First, thank you so much for your posts. They are my favorite source of news and have gotten me through so many sleepless nights this year!
One thing about the post tonight, however: I’d caution you to think that the many people who have changed their voter affiliations from Republican are doing it because they are disgusted with Trump.
First, thank you so much for your posts. They are my favorite source of news and have gotten me through so many sleepless nights this year!
One thing about the post tonight, however: I’d caution you to think that the many people who have changed their voter affiliations from Republican are doing it because they are disgusted with Trump.
Quite to the contrary, many are doing it because the LOVE Trump and are angry with the Republican Party for insufficiently supporting him. I know this first hand because my father is one of the former Florida republicans who proudly did just this, and I know he is definitely typical of a “type” you might meet in Florida, which is one of many unique “types” of people I know in Florida who think Trump was the greatest president to ever walk the earth and are in complete denial of his lies.
The influx of newly registered NPA voters in Florida last year also concerned me for the same reason, which appears to have played out in the votes. As such, I looked up a few of the arrested insurrectionists on a site that allows you to search the voter registrations for people in several states and found that quite a few were registered NPA.
I suspect that the Patriot Party could become a legitimate third party, taking the 25-30% of Americans (who I think are Trump loyalists based on polls on various topics) with it. And I believe it is going to be popular with far more demographics than one might think.
I only hope the Senate can muster the courage to prevent him from becoming president again so that his party might lose steam before fully taking hold.
I've been thinking about the numbers. The election came out 81M to 74M. After Dec 6, it's not very likely that many of those 82M are going to switch to Republican. Any split in the Republican Party is going to have to share that 74M, and the Trump vote is now seriously tainted. I don't believe there were ever 74M Trumpites out there. An awful lot of them were business Republicans, elderly Eisenhower Republicans, and single-issue voters who were willing to overlook philandering and abuse of power, but who will draw the line at sedition. If we take at its face the "75% of Republicans think Trump sucks" figure some media has published, it could reduce that 74M to as little as 18M that will stay loyal to Trump. If we take your estimate of (say) 30% of all Americans as solid Trump supporters, that's 46M, with only 28M supporting the business Republicans.
Either way, as Heather has pointed out, the Republican Party is in deep trouble. The math no longer works for them, even with gerrymandering and voter suppression. If they try to reunite the split party, they'll lose a lot of the 28M to 56M non-Trump Republicans: the business community has already indicated what they think of Trumpism. If they allow the split to become two parties, neither split will have enough votes to hold Senate seats.
The Republicans' best strategy is to take Trump entirely out of the equation; convicting, then disqualifying him in the upcoming impeachment trial is the low-hanging fruit. All they need to pull together is a coalition of 17 Republican Senators to convict him. Trumpism is a personality cult, not a political party. If they can remove the Personality from any future runs, the cult will wither.
I concur with your notion, Natasha, of the so-called Patriot Party, as far as its legitimacy. I like the possibility of its potential to attract 25% of the electorate. However, I do not see it a threat to the growing Democratic Party base. I see it as a major threat to conservatism and the Republican Party.
First, I believe the Dems have learned from Obama’s first two years, that we will not sleep-walk into the mid-term election. We will grow an enthusiastic base. And we already see this energy playing out in the shifting winds of the political landscape ....
Georgia and Arizona offer stark contrasts of the polarities of our politics today. The two states have four sterling Senators, all Democrats! Let’s wrap our heads around that for a moment. And, the conservative movement and Republican Party in both states are doing their best to self-destruct. In each state, one of the newly elected Dem Senators will have to run again in 2022, and by then the disparity between Democrats and the loonies will be all the more stark.
This ‘civil war’ within conservatism has the potential to advance progressive prospects in 2022. For instance, In PA., the progressive and popular Lt Governor hs already announced his candidancy for the open Senate seat in ’22. His already strong brand can only be helped by the brouhaha in PA. politics that we all saw during the Nov. election. I suspect this dynamic will play out in many other states, as well.
Rep. Tim Ryan comes to mind. He's tight with labor like Sherrod Brown and is even more a man of the people. He's progressive where it counts and speaks well on his feet. I think a matchup between him and Gym Jordan would end up with me having 2 Democratic Senators.
There are some solid Republicans to challenge Jordan if he runs. Haven't heard anything from Kasich yet but he burned his bridges with the T**** party so he may not even try.
I've been a Ryan fan ever.since he stood up an railed against the Iraq war, he's never disappointed.
Amen. I went to school with Rob Portman and my brother was a friend of his. We don’t know what happened to him. My mother, who still lives in Ohio, has written him countless letters hoping he would “see the light,” remembering how wonderful and charitable his mother was. Looks like he finally had enough of the darkness.. who knows, but let’s hope the vacuum is filled by someone Sherrod can work with.
And yet he cites "partisan gridlock" in Washington as a reason for not running for re-election. He contributed to it! I just *hope* that not being beholden to the party will free him to vote for impeachment, but I am not holding my breath.
I think Portman had to make a biz decision. Fall in line or you don’t get the dark pac money from the billionaires for your election campaign. This makes impossible to compromise in DC. Which is how it’s supposed to work.
OMG, I hope you’re right. My bandwidth is consumed with ending the filibuster, pressing BidenHarris and new Senate Majority Leader Schumer, and working for any Democrats running in 2022. Can’t seem to sleep. Can’t seem to stop worrying. Today, going out of my comfort zone and calling Congress. Sending first of my every day postcards to the White House, titled “Keep Your Promises” ❤️🤍💙
I sure hope so! I can definitely see a likely scenario where that works out well for Democrats, especially if we can get Congress to work over the next few years and reduce the misinformation. And generally, I like the idea of having a third party, but the Patriot Party still makes me shudder!
If the GOP splits in half and hate each other. With no real opposition, what is going to contain the centrifugal forces in the current Democrat Alliance; holding together centrists and progressists?
Once the Republican madness is gone, the Democratic Centrists can become the Sane Republicans, and the Democratic Progressives can take over the Democratic party.
I think we need to come to a common understanding that the current Republican Party is neither conservative, nor democratic (small-d), nor entirely sane. It is a rogue separatist party, and is incapable of forging a coherent party platform or winning honest elections. What it stands for today certainly existed in the 1950's and 1960's, but it was in the madhouse fringes, and no one took it seriously.
Progress. Nothing like success and progress to maintain momentum.
Joe B today is giving a major address on race (and therefore class, crime, economy). He’s addressing s progressive agenda, in his style. I feel that Elizabeth and Bernie (my wing) are in line with Biden’s agenda. I anticipate AOC and friends will be on board.
Dems will squabble, even fiercely quarrel, but they (we) are not splitting. A full-strength major party with (some) recent tradition of reform is needed for the challenges ahead. Let the Repugs enjoy their own cannibal feast; I certainly will!
I keep hoping that Trump will be moving to prison for crimes committed in New York. I do know he will have to spend some time and money fighting at least three lawsuits.
Attorney Roberta Kaplan is about to make Trump’s life extremely difficult By Karen Heller January 18 at 5:00 AM CT
I read that. I’m impatient... I’m wondering why things haven’t moved faster after he left office. I’m sure all of these lawsuits are a slow-moving process but I thought there would be more news about them.
As a light blue longterm RINO, this is what I am seeing as well. The thinking of those re registering is to destroy the "old RINOs" and create the new Republican party. Which will be pure trumpism. My establishment Republican friends and family are in a "waiting it out" mode, condemning the violence but not the reason, looking to 2022 and 2024 to restore their power. The reality of a potential 3rd party splinter has not yet set in. I remind them of Ross Perot and The Reform Party of 1992 leading to the crushing defeat of HW Bush. The Little General managed to get 19% of the popular vote, primarily from other disaffected Republicans. These significant 3rd party fractures do not bode well for the party. At this point, I say good. Burn it down. It can no longer be salvaged. The insane have taken over the asylum, imagine that. Ha! Perhaps an actual compassionate conservative party will finally rise like a Phoenix from the ashes, but I am not holding my breath.
You are probably correct in your assumptions. However, the fact that some of the insurrectionists are identified as NPA does not always bear on their political affiliations. Many states do not require voters to declare their political party. If you looked for me in Georgia, there would be no political party declared - that information is not requested upon registration.
First, thank you so much for your posts. They are my favorite source of news and have gotten me through so many sleepless nights this year!
One thing about the post tonight, however: I’d caution you to think that the many people who have changed their voter affiliations from Republican are doing it because they are disgusted with Trump.
Quite to the contrary, many are doing it because the LOVE Trump and are angry with the Republican Party for insufficiently supporting him. I know this first hand because my father is one of the former Florida republicans who proudly did just this, and I know he is definitely typical of a “type” you might meet in Florida, which is one of many unique “types” of people I know in Florida who think Trump was the greatest president to ever walk the earth and are in complete denial of his lies.
The influx of newly registered NPA voters in Florida last year also concerned me for the same reason, which appears to have played out in the votes. As such, I looked up a few of the arrested insurrectionists on a site that allows you to search the voter registrations for people in several states and found that quite a few were registered NPA.
I suspect that the Patriot Party could become a legitimate third party, taking the 25-30% of Americans (who I think are Trump loyalists based on polls on various topics) with it. And I believe it is going to be popular with far more demographics than one might think.
I only hope the Senate can muster the courage to prevent him from becoming president again so that his party might lose steam before fully taking hold.
I've been thinking about the numbers. The election came out 81M to 74M. After Dec 6, it's not very likely that many of those 82M are going to switch to Republican. Any split in the Republican Party is going to have to share that 74M, and the Trump vote is now seriously tainted. I don't believe there were ever 74M Trumpites out there. An awful lot of them were business Republicans, elderly Eisenhower Republicans, and single-issue voters who were willing to overlook philandering and abuse of power, but who will draw the line at sedition. If we take at its face the "75% of Republicans think Trump sucks" figure some media has published, it could reduce that 74M to as little as 18M that will stay loyal to Trump. If we take your estimate of (say) 30% of all Americans as solid Trump supporters, that's 46M, with only 28M supporting the business Republicans.
Either way, as Heather has pointed out, the Republican Party is in deep trouble. The math no longer works for them, even with gerrymandering and voter suppression. If they try to reunite the split party, they'll lose a lot of the 28M to 56M non-Trump Republicans: the business community has already indicated what they think of Trumpism. If they allow the split to become two parties, neither split will have enough votes to hold Senate seats.
The Republicans' best strategy is to take Trump entirely out of the equation; convicting, then disqualifying him in the upcoming impeachment trial is the low-hanging fruit. All they need to pull together is a coalition of 17 Republican Senators to convict him. Trumpism is a personality cult, not a political party. If they can remove the Personality from any future runs, the cult will wither.
81M. It's late, and my proofreader elves have gone to bed....
We knew what you meant:)
It's still larger than 74m. You're counting just fine.
Make it so.
I concur with your notion, Natasha, of the so-called Patriot Party, as far as its legitimacy. I like the possibility of its potential to attract 25% of the electorate. However, I do not see it a threat to the growing Democratic Party base. I see it as a major threat to conservatism and the Republican Party.
First, I believe the Dems have learned from Obama’s first two years, that we will not sleep-walk into the mid-term election. We will grow an enthusiastic base. And we already see this energy playing out in the shifting winds of the political landscape ....
Georgia and Arizona offer stark contrasts of the polarities of our politics today. The two states have four sterling Senators, all Democrats! Let’s wrap our heads around that for a moment. And, the conservative movement and Republican Party in both states are doing their best to self-destruct. In each state, one of the newly elected Dem Senators will have to run again in 2022, and by then the disparity between Democrats and the loonies will be all the more stark.
This ‘civil war’ within conservatism has the potential to advance progressive prospects in 2022. For instance, In PA., the progressive and popular Lt Governor hs already announced his candidancy for the open Senate seat in ’22. His already strong brand can only be helped by the brouhaha in PA. politics that we all saw during the Nov. election. I suspect this dynamic will play out in many other states, as well.
I can only laugh with glee at this brouhahaha!
Capture Rob Portman's open Ohio seat in 2022. Sherrod needs like-minded company.
Rep. Tim Ryan comes to mind. He's tight with labor like Sherrod Brown and is even more a man of the people. He's progressive where it counts and speaks well on his feet. I think a matchup between him and Gym Jordan would end up with me having 2 Democratic Senators.
There are some solid Republicans to challenge Jordan if he runs. Haven't heard anything from Kasich yet but he burned his bridges with the T**** party so he may not even try.
I've been a Ryan fan ever.since he stood up an railed against the Iraq war, he's never disappointed.
Jordan can't even tie his own necktie. And it's Dim Jordan. Not Gym, Dim.
Ha! Yes!
Gym is a 13 year old boy dressed in a college freshman’s clothes. How he looks, acts, and sounds...
He is beyond repulsive.
Mostly bat-s*it crazy, scary, sad.
Amen. I went to school with Rob Portman and my brother was a friend of his. We don’t know what happened to him. My mother, who still lives in Ohio, has written him countless letters hoping he would “see the light,” remembering how wonderful and charitable his mother was. Looks like he finally had enough of the darkness.. who knows, but let’s hope the vacuum is filled by someone Sherrod can work with.
And yet he cites "partisan gridlock" in Washington as a reason for not running for re-election. He contributed to it! I just *hope* that not being beholden to the party will free him to vote for impeachment, but I am not holding my breath.
I think Portman had to make a biz decision. Fall in line or you don’t get the dark pac money from the billionaires for your election campaign. This makes impossible to compromise in DC. Which is how it’s supposed to work.
He did make a comment on our local NPR station this AM about now being free not to have to spend "the next two years fundraising."
I think he meant to say, "spend the next two years selling his soul to the Kochs and end democracy."
This has GOT to change!
Interesting.... I want to know more...
Jane Mayer, Dark Money
Jane Mayer, Democracy in Chains
I bet he votes to convict. By announcing he wont seek re election he doesn't have to go through the pain of of getting primary-ed by Jim Jordan.
OMG, I hope you’re right. My bandwidth is consumed with ending the filibuster, pressing BidenHarris and new Senate Majority Leader Schumer, and working for any Democrats running in 2022. Can’t seem to sleep. Can’t seem to stop worrying. Today, going out of my comfort zone and calling Congress. Sending first of my every day postcards to the White House, titled “Keep Your Promises” ❤️🤍💙
My biggest concern is the repubs stonewalling all legislation as usual. Not being able to organize the senate is a bad omen.
TaDa! Organized!
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/25/mitch-mcconnell-agrees-senate-filibuster-462466
Thanks for that idea. Where are you sending them to, specifically?
President Biden, The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20500
I sure hope so! I can definitely see a likely scenario where that works out well for Democrats, especially if we can get Congress to work over the next few years and reduce the misinformation. And generally, I like the idea of having a third party, but the Patriot Party still makes me shudder!
If the GOP splits in half and hate each other. With no real opposition, what is going to contain the centrifugal forces in the current Democrat Alliance; holding together centrists and progressists?
Once the Republican madness is gone, the Democratic Centrists can become the Sane Republicans, and the Democratic Progressives can take over the Democratic party.
I think we need to come to a common understanding that the current Republican Party is neither conservative, nor democratic (small-d), nor entirely sane. It is a rogue separatist party, and is incapable of forging a coherent party platform or winning honest elections. What it stands for today certainly existed in the 1950's and 1960's, but it was in the madhouse fringes, and no one took it seriously.
Well said, Joseph. At their 2020 convention Repugs chose to have no platform. They officially stand for nothing.
Progress. Nothing like success and progress to maintain momentum.
Joe B today is giving a major address on race (and therefore class, crime, economy). He’s addressing s progressive agenda, in his style. I feel that Elizabeth and Bernie (my wing) are in line with Biden’s agenda. I anticipate AOC and friends will be on board.
Dems will squabble, even fiercely quarrel, but they (we) are not splitting. A full-strength major party with (some) recent tradition of reform is needed for the challenges ahead. Let the Repugs enjoy their own cannibal feast; I certainly will!
I keep hoping that Trump will be moving to prison for crimes committed in New York. I do know he will have to spend some time and money fighting at least three lawsuits.
Attorney Roberta Kaplan is about to make Trump’s life extremely difficult By Karen Heller January 18 at 5:00 AM CT
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/roberta-kaplan-lawyer-attorney-trump/2021/01/17/ae8890f2-50f8-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html%3foutputType=amp
I read that. I’m impatient... I’m wondering why things haven’t moved faster after he left office. I’m sure all of these lawsuits are a slow-moving process but I thought there would be more news about them.
So did I! I’m impatient about that, too. Subpoenas should be delivered and the deliveries splashed across the media.
I’m wondering if there is a strategy there... impeachment then grab him and drag him away...
If only. . . .
Makes excellent sense.
As a light blue longterm RINO, this is what I am seeing as well. The thinking of those re registering is to destroy the "old RINOs" and create the new Republican party. Which will be pure trumpism. My establishment Republican friends and family are in a "waiting it out" mode, condemning the violence but not the reason, looking to 2022 and 2024 to restore their power. The reality of a potential 3rd party splinter has not yet set in. I remind them of Ross Perot and The Reform Party of 1992 leading to the crushing defeat of HW Bush. The Little General managed to get 19% of the popular vote, primarily from other disaffected Republicans. These significant 3rd party fractures do not bode well for the party. At this point, I say good. Burn it down. It can no longer be salvaged. The insane have taken over the asylum, imagine that. Ha! Perhaps an actual compassionate conservative party will finally rise like a Phoenix from the ashes, but I am not holding my breath.
You are probably correct in your assumptions. However, the fact that some of the insurrectionists are identified as NPA does not always bear on their political affiliations. Many states do not require voters to declare their political party. If you looked for me in Georgia, there would be no political party declared - that information is not requested upon registration.