Heather's relentless pursuit of knowledge and her willingness to explore new ideas without hesitation is inspiring. Her contributions not only enrich our understanding but also encourage others to embrace curiosity and intellectual rigor.
Thank you, Heather, for your unwavering commitment to excellence and your fearless pursuit of truth!
Good morning, Heather. Leonard Peltier still has not been pardoned after all these years. Could you write a piece about him and encourage your readers to contact President Biden asking him to pardon Peltier? This would give a great boost to the entire indigenous worldl!
I agree! It is amazing that Dr. Richardson is a University Professor, writes books, interviews President Biden(twice), and writes this newsletter on a continual basis.
Every once in a while, when the Country is in dire straits the right people come along to save our Democratic form of Government. Dr. Richardson and President Joe Biden are just two of those people.
Importantly and with the facts, in today's Letter, HCR, pointed to the contribution of Immigration, of the IMMIGRANTS! to the US' economy.
'The unemployment rate was also good, dropping slightly to 3.8% in March. According to economist Steven Rattner of Morning Joe, the United States has now had 26 consecutive months—more than two years—of unemployment under 4%, the longest stretch of unemployment that low since the late 1960s.'
'Rattner pointed out that immigrants have helped to push U.S. growth since the pandemic by adding millions of new workers to the labor market. As native-born workers have aged into retirement, immigrants have taken their places and' “been essential to America’s post-COVID labor market recovery.” (Letter)
'How immigration has powered America’s miraculous job market growth' (Sources: Bloomberg and 'Chartbook' a substack newsletter from Adam Tooze)
'It’s the kind of headline that the worst people alive will probably warp to fit their narratives, but Goldman Sachs thinks that the answer to some puzzling US economic data is a jump in immigration. US economic growth was far stronger than most people expected last year, thanks to some absolutely monster jobs reports and consumer spending that made a mockery of fears that bad vibes might cause a recession. However, despite robust job creation the US unemployment rate has actually edged up from a five-decade low of 3.4 per a year ago to 3.9 per cent. At the same time, employment surveys of companies and households have been diverging sharply, further confounding many economists. Goldman Sachs reckons that the answer to “one of the biggest puzzles of the last year” is a sharp increase in net immigration, which has increased the size of the American labour force and enhanced US economic growth potential. Recent studies suggest that Census data used for the household survey of the employment report understated immigration in 2023. We estimate that immigration was 1½mn above the trend of roughly 1mn per year in 2023, which implies an 80k boost to the monthly breakeven rate of job growth to 155k. We expect immigration to be about 1mn higher than usual this year, implying breakeven job growth of around 125k and a 0.3pp boost to potential GDP growth in 2024 from faster labor force growth. The result is that Goldman — already one of the more optimistic investment banks on Wall Street — is once again lifting its actual US growth forecast for 2024.'
NO surprise here. Immigrants coming to the US can be expected to earn $30,000 a year at a minimum ($15/hour 40 hours a week = $600 but most work a lot more than 40 hours a week and often hold two jobs so that even a lower pay rate yields dollar income).
We have had about 1.5 legal immigrants and as many as 1.5-3.0 others (asylum seekers, illegal, or undocumented immigrants) per year. If you add 10 million every 5 years, the GDP impact is a base of $300 billion and if you use a multiplier (how many times the money circulates in the economy and results in the purchase and delivery of goods and services) of 3 you get $0.9 trillion.
Keeping in mind that much of the earnings of immigrants are not reported, the overall effect on the economy is probably even bigger. Here are some numbers from macrotrends:
U.S. gdp for 2022 was $25,462.70B, a 9.21% increase from 2021.
U.S. gdp for 2021 was $23,315.08B, a 10.71% increase from 2020.
U.S. gdp for 2020 was $21,060.47B, a 1.5% decline from 2019.
U.S. gdp for 2019 was $21,380.98B, a 4.13% increase from 2018.
The St. Louis Fed reports 2023 GDP or almost $28 trillion.
Think about it. Canada accepted over a million immigrants and refugees last year, in a country of 40 million. Imagine what that will add to the economy.
Not that much actually. You have to break down the immigrants to show how many are of working age and actually employed or productive in other measurable ways. If the one million represent families, you'd have to break those down by how many are working, and how many minors or elderly. Canada's GDP for 2024 is roughly $2.3-2.5 trillion. Even if you generously assume the $2.5 trillion number and 100% working and productive immigrants, and further that they will each contribute a pro rata and equivalent to GDP, at most you get a $575 billion additur. This is not necessarily trifling, but in the real world, you are probably looking at $200 billion and maybe $300 billion optimistically.
One of the things people forget when talking about the value of immigrants is that at least at the outset, there are HUGE expenses associated with amalgamating immigrants into a new culture.
It is also not valid to extrapolate from the US experience because we get a very large number of high skilled and entrepreneurial immigrants as compared with most other countries.
Fern, 100% of the increase in employment was part time. Imagine that. We still have Open Borders. Illegal immigration. We started a war in the Ukraine and a half a million are dead. War has ignited in the Middle East and the administration of the Elite has turned on the one Democracy in the region. I guess they had it coming no? And our debt, cumulative inflation and deficit have skyrocketed to unimaginable levels. Otherwise, if you take it from Heather, things are A OK . But hope runs eternal no? ;)
Your dedication to these daily letters is so greatly appreciated, HCR. 💙
Yes indeed!
Heather's relentless pursuit of knowledge and her willingness to explore new ideas without hesitation is inspiring. Her contributions not only enrich our understanding but also encourage others to embrace curiosity and intellectual rigor.
Thank you, Heather, for your unwavering commitment to excellence and your fearless pursuit of truth!
Add Heather thank you for being willing to share you exceptional wealth of knowledge! Remarkable...
Good morning, Heather. Leonard Peltier still has not been pardoned after all these years. Could you write a piece about him and encourage your readers to contact President Biden asking him to pardon Peltier? This would give a great boost to the entire indigenous worldl!
Ditto
I agree! It is amazing that Dr. Richardson is a University Professor, writes books, interviews President Biden(twice), and writes this newsletter on a continual basis.
Every once in a while, when the Country is in dire straits the right people come along to save our Democratic form of Government. Dr. Richardson and President Joe Biden are just two of those people.
A regular Mildred Gillars
A Nazi propagandist? BS.
AMEN
Importantly and with the facts, in today's Letter, HCR, pointed to the contribution of Immigration, of the IMMIGRANTS! to the US' economy.
'The unemployment rate was also good, dropping slightly to 3.8% in March. According to economist Steven Rattner of Morning Joe, the United States has now had 26 consecutive months—more than two years—of unemployment under 4%, the longest stretch of unemployment that low since the late 1960s.'
'Rattner pointed out that immigrants have helped to push U.S. growth since the pandemic by adding millions of new workers to the labor market. As native-born workers have aged into retirement, immigrants have taken their places and' “been essential to America’s post-COVID labor market recovery.” (Letter)
'How immigration has powered America’s miraculous job market growth' (Sources: Bloomberg and 'Chartbook' a substack newsletter from Adam Tooze)
'It’s the kind of headline that the worst people alive will probably warp to fit their narratives, but Goldman Sachs thinks that the answer to some puzzling US economic data is a jump in immigration. US economic growth was far stronger than most people expected last year, thanks to some absolutely monster jobs reports and consumer spending that made a mockery of fears that bad vibes might cause a recession. However, despite robust job creation the US unemployment rate has actually edged up from a five-decade low of 3.4 per a year ago to 3.9 per cent. At the same time, employment surveys of companies and households have been diverging sharply, further confounding many economists. Goldman Sachs reckons that the answer to “one of the biggest puzzles of the last year” is a sharp increase in net immigration, which has increased the size of the American labour force and enhanced US economic growth potential. Recent studies suggest that Census data used for the household survey of the employment report understated immigration in 2023. We estimate that immigration was 1½mn above the trend of roughly 1mn per year in 2023, which implies an 80k boost to the monthly breakeven rate of job growth to 155k. We expect immigration to be about 1mn higher than usual this year, implying breakeven job growth of around 125k and a 0.3pp boost to potential GDP growth in 2024 from faster labor force growth. The result is that Goldman — already one of the more optimistic investment banks on Wall Street — is once again lifting its actual US growth forecast for 2024.'
by Robin Wigglesworth Alphaville FT
***
Fern
NO surprise here. Immigrants coming to the US can be expected to earn $30,000 a year at a minimum ($15/hour 40 hours a week = $600 but most work a lot more than 40 hours a week and often hold two jobs so that even a lower pay rate yields dollar income).
We have had about 1.5 legal immigrants and as many as 1.5-3.0 others (asylum seekers, illegal, or undocumented immigrants) per year. If you add 10 million every 5 years, the GDP impact is a base of $300 billion and if you use a multiplier (how many times the money circulates in the economy and results in the purchase and delivery of goods and services) of 3 you get $0.9 trillion.
Keeping in mind that much of the earnings of immigrants are not reported, the overall effect on the economy is probably even bigger. Here are some numbers from macrotrends:
U.S. gdp for 2022 was $25,462.70B, a 9.21% increase from 2021.
U.S. gdp for 2021 was $23,315.08B, a 10.71% increase from 2020.
U.S. gdp for 2020 was $21,060.47B, a 1.5% decline from 2019.
U.S. gdp for 2019 was $21,380.98B, a 4.13% increase from 2018.
The St. Louis Fed reports 2023 GDP or almost $28 trillion.
Thank you Anil Madan for these numbers from Macrotrends!
Think about it. Canada accepted over a million immigrants and refugees last year, in a country of 40 million. Imagine what that will add to the economy.
J. Nol
Not that much actually. You have to break down the immigrants to show how many are of working age and actually employed or productive in other measurable ways. If the one million represent families, you'd have to break those down by how many are working, and how many minors or elderly. Canada's GDP for 2024 is roughly $2.3-2.5 trillion. Even if you generously assume the $2.5 trillion number and 100% working and productive immigrants, and further that they will each contribute a pro rata and equivalent to GDP, at most you get a $575 billion additur. This is not necessarily trifling, but in the real world, you are probably looking at $200 billion and maybe $300 billion optimistically.
One of the things people forget when talking about the value of immigrants is that at least at the outset, there are HUGE expenses associated with amalgamating immigrants into a new culture.
It is also not valid to extrapolate from the US experience because we get a very large number of high skilled and entrepreneurial immigrants as compared with most other countries.
Fern, 100% of the increase in employment was part time. Imagine that. We still have Open Borders. Illegal immigration. We started a war in the Ukraine and a half a million are dead. War has ignited in the Middle East and the administration of the Elite has turned on the one Democracy in the region. I guess they had it coming no? And our debt, cumulative inflation and deficit have skyrocketed to unimaginable levels. Otherwise, if you take it from Heather, things are A OK . But hope runs eternal no? ;)
David, possibly the trump tax cuts and his handling of the economy during the COVID epidemic had something to do with our high debt.
HCR's letters are great, absolutely agree with all the kudos!!