaching at this point? My elderly mother, who has had a stroke, and who gets tricked by callers and whom I have asked not to talk to strangers, is the only one I know who still takes calls from strangers. How are these polls finding people at this point? That is what I would like to know before I want to find out what they have to say. Who is answering the polls?
I do appreciate that Dr. Richardson details what is at stake here. It is a dystopian future that we appear to be hurtling towards like the space ship in Lost in Space, seemingly out of our control. I vote, I can work for campaigns, within limits I can donate money, I can write to papers, I can join protest marches, I can speak up, but I still have the sinking feeling that most people are ostriches. They have their heads in the sand and do not want to deal with the reality of the situation. I am frustrated by how many people I am surrounded by who basically do not want to talk about anything unpleasant. These are people who are staunchly against Trump. However, they are not going to worry about him winning again or spend much time thinking about what might happen that is bad until it happens, and then I am again going to be around depressed people, except that several of my friends and I mostly see each other in choir which is joyous or doing refugee work, which also has its rewards. For the most part they are just concerned with raising children, family vacations, getting their children into good colleges and the day to day stuff of life.
Polling was not reliable in the last two elections. I don’t respond to any sort of “poll” online as I do not know who the groups are. In the age of cell phones, it’s challenging to poll people. The poll that matters is the election.
I think the corrupt people in office count on people’s lack of attention. They pass terrible laws in the dead of night that get no publicity until they are passed and do terrible harm. So many people might have thought things would be less crazy if tRump were voted out. How has that worked so far?
We have a false front democracy, sort of like a movie set. The plutocratic robber barons control the politicians they have purchased with big campaign donations. Look up the billionaires Dunn and Wilks in Texas who are funding extreme right candidates who want to go right back to the Gilded Age.
Things are a lot less crazy wit trump out, and Biden in. From Yesterday's HCR:
Biden has defended democracy across the globe, accomplishing more in foreign diplomacy than any president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Less than a year after the former president threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken pulled together the NATO countries, as well as allies around the world, to stand against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The new strength of NATO prompted Sweden and Finland to join the organization, and earlier this month, NATO ambassadors signed protocols for their admission. This is the most significant expansion of NATO in 30 years.
Love or hate what Biden has done, he has managed to pull a wide range of countries together to stand against Russian president Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian attack in Ukraine, and he has managed get through a terribly divided Congress laws to make the lives of the majority better, even while Republicans are rejecting the idea that the government should reflect the will of the majority. That is no small feat.
Thanks, David, for recapping those accomplishments. It bolsters my approval of Biden even more.
I pasted from HR--just so you know--and you're welcome. Biden does not get nearly enough credit.
I have posted this before and it bears repeating.
When I retired, somehow I found out about online surveys which pay minimal amounts for your opinions. There are a number of them out there but the one I found to be trustworthy is surveyjunkie.com. Like other people do online gaming for fun, I like to do the polls. There are many for financial institutions, fast food, internet providers, and often politics. I love those ones as I really like to give bad ratings on certain politicians of the red sort! ;)
You need to sign up for surveyjunkie.com and log on daily for polls. You accrue points that can be exchanged for gift cards or cash, my preference. It is directly deposited into my bank account in a few days.
I can't recall how, but through surveyjunkie.com, I had an opportunity to sign up for YouGov. Those polls are by invitation which is sent to the email you provide. I sometimes read news about polls and realize that I was one of the people polled.
I never answer phone calls that I do not recognize.
Miselle, online surveys are notoriously unreliable, because they cannot meet even the most basic criteria for validity. Plus the main purpose of most of them is to gather info for marketing. The results are not applicable too the real world, and in the meantime you are giving over your personal information for pay. Think about that. Would you trust a poll you knew got its "information" in that way?
My comment was not as to whether or not polls are reliable, I was answering (once again) the query as to "who are they polling, who answers phone calls from numbers they don't know".
As for giving away my personal information for pay, at least it's ME getting the pay, as opposed to social media selling my data. And, btw, most of the surveys are for my opinions on products/services, not political polls.
Polls in 2020 were decidedly wrong, and the article linked below explores why (predictably there's a Trump effect).
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/18/pollsters-2020-polls-all-wrong-500050
Agreed! And agreed!
My logical mind can't wrap my head around the idea that 1541 people could be an accurate representation of views on ANY subject. Good grief. How do they find these folks? Why such a tiny number? And to your point, who picks up the phone when a strange number calls? It is almost always from "Sarah" or "Rachel" who are selling a credit card or auto warranties.
And I find it quite true in my little circle of existence that folks are so exhausted from TFG and his robotic followers and their conspiracies and lies, that they just shut down and think about their personal challenges. Of which we all have many...
That is what the fascists (we need to use this word!) are hoping for. That they will have more "participants" - despite the fact that they are outnumbered. We need to risk pissing off our family and friends by ringing the alarm loudly and frequently. This is our version of pre-WWII Germany.
Bill - Well-designed national polls typically use samples of around 1500 people. With a sample of that size the margin of error is around 3-4% at a 95% confidence level, almost no matter the size of the total population (e.g., 300,000,000 for the U.S., 8 billion or so for the whole world), as long as it is "large". What that means is that, in 95% of all samples of size 1500 (approx.), the proportion in the sample (such as "approve of Biden") will be within about 3 or 4% of the "true" proportion in the entire population. This type of result can be found in any elementary statistics textbook. But there is one "clinker" in this subject: the sample has to be chosen "at random", which has a specific technical meaning. Legitimate pollsters work hard to achieve random sampling, with varying degrees of success. As we've seen in recent polls, things can go awry for a variety of reasons. For a good historical example, the 1936 Literary Digest poll badly underestimated the support for Roosevelt (described in detail in The Public Opinion Quarterly, 52(1), Spring, 1988), pp. 125-133, and, if I remember correctly, Freedman, Pisani, and Purves, Statistics). Emphasis on the word 'legitimate'. So the statistical theory is correct; it's reality that's wrong.
Addendum - Some time ago I also posted a note to the effect that the probability of any particular person being included in a polling sample is tiny. So the argument that "polls are wrong because I've never been included in one" doesn't hold water. (Someone said this, in effect, above.) Also, I didn't give the specific numbers in my comments, but they can be worked out. It's freshman college or perhaps even high school statistics.
J Horowitz, I understand how the stats in a poll work and the necessity of a random sampling which random calling does not work, since many people will screen their calls. It is not the 1950s when everyone just answered the phone making it more random. That is still a poor example since in the 1950s not everyone had a phone. That would be the problem today too. You still would not get a true sampling of our population by calling because many people do not answer the phone, or they do not all have one. My point was illustrative of behavior of people who screen their calls versus people with brain damage like my mother who does not remember to do that all the time. So, I was not saying I have never been called, but rather most people who are careful do not answer telephone calls of people they don't know. So, polls need the trust of the sample, and that is going to be hard to gain. A trusting sample is not a random sample. In my graduate program in school psychology we studied sampling and polls. I have been attending a series of workshops through Northwestern this summer where they have been discussing communication bias, and I personally do not choose to participate in things that are slanted to support these sorts of biases. Also, I don't participate in research where the participants do not get any feedback. I am part of a university where I have ample opportunity to participate in research and there we are generally offered access to the research at some point, or I feel that what it is doing is important. A discussion of political polling by a researcher who presented this summer, was very troubling. It was not about looking for what is good for people but about racist, sexist, pro-Christian, homophobic labeling of people into types and anti-types. What bothers me about people calling over the phone is who knows whether the person calling is really a representing a legitimate poll. They could be someone trying to figure out what are the beliefs are in your particular home, and whether or not to harass you for those beliefs. You don't want your home or phone suddenly to be a target for who knows what sort of aggression. Also, you don't want your phone to be a target of right wing harassment. When my cell phone says likely scam those calls are avoided and we have a landline too. Unless we recognize the number it does not get answered. The rare exception is when we hear the landline ring and then one our cell phones, because we figure it is someone legitimate trying to get ahold of us. After a half a year of workshops on all of the anti democratic things that technology can be used for I am choosy, that does not mean I don't understand polls. The phone is a tool that can be used for a lot of things and not all of them are good.
Linda Wade: pollsters don’t rely on one phone number. If you don’t answer, they keep trying numbers in different area codes all over the country until someone does answer and responds. This actually adds to the randomness and offers greater likelihoods. Polls are not absolute numbers. They illustrate probabilities. Last minute high impact variables can skew the probabilities. In the absence of polling, you can always make wild guesses or count tea leaves or shake bones or just have no idea. Polls may be off, but they are rarely dead wrong. After voting polls rely on honesty. As people are becoming inured to lying as a no no, the after vote polls are reflecting the dishonesty in the country more than election probabilities IMHO.
Linda W - I see that Ann F has answered part of your comment (below). You raise many valid points; most of them are also true of Internet polling (via social media, etc.), and even to direct interview and mail polls. Some biases can be ameliorated, if not eliminated, by statistical adjustments of different kinds (which is not the same as "fudging" the results). There are many different types of bias that people try hard to address in the design of polls. In addition, as you point out, there are nefarious uses of polls and of personal information gathered in the conduct of some polls (not legitimate ones) so that one has to be cautious. My original post was about the theory that underlies polls; of course I only gave a snippet. It's actually quite complicated, far beyond my pay grade. These other issues arise in the practice of polling in the real world, whereas statistical theory is solid.
Thanks, J. Horowitz. Very good to know!
Thank you!
Thanks for the "stats theory". I get that.
I just can't imagine how "randomly selecting" 1500 people can possibly be meaningfully accurate when we don't see how that selection is made or the mechanics of the survey is not clearly explained. What if 1000 of those 1500 called never vote? What if 300 of them just had a bad day and responded in an atypical manner?
"Legitimate pollsters work hard to achieve random sampling, with varying degrees of success." Random suggests a certain chaos to me. So a pollster flings questions at a few people and then wraps some sort statistical theory around it to suggest that it's reasonably accurate?
And I wonder how many pollsters don't publish a poll because they don't think the results fit their expectations or are not news worthy, etc.
You bring up (mostly) valid points, but they are questions about "reality" (which, note, I said was "wrong" -- I hope I don't have to say I was being facetious), not about statistics. The problems you mention are connected with the drawing of a random sample. Sometimes, by mistake or design, the wrong population is sampled, for instance "all" as opposed to "people that intend to vote". A good randomization protocol should "average out" people that are having a bad day, although under Covid, that could be a lot of people. These are some of the practical difficulties in polling; there are many others. And, of course, if 95% of samples are "good" (i.e., give a result accurate to within the margin of error), there are still 5% that are "bad", and you can't know whether the sample you actually got is one of the 95% good or 5% bad. (To know that, you'd have to know the value of the quantity that you're trying to find out.) A pollster who "flings questions at a few people" and "wraps some sort statistical theory around it to suggest that it's reasonably accurate" is not legitimate. One other technical point: "random sample" has a technical definition, and doesn't mean "chaotic" in some sense, although common parlance may suggest that. (There's also a technical definition of chaos that means more than just the everyday notion of chaos.) One thing "random sampling" does NOT mean is that you go out on the street and take the first 1500 people that pass by as your sample. Again, there's a technical meaning and there are difficulties in obtaining a sample in the real world that adheres to that definition. Incidentally, the same problems regarding random sampling arise in obtaining subjects for clinical trials and assigning them to "treatment" or "control". All of this is discussed ad nauseam in the statistical literature. Speaking of which, it's time for me to shut up.
I hear you Linda. We are going fast down the rabbit hole of “doomerism” which breeds depression and apathy. There is so much ground given to Trump and the Republican Party by the amount of fear, disgust, AND allegiance literally blasted on front page space to him in every newspaper. Today in my paper, the front page is dedicated to Sen Scott (FL) “leading takeover effort” of the US Senate. Articles about DeSantis and Trump squaring off for a fight two years away. Local Republican efforts to gain local seats. Presence of Nazi organizations at Turning Point conference in Tampa at which DeSantis, Gaetz, and the usuals as keynote speakers. Signs everywhere deriding President Biden and his administration.
It has consumed the country along with overshadowing positive reports of what our CURRENT president is doing. If I read one more thing about Pres Biden’s average at best orator skills or Atty Gen Garland missing in action or “afraid” to prosecute a former president, I might have to hide under the covers. Not because all of this is not scary. But because I find little support for not being afraid and finding little support for optimism which breeds action and a refusal to succumb to the Republican cudgel of domination and corporate greed.
What is relevant to me is my voice that will give an inch to making Trump and the Republicans irrelevant. I will not support Republicans or any person supporting fascism. I turn my eyes away from any picture of him. I speak of Democracy and the common good of it and the unity that prevails because of it. There is no opposite of Light. And my words that are heard by the Universe speak of good and Love that always prevails. Don’t get me wrong. I am a warrior for our Democracy and fierce in my actions to value it.
Even a day of not mentioning or hearing fascist schemes is a day of victory for me. That always leads me to believe we are talking about the right things.
United. Salud. 🗽
Christine, I agree with you wholeheartedly! Salud!!!!
Salud!
Attempted like
Hopefully this Axios series will be enlightening, wake people up. I have heard about it in a couple of places now. I think it's something that most people could see is scary.
I'm sorry about your home, Suz. I can't imagine, although my home had a lot of R saluting going on. From what I've seen, even some/many D folks are tuned out, not aware of the threat, think now that Trump is out of the WH, he's done, no point in dwelling on him anymore.
Last week I had a call from a ‘research’ company that I chose to answer, and it was a polling company. From the phrasing of the questions they were Republican biased and I did challenge several questions and said that I thought their statements were misleading.
Anyway, all my answers were pro Democracy and anti Republicans. I live in the Phoenix area and all the Republican candidates are so far to the right it’s frightening.
I wonder what they did with your answers. Did they offer to share feedback on their poll with you or give you some means of knowing what they were going to do with the information they were gathering over the phone?
Yes I am not confident the majority of Not MAGA Americans have a gut sense of the gravity of the peril we are in as a Democracy. I hope the J6 committee will enlighten us equally.
Another concern I share with you, I believe, is that it’s one thing to have a gut sense of the gravity of the peril we are in as a democracy, and it’s another thing to be mobilized to work with others to create a coherent and coordinated response. This is so much a war of public opinion. And with so many Republicans apparently quite willing to accept authoritarianism in order to pursue their agenda and consolidate a lockstep on power, our integrated and principled hard work needs to be fully enacted right down to the grassroots. That level of commitment to stand up and make oneself heard in a climate of increasing surveillance and manipulation in the realm of social media will require people with the same level of sophistication as Bannon but with genuine integrity.
Couldn’t agree more, so worried about Dems lack of the killer instinct (or self-preservation). Republicans have both in spades. The young can save us, along with women who get it, and people of color who certainly should.
Thanks, Jeri, for sharing these thoughts. I actually had written something along these lines, (re what younger thinkers can bring to the table) but my commentary above was so lengthy that I ended up cutting and pasting it to become a separate, more recent comment just a few minutes ago.
Democrats are trying to “kill” one another more trying to “knock off” Republicans. So hard to watch
Could not agree more with this Alison Scott. The sitting around feeling bad for Biden & Co and being afraid is a recipe certain to put Trump in office. Compromise on key issues, supporting moderation and organizing and doing what is necessary to put forward a credible candidate that has a chance of winning is what matters now. People in Dr. Richardson's world are already scared and upset. So what? How do we stop the real-time collapse of the Democratic party we are witnessing?
Sabrina, Apparently a majority of MAGA folks have locked on to their truth, driven by the "alternate facts" of Fox, Kellyanne Conway, Rudy et all, and they are steadfast in what they have chosen to believe. A few of these people I happen to know are adamant in their belief that we are not in danger. Their minds are made up and are closed to anything that might be referred to as enlightenment. "The J6 Committee is just a made up attempt to damage Trump."
I have heard a lot of people say, "he's gone, move on, it's over." Bu it's not! He's not! It's just accelerating. He got the wheels turning faster.
Oh yes, Kim, I have been hearing this. Move on, nothing to see here. We have a large contingent of minimally educated people in this country.
Yes, Richard, agreed, but also people who just don't want to be bothered, don't want to be unhappy or depressed, don't want to think about it.
Richard, unfortunately I have to agree with you on the "minimally educated" contingent. And then there are the ones that choose to remain oblivious but still vote.
Even when he is finally gone, the underlying problems will still be with us.
How does this matter Sabrina? As others in this post have explained, 75% of the country isn't even watching the Jan 6th hearings. Incredible but true.
The sitting around feeling bad for Biden & Co and being afraid is a recipe certain to put Trump in office. Compromise on key issues, supporting moderation and organizing and doing what is necessary to put forward a credible candidate that has a chance of winning is what matters now. People in Dr. Richardson's world are already scared and upset. So what? How do we stop the real-time collapse of the Democratic party we are witnessing?
Approximately 4% of Republicans polled have changed their mind and won’t vote for Trump based on J6 Hearings. We need 7% of Independents to switch away from Trump. The Hearings are not over. We are well within winning the midterms if. We get a Blue Wave. Women of all races are going to turn out for sure. We need men of all races to do the same. The youth vote has to get going! Keep reminding your kids to register and vote. Help your parents and grands. Make sure they are registered and applied for a mail in ballot. If each of us looked out for others, we could and will win the midterms, then on to ‘24.
That is a lot of independents and I don't think Jan 6th is the trick but my heart is with you. Believe we better see a major turnout by the lazy middle so to speak. Love the passion.
That would be especially nice, but not likely. B did so well in 2020 because of Wjitevand Black wome. He won Hispanic but not as much as he should have. Men of all races didn’t turn out for him as much as White men did for Trump, if I remember correctly.
The State Department was gutted under Pompeo. TFG's administration set a course to lie to some countries, who knew they were being lied to. Many Foreign Service Officers left on their own because of this. Many more were pushed out. For a greater understanding of what our Diplomatic corps does, I commend to you the memoir of Marie Yovanovitch. You will come to understand the loss and the years it will take to recover. Their service is no less dangerous (and often more; e.g. Christopher Stevens) than military personnel without the benefits of veteran status.
I finished her book yesterday. Her beloved mother and biggest champion got sick and died during her travails with tfg’s administration. Yet she persisted. The emotional toll on her was beyond belief. These are the ppl tfg wants out of government.
“Lessons from the Edge”, by Marie Yovanovitch. Thank you. Adding it to my list. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/mar/20/lessons-from-the-edge-review-marie-yovanovitch-trump-putin-ukraine
Also excellent is the memoir by Fiona Hill, the Ukraine expert who was summarily fired by Trump for daring to speak out about and refuse to cooperate with his attempt to blackmail President Zelensky into supporting Trump’s smear campaign against the Bidens.
“There Is Nothing for You Here”.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/nov/17/there-is-nothing-for-you-here-by-fiona-hill-review-more-than-a-white-house-memoir
I’ve placed both on hold at the library. It’s interesting how the wait list grows on books mentioned here.
'Poll: Half of Americans now predict U.S. may 'cease to be a democracy' someday'
'A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that most Democrats (55%) and Republicans (53%) now believe it is “likely” that America will “cease to be a democracy in the future” — a stunning expression of bipartisan despair about the direction of the country.'
'Half of all Americans (49%) express the same sentiment when independents and those who do not declare any political affiliation are factored in, while just a quarter (25%) consider the end of U.S. democracy unlikely and another quarter (25%) say they’re unsure.'
'At the same time, however, a large number of Americans seem indifferent to the high-profile hearings by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol — an effort to get to the bottom of one of the most dramatic assaults on the democratic process in U.S. history.'
'In fact, the new survey of 1,541 U.S. adults — which was conducted from June 10 (the day after the committee’s first hearing) to June 13 (the day of its second) — found that fewer than 1 in 4 (24%) say they watched last Thursday’s initial primetime broadcast live. Only slightly more (27%) say they caught news coverage later. Nearly half (49%) say they did not follow the hearings at all.'(Yahoo) See link below.
https://news.yahoo.com/poll-half-of-americans-now-predict-us-may-cease-to-be-a-democracy-someday-090028564.html
Thanks for this. The sad truth is that much of the country has never been politically engaged. And now with Covid, inflation, income disparity, and so on, many people are simply struggling to stay afloat. They take for granted freedoms that are under dire threat.
Great. So what needs doing to get the vote out? Many Americans are focused on paying their bills. No matter how fiercely I believe Jan 6th is "the issue" it is not relevant unless the work there helps us avoid Trump '24.
What are the issues that matter to the swing voters that matter in the upcoming election?
Votefwd.org allows us to write letters to registered Democrats who rarely vote. The letters are to be mailed at the end of October. I have 60 finished and bought 300 forever stamps before the price rise.
Me too Maia; almost done with my 60. I really liked the format and the long deadline!
Me, too. Have done 50 even though I'm not 100% convinced that they'll be very effective. Dr. Richardson encourages us to talk to people around us and post truthful articles, etc. Unfortunately, I live overseas and am very much in a very liberal bubble. So I write these letters.
I did some for 2021 and have signed up for 120 for October; may do more. I highlight the reasons for voting-good jobs, education, safety nets (Social Security/ Medicare/ Healthcare/ affordable meds, etc),voting rights, healthier environment
BRILLIANT
Good! You go, girl! Great idea!
It's almost not about getting the vote out but instead educating voters.
Agree but having engaged with Trump-wingers there is no dissuading them of anything.
It is the moderates that need to be won and they do not, understandably, tolerate parties that are in charge with soaring inflation and raging gasoline prices.
Barbara, Often, new subscribers and others who are ready to get out the vote and spread the word appreciate suggestions of groups to work with. Ellie does that a lot, but she hasn't been around for the last week or so. Suggestions from you with a line about the strength of each organization could be part of the education process that you mentioned. Cheers!
I will. Right now I have to leave for work. Will do when I get home.
We can see this all around us. I just had a friend who teaches speech at a college in Texas WhatsApp me. He was given the go ahead to grow a podcast class which is the perfect opportunity to grow an audience and light fires to protect abortion rights, lbgtq+ rights, racial equality, climate change, and saving our democracy. He tossed these off as though they are nothing and asked me if I had ideas. Sigh. I suggested he watch and listen to Politics Girl.
It is obvious the ignorant and disaffected serve the active ideological virtual conspirators like the Trumpian Congress people and State Level Republican Operatives.
I’ll not let up on describing the result as a metastasized cancer that has invaded the cells in every level and aspect of the American Politic.
With a corrupted SCOTUS and dormant US Senate it seems to me a time for hyper activity in elections and in litigation.
I believe with the Natures Trust Principle that the Rights of Mankind precede and transcend Government. The Trump/Fascist corruption now invades the minds of significant parts of American Citizens aided by the jelling of the attention span of Fox News Addicts.
To recapture the promise of Government by and for the people will require a paradigm shift by the Liberal and Independent who must form antagonism and confrontation as a tool.
In the past six years the “other side,” from the Democrats has ushered in a brief era of Destructive Government, played with citizenship principles that caused millions of people to die deaths that vaccines could have averted and now are poised to slide in parallel Government similar to the Nazi use of the structures of the Weimar Republic to seize power.
Don’t let them destroy us.
I read the above and am thrilled! 167 m voted in the last election. Can I think that maybe 40 million actually watched the first Hearing? Probably not but 24% is damn good. I read 21 million watched the most recent hearing on the mainstream channels. That did not include those who streamed or, like me, watched on PBS ( antenna users). So 21 m is an undercount. Approximately 4 m watched Fox News. The problem with a lot of pessimists is not just that they don’t believe the polling but they also don’t have a mathematical mind so can’t really make sense of them. It is very fashionable with the talking heads to pan polls, too, because they want you to believe them. In my book, if you are going to make choices about what to believe and not believe, don’t believe actors or pseudo actors on TV. Read!
This is reality. Data. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-behind-bidens-record-low-approval-rating/ To quote from their release see below. This is not the stuff of winning. This is the sign that change is needed.
"His approval rating of 39 percent1 is now the worst of any elected president at this point in his presidency since the end of World War II, according to FiveThirtyEight’s historical presidential approval data. In other words, Biden is arguably in worse shape than any other elected president heading into his first midterm election, including his four most recent predecessors, who, like Biden, were operating in an increasingly polarized political climate."
I follow Five Thirty Eight, too. Yes, that’s what they keep harping about. But here’s another fact. Since 1980, the balance of power in Congress has remained the same in four elections. In 1994 and 2006, the majority party lost in both houses. 1994 Repubs lost both House and Senate. 2006. Dems won both House and Senate. . In the past five midterm elections, the Repubs gained control of the Senate in 2014, the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2002. The last time the Dems won back the House and didn’t win the Senate in a midterm was in 1930 when Hoover was President before this last win during the presidential. Reagan won his first election in a landslide. The House remained Dem and Sen Repub. 1982 mid terms, no change re majority, 1984 presidential Reagan won handily, Congress didn’t switch, 1986 mid terms, Dems kept the House and took the Senate, 1988 presidential election. Bush won. Congress didn’t change.
So what’s my point. My point is that Biden’s approval rating has watered down meaning for the midterms. High approval ratings don’t mean the party in power will win both houses. Lower approval ratings don’t mean they won’t.
Very thoughtful response and certainly hope there is a bit of a "blue backlash" but the historical walk-through is agnostic any current data. In statistical terms it is like being at a roulette table and seeing RED come up 5x in a row and then seeing that the likelihood of a "6 red streak" is very low meaning you should bet on BLACK. But that simply isn't the case. The probabilities are discreet with every spin. There is no causality to infer from your pattern (unfortunately).
I just rereread my comment and corrected the last word from will to won’t, plus a couple of typos. Now my comment is a long winded way of agreeing with you which is actually what i was trying to say in the first place. Thanks. You drew my attention back so i saw the error.
Great. So what needs doing to get the vote out? Many Americans are focused on paying their bills. No matter how fiercely I believe Jan 6th is "the issue" it is not relevant unless the work there helps us avoid Trump '24.
What are the issues that matter to the swing voters that matter in the upcoming election?
@Lost in Translation: Exactly. While it’s a sad fact for politically aware activists like all of us here, most people are too busy with their own lives to pay attention to the Jan6 hearings. But it’s a fact, it has been ever thus, and we need to accept it and get out in force, executing on the strategies that DO work. As you astutely point out, we need to focus on the issues that do matter to people in their own lives. And work like hell to Get Out The Vote by motivating people on the issues they personally care about. Most people don’t vote. Many on this forum have mentioned the accessible ways we can all help GOTV. For example, these organizations run targeted, research-based postcard and letter writing campaigns to registered Democrats and leaning-Dem independents, and likely-Democrats who aren’t yet registered:
Indivisible, Swing Left, Vote Forward.
Research shows that people who get a postcard or letter are much more likely to vote than people who don’t. These campaigns are great ways to reach individual voters.
Actually the last hearing had a following of more than 21 million which is a lot. That was an undercount, too, since it didn’t include streaming and PBS or C-Span.
I agree an undercount of 21 million is a lot of people. But it's still a small minority of the U.S. registered voter population. According to the U.S. Census, the total citizen population in Nov. 202 was 231,593,000. The total who reported they were registered voters was 168,308,000 with 25,782,000 who reported as not registered and 37,503,000 who didn't respond to that question. The total who reported they actually voted was 154,628,000 with 36,404,000 who didn't respond on whether they vote. So unless 21 million is an extreme undercount, less that 13% of registered voters watched that last hearing. I stand by my statement that most people are so preoccupied with their own lives--either because it takes all their energy just to survive, or because they are surviving fine but just don't bother--that they don't follow politics and rarely or never vote.
21,000,000 out of 168,308,000 is about 12.48%.
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-585.html
As I said in my post, it’s tempting to try to apply the 23% to the known electorate from the presidential election, 87 mill plus to 80 mill plus, but it’s apples and oranges because mid terms are traditionally low turn out elections and the last presidential was unusually high in turnout. So, can we get the same demographics to turn out for the mids in higher numbers and the poor showing demos ( young adults and White males) to turn out for the mids. What I hear in these posts is I am too busy putting food on the table or being depressed. No, not really me. My friends. Does anybody remember getting two thousand extra dollars in 2020? Does it matter that the Biden economic plan has meant a steady uptick in employment to the largest job creation on a monthly basis ever? The talking heads keep telling you two quarters of inflation mean we are headed for a recession. That’s quick and easy, but not necessarily true. Plus, prices are falling. Now who ya gonna blame? I think the Dems have caught the aggrieved Republican infection.
What matters IMHO is not the number....it is the number who are actually undecided voters that are watching. And I would venture a guess the number is very very small indeed.
Maybe. But what matters is if they vote or don’t. Fence sitters do what? Listen to both sides? Wait for the wind to blow? Wait for a sign from God? My guess is they don’t do anything. .
ABSOLUTELY LOVE THIS!! THANK YOU!!
Yahoo? Seriously? I'd love to pick that one apart, starting with how they picked 1,541 adults- which is an unrealistically small sample for this broad a survey anyway. Add in how questions are structured. Holy cow.
Deeply concerned about this. Know numerous people who decided not to move here due to the culture wars, others who have already left and still more figuring out where to go. Great post and point.
We could face a significant brain drain. This combined with limits on immigration from countries notable for the tech workers adds up to decline.
From The Atlantic ¨America's Self-Obsession is Killing It's Democracy¨ by Brian Klass, Hugely important
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/american-democracy-breakdown-authoritarianism-rise/670580/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
I subscribe to The Atlantic, but I know very few people who do. I've said it before in a comment to another day's post...This is a problem. Fox, Breitbart, etc are free. They are getting to the masses. Brian Klaas' article, Anne Applebaum's work, Barton Gellman's warnings and so on are not.
I give Atlantic subscriptions as gifts—libraries, senior centers, etc
I want it to thrive
Great idea.
It is!!!
Many of these are available at public libraries. Reading has been replaced by watching and listening. If more people still read, they would certainly find the cost of subscriptions minimal compared to cost of losing democracy. I agree with the description of the self-obsessed American. Folks may be clamoring about the cost of gas but the highways are bumper to bumper in some areas with trave!ers. Those huge trucks burn a lot.
I lose sympathy for the complaints about gas prices when I keep seeing people sitting in their cars in parking lots with the engines running or waiting 20 minutes in a long drive up line instead of going inside, which would only take 5 minutes.
Vital point, MK. What to do?
Repost those that others subscribe to on every social media. Email to friends and family.
Thank you for that link...but hoyhowdy, that is one depressing article.
Thank You. Terrifying. Important. Shared.
Thanks for that - chilling - but why the lack of reaction?
I am a tired 68 year old who works to elect progressive candidates. I accept that. Many people just don't want to volunteer. Part of my job is to try and persuade them to help. Plain and simple. Do the work because it needs to be done. Stay hopeful.
Good on you! Keep up the good work!
Excellent. Thank You.
You're welcome ❤️
Read this yesterday and did not sleep well. Thanks.
❤️
Not enough, most too interested in Kardashian blather and Fox certainly hasn’t let on.
Bingo
'6 in 10 Americans say U.S. democracy is in crisis as the 'Big Lie' takes root'
'One year after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Americans are deeply pessimistic about the future of democracy.'
'A new NPR/Ipsos poll finds that 64% of Americans believe U.S. democracy is "in crisis and at risk of failing." That sentiment is felt most acutely by Republicans: Two-thirds of GOP respondents agree with the verifiably false claim that "voter fraud helped Joe Biden win the 2020 election" — a key pillar of the "Big Lie" that the election was stolen from former President Donald Trump'.
'Fewer than half of Republicans say they are willing to accept the results of the 2020 election — a number that has remained virtually unchanged since we asked the same question last January.'
"There is really a sort of dual reality through which partisans are approaching not only what happened a year ago on Jan. 6, but also generally with our presidential election and our democracy," said Mallory Newall, a vice president at Ipsos, which conducted the poll.'(npr) See link below.
https://www.npr.org/2022/01/03/1069764164/american-democracy-poll-jan-6
I'll never understand how so many are so willing to believe something demonstrably false. Alas, the power of propaganda.
And it's all the free right-wing propaganda that is getting to the masses. While the more detailed, lengthy, well thought out analysis is by subscription. I dont have answers, but many people have commented here and elsewhere about how Americans are concerned about pocketbook issues...well? Do you think they are reading Washington Post, NY Times, The Atlantic, The New Yorker and so on? I've gone to states in the midwest to read their local papers and been stopped by the paywall. Papers need to make $$ and reporters need to be paid (well). What can we do?
There's an awful lot of pessimism in today's comments. Here are two things which might lead to more optimism. checkmyads.org exists to deprive Fox of its advertising, thereby defanging it, and Fox is one of the most powerful at spreading the big lie. (I haven't exhaustively checked on checkmyads.org, but I think influencewatch is a good indication--see below.) Also, checkmyads.org is located in Arlington Mass., which is a very blue part of my very blue state, sandwiched between Lexington and The Peoples' Republic of Cambridge.
https://checkmyads.org/branded/were-ready-to-break-the-fox-news-machine/
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/check-my-ads-institute/
Thank you, David, for suggesting more ways to counter disinformation and spread the pro-democracy movement,.
You're welcome Fern.
❤️
THANK YOU!
To be clear, putting the facts forward to get people moving is not meant to be pessimism. It is meant to get....people moving. This is polling firm FiveThirtyEight. Not some right wing think tank. The below is where Democrats are. Will people act to overcome this or pretend it will be merry? I choose the former - tell people the truth so we can get the lead out. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-behind-bidens-record-low-approval-rating/
"His approval rating of 39 percent1 is now the worst of any elected president at this point in his presidency since the end of World War II, according to FiveThirtyEight’s historical presidential approval data. In other words, Biden is arguably in worse shape than any other elected president heading into his first midterm election, including his four most recent predecessors, who, like Biden, were operating in an increasingly polarized political climate."
We must be pragmatic to prevail. The sitting around feeling bad for Biden & Co and being afraid is a recipe certain to put Trump in office. Compromise on key issues, supporting moderation and organizing and doing what is necessary to put forward a credible candidate that has a chance of winning is what matters now. People in Dr. Richardson's world are already scared and upset. So what? How do we stop the real-time collapse of the Democratic party we are witnessing?
The Democratic party is not collapsing. Small democracy groups are sprouting up across the country since a school board banned books, a county commissioner flashed his gun, a 4th of July parade was AR-15ed, a state decided a raped, impregnated 10 year old can't have an abortion, the senate undercut environmental protectiona, a supreme court judge supported the insurrection. The Democratic Party is gaining members, funds and savvy. JOIN!!
I think your right MaryPat. I read something recently about the Democrats fundraising is far outpacing the Republicans - and it is pretty much all with thousands of small donations. People are alarmed and motivated!
As a side note, Republicans are feeling the heat and are resorting to their tried and true fear mongering claiming that liberals are out to get them and that they are getting more violent. There's not a shred of evidence that this is true but again fear mongering is in the first chapter of the Republican playbook.
Liberals are out to get them? Democrats fault Republicans for their positions, their lies, their hypocrisy. Republicans fault Democrats for not being Republicans, for not being white “Christian” nationalists, for assuming that equality under our laws is a good idea.
Really? So all the data from the polls which show Biden and the Dems at record lows to Vegas - a place where money backed by huge data-science wagering systems goes - shows Trump a shoe-in for '24 are not to be believed?
Honestly. You can believe what you wrote but anecdotal sentiments like that are what will lead to a wholesale wipeout. This is not about what I or anyone WANTS, it is a mere observation that the FACTS do NOT support your statement. The FACTS point to a Democratic party that is going to get obliterated in upcoming races.
Denying this stuff is as pernicious as denying Jan 6th matters.
Take all that energy and start a small group working for democracy, and link it up to the Democratic Party. Up the odds.
Yes! Not to be believed. Fatcats are driving the constant attacks on Biden. Vegas, of all places, is especially not to be believed since it is in their interests to not handicap honestly. 1. Special interests lie., 2. Don’t start from an assumption of truth these days. It’s a lie until I am sure it’s a truth. Do you remember Bush’s Big Lie? His smirking truthiness? Do you remember Clinton’s I did not have sex with that woman? And
Trump was the biggest liar of them all? How about Maryann Conway’s alternative facts? And you want to believe the Las Vegas machine? Does Biden have a low approval rating. Probably. Does it matter? Only if you take it seriously? Do you think he’s doing a good job or better job than Trump?
Well. The reason to believe the Vegas numbers more than the fivethirtyeight.com which is a center left statistical service that wrote the below is....in Vegas you can bet your money on it. I am not presuming anything and am deeply aware of the role fat cats play in perverting everything about this country. We are careening towards a winner-take-all-kleptocracy.
But the right response in the face of overwhelming data suggesting Biden is, indeed, in very deep trouble is movement not stasis.
"His approval rating of 39 percent1 is now the worst of any elected president at this point in his presidency since the end of World War II, according to FiveThirtyEight’s historical presidential approval data. In other words, Biden is arguably in worse shape than any other elected president heading into his first midterm election, including his four most recent predecessors, who, like Biden, were operating in an increasingly polarized political climate."
Yes, you are correct.America is teetering on an extremely dangerous precipice and very few are aware of it.Certainly they are not hearing it on the mainstream news.I think Dr Richardson’s posts and the information we get from them are beyond invaluable yet the information she and a few others provide, is not readily available and it is truly terrifying.After all that has happened with Trump and his woebegone saga, many uninformed Americans are ready to put him in power again.I shudder at this thought.
…what’s at stake and what it would mean to them if there are no civil servants. A friend who was applying for a visa for her British husband in 2018-19 got exactly nothing done. The government was understaffed (and the CIS is slow in the best circumstances) and Americans could not get timely services. There would be no one to assist with social security snafus, veterans’ issues, etc. My point is, if tfg were back in office there would be LOTS of problems, not the least of which is the end of government services. My friend moved to the UK instead.
I don't disagree but what is all this hand-wringing accomplishing?
The sitting around feeling bad for Biden & Co and being afraid is a recipe certain to put Trump in office. Compromise on key issues, supporting moderation and organizing and doing what is necessary to put forward a credible candidate that has a chance of winning is what matters now. People in Dr. Richardson's world are already scared and upset. So what? How do we stop the real-time collapse of the Democratic party we are witnessing?
I think you missed my point. It was that gutting the civil service is not a theoretical bad thing. It has direct impacts on ppl’s lives. It like ppl saying ‘I don’t want the government doing insurance. Just don’t mess with my Medicare.’
I don't miss your point - I take it well and you are 100% correct. What I am getting at is the FACT you very understandably highlight will not help us win elections. In a prior time, let's call that "the age of mostly-truth" your observation might have been of critical importance. Today, we have indie voters and then we have a huge swath of Americans who have come to believe having gun toting people running through our Capitol during the peaceful transfer of power....is ok.
Apologies for any offense. I am at exhaustion with the "facts" when the only fact that matters is the Dems are lined up for one of the worst voter turnouts in history. I read these letters and, like everyone, get upset and anxious. But the truth is that has no purpose and helps no-one.
How do we move forward? How do we create a situation where the REPUBLICANS absolutely MUST put up a more moderate candidate than Trump??? Right now he is going to crush any Democrat put forward unless attitudes and behaviors on the left change. And THAT, my friend, scares me!!
"Same is true of his wannabes." Yes - the gov of Florida is lined up to take over where 45 left off and has used this state as a litmus test for what he can get away with. He inflicts damage at every absurd and ridiculous turn. Let's not forget HCR's chilling letter from earlier this year about the danger of this one man wrecking ball.
I know Governor De Satan is very dangerous and seems also very cruel but I first want to see the Trump reign of terror ended. Then we will have to deal with all of these horrible right wing authoritarians. These people are poised to reduce or change Social Security, Medicare and Obamacare to name a few "entitlements"( their words not mine) and people who are unconscious are just fine with it. Blows my mind that people are too caught up in keeping up with the Kardashians( someone today made this very comparison) to know that they are losing their democracy as I post.
In a tiny spot of good news, I recently had to Google “The Kardashians” when my wife looked at me and said “who the hell are the Kardashians and why are they relevant?”
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Both agree with you and wonder why it matters. This is a consequence. The folks who don't even believe Jan 6th matters watching Fox don't care. The independent voter who is trying to pay their bills and frustrated with a Democratic party that they blame doesn't care. No matter how wrong that indie voter is to blame Biden & Co for this or that, unless things improve the Dems are setting themselves up to get totally wiped out.
It's not just if Trump returns to office. His enablers are still unscathed. Shine light on these roaches and get these traitors out of government!
If the investigation proves that CT was involved in Ginni's misdoings, are there steps to take? Can he be prosecuted? I hate the idea that we can't hold the SCOTUS members to the same standards.
"Like presidents and Cabinet members, federal judges can be removed from office through a similar process: impeached by the House and convicted in a trial by the Senate that would prompt removal from office."
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-06-29/could-democrats-impeach-supreme-court-justices-for-lying-in-the-wake-of-roe
Oh yes, I had read that and it doesn't give me any hope. There seems to be a lot of double standards regarding the SCOTUS.
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/july-24-2022/comment/7973085?r=16nvk&utm_medium=ios