Herb, honestly -- who cares? Don't believe them no matter if they show either candidate besting the other. The poll that counts is in November. Assume and act as though it will be close, and hope that it's a blue tide that sweeps over the country, up and down the ballots.
Doug, yes hope for a blue tide - but work for it too if you are able. All hands on deck on this election with postcards, texts and calls to voters, help get young people registered, donate to good candidates, etc.
Democracy is not a spectator sport. The blue tide is us. Let’s all do what we can. (If you need a place to start, www.fieldteam6.com or subscribe to Jessica Craven’s newsletter, Chop Wood, Carry Water here on Substack. )
Hi Sheila -- yes, I think I'll try Field Team 6. What I won't do is make phone calls -- I absolutely hate it when I get such calls, be they from telemarketers or political candidates. I'm willing to send post cards -- and did so 8 years ago.
As to Chop Wood, I subscribed for a while last year, but honestly, I find it exhausting and demoralizing to be constantly reminded of where we stand. I'm well aware of the present situation, and have been following politics closely since Gore v Bush. LFFA provides me with what I need, in a very balanced way, as her readers know. And of course, Joyce Vance for legal insight.
Doug, whatever activities suit you, do that. I made calls to help register voters last year and it was fine. But, like you, it isn’t my first choice. Postcarding in a group of friends has become a way to bring people into being more active without making them uncomfortable. It all helps. And yes to the sanity provided by LFAA, Joyce Vance and others here on Substack.
Doug, if you haven't been reading Chop Wood for a while, know that Jessica often posts long lists of the accomplishments we readers have had a hand in, or just lists of good news items. It's encouraging to read them.
I also connect to Sunrise Movement, and made phone calls with them for Summer Lee last week. It's fun to work with other people. My sister writes postcards. Usually people who are involved in climate issues are also for the working people, Medicare for All, and the betterment of all people, except the billionaires, who don't need our help!
Yes! And as a youth voter org, they may help save Biden from his own "ironclad" unconditional support of Bibi Netanyahu's vicious killing and starvation and slaughter (with US bombs) of thousands and thousands of innocent children in Gaza. Believe me, Biden seems to be out of touch in his White House Tower, but the young people today, and not just those brave students risking arrest on campuses, are Appalled by what they have seen of the blanket bombing of a people Israel is charged with providing for, that is 70% women and children. Sunrise Movement seems to avoided the fray for now.
So yes, there is SO much common ground that you find, even when calling grumpy fair weather registered voters. But we need Youth organizations to help us overcome the huge shadow of Israel's cruel bombardment, and Biden's mixed record on climate.
Not to mention the loss of abortion rights, which many young women think of as happening "on Biden's watch." Our worlds are so different now, not just because of generations, but because of our media silos.
Yes. I'm concerned about what the young people are thinking of this all happening on us oldsters' watch. I hid in a practice room during the Vietnam era, and only woke up when a colleague had to go on a starvation diet (bananas and water, only) for a month in order to avoid being sent over. And then, what happened? The banks, the oil producers, the MIC took over. You were either part of the overlord class or the servant class.
I'm sorry for the mess we are now in. But I'm also supremely grateful (and donate) to the youth organizatons helping to correct the situation.
Check your voter registration now and be sure it's up to date. Make a plan for how you are going to vote. And make up your mind that no one will stop you from voting.
Ever since our Dem Central Committee worked w the Repub Central committee last month on a State ethics bill, I've been getting emails from State Repubs. This am our wealthy State Delegate sent an email invitation to his May 5 fundraiser barbeque. It included these words for Dems: stupid, wrecking havoc, causing energy inflation, lawlessness, (and the Repubs as: fellow Patriots, like minded adults, real solutions. " I like it better if we use words that are based on facts and not name-calling. Not that I don't slip into that behavior more times than I'd like!
Dems send inane emails and mountains of them. Repubs are just lying bastards, period. I think I will donate to maddogpac.com if I can get some response from them re sharing my info. They put billboards in critical places.
Polls have never won an election people do! Vote blue. Where their party is not listed example judges check to see who nominated them. GOP or Dem. Governor or president
Don´t just hope. Organize. Create groups of like minded people and get together to vote.. to learn the issues and vote on them. The media is shaped by ´profit´... Hearst was the first big news publisher in the US. His slogan... if it ´bleeds´, it leads was what he told his reporters.. We saw history made the other day when Johnson and McConnell backed the Ukraine.. Of course, they may have recd. money from the fossil fuel companies and the arms industry.
No. They are not offering polls that have him falling "further and further behind." Perhaps on Earth II, but not here. As a matter of fact, what has happened with the most recent polls is they show Biden has raised his percentages to the point that any "lead" by Trump is well within the margin of error. What that means is kwitchurbitchin and go to work on the many projects that are working to build voter participation. As my old boss Willie Brown said, run like you're 10 points down till election day and don't worry about the polls and you can pop champagne after the polls close.
A reminder that Democrats have the power to sweep by registering people currently not on the voting rolls and not polled. 60% of unregistered voters have never been asked to register. To win in 2024, FT6 will reach out to "millions of unregistered likely Democrats using our one-of-a-kind database and every outreach method possible (phone and text, postcard, email and targeted ad, and in-person too), where new Democratic voters will make the most impact – in the most flippable states and districts." https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Also, Focus for Democracy's informational meeting for the 2024 election cycle is tonight,
Good points Daniel. (Taylor Swift, please continue your efforts to register voters.)
We also need to overcome all of the gaslighting by Trump, the maganazis and the white faux-Christian nationalists.
They are still hammering on the border, when Trump's wall is like a sieve and inflation which has come down to around 3% and gasoline prices which we have kept arbitrarily low for over 75 years with subsidies to the oil/gas/coal industries.
When he was about 8, my son swam the backstroke on the local swim team. At an early Saturday morning meet, he was in the last heat of his age group, 25 yards. He won the race with several lengths to spare and earned an “A” time. When his coach asked him about the race, he said he thought he was in last place because when he looked to either side he didn’t see another swimmer. Very proudly, his coach said, “I want you to swim like you’re in last place from now on.” He didn’t swim much longer after that, but I think he took the coach’s advice when he became a very skilled lacrosse player and play for nearly the next 20 years.
I think she's pretty good. I was a supporter when she announced she was running for president. I think four years as VP has allowed her to learn what she didn't know before. If anything ever happened to Biden I think she could take over and the Republicans would find out all their BS about her was just that.
Thanks. My impression, which goes back quite a ways, was that she was a machine politician, more or less in the neo-lib category. Your comments are reassuring, in that I generally respect your judgment.
Yup, again. You never told me about W.B. He is the master, and I loved his hats. He's looking good as ever, for 90 years. I wish he would get in it again.
Trump's reelection is in deep trouble due to these issues. Biden's smart foreign policy makes America look better globally, undercutting Trump's image as a strong leader. Plus, the indictment of Trump allies in Arizona damages his reputation, highlighting concerns about his honesty and commitment to democracy. Biden's steady leadership contrasts sharply with Trump's chaotic style, hurting Trump's chances with voters. Oh, and I forgot to mention ROE V WADE.... Trump is finished.
Share this letter every day. I post it in comments on Fox, et al and tag every MAGAt I can think of. I also share it on comments of far Freedom Caucus members.
Might be a losing battle but if the media won't report it I will.
Be a "troll for the good of the nation" lol. Even Trump watches (or did) MSNBC / CNN for his own perverse intel. And maybe get a more realistic picture these days of the "writing on the wall". Trump is a master of Agitprop (1984 wasn't so far-fetched at all, Orwell had only to check out Goebbels' masterful use of hateful propaganda and aggrievement for raw material - not to mention the Soviets) Big lies often repeated with opposition voices stymied and silenced work wonders on large populations. Check out Russia China North Korea today.
I do much the same with several authors. What’s interesting to me is the level of, dare I say, intelligent responses from readers who follow HRC and others of her ilk and those who have drunk the koolaid. I learn so much from this camp, and from the koolaid group? Not so much. It’s really a great example of how deeply repeated lies have sunk in with a part of our country.
That's an interesting comment, Lynn. It mirrors my own experience; when I share writers like Jim Wright or Professor RIchardson, the "rebuttal" comments are either really intellectual "nu-huh" or "I don't believe that" or some of the deepest candy-coated mansplaining I have ever read.
Ally, however, it’s been proven that, if a group hears the same information over and over again, some will believe it (regardless of its truthfulness). Perhaps some tiny nugget of what we share will strike home and cause them to think “I know that “nugget” is true. What if the other stuff is true as well?”
Mary, in the small cohort (mostly retired local cops from multiple agencies; we all worked together on calls at various times) that this represents, most of the folks leaning my way (almost all of us women) have stopped engaging. I can only take so much candycoated mansplaining from these guys, and several others have stopped engaging with them all together.
Ah, Ally, I bet you get some really deep mansplaining. Our neighbor falls into that now and then although he has been better lately. But his going to instruct the little woman turns into a change in voice tone and facial expression. He had a really hard time around his back surgery (on his 80th birthday no less) and has become a little nicer.....maybe thought he was having a brush with death. Funny, how that can change peoples' perspective.
That is so true, Lynn. I get such valuable intelligent information from HCR's commenters versus the ignorant nasty name-calling lie based bull I get from the other side.
Christopher, just ran into someone who didn’t know that corporations with profits of over a billion dollars per year now have to pay 15% taxes (instead of zero) on those profits.
Forget about the "candidates." The election is not Biden vs Trump. The election is democracy vs fascism.
Also:
People don't want to vote for democracy (Biden) because they think Biden is not trying to help the Palestinians? Do they already forget Trump's Middle East policy, bought and paid for by Sheldon Adelson? If fascism wins in November, Bibi NaziYahoo will feel perfectly free to commence the Palestinian Final Solution. There is no "I'm not voting for the lesser of two evils." You're either voting for less evil or more evil. Not voting for less evil IS voting for more evil. And in a 2nd and last term, democracy can treat Bibi NaziYahoo as he deserves to be treated. If one does not get this, one is not nearly as "woke" as Little Ronnie InSanitis accuses one of being.
Bibi Hibi Jibi won't go on his own. We have to make him go.
Biden can't/won't make Bibi go in this term.
But Biden can/will make Bibi go in Biden's 2nd term.
Why not now? Research who contributes disproportionately to BOTH Democratic and Republican campaigns. Money talks.
I'm not saying, Give more to Joe's campaign.
I'm saying, let Joe know that he wins your vote, and let Democratic Senators and candidates and ESPECIALLY Democratic Congresspeople and candidates (And Republicans too, don't forget.) that they will get your vote ONLY if Bibi goes.
Now, don't forget: Bibi will likely be replaced by someone worse. But that Joe makes Bibi go will transmit a powerful message to any of Bibi's likely successors: Don't count on the US President to back you up, to write you a blank check, as the US Congress has done for Israel for the past 76 years. Oh, the check may be blank. But there will be nowhere on that check where you can just fill in the amount you like. In fact, it won't be a check. It will be checkmate.
I’ve tried arguing that to the people who post that they won’t vote for Biden due to Gaza. I will do that over and over again. Counter the Big Lie with the Big Truth!
Keep trying that argument. What matters is not how many people agree with you. What matters is that you keep trying, and that some people may agree with you. For all the difference in the "popular" vote in the 2016 and 2020 elections, the truth is, Hillary Clinton lost in the Electoral College (Hint, Hillary: The Presidential Election is NOT decided by a 3 million vote margin in California. Ask Bill: He knows this. He told you this.) on the basis of well less than 100,000 popular votes, which were enough to tip enough states in Trump's favor. In turn, Trump lost to Biden by well less than 100,000 votes in pretty much the same states that elected Trump in 2016. Biden's 7 million popular vote "advantage" meant DOODLEY SQUAT. And there is NO reason to believe the 2024 Presidential Election will be any different than the 2016 and 2020 Presidential Elections. In fact, any Presidential Election can be decided by as few as a couple of hundred votes. Ask George W. Bush and Al Gore about this. So Marge, you know what to do. Keep doing it. And tell others to keep doing it, too. Thank you. Robert
Herb, may be the better question should be who are they NOT polling - and why aren’t they polling those people?
But I refer you to Simon Rosenberg’s “Hopium Chronicles” …. this is the professor’s (HCR) principal source regarding polling. Ooohhh and see David Lehnherr’s comment and link above.
How many people answer their phone when it rings? How many look to see who is calling? How many don't pick it up if they don't recognize the caller? What benefit do I get when someone causes my phone to ring?
We both have mobile phones. We also have retained a VOIP line, the number for which was my phone when I moved here in '95. We have it set so that it only rings when my phone or her phone originates the call. The rest go to voicemail. We listen to the voicemails in email. The percentage of legit calls is very small.
Lately the PACs have been calling. I asked the firefighter's PAC if any of my donation would go to Republicans. He immediately answered, "I'll put you on the do not call list." Another PAC, supposedly to help disabled children lobby politicians, replied that they were non-partisan. This means, yeah we give money to Republicans to help get them elected and re-elected.
I hate PACs. They spend 25-30% of their money paying callers to bilk us out of money to re-elect Republicans. If you're going to give to a charity, give to the charity, not to a frickin' PAC.
Yep, direct to the charity. Politics aside, charities often if not mostly used third-party solicitation agencies, who take 1/3 or so of the take, and that turns out to be a significant chunk of charity income.
Polls have a history of interesting misses, it is difficult to get a statistically valid random sample esp in small populations and not just them, due to various accessibility challenges.
Kinda reminds me of the advertising industry at large. How much of that tv 4 minute plus advert space on eg MSNBC do you want? Me - about zero. Oh if i can only fast forward quickly enough to get past before that godawful "Liberty liberty" dingaline song starts. Yes, I pre record almost all programming I'm interested in. OR, pick up ad free summaries on Youtube. And turn on ad blocking much as possible.
Frank, you can laugh at this; I do. I like commercials because every time they come on I get up, leave the room and do dishes, Landry, etc. I’m pretty immobile due to arthritis and chronic pain but because of those commercials I am able to get in 5000 steps per day! LOL. Don’t tell the advertisers that I never watch any of their ads!
No, that's not really true. The opposite is true. Biden has moved up in the polls and cut any "leads" - all the of the polls to date have been put out for clickbait by a MSM desperate to attract eyeballs so the intergalactic widgetmakers who own them can sell them. They have ALL been within the margin of error. Stop worrying about the nonexistent horse race. Get involved and work to get people out to vote.
Annie, I'm sitting on my back porch in North Carolina, watching the sun rise, listening to the birds converse with one another, enjoying the sun- kissed and dew-dropped flowers in my yard.
For the first time in eight years, I can sit here with hope that Donald Trump will one day see the sun rise through a prison window.
Thanks to all those who are making an effort to encourage people to vote- not for a criminal, but for a man who has tried to save the workings of our government from MAGA crazies who only want to save themselves.
I was going to ask you where in NC you lived. I'm in southeastern NC about an hour from the beach.
If I don't take time to sit in the swing on the porch and relax my mind, I would stay angry and disillusioned all the time because of all the times and ways that Trump has slipped through the cracks of accountability.
Marj, I thought that for a long time, but I see enough people coming forward to help ensure that he will pay for his crimes. Ironically, he won't be able to "pay" his way out of these charges.
Marj, at the risk of making the problem even more difficult, having that creature in a cage is only part of an optimal solution. Its confinement should also have the restriction of being held effectively incommunicado. And the thing's friends (if any) and lawyers (if any) should also be in jeopardy if they pass any kind of communication from the incarcerated criminal. Its conviction and incarceration should not be viewed as punishment, but as rendering the thing harmless to society, for the sake of society.
Let them blather on. Let’s vote. The media and the pollsters don’t dictate reality. Make our voices count at the polling booth. Let’s show the bought for profit naysayers how strong we are.
I stopped believing the polls. I am focused on voting for President Joe Biden, for the people of the USA (whether they like Joe or not) , for our future, for peace and unity and productivity throughout the world. Joe and his amazing team are doing this....even in the midst of "hell" all around us!!! President Biden is focused on "Building Back Better", "Team Biden" is working on bringing people together while working against various systems meant to destroy....be it human or human creations meant to kill, cause conflict or destroy mind or body.
Perfect...NO....but better.
And...on the side....Israel needs a decent leader. The answer to this problem must come from the people of Israel. The college campus chaos is a response to Netanyahu's desire to destroy the Palestinians and take Gaza for himself.
Through the years some Israeli citizens have chosen to build homes on land that legally, in modern society, belongs to Palestine. These Israelis have chosen to look to ancient law, not modern law and decisions made regarding land set aside for Israel and for Palestine. In my opinion this has created problems over many years and has created groups that have chosen violence to address this issue. Gaza remains an open wound for Israel and for Palestine. Meanwhile, there are human beings starving and dying due to their existence in Palestine....their home. This is a great wrong and many will suffer if it is not addressed. "World Kitchen" tried to help and look what happened to them. Food and care remain a need for the Palestinian people.
President Biden is in a difficult position politically. We must trust him and his advisers.
I understand college students speaking out and they should have that right BUT peacefully.
I also support the students right to protest, but I don't understand the response of the university administration to call in the riot squad. They should recognize the students right to protest, but set up some rules going forward. There should be a peaceful way
to respect everyone's beliefs. Perhaps choosing a representative for each side to discuss concerns, respectfully. This would be respectful of the students feelings of helplessness and the administrations frustration at the disruption and unsightly tent city set up on their beautiful lawn. In rereading this, I guess the key word here is respect on both sides and ignore the outside noise. You are a school, dammit, teach these young kids how to protest!
Sadly, I think kids have to rebel against what they have been taught at a certain stage in developing their independence and sense of self. Ruthlessly suppressing that only feeds the rebellion.
I've noticed that over the past several years, polls have been used to shape public opinion rather than gauge it. Every major nationwide poll I am aware of since 2016 has been wrong; predicting a Clinton win in 2016, missing the size of the 2018 blue wave, a Trump win in 2020, a 'red wave' in 2022, and now a neck-and-neck race in 2024.
I do not know what has happened to polling science, but it clearly is not able to accurately predict much of anything. It also seems to have, at least in part, become a partisan tool for certain interests. This also seems to be eroding its accuracy and credibility. The best indicator for how the general election will go in November are the special elections and referenda in various states, in which actual voters voted for actual candidates/issues. Almost all of these broke heavily for the Democrats.
Interesting thought, Steve. I don't know much about the history of polls, but I know that the technology (most people I know won't answer a phone unless they know the number, and will let unfamiliar numbers leave a voicemail) coupled with your observation of eroding accuracy and credibility means that a very, very small percentage of people are responding to these calls.
Think about all of the last elections. When Obama first ran, they were expecting McCain to win. I hate these blow by blow election game night coverage. Noone expected results until morning. So I went to bed. And was very surprised to be awakened by many in DC shouting, "Yes, We did." Turned on the TV to see the celebration in Chicago's Grant Park. Four years later, media wrongly predicted Romney would win. Didn't happen. Then there was the debacle of Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote by literally millions but losing via electoral college. Then another close election in which Biden won and Trump Still purports the election was stolen. Not sure in our cell phone era who pollsters even find to survey.
The Electoral College seems the huge bug in the room, my old party put huge effort into finding recruits for any and every local state, and national office the could pick up. It seemed they liked finding cheaper senators in some small states as a key to national power, as well as a major effort to install governors and judges.
Though both parties do some Gerrymandering, my old party seems to have become particularly venal in Gerrymandering and voter suppression through corrupt voter verification and false challenges. I dug a bit deeper in North Carolina's amazing popular vote totals for House members being within about half a percent in favor of Gerrymandered and voter suppressed districts in the overall totals but my old party claimed 10 of the then 13 seats.
I suspect the half percent advantaged would have been overcome easily with fairer district boundaries and all legitimate voters being able to vote so that a fair distribution of seats would be 7 to 6, and probably in favor of Democrats.
Re: your last sentence: My cell phone often tells me "scam likely". I always let those ring, and maybe one in 20 leaves a message. Once, about 6 months ago, there was a message left from a pollster. 95% of those calls there is no message.
I’m all in on continued assistance to Ukraine. Russia will bomb them into dust if we don’t force a negotiated settlement. But there was a time when we here held sway on whether to encourage a Russian invasion. We refused to agree to not accept the chance of a new NATO member. This precipitated an invasion. Now the only importance is to make Putin pay for his folly.
Yes we included arms to Israel and I was dead set against my tax dollars going to slaughter woman and children. I understand the history and politics of the Middle East. Both our political parties have taken Jewish lobby money and we have given a green light to everything the Israelis have wanted including ethnic cleansing. The truth is hard to accept but it doesn’t make it less true, in my opinion. Man loves warfare because it validates his aggressive selfish nature.
As to the polls falling short, democracy is a messy business. We may not survive because everyone can vote regardless of intelligence. You can put a Rodes (misspelled) scholar next to a blooming idiot yet both have the same ability to vote.
To reiterate an old catch phrase, “It’s the border, stupid.” When homeland secretary Mayorkas was asked why Biden hasn’t invoked an executive order, his response was that it wouldn’t hold up in court. My God, how dense can anyone be. I don’t care about anything but winning and this arrogant response was plum foolish. My opinion.
........... "We refused to agree to not accept the chance of a new NATO member. This precipitated an invasion" You say Bill.
That is exactly Putin's reason for invading a neighbouring sovereign European nation, in a particularly brutal manner. A nation who unilaterally handed over all nuclear weapons (the only nation ever to do so) and who we swore to protect.
They didn't just want to join NATO, they wanted to join the EU and embrace the pillats of western values.
I put it to you that you are spouting Russian propaganda
I put it to you that I have an independent mind and I don’t tow anyone’s talking points. We encouraged the Ukrainian revolution against Russia. We pushed NATO east when a defacto un written agreement existed not to do so. And too, western Ukraine is or was nearly Russian in culture. I don’t care if these are anyone’s talking points. They are mine. Go find yours.
It's amazing how pure pro-Russian arguments seep into the global discourse.
That last one! Good grief, "nearly Russian in culture"!!!
Ireland is nearly English in culture, in fact only became independent from Britain in 1949. The British have far more justification for invading Ireland and bombing Dublin than Putin has to invade the Ukraine.
"Push NATO east!!! " Clearly Sweden and Finland have been conned into joining that global peacekeeping organization (which Putin says is planning to invade Moscow.
Your "talking points" echo the Kremlin.
View points that are seeping in to mainstream thought.... now, how DO they do that?
And you conveniently set aside my opening point that there is no choice but to insure a victory for Ukraine. So no, I AM NOT RUSSIAN TALKING POINTS. Sorry to disappoint you. And I almost forgot, the north americas should be British. We would be better off. (wink)
Russians forced themselves on Ukraine, overtaking the Ukrainians, who were eternally kept to the grainfields. You take some pride in the wholesale starvation of Ukrainians during the 30s I see? How many million do you think? Try Timothy Snyder's Bloodlands for a taste. You realize of course that the president of Ukraine happens to be native Russian speaking, right?
“Nearly Russian in culture?” Would that justify Mexico cleansing the inhabitants of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, California? After all, there are many Spanish-speaking inhabitants in those states, which used to be part of Mexico. Maybe Mexico would have a valid reason to want the land back?
The fact that Ukraine has sacrificed tens of thousands to remain independent tells you all you want to know about that argument. And some Ukrainian refugee families, like the one living in my home, left their culture, language, jobs, lands, families to avoid becoming part of the reconstituted Russian Empire.
Pardon me. A fund drive to give Texas back to Mexico. It belongs to them. All right Marge, so I over played it with “nearly Russian in culture.” Me bad. But my overall reaction is that every decade or so, we find another justification for war. America is the most war-like nation on earth if you haven’t noticed. I wonder where and what the next invasion will be. Maybe we can take Canada.
That idiots can vote is a real downside to democracy. As we are experiencing daily, at least in Texas. But we must try for as many sane (not cult nuts) as possible. Would hate for the Jim Jones cult nuts to have survived and gained political power. Oh, wait…
And I wonder how much FDR purposely forced the Japanese hand to attack after we placed a quarantine around Japan attempting to deprive them of oil assets. We don’t read this in our text books. After the attack, FDR got his war.
They were supposedly going to claim to be looking for survivors from a plane from what I seem to remember, and expected to be fired upon as a trigger for us to become much more actively defensive and/or offensive.
The Japanese had occupied French Indochina (July 15, 1940), when their ally, Germany, nominally got control of all of France's colonies, trust territories, etc. That seems the trigger for the oil and steel embargo responses. They had been acquiring territories like Korea as early as 1910, and intruding into China as early as 1931. Joe said they were feeling their oats after defeating what they considered a major European power , Russia, in 1905. After he was released from a Japanese labor camp, Joe would have recognized the map of all their conquests at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_territories_acquired_by_the_Empire_of_Japan
That link doesn't show Tahiti, where some local German Nazis organized a little parade assuming they would soon be in charge of the local Vichy French government. A GS13 Training specialist at the Space Systems Command and Control School where I was an Instructor Supervisor was a 15 year old at the time, who grew up in Tahiti. He said they rather quickly rained on their parade before the population formally voted to side with the Free French, though it seems there were many individuals who ended up joining allied units vs no organized Tahitian units I know of.
And yet the media keeps offering up polls showing Biden falling further and further behind TFG.
Who the hell are they polling?
Herb, honestly -- who cares? Don't believe them no matter if they show either candidate besting the other. The poll that counts is in November. Assume and act as though it will be close, and hope that it's a blue tide that sweeps over the country, up and down the ballots.
Doug, yes hope for a blue tide - but work for it too if you are able. All hands on deck on this election with postcards, texts and calls to voters, help get young people registered, donate to good candidates, etc.
Democracy is not a spectator sport. The blue tide is us. Let’s all do what we can. (If you need a place to start, www.fieldteam6.com or subscribe to Jessica Craven’s newsletter, Chop Wood, Carry Water here on Substack. )
Hi Sheila -- yes, I think I'll try Field Team 6. What I won't do is make phone calls -- I absolutely hate it when I get such calls, be they from telemarketers or political candidates. I'm willing to send post cards -- and did so 8 years ago.
As to Chop Wood, I subscribed for a while last year, but honestly, I find it exhausting and demoralizing to be constantly reminded of where we stand. I'm well aware of the present situation, and have been following politics closely since Gore v Bush. LFFA provides me with what I need, in a very balanced way, as her readers know. And of course, Joyce Vance for legal insight.
I'm with you. HCR and Joyce Vance are my daily "keep me sane" reads. I also love watching Deadline Whitehouse with Nicolle Wallace.
Doug, whatever activities suit you, do that. I made calls to help register voters last year and it was fine. But, like you, it isn’t my first choice. Postcarding in a group of friends has become a way to bring people into being more active without making them uncomfortable. It all helps. And yes to the sanity provided by LFAA, Joyce Vance and others here on Substack.
Doug, if you haven't been reading Chop Wood for a while, know that Jessica often posts long lists of the accomplishments we readers have had a hand in, or just lists of good news items. It's encouraging to read them.
Thanks Mim, maybe I will.
A blue tsunami!
I also connect to Sunrise Movement, and made phone calls with them for Summer Lee last week. It's fun to work with other people. My sister writes postcards. Usually people who are involved in climate issues are also for the working people, Medicare for All, and the betterment of all people, except the billionaires, who don't need our help!
Yes! And as a youth voter org, they may help save Biden from his own "ironclad" unconditional support of Bibi Netanyahu's vicious killing and starvation and slaughter (with US bombs) of thousands and thousands of innocent children in Gaza. Believe me, Biden seems to be out of touch in his White House Tower, but the young people today, and not just those brave students risking arrest on campuses, are Appalled by what they have seen of the blanket bombing of a people Israel is charged with providing for, that is 70% women and children. Sunrise Movement seems to avoided the fray for now.
So yes, there is SO much common ground that you find, even when calling grumpy fair weather registered voters. But we need Youth organizations to help us overcome the huge shadow of Israel's cruel bombardment, and Biden's mixed record on climate.
Not to mention the loss of abortion rights, which many young women think of as happening "on Biden's watch." Our worlds are so different now, not just because of generations, but because of our media silos.
Yes. I'm concerned about what the young people are thinking of this all happening on us oldsters' watch. I hid in a practice room during the Vietnam era, and only woke up when a colleague had to go on a starvation diet (bananas and water, only) for a month in order to avoid being sent over. And then, what happened? The banks, the oil producers, the MIC took over. You were either part of the overlord class or the servant class.
I'm sorry for the mess we are now in. But I'm also supremely grateful (and donate) to the youth organizatons helping to correct the situation.
hallelujah and Amen to all the gods and the gd ether.
Only 6 months til D-day. And you know what I hope that D means!
Yes Doug I agree!!!vote vote vote 💙💙💙💙!!!!!!!!
Yes, I definitely agree.
Check your voter registration now and be sure it's up to date. Make a plan for how you are going to vote. And make up your mind that no one will stop you from voting.
Yes! Republican "voter purge" cases have even been successful here in California. Don't assume you've been spared.
Don’t ignore, call them stupid.
Ever since our Dem Central Committee worked w the Repub Central committee last month on a State ethics bill, I've been getting emails from State Repubs. This am our wealthy State Delegate sent an email invitation to his May 5 fundraiser barbeque. It included these words for Dems: stupid, wrecking havoc, causing energy inflation, lawlessness, (and the Repubs as: fellow Patriots, like minded adults, real solutions. " I like it better if we use words that are based on facts and not name-calling. Not that I don't slip into that behavior more times than I'd like!
Dems send inane emails and mountains of them. Repubs are just lying bastards, period. I think I will donate to maddogpac.com if I can get some response from them re sharing my info. They put billboards in critical places.
Polls have never won an election people do! Vote blue. Where their party is not listed example judges check to see who nominated them. GOP or Dem. Governor or president
Don´t just hope. Organize. Create groups of like minded people and get together to vote.. to learn the issues and vote on them. The media is shaped by ´profit´... Hearst was the first big news publisher in the US. His slogan... if it ´bleeds´, it leads was what he told his reporters.. We saw history made the other day when Johnson and McConnell backed the Ukraine.. Of course, they may have recd. money from the fossil fuel companies and the arms industry.
I'd say the Oiligarchs and MIC are on the side of Putin more than Ukraine. Their goal is to dismantle government so they can continue to pillage.
I think public perception based on polling does matter and impacts voting behavior.
Hillary was the 75% favorite.
No. They are not offering polls that have him falling "further and further behind." Perhaps on Earth II, but not here. As a matter of fact, what has happened with the most recent polls is they show Biden has raised his percentages to the point that any "lead" by Trump is well within the margin of error. What that means is kwitchurbitchin and go to work on the many projects that are working to build voter participation. As my old boss Willie Brown said, run like you're 10 points down till election day and don't worry about the polls and you can pop champagne after the polls close.
A reminder that Democrats have the power to sweep by registering people currently not on the voting rolls and not polled. 60% of unregistered voters have never been asked to register. To win in 2024, FT6 will reach out to "millions of unregistered likely Democrats using our one-of-a-kind database and every outreach method possible (phone and text, postcard, email and targeted ad, and in-person too), where new Democratic voters will make the most impact – in the most flippable states and districts." https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Also, Focus for Democracy's informational meeting for the 2024 election cycle is tonight,
Thursday, April 25th at 8PM Eastern/5PM Pacific.
Please click here to register:
http://tinyurl.com/F4D25Apr
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_UtpJ-xyoR4SOBM_8IdUwlQ?_x_zm_rtaid=S3K6ygDfTu2DU-HFUDhIGw.1714035204062.e239549e9872e2e88636fc040b62b627&_x_zm_rhtaid=92#/registration
Good points Daniel. (Taylor Swift, please continue your efforts to register voters.)
We also need to overcome all of the gaslighting by Trump, the maganazis and the white faux-Christian nationalists.
They are still hammering on the border, when Trump's wall is like a sieve and inflation which has come down to around 3% and gasoline prices which we have kept arbitrarily low for over 75 years with subsidies to the oil/gas/coal industries.
Swifties can comment on Instagram and X and attach https://www.fieldteam6.org/voterizer
Daniel, thanks so much for the links! I’ve registered.
Kudos on this, Daniel. Team 6 sounds like an energized nuts and bolts organization, and not alone in their efforts.
I like the word “SWEEP”! That is what we must aim for! Think of all the wrongs we can fix with a SWEEP! Vote Blue!
Registered, Daniel. Thank you.
When he was about 8, my son swam the backstroke on the local swim team. At an early Saturday morning meet, he was in the last heat of his age group, 25 yards. He won the race with several lengths to spare and earned an “A” time. When his coach asked him about the race, he said he thought he was in last place because when he looked to either side he didn’t see another swimmer. Very proudly, his coach said, “I want you to swim like you’re in last place from now on.” He didn’t swim much longer after that, but I think he took the coach’s advice when he became a very skilled lacrosse player and play for nearly the next 20 years.
Good old Willie sounds like my high school cross country coach: Run until you're ten yards past the finish.
Given your experience with Willie Brown, I’d be interested in your impressions of Kamala Harris.
I think she's pretty good. I was a supporter when she announced she was running for president. I think four years as VP has allowed her to learn what she didn't know before. If anything ever happened to Biden I think she could take over and the Republicans would find out all their BS about her was just that.
Hopefully Kamala will have 4 more years to mature & formulate policy for another presidential run.
Thanks. My impression, which goes back quite a ways, was that she was a machine politician, more or less in the neo-lib category. Your comments are reassuring, in that I generally respect your judgment.
She may have started that way (being in SF), but I don't think she is now.
Yup, again. You never told me about W.B. He is the master, and I loved his hats. He's looking good as ever, for 90 years. I wish he would get in it again.
Ah, you must watch Nicolle Wallace with the "Earth II" reference.
I do indeed.
Best advice ever! Thank you!
Trump's reelection is in deep trouble due to these issues. Biden's smart foreign policy makes America look better globally, undercutting Trump's image as a strong leader. Plus, the indictment of Trump allies in Arizona damages his reputation, highlighting concerns about his honesty and commitment to democracy. Biden's steady leadership contrasts sharply with Trump's chaotic style, hurting Trump's chances with voters. Oh, and I forgot to mention ROE V WADE.... Trump is finished.
Michael Corthell - "Trump's reelection is in deep trouble due to these issues. "
“𝑇𝑟𝑢𝑚𝑝 𝑖𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑢𝑠 𝑠𝑜 𝑚𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑑𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟.” --Nicolle Wallace
Wallace, then, asked former Republican National Committee chair Michael Steele if voters will start to realize Trump is debasing them.
“𝑊𝑒𝑙𝑙, 𝐼 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑘 𝑠𝑜𝑚𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑓𝑒𝑙𝑡 𝑖𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑒. 𝐿𝑜𝑜𝑘, 𝑛𝑜 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦’𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑑 𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑟. 𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑓𝑒𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑦 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑦𝑜𝑢 ℎ𝑎𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑦, 𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠, 𝑛𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑠, 𝑐𝑜𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑡𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑦𝑜𝑢, ‘𝑌𝑜𝑢 𝑘𝑛𝑜𝑤 𝑦𝑜𝑢’𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑦𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡?’
𝑇𝑟𝑢𝑚𝑝’𝑠 𝑀.𝑂. 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑘𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔, 𝑓𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑏𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑠 𝑚𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑎𝑠 ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒, 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑛𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑒, 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑦𝑜𝑢 𝑎𝑛𝑥𝑖𝑜𝑢𝑠, 𝑚𝑎𝑘𝑒 𝑦𝑜𝑢 𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑟𝑦 𝑠𝑜 𝑦𝑜𝑢 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑡𝑜 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑘 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡, ‘𝑊ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑎𝑚 𝐼 𝑠𝑜 𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑟𝑦 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡?’” --Michael Steele
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0vDorbk_f0
You're right, Biden and Dems, rate much higher trust scores internationally these days, allowing for places like Iran, China ...
They are polling the people who don't know what you have just read.
Could be most people?
Share this letter every day. I post it in comments on Fox, et al and tag every MAGAt I can think of. I also share it on comments of far Freedom Caucus members.
Might be a losing battle but if the media won't report it I will.
Be a "troll for the good of the nation" lol. Even Trump watches (or did) MSNBC / CNN for his own perverse intel. And maybe get a more realistic picture these days of the "writing on the wall". Trump is a master of Agitprop (1984 wasn't so far-fetched at all, Orwell had only to check out Goebbels' masterful use of hateful propaganda and aggrievement for raw material - not to mention the Soviets) Big lies often repeated with opposition voices stymied and silenced work wonders on large populations. Check out Russia China North Korea today.
I do much the same with several authors. What’s interesting to me is the level of, dare I say, intelligent responses from readers who follow HRC and others of her ilk and those who have drunk the koolaid. I learn so much from this camp, and from the koolaid group? Not so much. It’s really a great example of how deeply repeated lies have sunk in with a part of our country.
That's an interesting comment, Lynn. It mirrors my own experience; when I share writers like Jim Wright or Professor RIchardson, the "rebuttal" comments are either really intellectual "nu-huh" or "I don't believe that" or some of the deepest candy-coated mansplaining I have ever read.
Ally, however, it’s been proven that, if a group hears the same information over and over again, some will believe it (regardless of its truthfulness). Perhaps some tiny nugget of what we share will strike home and cause them to think “I know that “nugget” is true. What if the other stuff is true as well?”
Mary, in the small cohort (mostly retired local cops from multiple agencies; we all worked together on calls at various times) that this represents, most of the folks leaning my way (almost all of us women) have stopped engaging. I can only take so much candycoated mansplaining from these guys, and several others have stopped engaging with them all together.
Ah, Ally, I bet you get some really deep mansplaining. Our neighbor falls into that now and then although he has been better lately. But his going to instruct the little woman turns into a change in voice tone and facial expression. He had a really hard time around his back surgery (on his 80th birthday no less) and has become a little nicer.....maybe thought he was having a brush with death. Funny, how that can change peoples' perspective.
You've seen some of it.
That is so true, Lynn. I get such valuable intelligent information from HCR's commenters versus the ignorant nasty name-calling lie based bull I get from the other side.
Christopher, just ran into someone who didn’t know that corporations with profits of over a billion dollars per year now have to pay 15% taxes (instead of zero) on those profits.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/hopium-in-the-nytimes-16-polls-show?r=etfs&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Yup.
ditto! I'm with Simon!
Forget about the "candidates." The election is not Biden vs Trump. The election is democracy vs fascism.
Also:
People don't want to vote for democracy (Biden) because they think Biden is not trying to help the Palestinians? Do they already forget Trump's Middle East policy, bought and paid for by Sheldon Adelson? If fascism wins in November, Bibi NaziYahoo will feel perfectly free to commence the Palestinian Final Solution. There is no "I'm not voting for the lesser of two evils." You're either voting for less evil or more evil. Not voting for less evil IS voting for more evil. And in a 2nd and last term, democracy can treat Bibi NaziYahoo as he deserves to be treated. If one does not get this, one is not nearly as "woke" as Little Ronnie InSanitis accuses one of being.
Bibi Netanyahu is a thug. That is not an anti-Semitic statement. He is our Trump and he needs to go, as does Trump.
Bibi Hibi Jibi won't go on his own. We have to make him go.
Biden can't/won't make Bibi go in this term.
But Biden can/will make Bibi go in Biden's 2nd term.
Why not now? Research who contributes disproportionately to BOTH Democratic and Republican campaigns. Money talks.
I'm not saying, Give more to Joe's campaign.
I'm saying, let Joe know that he wins your vote, and let Democratic Senators and candidates and ESPECIALLY Democratic Congresspeople and candidates (And Republicans too, don't forget.) that they will get your vote ONLY if Bibi goes.
Now, don't forget: Bibi will likely be replaced by someone worse. But that Joe makes Bibi go will transmit a powerful message to any of Bibi's likely successors: Don't count on the US President to back you up, to write you a blank check, as the US Congress has done for Israel for the past 76 years. Oh, the check may be blank. But there will be nowhere on that check where you can just fill in the amount you like. In fact, it won't be a check. It will be checkmate.
So true
I’ve tried arguing that to the people who post that they won’t vote for Biden due to Gaza. I will do that over and over again. Counter the Big Lie with the Big Truth!
Keep trying that argument. What matters is not how many people agree with you. What matters is that you keep trying, and that some people may agree with you. For all the difference in the "popular" vote in the 2016 and 2020 elections, the truth is, Hillary Clinton lost in the Electoral College (Hint, Hillary: The Presidential Election is NOT decided by a 3 million vote margin in California. Ask Bill: He knows this. He told you this.) on the basis of well less than 100,000 popular votes, which were enough to tip enough states in Trump's favor. In turn, Trump lost to Biden by well less than 100,000 votes in pretty much the same states that elected Trump in 2016. Biden's 7 million popular vote "advantage" meant DOODLEY SQUAT. And there is NO reason to believe the 2024 Presidential Election will be any different than the 2016 and 2020 Presidential Elections. In fact, any Presidential Election can be decided by as few as a couple of hundred votes. Ask George W. Bush and Al Gore about this. So Marge, you know what to do. Keep doing it. And tell others to keep doing it, too. Thank you. Robert
Herb, may be the better question should be who are they NOT polling - and why aren’t they polling those people?
But I refer you to Simon Rosenberg’s “Hopium Chronicles” …. this is the professor’s (HCR) principal source regarding polling. Ooohhh and see David Lehnherr’s comment and link above.
How many people answer their phone when it rings? How many look to see who is calling? How many don't pick it up if they don't recognize the caller? What benefit do I get when someone causes my phone to ring?
We both have mobile phones. We also have retained a VOIP line, the number for which was my phone when I moved here in '95. We have it set so that it only rings when my phone or her phone originates the call. The rest go to voicemail. We listen to the voicemails in email. The percentage of legit calls is very small.
We don't give much credence to polling data.
Lately the PACs have been calling. I asked the firefighter's PAC if any of my donation would go to Republicans. He immediately answered, "I'll put you on the do not call list." Another PAC, supposedly to help disabled children lobby politicians, replied that they were non-partisan. This means, yeah we give money to Republicans to help get them elected and re-elected.
I hate PACs. They spend 25-30% of their money paying callers to bilk us out of money to re-elect Republicans. If you're going to give to a charity, give to the charity, not to a frickin' PAC.
Yep, direct to the charity. Politics aside, charities often if not mostly used third-party solicitation agencies, who take 1/3 or so of the take, and that turns out to be a significant chunk of charity income.
Spot on David. Polls to me are the 'fourth' type of lies; "Lies, damn lies, statistics, and polls."
Polls have a history of interesting misses, it is difficult to get a statistically valid random sample esp in small populations and not just them, due to various accessibility challenges.
Me too. Cynicism breeds apathy which is exactly what dictators want.
Kinda reminds me of the advertising industry at large. How much of that tv 4 minute plus advert space on eg MSNBC do you want? Me - about zero. Oh if i can only fast forward quickly enough to get past before that godawful "Liberty liberty" dingaline song starts. Yes, I pre record almost all programming I'm interested in. OR, pick up ad free summaries on Youtube. And turn on ad blocking much as possible.
Frank, you can laugh at this; I do. I like commercials because every time they come on I get up, leave the room and do dishes, Landry, etc. I’m pretty immobile due to arthritis and chronic pain but because of those commercials I am able to get in 5000 steps per day! LOL. Don’t tell the advertisers that I never watch any of their ads!
Marge, that is exactly how I did things, "back when", sometimes even now. Good way to get steps in for sure! I won't spill the beans!
I can definitely relate to that!
And Simon does his research.
Is that really true? I can’t believe it. It seems to me Trump has lost a great deal of his power and allure lately.
No, that's not really true. The opposite is true. Biden has moved up in the polls and cut any "leads" - all the of the polls to date have been put out for clickbait by a MSM desperate to attract eyeballs so the intergalactic widgetmakers who own them can sell them. They have ALL been within the margin of error. Stop worrying about the nonexistent horse race. Get involved and work to get people out to vote.
colorful rhetoric TC, all in agreement here.
Annie, I'm sitting on my back porch in North Carolina, watching the sun rise, listening to the birds converse with one another, enjoying the sun- kissed and dew-dropped flowers in my yard.
For the first time in eight years, I can sit here with hope that Donald Trump will one day see the sun rise through a prison window.
Thanks to all those who are making an effort to encourage people to vote- not for a criminal, but for a man who has tried to save the workings of our government from MAGA crazies who only want to save themselves.
As an ex-Tar Heelie I have hope. But the Dems need to pound the truth about Repubs rejecting immigration reform. Unreal.
Ain't it the truth?
So sad, so true. My ex-home was in the Piedmont. Had a back porch too. Enjoy
I was going to ask you where in NC you lived. I'm in southeastern NC about an hour from the beach.
If I don't take time to sit in the swing on the porch and relax my mind, I would stay angry and disillusioned all the time because of all the times and ways that Trump has slipped through the cracks of accountability.
Being angry is not good for one's health.🙂
I do not believe he will see the inside of a cell.
Marj, I thought that for a long time, but I see enough people coming forward to help ensure that he will pay for his crimes. Ironically, he won't be able to "pay" his way out of these charges.
I am not so sure. Harvey Weinstein just bought himself an appeal.
I'm sorry to hear that.
If I don't have SOME hope that he will be found guilty, my well-being will not be so well.
Marj, at the risk of making the problem even more difficult, having that creature in a cage is only part of an optimal solution. Its confinement should also have the restriction of being held effectively incommunicado. And the thing's friends (if any) and lawyers (if any) should also be in jeopardy if they pass any kind of communication from the incarcerated criminal. Its conviction and incarceration should not be viewed as punishment, but as rendering the thing harmless to society, for the sake of society.
Love your use of “the thing.” Thanks for that! Reminds me of all those old horror movies: The Thing that devoured Cleveland, etc.
I certainly hope so. What an ugly little guy he is.
Let them blather on. Let’s vote. The media and the pollsters don’t dictate reality. Make our voices count at the polling booth. Let’s show the bought for profit naysayers how strong we are.
Herb,
I stopped believing the polls. I am focused on voting for President Joe Biden, for the people of the USA (whether they like Joe or not) , for our future, for peace and unity and productivity throughout the world. Joe and his amazing team are doing this....even in the midst of "hell" all around us!!! President Biden is focused on "Building Back Better", "Team Biden" is working on bringing people together while working against various systems meant to destroy....be it human or human creations meant to kill, cause conflict or destroy mind or body.
Perfect...NO....but better.
And...on the side....Israel needs a decent leader. The answer to this problem must come from the people of Israel. The college campus chaos is a response to Netanyahu's desire to destroy the Palestinians and take Gaza for himself.
Through the years some Israeli citizens have chosen to build homes on land that legally, in modern society, belongs to Palestine. These Israelis have chosen to look to ancient law, not modern law and decisions made regarding land set aside for Israel and for Palestine. In my opinion this has created problems over many years and has created groups that have chosen violence to address this issue. Gaza remains an open wound for Israel and for Palestine. Meanwhile, there are human beings starving and dying due to their existence in Palestine....their home. This is a great wrong and many will suffer if it is not addressed. "World Kitchen" tried to help and look what happened to them. Food and care remain a need for the Palestinian people.
President Biden is in a difficult position politically. We must trust him and his advisers.
I understand college students speaking out and they should have that right BUT peacefully.
Emily,
I also support the students right to protest, but I don't understand the response of the university administration to call in the riot squad. They should recognize the students right to protest, but set up some rules going forward. There should be a peaceful way
to respect everyone's beliefs. Perhaps choosing a representative for each side to discuss concerns, respectfully. This would be respectful of the students feelings of helplessness and the administrations frustration at the disruption and unsightly tent city set up on their beautiful lawn. In rereading this, I guess the key word here is respect on both sides and ignore the outside noise. You are a school, dammit, teach these young kids how to protest!
Sadly, I think kids have to rebel against what they have been taught at a certain stage in developing their independence and sense of self. Ruthlessly suppressing that only feeds the rebellion.
I've noticed that over the past several years, polls have been used to shape public opinion rather than gauge it. Every major nationwide poll I am aware of since 2016 has been wrong; predicting a Clinton win in 2016, missing the size of the 2018 blue wave, a Trump win in 2020, a 'red wave' in 2022, and now a neck-and-neck race in 2024.
I do not know what has happened to polling science, but it clearly is not able to accurately predict much of anything. It also seems to have, at least in part, become a partisan tool for certain interests. This also seems to be eroding its accuracy and credibility. The best indicator for how the general election will go in November are the special elections and referenda in various states, in which actual voters voted for actual candidates/issues. Almost all of these broke heavily for the Democrats.
Interesting thought, Steve. I don't know much about the history of polls, but I know that the technology (most people I know won't answer a phone unless they know the number, and will let unfamiliar numbers leave a voicemail) coupled with your observation of eroding accuracy and credibility means that a very, very small percentage of people are responding to these calls.
Think about all of the last elections. When Obama first ran, they were expecting McCain to win. I hate these blow by blow election game night coverage. Noone expected results until morning. So I went to bed. And was very surprised to be awakened by many in DC shouting, "Yes, We did." Turned on the TV to see the celebration in Chicago's Grant Park. Four years later, media wrongly predicted Romney would win. Didn't happen. Then there was the debacle of Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote by literally millions but losing via electoral college. Then another close election in which Biden won and Trump Still purports the election was stolen. Not sure in our cell phone era who pollsters even find to survey.
The Electoral College seems the huge bug in the room, my old party put huge effort into finding recruits for any and every local state, and national office the could pick up. It seemed they liked finding cheaper senators in some small states as a key to national power, as well as a major effort to install governors and judges.
Though both parties do some Gerrymandering, my old party seems to have become particularly venal in Gerrymandering and voter suppression through corrupt voter verification and false challenges. I dug a bit deeper in North Carolina's amazing popular vote totals for House members being within about half a percent in favor of Gerrymandered and voter suppressed districts in the overall totals but my old party claimed 10 of the then 13 seats.
I suspect the half percent advantaged would have been overcome easily with fairer district boundaries and all legitimate voters being able to vote so that a fair distribution of seats would be 7 to 6, and probably in favor of Democrats.
Re: your last sentence: My cell phone often tells me "scam likely". I always let those ring, and maybe one in 20 leaves a message. Once, about 6 months ago, there was a message left from a pollster. 95% of those calls there is no message.
Maybe they are polling the young people who do not accept Biden funding genocide.
I’m all in on continued assistance to Ukraine. Russia will bomb them into dust if we don’t force a negotiated settlement. But there was a time when we here held sway on whether to encourage a Russian invasion. We refused to agree to not accept the chance of a new NATO member. This precipitated an invasion. Now the only importance is to make Putin pay for his folly.
Yes we included arms to Israel and I was dead set against my tax dollars going to slaughter woman and children. I understand the history and politics of the Middle East. Both our political parties have taken Jewish lobby money and we have given a green light to everything the Israelis have wanted including ethnic cleansing. The truth is hard to accept but it doesn’t make it less true, in my opinion. Man loves warfare because it validates his aggressive selfish nature.
As to the polls falling short, democracy is a messy business. We may not survive because everyone can vote regardless of intelligence. You can put a Rodes (misspelled) scholar next to a blooming idiot yet both have the same ability to vote.
To reiterate an old catch phrase, “It’s the border, stupid.” When homeland secretary Mayorkas was asked why Biden hasn’t invoked an executive order, his response was that it wouldn’t hold up in court. My God, how dense can anyone be. I don’t care about anything but winning and this arrogant response was plum foolish. My opinion.
Now, let me return to some shut eye.
........... "We refused to agree to not accept the chance of a new NATO member. This precipitated an invasion" You say Bill.
That is exactly Putin's reason for invading a neighbouring sovereign European nation, in a particularly brutal manner. A nation who unilaterally handed over all nuclear weapons (the only nation ever to do so) and who we swore to protect.
They didn't just want to join NATO, they wanted to join the EU and embrace the pillats of western values.
I put it to you that you are spouting Russian propaganda
I put it to you that I have an independent mind and I don’t tow anyone’s talking points. We encouraged the Ukrainian revolution against Russia. We pushed NATO east when a defacto un written agreement existed not to do so. And too, western Ukraine is or was nearly Russian in culture. I don’t care if these are anyone’s talking points. They are mine. Go find yours.
It's amazing how pure pro-Russian arguments seep into the global discourse.
That last one! Good grief, "nearly Russian in culture"!!!
Ireland is nearly English in culture, in fact only became independent from Britain in 1949. The British have far more justification for invading Ireland and bombing Dublin than Putin has to invade the Ukraine.
"Push NATO east!!! " Clearly Sweden and Finland have been conned into joining that global peacekeeping organization (which Putin says is planning to invade Moscow.
Your "talking points" echo the Kremlin.
View points that are seeping in to mainstream thought.... now, how DO they do that?
And you conveniently set aside my opening point that there is no choice but to insure a victory for Ukraine. So no, I AM NOT RUSSIAN TALKING POINTS. Sorry to disappoint you. And I almost forgot, the north americas should be British. We would be better off. (wink)
Russians forced themselves on Ukraine, overtaking the Ukrainians, who were eternally kept to the grainfields. You take some pride in the wholesale starvation of Ukrainians during the 30s I see? How many million do you think? Try Timothy Snyder's Bloodlands for a taste. You realize of course that the president of Ukraine happens to be native Russian speaking, right?
Did we push NATO east or did those former Soviet satellites see a better life? Perhaps you might read Red Famine.
“Nearly Russian in culture?” Would that justify Mexico cleansing the inhabitants of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, California? After all, there are many Spanish-speaking inhabitants in those states, which used to be part of Mexico. Maybe Mexico would have a valid reason to want the land back?
The fact that Ukraine has sacrificed tens of thousands to remain independent tells you all you want to know about that argument. And some Ukrainian refugee families, like the one living in my home, left their culture, language, jobs, lands, families to avoid becoming part of the reconstituted Russian Empire.
Pardon me. A fund drive to give Texas back to Mexico. It belongs to them. All right Marge, so I over played it with “nearly Russian in culture.” Me bad. But my overall reaction is that every decade or so, we find another justification for war. America is the most war-like nation on earth if you haven’t noticed. I wonder where and what the next invasion will be. Maybe we can take Canada.
I sadly must agree about our warlike history. But let’s not take Canada. Canada is my safe house if we end up having a civil war here!
That idiots can vote is a real downside to democracy. As we are experiencing daily, at least in Texas. But we must try for as many sane (not cult nuts) as possible. Would hate for the Jim Jones cult nuts to have survived and gained political power. Oh, wait…
Interesting comments, Bill, not that I agree everywhere, and entertaining as well.
It is complicated and it seems many Ukrainians shifted attitudes when attacked, to me much like our America First types until Pearl Harbor.
And I wonder how much FDR purposely forced the Japanese hand to attack after we placed a quarantine around Japan attempting to deprive them of oil assets. We don’t read this in our text books. After the attack, FDR got his war.
He was trying to force the inevitable even earlier according to my mentor Cpl Joe Bak who was surrendered at Corregidor. He pointed me to the story of the Lanikai as described at https://wavetrain.net/2010/12/04/cruise-of-the-lanikai-fdrs-sacrificial-lamb/
They were supposedly going to claim to be looking for survivors from a plane from what I seem to remember, and expected to be fired upon as a trigger for us to become much more actively defensive and/or offensive.
The Japanese had occupied French Indochina (July 15, 1940), when their ally, Germany, nominally got control of all of France's colonies, trust territories, etc. That seems the trigger for the oil and steel embargo responses. They had been acquiring territories like Korea as early as 1910, and intruding into China as early as 1931. Joe said they were feeling their oats after defeating what they considered a major European power , Russia, in 1905. After he was released from a Japanese labor camp, Joe would have recognized the map of all their conquests at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_territories_acquired_by_the_Empire_of_Japan
That link doesn't show Tahiti, where some local German Nazis organized a little parade assuming they would soon be in charge of the local Vichy French government. A GS13 Training specialist at the Space Systems Command and Control School where I was an Instructor Supervisor was a 15 year old at the time, who grew up in Tahiti. He said they rather quickly rained on their parade before the population formally voted to side with the Free French, though it seems there were many individuals who ended up joining allied units vs no organized Tahitian units I know of.
I wouldn't put to much judgment in the media. Polls change constantly.
Selective Herb.
Simon Rosenberg is does a good job, well tesearched.
Maybe but it’s healthy to consider all sides.