Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Philoctetes's avatar

As always thank you for this history, Professor!

Paradoxically, the worse things get, the more optimistic I become. I know things can go south – a miscalculation among these bumbling idiots and the whole human project perishes. But if we survive that and things get very bad . . . well, things are often bad until they are not. There are Black Swan events that can topple regimes. Assad was going to go on forever . . . until he didn’t. The Soviet Union and Eastern Block were nowhere near collapse . . . until they were. Hitler and the Wehrmacht were invincible . . . until they were not.

A wig-maker’s apprentice comes to collect a bill from a British soldier in Boston and we are no longer a British colony. A few bad harvests in France and Louis XVI’s head comes off. A volcanic eruption in the sixth century, and the Arabs soon transform Rome’s and Persia’s empires – and history. Rome’s western Empire was going to be imperium sine fine, until a series of unfortunate events conspired against them between 378 and 407 CE.

You get the picture. Things can change, the unforeseen become the inevitable. A searing assassination. An indiscrete massacre. A charismatic leader who expresses our collective "Enough!"

History says anything is possible. We just lived that with the pandemic. Expect the unexpected. And I hold that just as the Eastern Block was de facto Soviet, until it was not, the US may well be the US, until it is not. I cannot help but wonder how long people in blue states will tolerate seeing their resources handed out to red, without reciprocity and with gross mockery and abuse. And what will the breaking point be and look like ? Perhaps Tuberville and California are just the beginning.

While the Confederacy might for a moment have a stranglehold on our government, hold space for enormous change. Barring nuclear "pique", not even Trump controls history’s tide. He merely rides it with the rest of us.

Some time ago I stood where Hitler stood at the rally ground in Nuremberg. It is now the site of all manner of diversity initiatives and festivals throughout the year. The vision that monster had for Germany was a spring that only coiled against him. A long view, yes, but that is history, is it not? A very long game indeed, and one damn thing after another.

Expand full comment
Marli's avatar

"But Hegseth refused to meet with Democrats on the committee, and they made it clear that they will not make the vote easy for Republicans" - the Democrats AND Republicans must not allow confirmation of such an unqualified unskilled person for one of the most crucial positions in the government!

Expand full comment
810 more comments...

No posts